Article: His Name Is Walker. Adam Brett Walker

[Cody Christie]

Last season Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo were hitting home runs out of minor league parks at an alarming rate. Now each of these minor league home run leaders is making their mark at the big league level.With Bryant and Gallo graduated to baseball's highest level, there will almost certainly be a new minor league home run champion this season. Twins prospect Adam Brett Walker is in the running for this title after a quick start to his season. He's hitting home runs at one of the best rates of his career and he leads all of minor league baseball after clubbing his sixteenth home run on Tuesday night.

 

Hitting home runs isn't something new for Walker. He has been leaving his mark on every league as he has moved up a level each season since being drafted in the third round of the 2012 MLB Draft. He's also been younger than the hitters at each level including being a year younger than the hitters in the Southern League this season.

 

During his professional debut, Walker only played in 58 games but he was able to crank 14 home runs and compile a .805 OPS. He made the jump to the Midwest League in 2013 and hit a career high 27 home runs and combined for a .844 OPS. The Florida State League can be tough on hitters but Walker still managed to hit 25 home runs, but his OPS dropped a little over 100 points.

 

Walker has been on a tear to start the 2015 campaign. He's hitting .262/.314/.576 (.891) with 32 extra-base hits in 56 games. His highest OPS in any season so far has been .844 back in 2013. His 16 home runs are well on pace to break his career high of 27 long balls. He leads the Southern League in home runs, extra base hits, RBI and slugging percentage.

 

Even with the hot start to the season, Walker's game does come with some flaws. His batting average continues to be low, a below .260 career batting average, even as he hits for a lot of power. His big swing also results in loads of strikeouts. He struck out 115 times in 2013 and he struck out 156 times, more than once a game, in 2014. This year he has already struck out 80 times in 224 plate appearances.

 

Walker's defense has also been a cause for concern. Walker has a career .969 fielding percentage with most of his time spent in right field. His career high in errors was 2014 when he was charged with six. This season he already has four errors but he is playing left field for the first time in his professional career.

 

As Walker gets closer to the big leagues and faces more experienced pitchers, it seems likely his strikeout rate will rise and his contact rate will continue to decline. His first taste of the high minors is off to a fast start but there are still areas of his game to improve. If he could make more consistent contact and cut back on some of his defensive miscues, his prospect stock would continue to rise.

 

Walker might get lost in the shuffle of other big name prospects in the Twins system but his strong start to 2015 is something to watch. He keeps hitting the ball out of the park and that's something that can keep a player moving through an organization's farm system so don't forget his name.

 

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[GMinTraining]

I know why people think he is not special - But this is why I think he is Special.

 

2015 Minor League Stats in AA
*#1 HR hitter in minor league baseball
*#3 RBI hitter in minor league baseball

*#3 Runs Scored in AA baseball
*.322 ISO
*.902 OPS
*.152 wRC+
*.405 w/OBA
*.309 BA away games
*.344 BA in June
*.545 BA with runner on 2nd base & 1.747 OPS
*.429 BA with runner on 3rd base & 1.357 OPS
*.339 BA with runners in scoring position & 1.122 OPS

Championships in 2 of 3 years completed in minors.  Best record in baseball the other year.  First place team this year.  Just one of his  many intangibles.

[nicksaviking]

I think he is special, I just think his one flaw, his inability to lay off pitches, is an insurmountable achilles heel.  He's got to at least partially cover that issue up or all his talent will be wasted.  And he does have tons of talent, more than nearly any other prospect.  It's a crack in the dam that can't go unchecked.

 

This shouldn't be a surprise though, it's nothing new, we see the inverse happen all the time.  The Twins have had tons of pitchers in the system with great velocity, a killer slider and good offspeed stuff, but they never make it because they can't pitch IN the zone.

 

It should be much easier to fix the hitter though as he is the reactionary part of the equation.  All he has to do is, well, do nothing.  Stand still and keep the bat on his shoulder more. 

 

It's kind of frustrating.  It's like a smoker saying they can't stop, even though the act of getting into the car, driving to the gas station and buying a pack takes a ton more effort than sitting on your couch and doing nothing.  Fight the urge!

Edited June 11, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Willihammer]

Remember that HR he hit off Matt Barnes in spring training? It was a 95 mph fastball that he hit on a rope over the left field wall. Is that indicative of Walker's approach? Is he a dead fastball hitter?

 

Trying to get a bead on what exactly is the issue with him.

[Steve Lein]

Walker is certainly one of the most interesting guys in all of the minors if you ask me. The HR power is certainly legit.

 

That's his issue as well though. That's all he's shown. It's certainly a tool that can carry him, but it's hard to get overly excited about a strict DH.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm very encouraged by his start in AA... I agree with those that say that his one big flaw (strike zone management) will hurt as he gets to the big leagues, but that's why he needs to stay at the level all season.I want to see 1st half K rate compared to 2nd half K rate. That's the number I'll be looking at most... along with the HR, RBI, SLG, etc, of course.

