Article: Three-Bagger: Mauer's Decline, Morneau's Woes & Dozier's Pop

[tobi0040]

 

If this was even in the plans you would assume they would shift Sano and at least give him some defensive innings in AA at 1B.  I really see no way they continue to play him at 3B and then bring him with no reps at 1B.

 

Agreed.  It is not in the plans.  I think Joe needs to be in the sub .700 OPS range for another 12-18 months before the Twins even take 25% of his reps.

[Willihammer]

There has been some at-bats recently where there is a man on and Mauer is hacking at pitches in even or hitter-counts and then asking the umpire immediately afterward if it was a strike. I think there might be a conflict with the team asking him to be a run producer and Mauer's ongoing attempt to figure out the expanded strike zone. I wonder how much simply bumping him up in the order and asking him to a run SCORER would change things.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There has been some at-bats recently where there is a man on and Mauer is hacking at pitches in even or hitter-counts and then asking the umpire immediately afterward if it was a strike. I think there might be a conflict with the team asking him to be a run producer and Mauer's ongoing attempt to figure out the expanded strike zone. I wonder how much simply bumping him up in the order and asking him to a run SCORER would change things.

It's possible. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Molitor put Joe in the second spot and tell him "just get on damned base and let the guys behind you take care of the rest". That's what Joe is best at, after all.

[Linus]

I do think moving him up in the order might fit his OBP mindset.  Even that is not what it once was but probably more doable in the short term.

 

Dozier's the best hitter on the club right now and it ain't even close.  Swap he and Joe and let's see what happens.

[jimbo92107]

I like Tom Brunansky, but I think he may have blundered in his approach to trying to get Joe Mauer's power game amped up.

 

Mauer perfected his inside-out slashing stroke and used it for years, letting the ball get deep in the zone and hitting curved drives to left field.

 

There's a big difference between Mauer's most grooved stroke and the one he and Bruno have been trying to develop. If you look at a premiere power hitter like Toronto's Jose Bautista, he meets the ball a full two feet farther in front than Mauer does. But the most important thing is the weight shift. Bautista takes a pronounced stride forward into the ball, where Mauer keeps his weight back, just pivoting his front foot. The result is, when Mauer tries to meet the ball farther in front to pull it, his bat head rises too much, topping it, where Bautista's bat is carrying smoothly forward through the zone, catching the ball flush.

 

In other words, for Mauer to pull the ball consistently with power, he'd have to develop a pronounced forward stride, a completely different thing for him. I'm not saying he can't do it, but right now clearly it's not working. Also it appears that Mauer reverts to his normal approach when runners are in scoring position. In "RISP mode," Joe looks remarkably like his former self, albeit with a bit less power.

 

Could be that Mauer's problem isn't so much concussion related as it is a mistake in training. He simply needs to learn a different swing than he's used to, and that includes a definite forward stride. Otherwise, he'll just keep topping balls to the second baseman when he tries to pull it.

 

I remember how coaches like to say, "Keep your weight back, kid." Yeah, keep your weight back, if you don't want to hit home runs like Jose Bautista. Big home run hitters all have a very pronounced weight shift into the ball. They also know how to keep the bat cocked until the last instant, then snap their wrists really hard.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is a "thing" for older players that are losing their ability to try to pull the ball for more power. Perhaps it is as simple as age. Perhaps not.

 

I do feel that he should be moved from catcher sooner rather than later, because if it is the concussions, Joe and the Twins robbed him of several years of effectiveness by not moving him before they did. And I felt that way before all this, before the last concussions at catcher.

[zchrz]

 

I like Tom Brunansky, but I think he may have blundered in his approach to trying to get Joe Mauer's power game amped up.

 

Mauer perfected his inside-out slashing stroke and used it for years, letting the ball get deep in the zone and hitting curved drives to left field.

 

There's a big difference between Mauer's most grooved stroke and the one he and Bruno have been trying to develop. If you look at a premiere power hitter like Toronto's Jose Bautista, he meets the ball a full two feet farther in front than Mauer does. But the most important thing is the weight shift. Bautista takes a pronounced stride forward into the ball, where Mauer keeps his weight back, just pivoting his front foot. The result is, when Mauer tries to meet the ball farther in front to pull it, his bat head rises too much, topping it, where Bautista's bat is carrying smoothly forward through the zone, catching the ball flush.

