Article: Three-Bagger: Mauer's Decline, Morneau's Woes & Dozier's Pop

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins hit four triples in a game on Sunday, so it only feels right that we start the week with a Three-Bagger column, covering three intriguing storylines. Read on and let's dig in.* Aaron Gleeman wrote a lengthy and thoughtful piece last week on the transformation that Joe Mauer has undergone as a hitter since sustaining a concussion in 2013. There's no assurance it was that brain injury, suffered on a foul tip off the bat of Ike Davis in a meaningless August game, that turned the six-time All Star from a great hitter to a mediocre one, but he was having a very Mauer-esque season at the time it occurred, and has never been the same since.

 

The careers of Mauer and Justin Morneau – "The M&M Boys" – seem inextricably linked. Both reached the majors around the same time. Both rose to the top ranks at their respective positions, and won MVP Awards. And now both have been struck by concussions on seemingly innocuous plays that, evidently, robbed them of their elite offensive ability.

 

The good news is that Morneau did rebound. It took him a few seasons, and he never regained his standing as a dominant slugger, but he did bat .319 last year with Colorado to lead the National League. It may be that patience is required with Mauer... more than we'd like.

 

However, if the primary culprit for Mauer's devolution as a hitter is aging or cumulative leg wear, it may be that what we see is what we're going to get. In that event, the enormous remaining commitment to him becomes a very serious problem. As painful as it is to say, Mauer is currently the worst offensive first baseman in the American League (by OPS). Will he block better young hitters at the game's most bat-driven position for three years sheerly by virtue of his status?

 

It's an uncomfortable topic to ponder. I just hope Joe can improve.

 

* Speaking of Morneau and uncomfortable topics to ponder, the 34-year-old hasn't played for the Rockies since suffering another concussion while diving after a ground ball on May 16th, and has no return in sight. His manager's words 10 days ago were ominous:

 

"It's difficult for Justin, given his history with concussions," manager Walt Weiss said. "This is a process and we have to wait it out."

 

That's heartbreaking, especially when you look back at some of the quotes in this ESPN.com column written by Jim Caple back in March, titled "Concussion fears real for Justin Morneau."

"It’s something that will always be with me," [Morneau] said. “I look at it like a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery -- every time he throws or his elbow gets sore or something happens, you’re going to go back to that. I just needed time to build confidence on it. The further away you get from it, the better you feel. But it’s one of those things that will never ever be out of my mind or be completely gone. That’s the reality of the situation."

Get well, Justin.

 

* Wow, we're off to a depressing start. Let's round things out with a happier note... How about that Brian Dozier? The contract extension signed by Dozier near the end of spring training was mystifying in that it appeared to provide little benefit to the team, other than potential cost savings in the event that the overachieving Dozier somehow got even better.

 

Right now that's exactly the direction things are headed.

 

Dozier's power over the past two years has been very impressive for his position, but now he's taking things to another level. After piling up four more extra-base hits in Texas over the weekend, the infielder now leads the American League with 36. He has an .883 OPS, and with nearly 40 percent of the season in the books, he's on pace for 53 doubles, eight triples, 34 homers and 133 runs scored.

 

These numbers would not only firmly establish Dozier as one of the top second basemen in all of major-league baseball, it would place him squarely in the MVP discussion.

 

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[Blackjack]

Mauer is not going anywhere, lets just hope he improves. He won't retire early either, with the Twins improving, he's going to want to stick with it and hopefully win a championship.

 

Time for Morneau to retire, he's made enough money, no sense in living life with a scrambled brain. If there is any doubt in your mind, go read about Jim Mchahon, the former Chicago Bears QB. Dementia in his 50's....

 

Good for Dozier!!!  The front office made the right move at the right time!!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

I just feel gutshot every time I think about Joe Mauer. It's such an unfortunate - and completely unexpected - decline that I still struggle to comprehend it. By all accounts, Mauer should have declined gracefully. Maybe not on the level of Molitor but his excellent bat control and discipline should have made him a productive player well into this 30s.

