Article: Twins Lack Punch From Middle Of The Order

[Parker Hageman]

Once a prime contributor to the Minnesota Twins’ early season surge to the top of the American League Central, third baseman Trevor Plouffe has suddenly gone cold in the heart of the order.

 

Unfortunately for the team, Joe Mauer shares similar woes at the plate. Since the beginning of June, the Twins are hitting a league-worst .119 (8-for-67) with just two extra base hits over the last nine games. In order to compete for a playoff berth, they will need better production from the middle of their order.

 

 

Is this the beginning of a large slump for Plouffe or will he return to his early-season form?For Plouffe, April and May were extremely successful months in the batter's’ box. In the season’s first two months he helped buoy the middle of the order -- one that was vacated by Torii Hunter early in the season. At the end of May, he was holding the second-highest OPS on the team as well as a robust .721 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position. Plouffe was productive at all the right times which helped propel the Twins’ offense forward and confounded analysts attempting to explain how the Minnesota ballclub was on top of their division.

 

Admittedly, the turn of the calendar is an arbitrary moment in the baseball season; nothing changes in the competition or in the player just because it is Ms. June’s time to shine on the clubhouse wall. That notwithstanding, Plouffe has appeared like an entirely different hitter this stretch. Mired in an extended 2-for-32 slump -- one which he showed signs of shaking off on Tuesday night by lashing a triple off the wall in right field -- Plouffe is wrestling with the toughest element of the game: adjusting to a new plan of attack.

 

In the days bygone, reports traveled by word of tobacco-filled mouth. Now information is binary and able to be downloaded, disseminated and acted upon by the very next game. But baseball’s information game is a two-way street. The pitchers are armed with data and the hitters are prepared in kind. “We get so much information it can choke a cow,” Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky likes to say about the flow of knowledge pertaining to his area of expertise. So shouldn’t hitters be just as prepared as their pitcher counterparts?

 

While baseball’s hitter-pitcher matchup should behave like a stalemate cold war, the fact is the advantage often goes to the player who possesses the ball and is able to throw the pitch he wants.

 

The problem for hitters is that the game never sleeps. Not for a second. Coaches, pitchers, scouts, and front office analysts are all trying to find the right combination that will get you out. If you were hitting balls hard in a certain situations, with a certain pitch, in a certain area of the zone, there is a strong chance that things will change the next time around. That has essentially happened to Plouffe. After showing that he could drive the ball on the outer-half to the opposite field, teams have tried something else.

 

Somewhere between the end of May and the beginning of June, pitchers started to add another wrinkle. In the first two months pitchers would hammer him away with fastballs (40% inner-half of the zone). However, since the beginning of his slump, they have shifted that attack inside just off the plate (60% inner-half) and Plouffe has been unable to resist or put the ball in play effectively.

 

The ESPN TruMedia heat maps below show how pitchers have shifted from throwing fastballs away to the inside portion:

 

Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (2).png

 

 

Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (3).png

There has been a concerted effort particularly by right-handed pitchers to pound two-seamers in off the plate on Plouffe. In Fenway against the Red Sox, Plouffe offered at a running fastball that was down-and-in on a an one-one count:

 

http://i.imgur.com/J00dTNw.gif

 

When the Brewers visited, Milwaukee reliever Jeremy Jeffress also ran a fastball in off the plate which Plouffe bounced out on a one-oh count:

 

http://i.imgur.com/9tVPm4o.gif

 

Those types of pitches look appetizing coming in before they burrow their way into the bat handle at the point of contact.

 

Not surprising, Plouffe’s chase rate grew in June as well with the majority being swings at pitches inside off the plate. This expansion of the zone has led to weaker contact as well as a drop in walks. Possibly because of his determination to drive runners in, Plouffe’s walk rate suffered in this time as well. Dating back to May 21, he has drawn just one walk in 62 plate appearances.

 

To be fair, 30-plus plate appearances is not a real concern. It just takes a few decent at-bats to help pull a hitter out of the funk and the stretch will be forgotten. However, with the added issue of Joe Mauer’s lack of production in front of him, it has exacerbated the problem for the team overall. If the Twins expect to continue to battle for a top spot in the division, they will need Trevor Plouffe to re-calibrate quickly.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

The issue for the middle of the order isn't one player.......but yes, Plouffe has struggled. Mauer is a major issue for this team, like, going to really hurt them for years.

 

They have chosen to carry 13 pitchers, and love Escobar for some reason. To me, those and Mauer are the real issues here. The odd roster construction and Mauer's current skill set are the real issues.