 

 

[Steven Buhr]

Outside of Sping Training, I haven't seen Walker in person since 2013, but are we absolutely sure that the reason for his high K numbers is strike zone recognition?

 

What I seem to recall is a guy with a very fast (and powerful) swing that gets through the zone quickly. His bat doesn't stay in the strike zone very long. He either makes contact or he swings through the ball, not a lot in between.

 

Yeah he would get fooled on some outside breaking balls, but no more than a lot of guys. What he didn't do was hit a lot of balls off the handle or off the end of the bat because he was just a little early or just a little late with his swing. So, he wouldn't have the ground outs or weak fly balls that some guys would get rather than a K. Of course, he also wouldn't get the bloop hits and "ground ball with eyes" other guys would, either.

 

If cutting down on strikeouts comes at the cost of having him cut back on his power swing, I don't know that I'd want that. His value, whatever it may eventually be, is going to stem from his power.

 

I do think he eschews walks too much. Maybe it's because he swings at bad pitches, as most believe, but I wonder if it's because he simply doesn't see his path to the big leagues being hastened by taking more walks, as opposed to racking up more extra-base hits and driving in more of those runners who get on base ahead of him.

 

If it's a conscious decision on his part, only time will tell if he's right about what approach gets him to the Show quickest.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Steven BUHR

[goulik]

Id like to hear Radcliffe or Ryan talk about what they see and need to see. Has Mientkewizc said anything publicly like he did Polanco?

[John Kelsey]

 

Id like to hear Radcliffe or Ryan talk about what they see and need to see. Has Mientkewizc said anything publicly like he did Polanco?

 

I seem to remember Mientkiewicz saying ABW was his most improved player from last year. Not sure if he's said anything beyond that though. 

[jorgenswest]

Walker swings at 33.2% pitches out of the zone. Only Kepler has a greater rate among Chattanooga players. Of the out of zone pitches, he only makes contact on 45.2%. That is the lowest among the Lookouts. It is a worrisome combination. You either need to be able to lay off pitches out of the zone or do a better job of making contact with those pitches.

 

Kepler for example swings at 33.8% of pitches out of the zone but makes contact with 72.6% of those. Sano is the other end, he has a 50.5% out of the zone contact rate while swing at 21.9% of pitches out of the zone.

 

There have been several thoughts on Walker lately. I studied other players with high K + high ISO rates in AA and looked to see how often they found success at the major league level.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6625-adam-walker-looking-for-comps/

[ExpectMorePayLess]

From an article in Star Tribune

 

“He’s striking out the same as he did last year but they look so much better, if that’s possible,” Mientkiewicz said. “He’s my most improved hitter in the lineup.”

 

Mientkiewicz admits he was “worried” about Walker facing Class AA pitching initially because of the way he looked striking out last season.

 

“The strikeouts alarmed you,” he said. “They were so non-competitive at times.”
Walker is batting .261 this season. He leads the league in RBI (46) and is second in slugging percentage (.573). He’s also showing better discipline at the plate.

 

Mientkiewicz credits hitting coach Chad Allen for that, and a running bet Allen made with Walker.

 

Walker struggles with pitches at his knees, so either he or Allen buys a steak dinner every few weeks depending on Walker’s ability to avoid swinging at low pitches. Coaches don’t even mind if Walker takes a third strike slightly below his knees.

 

“The more he makes the guy elevate the ball,” Mientkiewicz said, “the more balls fly over the fence.”

 

Walker lost the most recent bet.
“If I get a pitch up in the zone and I get the barrel to it, good stuff usually happens,” he said.

[Willihammer]

Also mentioned in that article:

 

 

Too often he swings and misses, especially on offspeed pitches, a puzzle he will need to solve to keep advancing up the organizational ladder.

http://www.startribune.com/adam-brett-walker-is-long-on-power-short-on-consistency/306439531/

 

That seems consistent with a BP scouting report from last year: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=99

[drivlikejehu]

Same profile Walker had as a college player. His flaws are so severe that he dropped to the 3rd round despite huge raw power. His prospect status now is mediocre for the exact same reasons.

Edited June 11, 2015 by drivlikejehu

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Making a football reference, he reminds me of the otherworldly fast/explosive WR that can't catch or run a route other than a 9. The power=speed, bb's=route running, and contact or K's=catching the ball. Maybe a Troy Williamson for Vikings fans.

 

Although it is entirely possible that ABW somehow harnesses his immense athletic ability, while also learning to make more contact and walk more...I personally don't think it's likely. At least not enough to be a good MLB player. He hits a lot of HR's in the minors because he's in the lineup everyday. I just don't think any MLB team could find a way to justify keeping him in the lineup everyday, with likely having more well rounded options at their disposal. 