 

Now I don't know what the Twins can do with him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 If there is any doubt in your mind, go read about Jim Mchahon, the former Chicago Bears QB. Dementia in his 50's....

I hadn't heard this. Yikes. I'll never forget the cheap shot on Jim by Charles Martin. Maybe the most egregrious and damaging penalty I've ever seen in the NFL.

[tobi0040]

 

I just feel gutshot every time I think about Joe Mauer. It's such an unfortunate - and completely unexpected - decline that I still struggle to comprehend it. By all accounts, Mauer should have declined gracefully. Maybe not on the level of Molitor but his excellent bat control and discipline should have made him a productive player well into this 30s.

 

Now I don't know what the Twins can do with him.

 

Yeah, Morneau turned it around but no two are the same.  I hope Joe can. 

 

[troyhobbs]

I commented during ST that Mauer was no longer vital to the Twins' resurgence and got jumped on by a lot of posters.  I like Mauer and was a big fan of the contract signing at the time but that deal just keeps getting worse and worse.  He may go down as one of the most overpaid baseball players of all time.

[spinowner]

It took 4 years (repeating for emphasis, 4 years!) for Justin Morneau to be Justin Morneau again. Every brain injury is different, but I think the correlation between Mauer's injury and the drop-off in his performance is too strong to be dismissed. We all hope that better times lie ahead.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He may go down as one of the most overpaid baseball players of all time.

Eh, I don't think that's the case. He was very productive in 2010, 2012, and 2013. Hell, he was even somewhat productive in 2014.

 

When compared to the likes of Barry Zito and Ryan Howard (amongst many others), Joe is a veritable productivity machine despite all the issues he's having later in the contract. Mauer has posted an rWAR of 18.8 from 2010 through today.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins hit four triples in a game on Sunday, so it only feels right that we start the week with a Three-Bagger column, covering three intriguing storylines. Read on and let's dig in.* Aaron Gleeman wrote a lengthy and thoughtful piece last week on the transformation that Joe Mauer has undergone as a hitter since sustaining a concussion in 2013. There's no assurance it was that brain injury, suffered on a foul tip off the bat of Ike Davis in a meaningless August game, that turned the six-time All Star from a great hitter to a mediocre one, but he was having a very Mauer-esque season at the time it occurred, and has never been the same since.

The careers of Mauer and Justin Morneau – "The M&M Boys" – seem inextricably linked. Both reached the majors around the same time. Both rose to the top ranks at their respective positions, and won MVP Awards. And now both have been struck by concussions on seemingly innocuous plays that, evidently, robbed them of their elite offensive ability.

The good news is that Morneau did rebound. It took him a few seasons, and he never regained his standing as a dominant slugger, but he did bat .319 last year with Colorado to lead the National League. It may be that patience is required with Mauer... more than we'd like.

Mauer's 2012-2013 seasons were Mauer-eque in overall production, but they also saw a significant bump in K%.

 

Morneau's 2014 in Colorado was actually very much like his 2012-2013 Twins seasons, just with a dramatic cut in K% (and a full season career high BABIP).

 

Drop Mauer's K% to 10% and his 2014 line improves to .302/.390/.402, .792 OPS or roughly 120 OPS+.  Not far off his career numbers minus the power.

[jharaldson]

If you look at the 2013 pre-concussion numbers there are signs that a decline was coming.  Listening to Gleeman and looking at his article you would assume that K% went up after the concussion but his K% in 2013 was 17.5%.  It maxed out the next year after the concussion at 18.5% but the majority of growth in K% happened prior to the concussion.

 

Also, it was repeated frequently in the latest podcast that in 2013 Joe was having a regular Joe year with a .325 AVG and a .400 OBP.  Neither Gleeman nor John mentioned his career high BABIP in 2013 of .383, almost 40 points higher than his career average.  In 2014 his BABIP went down to his career average of .342 which saw a similar reduction in AVG and OBP.  Disregarding the concussion these reductions were predictable because a BABIP of near .400 is unsustainable as Danny Santana has shown.