[USAFChief]

The issue is, they LACK a middle of the order.

 

Mauer doesn't belong hitting third, but what are the options?

 

Plouffe should be a six or seven hitter in a good offense, but what are the options? Same for Hunter.

 

I agree with Mike, though...Mauer unable to put up a .700 OPS is the biggest issue. It was shocking to see Boston put their RFer into the right center field gap whenever Mauer came to the plate. Teams have decided they no longer need to defend right field against him.

[IndyTwinsFan]

 

The issue is, they LACK a middle of the order.

Mauer doesn't belong hitting third, but what are the options?

Plouffe should be a six or seven hitter in a good offense, but what are the options? Same for Hunter.

I agree with Mike, though...Mauer unable to put up a .700 OPS is the biggest issue. It was shocking to see Boston put their RFer into the right center field gap whenever Mauer came to the plate. Teams have decided they no longer need to defend right field against him.

Regarding the last sentence, I might add that the opposition seems to be getting away with this strategy, for the most part.   Why he can't, or seemingly won't regularly try to beat the extreme shifts he sees is beyond my ability to comprehend or understand.   Until or unless this happens, he's not doing himself or anyone else on the team any favors.

 

Did you mean to say right field?   From what I've seen, that doesn't appear to be the problem.

[drjim]

Mauer clearly deseves blame.

 

Also would have been nice if one (or two or even three) of Vargas/Arcia/Pinto decided to show up this year. Any of them would look nice in the middle of the order.

[Dantes929]

Hitters slump.  They will do better than bat .119 because they are all better than .119 hitters.    Mauer's problem isn't the shift IMO.   The problem is not squaring up the ball.  Its missing pitches he used to hit for line drives.    The whole team is slumping but that can change in a matter of days.   I agree if Mauer continues to bat like he has then he will be a big problem.   Best current option is to plug Polanco into the lineup.   We need a spark.

[Parker Hageman]

It was shocking to see Boston put their RFer into the right center field gap whenever Mauer came to the plate. Teams have decided they no longer need to defend right field against him.

 

 

 

I'll start by prefacing my comment as this was not a post about Joe Mauer but, like all things, it ALWAYS turns into a discussion about Joe Mauer, right? I had to mention Mauer in the post because if I didn't, the comment section would be only remarks about not mentioning Mauer.

 

The OF shift shouldn't be a shock. I detailed that development early last year (http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-what-is-going-on-with-joe-mauer-here-s-the-data/261202251/). Teams are just responding to what his batted ball profile indicates.

 

Even with all the efforts this spring to work on being a better pull hitter, he still doesn't elevate the ball to right field -- it's mostly grounders (70%) or liners (25%).

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also would have been nice if one (or two or even three) of Vargas/Arcia/Pinto decided to show up this year. Any of them would look nice in the middle of the order.

True, but that was a known risk.  Pinto has never really profiled as a middle-of-the-order bat, and both Vargas and Arcia were not that far above average as hitters last year with somewhat alarming peripherals.

[Vanimal46]

Plouffe has shown year over year that he's a streaky hitter. We're witnessing the annual slump now, and hopefully the high points make up for the slumps.

 

Mauer was a questionable #3 hitter even in the 90+ loss days, and this season it's painful to see how slow his bat has become. However like others have mentioned, it's not like we have a lot of options to fix it this year. Hopefully Vargas can wake up and seize the opportunity.

[jokin]

I'll start by prefacing my comment as this was not a post about Joe Mauer but, like all things, it ALWAYS turns into a discussion about Joe Mauer, right? I had to mention Mauer in the post because if I didn't, the comment section would be only remarks about not mentioning Mauer.

 

The OF shift shouldn't be a shock. I detailed that development early last year (http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-what-is-going-on-with-joe-mauer-here-s-the-data/261202251/). Teams are just responding to what his batted ball profile indicates.

 

Even with all the efforts this spring to work on being a better pull hitter, he still doesn't elevate the ball to right field -- it's mostly grounders (70%) or liners (25%).

 

chart.png

 

Thanks Parker. You do the work so we don't have to.

 

And looking at the spray chart, I count 15 LD to RF, I'm guessing 13 of which came in April. He's really been a different hitter since then, right back to his old bad habits of 2014, when the shifts really began to take their toll on his production numbers.

