Article: Stauffer DFA'd. Tonkin Recalled. We Don't Know What We Don't Know

[John Bonnes]

From the moment Tim Stauffer took the mound in spring training, Twins fans (and probably the Twins) have been concerned and wondering what is wrong with him. The concern stopped last night. The wondering - not so much.The Twins announced they had designated Stauffer for assignment after Wednesday night's loss to the Royals. The move was inevitable due to his struggles in the bullpen throughout the year.

 

Stauffer was rocked in his first spring training outing and never really regained any credibility or velocity. His $2.2M signing (plus quite a bit more in incentives) was logical enough if one looked at his numbers as a reliever: 57K in 56.1 IP with 19 BB. Critics might point out that his numbers were also considerably better in spacious Petco Park, and that's true. But Target Field can hide some flaws, too, and a comparison to Glen Perkins did not seem outlandish at the time of his signing.

 

Until, of course, his velocity and strikeout numbers fell off a cliff. For the Twins this year, that 1:1 ratio for strikeouts and innings pitched fell to 6:15 - with more walks than strikeouts. That suggests something was wrong. He acquiesced to a month on the disabled list, but came back to the majors after having almost no success in AAA-Rochester, despite having additional time he could spend in AAA.

 

His return went about as well as one would think of a pitcher who has shown zero credibility as a reliever. He got a single out in his first outing. Was shelled in his second. His next three he gave up hits in short outings, but nothing disastrous. And then, after not pitching for three days AND having an off-day the next day, he was replaced with (a far more deserving) Michael Tonkin.

 

So what happened? Your guess is as good as mine. It's not like the Twins bullpen is in IMMEDIATE need of help; the whole bullpen other than mop-up guy JR Graham had Wednesday night off and Thursday is an off-day. On Friday, most of the bullpen should be fresh.

 

And Stauffer should be at the top of that fresh list. The Twins have used Stauffer in extremely low leverage situations all year, put him on the disabled list for a very dubious injury, recalled him long before they needed to and then put him back into low-leverage situations the rest of the year.

 

Instead, the Twins are moving to Tonkin. They have been yo-yo-ing reliever Michael Tonkin between AAA and the majors all season, despite his superior performances.

 

So if you're looking for good news, you have it. If you're looking for a good explanation, I'm afraid I'm coming up short. The wondering is going to need to continue.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

According to Len3, "The Twins have 10 days to trade him, release him or send him to the minors."

 

I'm very curious to see what management does.  I can't see keeping Stauffer in the minors [potentially backing up the progress of younger pitchers with higher expectations], or trading Stauffer [are there truely THAT many suckers in the MLB world?].  If they release him, I'm assuming the Twins would still owe him the money.  That out be an incredible turn around for Twins ownership.  And I highly endorse it!

[DaveW]

You are just best off releasing him at this point. Some NL team might grab him eventually, but no real reason to try to even sneak him through to AAA.

 

 

What I am wondering about is why the Twins continue to think they need 13 pitchers...

[Blackjack]

Party time at TD!!!

 

Glad to see Terry Ryan admit his mistake and eat the salary.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Blackjack

[Shane Wahl]

The Twins think they need 13 pitchers because they never ever use more than 10 position players in a game, and usually it really is just 9.

 

Of course Shane Robinson is back to his usual terribleness, so the fact that they don't pinch hit for him by his third at bat is a problem.

[Shane Wahl]

Anyway, this is good. Stauffer has nothing left. He is probably best off not playing anywhere at all the rest of the year and then come back somewhere next year on a minor league dealing to see if some arm rest has helped that velocity problem.

[twinsnorth49]

One more to go TR.

[USAFChief]

The Twins think they need 13 pitchers because they never ever use more than 10 position players in a game, and usually it really is just 9.

 

Of course Shane Robinson is back to his usual terribleness, so the fact that they don't pinch hit for him by his third at bat is a problem.

