Article: Stauffer DFA'd. Tonkin Recalled. We Don't Know What We Don't Know

[Danchat]

Looking at the bonuses that Stauffer was going to eventually get, it looks like the Twins signed him to be a starter. No, seriously.

 

In Spring Training, they tried to stretch out Stauffer as a starter, but he pitched so poorly they moved him into the bullpen.

 

Not sure what TR was thinking.

[SarasotaBill]

Stauffer's track record and contract made no sense.

 

Hopefully Ryan learns to get only the cheap guys like Boyer for Spring training bullpen tryouts.

 

Even better, hopefully the strong bullpen arms in AA make significant progress in 2015.

[Hrbowski]

I think that we should send him and Duensing to the O's for Delmon Young.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

organizational depth requires some Stauffers.  

 

Could you provide specifics on that much larger problem, and how it is going to be exasperated going forward?

 

I can try to answer this for you. Because Stauffer wasn't brought on as organizational depth. He was offered a major league contract with those generous incentives.

 

For example. Two guys the Twins used extensively the past couple seasons were Jared Burton and Kevin Correia. This year, both have been pitching for minor league affiliates on minor league contracts signed in spring training, not in December. They have both bounced around multiple organizations already in 2015, pitching mostly in AAA. Neither has appeared in MLB yet this year. They have had good careers but they are organizational depth now. Yet the Twins relied on them heavily as important contributors just last year.

 

We hit a nice little jackpot with Pelfrey, but the next test will be how the Twins negotiate with him after the season. Yes, young guys have made the Twins lineup in recent years and some have flourished, some not. It doesn't invalidate the point that this organization seriously overvalues decline phase veterans. That could be a problem going forward with so many prospects on the verge. 

 

[stringer bell]

I would like to second the notion that, while Stauffer was essentially useless, Tonkin needs to be a whole lot better than he has been.  Opportunities for him haven't been the problem - he really hasn't pitched that well.

 

So the only real difference we know for sure is that Tonkin is younger.  Better or more talented remains to be seen.

And he throws harder. By itself that doesn't make much difference, but if Tonkin can manage to add a league-average slider or change, he can be effective with his fastball and another pitch. Stauffer didn't have that luxury.

[stringer bell]

I still can't understand the "need" for 13 pitchers. The Twins have weathered the "bullpen game" on Saturday and since gotten 8, 7+, 6 and 6 innings from their starters. They now have an off-day. In addition, the way they've been hitting, they are probably in for three or four eight inning games from the pitching staff.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I bet Neil Allen can't wait to teach Tonkin to throw something off-speed. 

[SwainZag]

Looking at the bonuses that Stauffer was going to eventually get, it looks like the Twins signed him to be a starter. No, seriously.

 

In Spring Training, they tried to stretch out Stauffer as a starter, but he pitched so poorly they moved him into the bullpen.

 

Not sure what TR was thinking.

I agree with this. A fairly cheap starting option in case May and Meyer both proved not ready, Pelf was the Pelf if the last two years, Nolasco and his injuries, etc. The appearances clauses make more sense that way.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

I still can't understand the "need" for 13 pitchers. The Twins have weathered the "bullpen game" on Saturday and since gotten 8, 7+, 6 and 6 innings from their starters. They now have an off-day. In addition, the way they've been hitting, they are probably in for three or four eight inning games from the pitching staff.

Agreed - this has taken longer to sort out than anticipated. I think it was almost three weeks ago now that Rob Antony was on the Sunday morning radio show talking about the extra bullpen guy and the desire to get that back to 12 pitchers for Molitor's bench.

 

Maybe the front office felt that losing Nolasco to the DL was going to be a bigger problem? Starting J.R. Graham turned out pretty well all things considered, they should have the rotation all set to go now.  

 

I have to believe that another move is on the horizon - whether it is Duensing, or something else. Santana's return will likely force some movement, but a baker's dozen is more pitchers than Molitor can use. It's especially wasteful when any kind of bench bat could come in handy.  

[jorgenswest]

Thoughts at the time of the signing can be seen here and here

 

The original article concluded 

 

 

About the only people who should be opposed to this move are the other relievers in the Twins bullpen

 

Being opposed was a minority opinion. Those in favor saw the low cost contract and the strike out rate. Those concerned saw the context of a low leverage reliever in Petco Park coming to the AL.