 

Mauer LD% April: 36.1% OPS .804

Mauer LD% May/June: 16.5% OPS .598

Edited June 10, 2015 by jokin

[Mike Sixel]

I thought this was a post about the lack of hitting in the meat of the order.......isn't Mauer part of that (along with Plouffe and others)?

 

I stand by my contention, the issues stem from the roster makeup, and not really having more than 2 legit MLB hitters right now that people can count on, maybe three. Dozier, Hunter, Plouffe are it, relative to the other players at their positions. That's it. This isn't, imo, about Plouffe's slump, it is about the roster.

[drjim]

 

True, but that was a known risk.  Pinto has never really profiled as a middle-of-the-order bat, and both Vargas and Arcia were not that far above average as hitters last year with somewhat alarming peripherals.

 

Of course this is true, but they have talent and there can be some expectations. 

 

It seems to always come back to the front office, but also not against the rules for players to take the opportunities they are given and perform.

[Parker Hageman]

I thought this was a post about the lack of hitting in the meat of the order.......isn't Mauer part of that (along with Plouffe and others)?

 

 

No, headline aside, the post is about Plouffe's struggles. 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, headline aside, the post is about Plouffe's struggles. 

 

My apologies.

 

Yes, Plouffe is struggling. And, I did read it, I thought you were just commenting on part of it (and including Mauer threw me off, I admit it).

 

I will be bummed if Plouffe reverts, he seems like a guy that had figured it out.

Edited June 10, 2015 by mike wants wins

[Willihammer]

Isn't Plouffe's natural stroke to pull the ball? I have to think the counter-adjustment should be relatively easy/quick.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It seems to always come back to the front office, but also not against the rules for players to take the opportunities they are given and perform.

Sorry, didn't mean for that to sound critical of the front office.  But Pinto and Vargas weren't great bets to be middle of the order bats in 2015, so it's hard to blame the player too much.

 

Arcia should have been able to repeat his 2013-2014 performance, which would have helped (although I guess he was starting to repeat that performance when he got hurt, which is another issue he's had).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Plouffe has shown year over year that he's a streaky hitter.

This is what I was going to say too.  He's actually not unlike Pelfrey in that regard, who was pretty up-and-down with Mets and is just finally getting around to having an "up" period in a Twins uniform.

 

Obviously it would be awesome if guys like that could be better and more consistently good, but I wouldn't expect or rely on it happening.  We need to add another bat in the middle of the lineup.  (I was half-expecting this article would riff on bringing up Sano...)

[Parker Hageman]

 

My apologies.

 

Yes, Plouffe is struggling. And, I did read it, I thought you were just commenting on part of it (and including Mauer threw me off, I admit it).

 

I will be bummed if Plouffe reverts, he seems like a guy that had figured it out.

 

Admittedly, Mauer does deserve a post all on his own.

[Jham]

 

I'll start by prefacing my comment as this was not a post about Joe Mauer but, like all things, it ALWAYS turns into a discussion about Joe Mauer, right? I had to mention Mauer in the post because if I didn't, the comment section would be only remarks about not mentioning Mauer.

 

The OF shift shouldn't be a shock. I detailed that development early last year (http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-what-is-going-on-with-joe-mauer-here-s-the-data/261202251/). Teams are just responding to what his batted ball profile indicates.

 

Even with all the efforts this spring to work on being a better pull hitter, he still doesn't elevate the ball to right field -- it's mostly grounders (70%) or liners (25%).

 

chart.png

 

I mean, the real real problem is that Mauer has lost bat speed.  It's made worse for Joe because he was a hitter who depended on letting the ball get deep.  He now has to guess, start his swing earlier, watch it less, and square it up more exactly.  Mauer's inability to lift the ball has lead to a ridiculous amount of double plays without offsetting 3 run shots.  I suggested this in an earlier Mauer thread, while others stated the stats weren't there.  Well, they're there now.

Most of Mauer's HR in prior years came to straight away center or left.  His first home run in Target Field was a bomb into the trees in center.  He's lost the power to go center or oppo.  He's in trouble.

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

I'll start by prefacing my comment as this was not a post about Joe Mauer but, like all things, it ALWAYS turns into a discussion about Joe Mauer, right? I had to mention Mauer in the post because if I didn't, the comment section would be only remarks about not mentioning Mauer.

 

The OF shift shouldn't be a shock. I detailed that development early last year (http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-what-is-going-on-with-joe-mauer-here-s-the-data/261202251/). Teams are just responding to what his batted ball profile indicates.