I think the Twins think they need 13 pitchers because the 8 man bullpen was really 6. Stuffer and Graham were not usable in any game still winnable or losable, so most days it's like they weren't there. That was bad enough, but recently both Perkins and Thompson are LOOGYs at best, so now how big is the bullpen?

[USAFChief]

As to the OP, the only things I'm wondering are why he was signed in the first place (which was the reaction of 90 percent of this board when it happened), and why it took so long to DFA him.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think the Twins think they need 13 pitchers because the 8 man bullpen was really 6. Stuffer and Graham were not usable in any game still winnable or losable, so most days it's like they weren't there.

 

Right, but their lack of trust in Stauffer is pretty justifiable based on his performance.  Their lack of trust in Graham seems to be completely due to his inexperience, as he has performed well.

 

Lack of trust in young players due to inexperience seems to speak to a much larger problem, which is only going to get exhasperated going forward.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Right, but their lack of trust in Stauffer is pretty justifiable based on his performance. Their lack of trust in Graham seems to be completely due to his inexperience, as he has performed well.

 

Lack of trust in young players due to inexperience seems to speak to a much larger problem, which is only going to get exhasperated going forward.

Good point Nick.

 

He wasn't all that good last year. They have lots of young arms, but signed him. It was inexplicable then.

[tobi0040]

 

Good point Nick.

He wasn't all that good last year. They have lots of young arms, but signed him. It was inexplicable then.

 

That is exactly it.  Why did we sign him in the first place when we have guys that have better stuff in AAA (Tonkin, Oliveros, and Achter), with Budi, Reed, and potentially Chargois behind them.  The even bigger question is why did we structure his contract the way we did?  He was guaranteed $2.2M, then $250K bonuses started at his 15th appearance.  If he ended with 55 appearances he would have made $3.95M, just $700K less than Glen Perkins.

 

So the range of outcomes were as follows:

 

1- He was no good and cut before his 15th appearance, which is what happened.  He was at 13 appearances and warming up in the 9th last night but Graham got the last guy out.  In this scenario we paid him $170K per outing.  For a sake of reference, if Glen makes 65 appearances at his $4.65M it will work out to just $71K per appearance.

 

2- The second outcome is he pitches well enough to stick with the team and hit his 55th appearance.  You have now given him the same amount of money roughly as an all star closer.

 

What is it about his career 3.94 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, or 6.7 K per BB led us to think either of these outcomes was a good risk/reward?

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Right, but their lack of trust in Stauffer is pretty justifiable based on his performance.  Their lack of trust in Graham seems to be completely due to his inexperience, as he has performed well.

 

Lack of trust in young players due to inexperience seems to speak to a much larger problem, which is only going to get exhasperated going forward.

I also see an irrational soft spot for older reclamation guys no one else wants. (Not that I consider anyone in their 30's old.) It's a nice personal quality but a huge problem for someone in Terry Ryan's position trying to field a competitive MLB team.

[USAFChief]

Right, but their lack of trust in Stauffer is pretty justifiable based on his performance.  Their lack of trust in Graham seems to be completely due to his inexperience, as he has performed well.

 

Lack of trust in young players due to inexperience seems to speak to a much larger problem, which is only going to get exhasperated going forward.

I think the plan for Graham has always been to stash him at the back of the pen, similar to most rule 5 guys. If he can work his way into higher leverage usage, I think the Twins will allow it. But I don't blame them for not using him that way to date, and personally I wouldn't trust him with a 1run lead now yet, either.

[tobi0040]

 

I also see an irrational soft spot for older reclamation guys no one else wants. (Not that I consider anyone in their 30's old.) It's a nice personal quality but a huge problem for someone in Terry Ryan's position trying to field a competitive MLB team.

 

I need x amount of veterans to start the year.  Standard operation, especially in the pen and rotation.

[Thrylos]

All for Stauffer's DFAing but:

 

 

 

They have been yo-yo-ing reliever Michael Tonkin between AAA and the majors all season, despite his superior performances.