 

The market for good right handed relievers was set north of 5 million this winter. His contract alone should have been a huge red flag that other teams were looking beyond the Petco numbers and weren't impressed with what they saw. 

 

[Han Joelo]

While I agree with the dfa, I'm glad the Twins took some flyers on some veteran bullpen arms this spring. Staffer didn't work out, Boyer has, at least so far. Regardless of how good Tonkin and Oliveras look in AAA, they seem to be ghosts of Slama. Glad Boyer has been around.

[spinowner]

 

I think that we should send him and Duensing to the O's for Delmon Young.

If Baltimore would throw in a bag of used baseballs we'd come out ahead in that deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Being opposed was a minority opinion. Those in favor saw the low cost contract and the strike out rate. Those concerned saw the context of a low leverage reliever in Petco Park coming to the AL.

I wasn't opposed, but I was seriously skeptical when I saw they had plans to start him.  That's not something you do when you target a high-upside bullpen arm.  And we didn't have much business adding another low-upside arm to our mix, even at that cost.

[jimbo92107]

I don't know if Michael Tonkin is going to be a good or great reliever in the majors, but there is absolutely no reason for him to spend another day in the minor leagues. He looks solid, he throws hard, and as far as I can tell, he doesn't crack under pressure. Use him!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Could you provide specifics on that much larger problem, and how it is going to be exasperated going forward?

I think relying heavily on reclamation project pitchers points to inability to develop quality pitchers. That's a pretty big problem, and it is exasperated by continuing to salvage those washed up husks of MLB pitchers because the team would spend its time on low upside development rather than high upside development through the farm system.

[Jham]

I'll state again that I think the team's rebuild has been hurt more by relying too heavily on young players than too heavily on declining vets.  Our inability to bring in talent in free agency left us with nothing to trade during lost seasons.  It allowed developing players to quit working on their games, and left us without serviceable options all over the field.  You can't always predict which vets will pan out, just like you can't predict which prospects will make it.  This is why you bring in as much talent as you possibly can. in whatever capacity you can.  I thought it was crazy that the team brought back Pelfrey.  I thought they were crazy to go north with Boyer.  I'm willing to forgive them on Stauffer and give them credit for cutting their losses.  I actually hope he accepts his assignment and stays with the organization.  His velocity was way down.  I wouldn't mind seeing if he can provide something when healthy.  

Re: Tonkin, Oliveros, and Slama, look at our AAA line up.  Our best hitters in Rochester are...  Pinto?  Santana?  Arcia occasionally?   I don't think dominating a bunch of Eric Fryers and Doug Bernier's means we should trust these guys to get Moustakis or Miggy in a big spot.
 

[Kwak]

 

I'll state again that I think the team's rebuild has been hurt more by relying too heavily on young players than too heavily on declining vets.  Our inability to bring in talent in free agency left us with nothing to trade during lost seasons.  It allowed developing players to quit working on their games, and left us without serviceable options all over the field.  You can't always predict which vets will pan out, just like you can't predict which prospects will make it.  This is why you bring in as much talent as you possibly can. in whatever capacity you can.  I thought it was crazy that the team brought back Pelfrey.  I thought they were crazy to go north with Boyer.  I'm willing to forgive them on Stauffer and give them credit for cutting their losses.  I actually hope he accepts his assignment and stays with the organization.  His velocity was way down.  I wouldn't mind seeing if he can provide something when healthy.  

Re: Tonkin, Oliveros, and Slama, look at our AAA line up.  Our best hitters in Rochester are...  Pinto?  Santana?  Arcia occasionally?   I don't think dominating a bunch of Eric Fryers and Doug Bernier's means we should trust these guys to get Moustakis or Miggy in a big spot.
 

Sounds like the front office debate concerning players and prospects.

[h2oface]

 

At some point, the Twins will have to add Ervin Santana back to the 40-man

Perhaps on July 4. 

[h2oface]

 

I think the Twins think they need 13 pitchers because the 8 man bullpen was really 6. Stuffer and Graham were not usable in any game still winnable or losable, so most days it's like they weren't there. That was bad enough, but recently both Perkins and Thompson are LOOGYs at best, so now how big is the bullpen?