 

If he cuts down on his k% and goes from currently atrocious to just really bad, and learns to walk at a 10% clip, he could be really useful. But, he really isn't showing any signs that he will do that, and he is only in AA. Just cutting the K's by 10% in the minors still makes him a severely flawed MLB hopeful. 

 

I think he is fun to follow and is a good side story, but not all that confident that he serves much use to the big league club at any point, other than a pinch hitter and occasional DH. I haven't watched him and do not know if the problem is his swing, pitch recognition, work ethic, or other factors...so I am keeping hope alive that he is fixable to some degree. 

 

One thing that caught my attention was reading an article about Joey Gallo today on Fangraphs, where he states that the minor league strike zone is much bigger than the MLB strike zone. Not sure how accurate that is, but that seems like it might at least benefit power hitters a little bit once they reach the majors, if they are able to recognize and take advantage of it. 

 

Anyway, I am cheering for him to make it and think that power would be fun to watch. I am just being a realist, not a pessimist in regards to his future chances (seems like realism is not allowed at this site if it doesn't paint everything as best case scenario, like Danny Santana's previous or current Twins success not likely to last.) I wonder how close he is to Buxton and Sano, and if they have or can help him? Further on that note, any word how tight any of those three are to each other?

[jimbo92107]

It's a classic problem for power hitters. A hard swing usually means you have to start it early, so if a pitcher (like Pelfrey) can throw something with late breaking action, they can make you look like a fool.

 

The problem for Walker is that a lot of major league pitchers can throw a pitch with late breaking action. That's why they're in the majors, they miss bats. The art of hitting at the major league level involves a lot of internal processing of what pitches you're going to look for from a particular pitcher. Brian Dozier has developed a nice formula with the help of Tom Brunanski. He looks for pitches mostly in the middle, trying to drive them flat. But if he sees high and inside, he pounces with those quick hands and bashes it into the left field seats.

 

Walker needs to develop a more sophisticated plan for pitch recognition. I'm sure he and his coaches already know this. A little more plate discipline is AB Walker's ticket to the majors.

 

Doesn't it seem like some aspiring old hitters and software programmers could come up with a VR program to train hitters how to recognize what's coming? You could integrate all the pro tips like a couple dozen physical tells from the pitcher, situational analysis, etc. Then see if the player could guess what's coming and who can guess the soonest. I bet Joe Mauer would be good at that.

 

[Kwak]

Forgotten in the discussion--playing a position adequately.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I seem to remember Mientkiewicz saying ABW was his most improved player from last year. Not sure if he's said anything beyond that though. 

 

On Reusse's show a few weeks ago, Mientkiewicz said that the biggest thing that Chad Allen is working on with Walker is not swinging at anything at his knees or lower. To me, that means recognizing pitches, and staying away from those sliders in the dirt.

 

IF (and yes, big if, he can learn that and keep swinging at pitches up in the zone... could be scary.

[mudcat14]

ABWII started this season in the #7 hole in the batting order.  He's worked up to #5 recently.  At Cedar Rapids in 2013, he was usually around  #5-7.  Not sure where he was in the order at Ft. Meyers in 2014. I do know he's leading in the race for his 3rd consecutive RBI Crown, despite not hitting directly behind the table-setters.  In his 2012 Rookie league campaign, he finished 4th.  The guy is a flat out run producer!  A .250 BA and a lot of K's ain't always a bad thing if you're still putting numbers on the board. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Same profile Walker had as a college player. His flaws are so severe that he dropped to the 3rd round despite huge raw power. His prospect status now is mediocre for the exact same reasons.

 

And, I had him at 12-14 before the season - which says he can be a solid MLBer, or AAAA type, but again, if those flaws start to get figured out, and he must be making some adjustments because as he's moved up, the numbers have generally stayed the same... who knows. He's still young.

 

And, he was a Top 100 guy in the draft, that's still pretty strong.

[GMinTraining]

 

Also mentioned in that article:

 

Too often he swings and misses, especially on off speed pitches, a puzzle he will need to solve to keep advancing up the organizational ladder.

 

Just a note: that  quote came from the writer of the article - not Mientkiewicz

[GMinTraining]

I am still waiting for someone to comment on Walker's below listed saber metrics.  Does his wRC+ or w/OBA excite you in any way?  Do those amazingly high numbers mean anything in terms of prospect promise?  These numbers are listed as "EXCELLENT" on the Fangraph scale for each category.  Higher than Above Average & Great on the scale.  Thoughts..........