 

"Superior" and "Tonkin" (of 7.74 FIP and 1.500 WHIP with.261 BABIP) do not belong in the same sentence.     For reference, Stauffer had a 7.17 FIP and a 2.057 WHIP (but with a .357 BABIP)

 

Tonkin has been Staufferesque this season in the majors.  Hope he finds what is working for him in Rochester

[tobi0040]

 

All for Stauffer's DFAing but:

 

 

 

 

"Superior" and "Tonkin" (of 7.74 FIP and 1.500 WHIP with.261 BABIP) do not belong in the same sentence.     For reference, Stauffer had a 7.17 FIP and a 2.057 WHIP (but with a .357 BABIP)

 

Tonkin has been Staufferesque this season in the majors.  Hope he finds what is working for him in Rochester

 

 

Both Tonkin and Stauffer have been in AAA too.  Tonkin sports a 1.54 ERA and .168 BA against there (16 K in 11 IP).

 

Stauffer was somehow promoted back to the Twins after 5 IP of 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and  K in 5 IP

 

Edited June 11, 2015 by tobi0040

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

All for Stauffer's DFAing but:

 

 

 

 

"Superior" and "Tonkin" (of 7.74 FIP and 1.500 WHIP with.261 BABIP) do not belong in the same sentence.     For reference, Stauffer had a 7.17 FIP and a 2.057 WHIP (but with a .357 BABIP)

 

Tonkin has been Staufferesque this season in the majors.  Hope he finds what is working for him in Rochester

 

I'm not exactly enamored with Tonkin (would rather see Lester or AJ get a shot)...won't consider Meyer for now as I think he needs a confidence boost... but I'd rather see Tonkin in an extended role than Stauffer, at least Tonkin shows potential.

 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I agree with others that have said why sign Stauffer in the first place; I also think the Twins gave him a fair shot in those 13 appearances to prove his value (or lack thereof) to the team.

Once he was signed, it was worth taking the time to figure out if he had some value or not.

 

He may find a better fit in the National League after his release (I don't think there should be room for him in AAA).

[mikelink45]

Having seen Tonkin struggle for two years of up and down, I am trying to understand why so many see him as a good relief pitcher.  I wonder why we keep going to him and not experimenting with some of the others who are also getting good minor league stats.

Stauffer was just a mistake and I am pleased that they are moving on. 

 

Now the question mark for me is why Duensing continues to get used and is not subject to the same criticism.  He has under performed all year.  

Finally, it is time to scrutinize Boyer - hope for the best to continue, but his recent outings have shown some bad signs. 

[SheboyganBrats]

I guess this opens a spot on the 40 man roster.  I wonder who gets that and what it will mean when it happens.

[zenser]

Great!  Now what am I going to do with my Stauffer jersey!

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

Great!  Now what am I going to do with my Stauffer jersey!

Add it to the Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez, Sidney Ponson, and Ramon Ortiz pile?

[Jham]

 

I need x amount of veterans to start the year.  Standard operation, especially in the pen and rotation.

 

To me, Stauffer was a necessary risk that didn't work out.  Everyone saw how our bull pen collapsed last year.  Everyone pointed to the pen as a weakness going into the year.  We had to do something, and Stauffer was coming off an ok year.  Similar to the Jered Burton signing in my eyes.  Just didn't work out.

I do not perceive lack of trust in young players to be a huge problem.  We relied on Hicks for like 3 years now, and each year he's screwed us to some extent.  This year was less because Robinson put together a decent first month.  Danny Santana screwed us.  Vargas and Arcia have screwed us.  Imagine if we hadn't signed Torii Hunter.  I think it's a bigger mistake to trust AAA success over a Major League track record.  But here's the thing, you can have both IF you take the risk and bring in some vets.  You can always replace them with young guys if they warrant the call or the veteran falters.  Out of our FA signings, Hunter has worked out, Nunez has contributed, and Robinson has contributed.  Stauffer did not.  Santana hasn't played.  