I remember a 3 inning tie game into extras where Graham pitched great... for 3 high leverage important innings, giving up only 1 hit, no walks, and 2 Ks, and we beat Pittsburgh on Mauers homer. I could look up others. His start of 4 innings and only 1 run given up was pretty darn good. Since getting shelled in one appearance with 2 homers on May 14, he has given up one earned run in 5 appearances, going 13.2 innings with 1 walk and 11ks and 14 hits. In his 16 appearances, he has only given up an earned runs in 4 of them, and for 3 of the 4 only one. I really don't see how he is mentioned in the same breath as Stauffer. 

[mickeymental]

graham > stauffer for sure. but also fair to mention that six of graham's nine inherited runners have scored (six of 13 for stauffer).

[USAFChief]

I remember a 3 inning tie game into extras where Graham pitched great... for 3 high leverage important innings, giving up only 1 hit, no walks, and 2 Ks, and we beat Pittsburgh on Mauers homer. I could look up others. His start of 4 innings and only 1 run given up was pretty darn good. Since getting shelled in one appearance with 2 homers on May 14, he has given up one earned run in 5 appearances, going 13.2 innings with 1 walk and 11ks and 14 hits. In his 16 appearances, he has only given up an earned runs in 4 of them, and for 3 of the 4 only one. I really don't see how he is mentioned in the same breath as Stauffer.

 

I'm not saying Graham pitched similarly, I'm saying they've been used similarly. Not trusted except when there's no choice or the game is decided.

 

Graham has been protected in the pen, and only used in low leverage situations or when he's the last or second to last option. He wouldn't have been used in Pitt either if Molitor had any choice.

 

The effect of that is to reduce the size of the pen in most games. Maybe they'll start to use Graham more, which would help get down to 7 relievers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1. I wasn't in love with the Stauffer signing for a few reasons but he was a Jared Burton-type risk - albeit for too much money - that didn't pan out. Eh, whatever. I thought the Twins had enough youngster to patch together a pen but I understand the desire to pick up at least one veteran guy in case things go horribly wrong.

 

2. The guy pitched all of 15 innings before getting the axe. The way some are acting around here, you'd think he pitched 50 innings of high leverage baseball before getting cut.

 

3. Stauffer lost 2 mph on his pitches between 2014 and 2015. That impacted his ability more than anything else; certainly more than the move from the NL and PETCO and is almost certainly the reason his Swinging Strike % dropped from roughly 10% over 2012-2014 to a meager 4% in 2015.

 

4. Stauffer went from a 20%+ K% from 2013-2014 to just 8% in 2015. He was a reliever from 2013-2014 so it's not as if he got to rack up Ks against pitchers in the NL. Simply put, the guy is not the pitcher the Twins thought they were getting and that's not because the Twins were blind to Stauffer's PETCO stats. Something is wrong with the guy.

[Mike Sixel]

 

1. I wasn't in love with the Stauffer signing for a few reasons but he was a Jared Burton-type risk - albeit for too much money - that didn't pan out. Eh, whatever. I thought the Twins had enough youngster to patch together a pen but I understand the desire to pick up at least one veteran guy in case things go horribly wrong.

 

2. The guy pitched all of 15 innings before getting the axe. The way some are acting around here, you'd think he pitched 50 innings of high leverage baseball before getting cut.

 

1, Having all veterans with no options means you have no flexibility. It was a mistake from day 1.

 

2. He took up a 25 man roster spot, that could have gone to someone of use, that would maybe not supply negative value. Every roster spot matters, despite how this team has acted the last 4 years. we saw it last year, we see it this year.

 

3. If they are still rebuilding, as many here contend, the young guys should be up here, so they can gather data on them, Achter, Oliverous, Tonkin, x, y, z, should all get time here this year so they can sort things out.

 

4. If they are not rebuilding, then they certainly shouldn't keep someone around that long that is really bad. And, there is no reason to repeat the mistake with Duensing, who despite what people keep typing, was awful last year also.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

3. If they are still rebuilding, as many here contend, the young guys should be up here, so they can gather data on them, Achter, Oliverous, Tonkin, x, y, z, should all get time here this year so they can sort things out.

 

4. If they are not rebuilding, then they certainly shouldn't keep someone around that long that is really bad. And, there is no reason to repeat the mistake with Duensing, who despite what people keep typing, was awful last year also.