[Winston Smith]

This won't sit well with most but I think it's time to switch Dozier and Mauer in the lineup. Dozier has 13 hr's with 11 being solo a big waste of his power. Joe leads the league in dp's which is a big waste of runners.

Mauer leads off tell him to forget pulling the ball go back to just getting on base and I think it would be better overall.

[birddog]

Dozier has become the new face of the Twins. Exciting young player. Not sure there is a better overall 2B. I feel so bad for Morneau and his family--and that is all of us Twins fans. I was so hoping he was over his concussion issues, but I am afraid he has to retire so he gets a full life of being a husband and dad.

 

Mauer is the enigma. Good guy who was so easy to like when he produced, but in the business of baseball what have you done for me lately? And if you aren't doing much lately--to earn even a third of your salary--we have to do what is best for the team. I think that is moving him back to catcher, especially with Suzuki struggling and Pinto showing signs of being another AAAA player. If he gets concussed again, the Twins collect on their insurance for his salary and move in one of our young studs. If he stays healthy and continues with his current numbers, he is still grossly overpaid but not nearly as much as a 1B. I realize this may not happen until he has a spring training as a C, but for the good of the team I feel this is best. If Joe is worried about possible concussions, he has to consider summer fishing with Morneau listening to Twins games on the boat.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also, it was repeated frequently in the latest podcast that in 2013 Joe was having a regular Joe year with a .325 AVG and a .400 OBP.  Neither Gleeman nor John mentioned his career high BABIP in 2013 of .383, almost 40 points higher than his career average.  In 2014 his BABIP went down to his career average of .342 which saw a similar reduction in AVG and OBP.  Disregarding the concussion these reductions were predictable because a BABIP of near .400 is unsustainable as Danny Santana has shown.

Eh, you're completely disregarding that Joe's slugging when down a full .105 (!) from 2013 to 2014.

 

His BABIP in 2013 was unsustainable but that wasn't the real reason his productivity nose-dived after the concussion. It was the fact that he stopped hitting for any kind of power. The BABIP was simply regression toward his personal norm. It should have contributed to a slight dip in overall numbers but not the "fall off a cliff" drop we saw in production.

 

If Joe slugs .450 instead of .370 last season (a relatively conservative number based on his 2010-2013 numbers), his OPS is still over .800 for the season and we barely even notice his slight overall decline.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It took 4 years (repeating for emphasis, 4 years!) for Justin Morneau to be Justin Morneau again.

Justin Morneau never was Justin Morneau again, at least in terms of pre-2011 on-field performance.  See my post above.

[Mike Sixel]

If this is Joe Mauer.....then yes, he will be blocking better players. I'd argue that Sano s/b at 1B right now, with Plouffe at 3B.....

 

He's one of the worst hitting regular 1B in baseball......you owe it to the other players and the fans to put the best players on the field. I'd say if this is how he plays all year, you have to consider benching him next year. Or, you can just keep putting him out there, even though he is bad at his job, and not be trying to be the best team you can.

[biscuit]

I think the most devastating blow was Morneau's concussion.  He was at the top of his game, having a career year in a career filled with greatness.  He never got that back. Mauer's decline seems to be directly related to Morneau's.  When Mauer was at his best, a healthy MVP-class Justin Morneau was batting right behind him.

[markos]

It would be really interesting if someone was able to quantify exactly how many hits have been taken away due to aggressive shifting. Yes, Mauer's drop-off in production has coincided with the brain injury, but it has also coincided with his decline years and with a significant league-wide uptick in defensive shifts. It is hard to know exactly how much each factor is contributing to his decline.