 

In other words, for Mauer to pull the ball consistently with power, he'd have to develop a pronounced forward stride, a completely different thing for him. I'm not saying he can't do it, but right now clearly it's not working. Also it appears that Mauer reverts to his normal approach when runners are in scoring position. In "RISP mode," Joe looks remarkably like his former self, albeit with a bit less power.

 

Could be that Mauer's problem isn't so much concussion related as it is a mistake in training. He simply needs to learn a different swing than he's used to, and that includes a definite forward stride. Otherwise, he'll just keep topping balls to the second baseman when he tries to pull it.

 

I remember how coaches like to say, "Keep your weight back, kid." Yeah, keep your weight back, if you don't want to hit home runs like Jose Bautista. Big home run hitters all have a very pronounced weight shift into the ball. They also know how to keep the bat cocked until the last instant, then snap their wrists really hard.

 

It also doesn't help that he has such a flat swing.  The pull power guys generally have some uppercut to their swing to put backspin and loft on the ball, Mauer has made his career (hell look at the quickswing) on staying very level and shooting lasers with solid contact instead of moon shots.

 

I say bat him lead off or 2nd and hope the decreased plate vision and discipline are a result of trying to be more aggressive. 

[jimbo92107]

 

I think it is a "thing" for older players that are losing their ability to try to pull the ball for more power. Perhaps it is as simple as age. Perhaps not.

 

I do feel that he should be moved from catcher sooner rather than later, because if it is the concussions, Joe and the Twins robbed him of several years of effectiveness by not moving him before they did. And I felt that way before all this, before the last concussions at catcher.

This is why Bryce Harper was shifted to the outfield. He could have been a great catcher, but this way, he'll last a lot longer. 20/20 hindsight for the Twins.

[tobi0040]

 

It's possible. I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Molitor put Joe in the second spot and tell him "just get on damned base and let the guys behind you take care of the rest". That's what Joe is best at, after all.

 

Completely agree. The .321 OBP is pretty telling. 

[Platoon]

Dozier has become the new face of the Twins. Exciting young player. Not sure there is a better overall 2B. I feel so bad for Morneau and his family--and that is all of us Twins fans. I was so hoping he was over his concussion issues, but I am afraid he has to retire so he gets a full life of being a husband and dad.

 

Mauer is the enigma. Good guy who was so easy to like when he produced, but in the business of baseball what have you done for me lately? And if you aren't doing much lately--to earn even a third of your salary--we have to do what is best for the team. I think that is moving him back to catcher, especially with Suzuki struggling and Pinto showing signs of being another AAAA player. If he gets concussed again, the Twins collect on their insurance for his salary and move in one of our young studs. If he stays healthy and continues with his current numbers, he is still grossly overpaid but not nearly as much as a 1B. I realize this may not happen until he has a spring training as a C, but for the good of the team I feel this is best. If Joe is worried about possible concussions, he has to consider summer fishing with Morneau listening to Twins games on the boat.

. I was not in favor of signing Suzuki from the very beginning. There might be no bigger Suzuki disliker (is that a word) than I! And your analysis that Mauer is still a superior catcher is likely very accurate. But the scenario where Mauer returns to catching, and meh, if he gets concussed again we can just collect the insurance, is at best unconscionable. One could hypothesize, and suggest if Mauer's health was of that import, he should just retire. Or the Twins should release him and pay his salary. Neither are going to happen. A deal is a deal. And a bad deal, is still a deal!

[troyhobbs]

 

Eh, I don't think that's the case. He was very productive in 2010, 2012, and 2013. Hell, he was even somewhat productive in 2014.

 

When compared to the likes of Barry Zito and Ryan Howard (amongst many others), Joe is a veritable productivity machine despite all the issues he's having later in the contract. Mauer has posted an rWAR of 18.8 from 2010 through today.

You're right, that was a bit excessive but with the injuries and underperformance he may be in the conversation if the next few years don't show improvement. It sucks to bash Joe because if he was making like $8 million a year we'd all be stoked with what he's doing but that contract makes him a huge target, as it should. If the Twins could creatively move him somehow it might be the best thing for the franchise, unfortunately.  