I agree that the Twins should have been looking more at the younger relievers in their system and didn't need both Duensing and Stauffer (although Brian had good splits against lefties last year, something he hasn't replicated this season).

 

My earlier point is that they didn't keep Stauffer around for that long. Tim struggled badly and was put on the DL. I'm sure the Twins were aware of his drop in velocity and decided to give him one more shot after the DL. The velocity didn't return and they cut him after just 5.1 additional innings. Would I have cut him a bit faster? Yeah, almost certainly but the guy only made 13 appearances with the Twins. They didn't dawdle excessively on making a decision here.

[nicksaviking]

 

While I agree with the dfa, I'm glad the Twins took some flyers on some veteran bullpen arms this spring. Staffer didn't work out, Boyer has, at least so far. Regardless of how good Tonkin and Oliveras look in AAA, they seem to be ghosts of Slama. Glad Boyer has been around.

 

Anthony Slama's fastball sat around 89-91 MPH.  Tonkin's runs about 93-95 while Oliveros is 95-97.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1, Having all veterans with no options means you have no flexibility. It was a mistake from day 1.

This kind of gets at it.  Wanting a veteran or two in your bullpen mix is fine -- but the Twins guaranteed money and a spot to a couple low-upside veterans, who both happened to struggle, AND took a flyer on another... so now we're over two months into the season, still with an iffy bullpen overall, and virtually no further at identifying any new bullpen assets.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1. I wasn't in love with the Stauffer signing for a few reasons but he was a Jared Burton-type risk - albeit for too much money - that didn't pan out. Eh, whatever. I thought the Twins had enough youngster to patch together a pen but I understand the desire to pick up at least one veteran guy in case things go horribly wrong.

 

2. The guy pitched all of 15 innings before getting the axe. The way some are acting around here, you'd think he pitched 50 innings of high leverage baseball before getting cut.

 

3. Stauffer lost 2 mph on his pitches between 2014 and 2015. That impacted his ability more than anything else; certainly more than the move from the NL and PETCO and is almost certainly the reason his Swinging Strike % dropped from roughly 10% over 2012-2014 to a meager 4% in 2015.

 

4. Stauffer went from a 20%+ K% from 2013-2014 to just 8% in 2015. He was a reliever from 2013-2014 so it's not as if he got to rack up Ks against pitchers in the NL. Simply put, the guy is not the pitcher the Twins thought they were getting and that's not because the Twins were blind to Stauffer's PETCO stats. Something is wrong with the guy.

I hear you.  But from the get-go, Stauffer was in the Anthony Swarzak role.  They gave him a chance to start in the spring, then immediately put him in the back of the pen for long relief (and mostly mop-up work).  Even before performance and health became an issue, he was never a Burton type investment (potential setup man).

 

Why the Twins felt the need to guarantee $2.2 mil (plus incentives!) for a Swarzak replacement is beyond me -- that's the spot on the roster where you stash the Rule 5 guy, or rotate/audition cheap young guys with options who can actually improve your bullpen, now and into the future.

Edited June 12, 2015 by spycake

[Brock Beauchamp]

I didn't get the starting thing at all. What a weird tryout.

But as a reliever, a healthy Tim Stauffer should have been serviceable. He missed bats and had a manageable walk rate for the Padres. His peripherals indicated a very different pitcher than what we saw this season and the only thing I see that's different is that he has lost considerable velocity this season. He's probably injured.

 

On paper, Tim Stauffer makes a hell of a lot more sense than Blaine Boyer, yet we've seen the exact opposite results. Baseball is a weird game.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

On paper, Tim Stauffer makes a hell of a lot more sense than Blaine Boyer, yet we've seen the exact opposite results. Baseball is a weird game.

 

Mike Pelfrey is our best pitcher....I don't know anything about baseball

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On paper, Tim Stauffer makes a hell of a lot more sense than Blaine Boyer, yet we've seen the exact opposite results. Baseball is a weird game.

True, although Boyer was a minor league invite, so zero guaranteed money and no guaranteed roster spot.   We probably could have even negotiated to stash him in AAA for the first month like Guerrier, had we so desired.

 

If you are simply looking to replace Swarzak or have a warm veteran body available for the bullpen, that's the route I'd prefer to go.  (Although I probably would have paired with an upside attempt too -- Ryan Madson?)