Meanwhile, Pinto has flopped, Santana has flopped, Buxton and Sano aren't ready.  Burdi has imploded.  Reed hasn't been much better.  Arcia, Vargas, Walker and Hicks seems stuck in a state of arrested development.  It's as Ann as the nose on Plain's face, organizational depth requires some Stauffers.  
 

[howieramone2]

 

Right, but their lack of trust in Stauffer is pretty justifiable based on his performance.  Their lack of trust in Graham seems to be completely due to his inexperience, as he has performed well.

 

Lack of trust in young players due to inexperience seems to speak to a much larger problem, which is only going to get exhasperated going forward.

Could you provide specifics on that much larger problem, and how it is going to be exasperated going forward?

[tobi0040]

 

To me, Stauffer was a necessary risk that didn't work out.  Everyone saw how our bull pen collapsed last year.  Everyone pointed to the pen as a weakness going into the year.  We had to do something, and Stauffer was coming off an ok year.  Similar to the Jered Burton signing in my eyes.  Just didn't work out.

I do not perceive lack of trust in young players to be a huge problem.  We relied on Hicks for like 3 years now, and each year he's screwed us to some extent.  This year was less because Robinson put together a decent first month.  Danny Santana screwed us.  Vargas and Arcia have screwed us.  Imagine if we hadn't signed Torii Hunter.  I think it's a bigger mistake to trust AAA success over a Major League track record.  But here's the thing, you can have both IF you take the risk and bring in some vets.  You can always replace them with young guys if they warrant the call or the veteran falters.  Out of our FA signings, Hunter has worked out, Nunez has contributed, and Robinson has contributed.  Stauffer did not.  Santana hasn't played.  

Meanwhile, Pinto has flopped, Santana has flopped, Buxton and Sano aren't ready.  Burdi has imploded.  Reed hasn't been much better.  Arcia, Vargas, Walker and Hicks seems stuck in a state of arrested development.  It's as Ann as the nose on Plain's face, organizational depth requires some Stauffers.  
 

 

He has not had an ERA+ of over 97 since 2010. i.e. he was not even league average the four prior years before we signed him.

 

So we gave a guy that was not league average a deal that almost guaranteed him to be the highest paid reliever on thi team on a per inning basis.  So the risk/reward here made absolutely no sense at all.

 

He was no more likely to put up better numbers than Oliveros, Tonkin, or Achter.

 

Burdi' overall ERA is no good (4.44), but he has basically done the same thing he did last year.  Have a few really bad outings out of the gate (1.2 IP and 4 ER, 6 BB), then been very good (24.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 26 K, 10 BB).  And gotten better as the year has gone on. In his last 10 he has gone (17 IP, 1.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21 K and only 4 BB).

 

 

Edited June 11, 2015 by tobi0040

[Linus]

I would like to second the notion that, while Stauffer was essentially useless, Tonkin needs to be a whole lot better than he has been.  Opportunities for him haven't been the problem - he really hasn't pitched that well.

 

So the only real difference we know for sure is that Tonkin is younger.  Better or more talented remains to be seen.

[Gene Larkin]

 

I guess this opens a spot on the 40 man roster.  I wonder who gets that and what it will mean when it happens.

At some point, the Twins will have to add Ervin Santana back to the 40-man

[Shane Wahl]

It would be totally ridiculous to keep Tonkin at AAA. He has to get the real extended look with the Twins for the rest of the year so they can wrap up his case one way or the other.

 

No onto Lester Oliveros . . .

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And Stauffer should be at the top of that fresh list. The Twins have used Stauffer in extremely low leverage situations all year, put him on the disabled list for a very dubious injury, recalled him long before they needed to and then put him back into low-leverage situations the rest of the year.

For 2015, Stauffer has a 0.6 average game-entering Leverage Index at B-Ref, ahead of only Graham.

For 2014 with the Padres, he was at 0.7, lowest on the team among relievers with more than 15 appearances.

 

Which gives you an idea of how he was viewed by the Padres (and in what environment he compiled his decent numbers there).