 

Even with all the efforts this spring to work on being a better pull hitter, he still doesn't elevate the ball to right field -- it's mostly grounders (70%) or liners (25%).

 

 

chart.png

Didnt mean to hijack, but...I've been watching baseball for 50 odd years. I've never seen a RFer as far off the line as what I saw in Boston. Not even for a dead pull RH hitter. Anything hit close to the RF corner would be an automatic stand up triple.

 

And they're not concerned about that.

 

Plouffe is in a slump. Most hitters go through them. He's miscast as a cleanup hitter, but he will come out of his slump.

 

Mauer is the elephant in the room, not Plouffe.

[Parker Hageman]

I mean, the real real problem is that Mauer has lost bat speed.

 

What makes you think he's lost bat speed?

[Vanimal46]

To elaborate more on Plouffe, this is pretty much on par of what we've seen out of him his whole career. I've accepted this out of Plouffe, and is one of the main reasons I only want to offer arbitration this off-season over a multi-year extension. I'll include some splits since 2012:

 

2012: June .327/.391/.735 11 HR 21 RBI

          July  .302/.343/.476 3 HR 9 RBI

          August .161/.232/.226 1 HR 7 RBI - bad September too

 

2013: May .292/.365/.477 2 HR 13 RBI

          June .321/.351/.528 3 HR 13 RBI

          July .189/.223/.300 3 HR 8 RBI

          August .196/.264/.330 2 HR 4 RBI - rebounded for a nice September

 

2014: April .304/.409/.478 1 HR 19 RBI

          May .204/.256/.381 4 HR 14 RBI

          July .219/.265/.375 2 HR 7 RBI

 

Do you want to give a streaky hitter like this a multi-year extension? I certainly don't.

[jimbo92107]

Mauer is stuck in the extremes of left or right field. He needs to get back to hitting basics: hammer some baseballs up the middle. Knock some pitchers over, drill some screaming liners over a CF's head. Hit the ball back the way it came, then later you can work on pulling and slicing.

[stringer bell]

There are problems with #3, #4, and #5 IMHO.  Mauer has hit like a #3 hitter for probably three weeks of the first 2+ months.  There is some respect for his skills, but no fear.  Make a mistake to him and you allow a single.  Make a mistake to a great hitter and the scoreboard changes. 

 

Plouffe is streaky and currently going poorly.  He will snap out of it and maybe he already has.  Since some time in May, he hasn't had much protection and that often wears on players. 

[Mike Sixel]

Re:streaky players....if at the end of the year you have good year long stats, are you less valuable if those came in streaks of great for 3 weeks and bad for 3 weeks than a guy that was good most weeks, but rarely in a great streak? Do we know he is really streaky, and we aren't using arbitrary dates?

[Halsey Hall]

 

I thought this was a post about the lack of hitting in the meat of the order.......isn't Mauer part of that (along with Plouffe and others)?

 

I stand by my contention, the issues stem from the roster makeup, and not really having more than 2 legit MLB hitters right now that people can count on, maybe three. Dozier, Hunter, Plouffe are it, relative to the other players at their positions. That's it. This isn't, imo, about Plouffe's slump, it is about the roster.

There's no maybe.  Plouffe can't be counted on.  He's always been cold, with short hot streaks thrown in.  He's a AAAA player. 

[Mike Sixel]

Except last year's stats and this year's disagree that he is AAAA, no matter how often you say it.

[Blackjack]

 

Mauer clearly deseves blame.

 

Also would have been nice if one (or two or even three) of Vargas/Arcia/Pinto decided to show up this year. Any of them would look nice in the middle of the order.

 

Wasn't there just a 'free Vargas' post not too long ago?? He was supposed to be the savior and really hasn't produced since he came back.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wasn't there just a 'free Vargas' post not too long ago?? He was supposed to be the savior and really hasn't produced since he came back.

That was 2 days ago, although admittedly he hasn't looked good in these 2 games.  (Not that he was going to be a savior, just offered more potential than Escobar/Nunez at DH.  I fully endorse seeking other options at DH too.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Re:streaky players....if at the end of the year you have good year long stats, are you less valuable if those came in streaks of great for 3 weeks and bad for 3 weeks than a guy that was good most weeks, but rarely in a great streak? Do we know he is really streaky, and we aren't using arbitrary dates?

Plouffe definitely was streaky in 2012, although less so the past few seasons.  But you're right, most players of his overall quality will look "streaky" when looking at their monthly splits.  More unusual would the average hitter who was roughly average every single month.