[Thegrin]

I wish the Pohlads would work a deal with Mauer, so that he could retire and become a part owner of the Twins.  This way Mauer could leave gracefully while his Hall of Fame credentials are still partially intact.  

[birddog]

Twins are a very loyal organization, almost to a fault. If they don't move Mauer to catcher, I hope they at least think about moving him to the OF. I think Plouffe is anchored at 3B now that he has become a good defender and I don't see Sano patrolling the OF. At $23 million per, I don't see the Twins eating his salary--for a few months maybe, but not for 3 years.

 

He is a good enough athlete where moving him to the least demanding offensive position is a win/win situation. Catcher is the least demanding, and although outfielders are expected to hit, more is expected of 1B so his low productivity screams for change. I loved watching Joe in his prime, but these past 4 years have taken its toll on fans. Keeping the status quo could turn mutinous. I'm sure the players love Joe, but if they really want to win they want the players who give them the best shot of winning at each position. Dozier is the new face of the Twins. At the very least, move him and Dozier in the order as this isn't Joe's team any more. 

[Blackjack]

They -- won't -- be -- moving -- him -- back -- to -- catcher.

 

Take that to the bank.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They -- won't -- be -- moving -- him -- back -- to -- catcher.

 

Take that to the bank.

Agreed. Just hearing that proposed makes me want to shut down the board because I just can't even.

 

Joe Mauer suffered a serious brain injury. He will not return to catching. Full stop.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Twins are a very loyal organization, almost to a fault. If they don't move Mauer to catcher, I hope they at least think about moving him to the OF. I think Plouffe is anchored at 3B now that he has become a good defender and I don't see Sano patrolling the OF. At $23 million per, I don't see the Twins eating his salary--for a few months maybe, but not for 3 years.

 

He is a good enough athlete where moving him to the least demanding offensive position is a win/win situation. Catcher is the least demanding, and although outfielders are expected to hit, more is expected of 1B so his low productivity screams for change. I loved watching Joe in his prime, but these past 4 years have taken its toll on fans. Keeping the status quo could turn mutinous. I'm sure the players love Joe, but if they really want to win they want the players who give them the best shot of winning at each position. Dozier is the new face of the Twins. At the very least, move him and Dozier in the order as this isn't Joe's team any more. 

 

They've already spent the 23 million......whether he plays or not. Are they willing to acknowledge that sunk costs are not how you make decisions about the future, or not? I would bet not, but I'm not going to pre-judge them on something that hasn't happened.

 

Because in a year or so, Kepler or Vargas or Sano could be better.....

 

Ya, Joe will never catch again.

[SwainZag]

 

They've already spent the 23 million......whether he plays or not. Are they willing to acknowledge that sunk costs are not how you make decisions about the future, or not? I would bet not, but I'm not going to pre-judge them on something that hasn't happened.

 

Because in a year or so, Kepler or Vargas or Sano could be better.....

 

Ya, Joe will never catch again.

 

At this point I think you make that decision when Kepler, Vargas and Sano are all pushing their way into the lineup for AB's.  As of right now Vargas isn't hitting, Sano has never played 1B and Kepler is still in AA.

 

The only sunk cost is Mauer's salary this season.  The $23M per for 2016, 2017 and 2018 are 100% guaranteed future costs.  Mauer's OPS+ of 90 this year could be a whole lot worse for all the talk of getting benched and flat out retiring.

[Steven Buhr]

 

He is a good enough athlete where moving him to the least demanding offensive position is a win/win situation. Catcher is the least demanding,

Ya kinda lost me right there. Not sure anyone who has ever put on the tools of ignorance and got behind the plate to catch more than bullpens or BP would agree it's the least demanding position.

[Mike Sixel]

 

At this point I think you make that decision when Kepler, Vargas and Sano are all pushing their way into the lineup for AB's.  As of right now Vargas isn't hitting, Sano has never played 1B and Kepler is still in AA.