*.322 ISO
*.902 OPS
*.152 wRC+
*.405 w/OBA

Edited June 11, 2015 by GMinTraining

[mudcat14]

 

I am still waiting for someone to comment on Walker's below listed saber metrics.  Does his wRC+ or w/OBA excite you in any way?  Do those amazingly high numbers mean anything in terms of prospect promise?  These numbers are listed as "EXCELLENT" on the Fangraph scale for each category.  Higher than Above Average & Great on the scale.  Thoughts..........

*.322 ISO
*.902 OPS
*.152 wRC+
*.405 w/OBA

I must admit GM, I'm not into cyber-metrics.  Not that I don't believe them.  I'm just not very bright.  But I assume those numbers essentially add up to an increase in the "R" column on the scoreboard. 

 

I've been watching Chattanooga a lot on the MiLB website and Walker doesn't seem to swing out of his shoes like Arcia does.  That leads me to believe there is hope for him to reduce his K rate a lttle and appease a few of the nay-sayers.  Don't get me started on Oswaldo, though.  What a waste.

[Steve Lein]

What Kwak said also...

 

(Walker is not an outfielder like Arcia is not an outfielder)

[drivlikejehu]

 

And, I had him at 12-14 before the season - which says he can be a solid MLBer, or AAAA type, but again, if those flaws start to get figured out, and he must be making some adjustments because as he's moved up, the numbers have generally stayed the same... who knows. He's still young.

 

And, he was a Top 100 guy in the draft, that's still pretty strong.

 

Well Walker is a decent athlete with huge raw power, that's a no-brainer lotto ticket in the 3rd round. A generic third-rounder has a minimal chance of contributing in the Majors anyway, so why not?

 

The fact he's right-handed doesn't help, either, because it limits his platoon value. Maybe if he was a great defender in RF, but that's not the case.

[AlwaysinModeration]

How about the Twins platoon ABW with Kolton Kendrick?

[BoomBoom]

Only Twin Prospect voted Mid-season, Post-season, and Organizational All Star in last 2 1/2 years.  Just making a point.

 

Point being - League managers and Twins front office personnel respect his overall game based on production.  

 

Production is what carries All Star teams at every level and even Hall of Fame votings.  Please don't jump on the Hall of Fame part.  Just making a point.

 

Point being - PRODUCTION DOES MATTER

 

Walkers production has been an organizational best for years.  His AA start is his best to date.  Every point on this thread is about what he probably won't be able to do at the next level.  Just making a point.

 

Point being - If you see a UFO, is it really a UFO?  If you don't believe in UFO's, the answer will be No regardless to what you see.  Walkers is that UFO and regardless to what you see (production) -  He does leave room for reasonable doubt.  

 

For me - I'm going to trust my eyes and his production consistency.  

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Most XBH in System

 

2B  -  3B  -  HR

15  -  02  -  16  Walker  (33) 

18  -  03  -  11  Dozier  (32)

07  -  12  -  06  Buxton  (25)

16  -  02  -  07  Ortiz  (25)

17  -  04  -  02  Kepler  (23)

10  -  02  -  09  Plouffe  (21)

15  -  02  -  03  Harrison  (20)

 

Just shows he does more than just hit HRs.  It is often said that a guy with 2B power can or will turn into HR power as they get older and stronger.  What does that mean for a guy who shows 2B and HR power?

[nicksaviking]

 

Most XBH in System

 

2B  -  3B  -  HR

15  -  02  -  16  Walker  (33) 

18  -  03  -  11  Dozier  (32)

07  -  12  -  06  Buxton  (25)

16  -  02  -  07  Ortiz  (25)

17  -  04  -  02  Kepler  (23)

10  -  02  -  09  Plouffe  (21)

15  -  02  -  03  Harrison  (20)

 

Just shows he does more than just hit HRs.  It is often said that a guy with 2B power can or will turn into HR power as they get older and stronger.  What does that mean for a guy who shows 2B and HR power?

 

Not a whole lot if he still chases pitches out of the zone and can't hit breaking balls.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wood--002ric

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=restov001mic

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mottol001cha

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=borcha001jos

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=harvey002rya

 

All of those guys except for Harvey could get on base too. 

[clutterheart]

Walker is doing amazing things with the bat.  But his SOs, BBs, OPB is horrid.  - Historically horrid when you compare that to his other numbers.  As a prospect he is a bad prospect because he is not improving where he needs to improve.  

 

BUT he could be the guy who is the exception that proves the sabermetrical rule because his power is just so damn elite.  

That power could carry him to the MLB in a few years  Or he could be playing for the St Paul Saints in a few years.

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Is it possible he is exactly where he needs to be?

 

His offensive output should leave us encouraged for the future.

His strike out numbers should point to the hard work in front of him before he is ready for the major leagues.

 

He is succeeding in AA and he still has work to do at that level. I expect that he will continue that work in AAA in 2016 and contribute at the major league level in 2017 having improved his ability to judge the strike zone.

 

Can I both believe in his production and realize is has some hard work in front of him?