 

I've always thought that Mauer is one of the most shiftable hitters in the league (flyballs go opposite field; grounders get pulled). I recall a post (http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2014-mlb-playoffs-exploiting-kansas-city-royals-ultimate-outfield-jarrod-dyson-alex-gordon-lorenzo-cain/) showing how Mauer basically had to hit the foul line against Alex Gordon in order to get a hit down the line. Granted, that is just one example, but in general I think that there have been a lot of balls in play that three or more years ago that would definitely have been hits but now outfielders are getting to. 

 

Mauer has been hitting well with RISP. With runners on base, infielders are much less likely to be able to shift (or shift as aggressively). So maybe it isn't just small sample size luck that Mauer is hitting better with runners on base.

[jharaldson]

 

Eh, you're completely disregarding that Joe's slugging when down a full .105 (!) from 2013 to 2014.

 

His BABIP in 2013 was unsustainable but that wasn't the real reason his productivity nose-dived after the concussion. It was the fact that he stopped hitting for any kind of power. The BABIP was simply regression toward his personal norm. It should have contributed to a slight dip in overall numbers but not the "fall off a cliff" drop we saw in production.

 

If Joe slugs .450 instead of .370 last season (a relatively conservative number based on his 2010-2013 numbers), his OPS is still over .800 for the season and we barely even notice his slight overall decline.

 

I would agree that his BABIP had almost no impact on his slugging which went down dramatically from 2013 (ISO .153) to 2014 (ISO .095).  A good case could be made there for the concussion impacting that.  I would also include offseason training issues due to concussion and increase in defensive shifts in that reduction but would have no problem conceding that the power reduction was a result of the concussion.

 

Just to make the math work, if Joe had a SLG% of .450 like you suggested that would mean his ISO for last year would have been .170.  As a comparison he has only ever reached .170 in 1 year and that is his outlier year of 2009 so I think that is a little aggressive.  A better comp would have been to say if Joe had his career ISO of .139 last year he would have had a SLG% of .410-415 and an OPS of .770.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would agree that his BABIP had almost no impact on his slugging which went down dramatically from 2013 (ISO .153) to 2014 (ISO .095).  A good case could be made there for the concussion impacting that.  I would also include offseason training issues due to concussion and increase in defensive shifts in that reduction but would have no problem conceding that the power reduction was a result of the concussion.

 

Just to make the math work, if Joe had a SLG% of .450 like you suggested that would mean his ISO for last year would have been .170.  As a comparison he has only ever reached .170 in 1 year and that is his outlier year of 2009 so I think that is a little aggressive.  A better comp would have been to say if Joe had his career ISO of .139 last year he would have had a SLG% of .410-415 and an OPS of .770.

Fair enough. I was just winging the math on that one. But even at .770, Joe is a productive first baseman. In 2014, that would have been good for something around a 115-ish OPS+. Definitely not where you want a $23m player to be performance-wise but not embarrassing, either.

[tobi0040]

 

If this is Joe Mauer.....then yes, he will be blocking better players. I'd argue that Sano s/b at 1B right now, with Plouffe at 3B.....

 

He's one of the worst hitting regular 1B in baseball......you owe it to the other players and the fans to put the best players on the field. I'd say if this is how he plays all year, you have to consider benching him next year. Or, you can just keep putting him out there, even though he is bad at his job, and not be trying to be the best team you can.

 

Just curious, at what point would you pull him for Sano and what would you do with Joe?  $23M bench player? Platoon? AAA to hopefully turn it around?  DFA him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Eh, you're completely disregarding that Joe's slugging when down a full .105 (!) from 2013 to 2014.

 

His BABIP in 2013 was unsustainable but that wasn't the real reason his productivity nose-dived after the concussion. It was the fact that he stopped hitting for any kind of power. The BABIP was simply regression toward his personal norm. It should have contributed to a slight dip in overall numbers but not the "fall off a cliff" drop we saw in production.

Yeah, the power drop was huge.

 

My theory is that he had to make an adjustment after his 2011 injuries, becoming more aggressive and a bit more of a "guess" hitter at times, and that led to more strikeouts.  But he kept his production.