 

The only sunk cost is Mauer's salary this season.  The $23M per for 2016, 2017 and 2018 are 100% guaranteed future costs.  Mauer's OPS+ of 90 this year could be a whole lot worse for all the talk of getting benched and flat out retiring.

 

he has a negative WAR on offense since the beginning of 2014, only 2 are worse......it can't get much worse really.

[HitInAPinch]

I agree partially in what jimbo92107 said.  Maybe the change to be more aggressive at the plate may have hurt Joe's overall approach.  He was pretty good at working the count.  That combined with what is most likely lingering affects of the concussions may be affecting his eyes.  It's really a sad thing to watch.

 

And, NO, Joe will not be a catcher ever again.

Edited June 15, 2015 by HitInAPinch

[lukeduke1980]

There's another part to this Mauer tale, which is the improvement of the AL Central, especially the Kansas City Royals.  Mauer destroyed the Royals when they were the AL Central bottom feeders, and padded the heck out of his stats.

 

I'm sure most great players have done this against the poorest teams, but check the stats.  I think he slugged over 1.000 annually against the Royals; now the Royals are better as is pitching across the board.

[SwainZag]

 

he has a negative WAR on offense since the beginning of 2014, only 2 are worse......it can't get much worse really.

Baseball reference has his oWAR at 1.5 on offense and 2.1 WAR overall last year and an OPS+ of 107.  If you don't think you can find worse, you aren't looking hard enough.

 

[Mike Sixel]

And if you use this link, he has a -0.1 WAR using only the offense......with only 2 qualified 1B worse.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Baseball reference has his oWAR at 1.5 on offense and 2.1 WAR overall last year and an OPS+ of 107.  If you don't think you can find worse, you aren't looking hard enough.

 

Are we going to argue that he's actually even close to average for a 1B? Because that's really the point, he's closer to the worst 1B than the 10th best 1B on offense right now......that's a problem. If you don't agree, I'm ok with that.

[savvyspy]

I am far from a Mauer apologist but until this front office figures out how to manage a roster, Joe is the least of our problems.

 

Mauer's OBP is only behind Dozier (having a great season) and Nunez (Playing way over his head) and exactly the same as Torii. So until there are ANY viable options Joe is the best player we have.

 

As long as the Twins continue to show an epic disdain for rookies, Joe's job is going to be pretty same for years to come. 

[spinowner]

 

Ya kinda lost me right there. Not sure anyone who has ever put on the tools of ignorance and got behind the plate to catch more than bullpens or BP would agree it's the least demanding position.

I think the original post was saying that catcher is the position that is least important in terms of producing offense. And I agree, with shortstop being next least important.

[Craig Arko]

I wish the Pohlads would work a deal with Mauer, so that he could retire and become a part owner of the Twins.  This way Mauer could leave gracefully while his Hall of Fame credentials are still partially intact.  

I really wonder if something like that might happen. Along with either an executive position like Puckett had or a roving ambassador like Tony O.

[spinowner]

 

Agreed. Just hearing that proposed makes me want to shut down the board because I just can't even.

 

Joe Mauer suffered a serious brain injury. He will not return to catching. Full stop.

If I were a moderator I'd consider issuing a warning to anyone who proposes that. The only circumstances that would put him back behind the plate would be if Suzuki, Herrmann, Escobar, Nunez, Plouffe, Dozier, Graham, Fien, Pressly and Buxton were all injured during the course of a game.

[Craig Arko]

If I were a moderator I'd consider issuing a warning to anyone who proposes that. The only circumstances that would put him back behind the plate would be if Suzuki, Herrmann, Escobar, Nunez, Plouffe, Dozier, Graham, Fien, Pressly and Buxton were all injured during the course of a game.

They're no more qualified to make medical calls than the rest of us. The only opinions that really matter here are Joe's, his family, his doctor(s) and Twins management.

[D. Hocking]

Not to state the obvious, but that news about Justin is depressing.  Hopefully this is just a relatively short set-back and nothing that is going to plague him for years, esp. with the young kids.  

 

Semi-off topic - I know there has already been some coverage of what ex-football players are experiencing, but I wonder if in about ten years we are going to find out that it is much worse than originally reported (or because of the larger size of players, more and more players are dealing with permanent repercussions).