 

After 2013, he had to make an additional adjustment, and has thus far been unable to do so.

[jharaldson]

 

Fair enough. I was just winging the math on that one. But even at .770, Joe is a productive first baseman. In 2014, that would have been good for something around a 115-ish OPS+. Definitely not where you want a $23m player to be performance-wise but not embarrassing, either.

 

No problem, my biggest beef with the whole conversation is that the concussion gets blamed for everything.  I agree that Joe would have been in the .770 range in 2014 without the concussion which means to me that the majority of his OPS reduction (880 -> 770) from 2013 to 2014 was caused by pre-concussion factors and the remaining minority was concussion related (770 -> 730).

[tobi0040]

Joe actually had a lower OPS at this point last year, but still ended the season at a .737 OPS.  He had a higher strike out rate too, lower BB's though.  I know .737 is not great, but much better than where he is at today.

 

.267/.340/.338/.678 in 2014.   10.5% BB  and 18.5% K.   Ended the year .737.

 

.261/.324/.357./.681 in 2015    8.6% BB, 15.2% K

 

 

[Blake]

I have to wonder if multiple factors are at play here.

 

1. The league has figured out Mauer and adjusted accordingly.

2. Mauer has not made or is unable to adjust his approach to hitting.

3. The concussion suffered has played a factor in the precipitous decline in Mauer's ability.

 

For what it's worth.

[Mike Sixel]

4. He's older and not as good......

 

Last year he was 15th of 23 qualified 1B (offense only part of WAR).......15th.

 

It's not just where he falls, but how far he is from even being good. He was closer to negative WAR than he was the top 10.....

 

Filtering on 2014-present, he actually has a negative offensive WAR for a 1B over the last year plus......

[Boom Boom]

I have no sympathy for a hitter getting beat by shifts. Either beat the shift or put it over the fence, two things Mauer is unable to do.

 

If it's the concussion, I have sympathy for him, but he needs to get much better real fast or he'll be replaced. Too bad, that's how it's been done forever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I have to wonder if multiple factors are at play here.

 

1. The league has figured out Mauer and adjusted accordingly.

2. Mauer has not made or is unable to adjust his approach to hitting.

3. The concussion suffered has played a factor in the precipitous decline in Mauer's ability.

 

For what it's worth.

I suspect this is the case. If you pull out those points individually, his struggles make little sense.

 

When healthy, Joe was too damned good a hitter to get beat so badly by something as simple as a shift.

 

Part of being a MLB player - especially a 40 WAR player in less than a decade of play - involves constantly adjusting and beating the opposing pitcher and defense. They do one thing, Joe adjusts and continues hitting.

 

Increasingly by the day, it seems that Joe might have suffered longterm, possibly permanent, effects to his ability after the 2011 injury and the concussion. Couple that with aging and defenses more aggressively shifting against him and we end up where we are today. Where he could have adjusted in previous years has turned into a situation where he's unable to adjust to what pitchers and defense are doing to him. It started with the strikeouts after his 2011 injury and became increasingly problematic after the concussion.

[SwainZag]

 

Just curious, at what point would you pull him for Sano and what would you do with Joe?  $23M bench player? Platoon? AAA to hopefully turn it around?  DFA him?

 

If this was even in the plans you would assume they would shift Sano and at least give him some defensive innings in AA at 1B.  I really see no way they continue to play him at 3B and then bring him with no reps at 1B.

[d-mac]

Brain injuries are a b****.

[Vanimal46]

Very sad to read about Morneau. I would think he's not living check to check, so I hope he takes this time to evaluate the risks of continuing to play going forward.

 

In regards to Mauer, I hope the FO has the testicular fortitude to make the tough call and bench him for better talent in the future.

 

Sano is continuing to get his reps at 3B in the minors because they want that to be his landing spot. However, I believe he can make the switch to 1B at the MLB level without significant playing time there. He's learning the more demanding defensive position now and should fit in wherever we need him going forward.