Article: What's The Best Plan For Tyler Jay?

[Nick Nelson]

They say that you should never draft for need with a high first-round pick, and I suspect that the Twins did believe that Tyler Jay was the best player on the board when they selected him sixth overall on Monday night.

 

But when you look at the landscape of this organization, it's tough not to notice that the dominating college lefty fills a significant void, whichever role he ends up falling into.Jay still needs to sign, but once that formality is taken care of, his future role becomes the hot topic. He worked almost exclusively as a reliever during his career at the University of Illinois, and while he was perhaps the most dominant collegiate closer in the nation this year, he has no experience handling a full-time starter's workload.

 

Terry Ryan stated that he plans to keep Jay in a relief role for the remainder of this season, but the team has expressed commitment to giving him a shot as a starter going forward. That makes sense; rarely does a club use a Top 10 draft pick on a pitcher who is designated a reliever right out of the gates, and many (though not all) scouts do believe that Jay could start thanks to his deep pitch repertoire, exceptional command and easy throwing motion.

 

A successful path might mirror that of Tyler Duffey, who currently ranks as one of the organization's most MLB-ready pitching prospects. Duffey was the closer for Rice University before being selected by the Twins in the fifth round of the 2012 draft, and finished out that year as a reliever at Elizabethton after signing, but he moved to full-season ball in 2013 and 18 of his 24 appearances came as a starter. He has been starting exclusively since then and has really taken to it, as he's now in Triple-A with a decent shot at debuting in the majors this summer.

 

Duffey, like nearly every top starter in the Twins' system, is a righty. The only left-handers that ranked among my top eight pitching prospects a few weeks ago were Taylor Rogers, who's known more for polish and command than overpowering stuff, and Stephen Gonsalves, a 20-year-old who is still likely several years away from the majors.

 

As a potentially fast-tracked lefty power arm, Jay would provide something that is currently amiss for the Twins if he can start. But he would also do so by remaining in his familiar relief role, and in that capacity he would be geared for a much faster impact with fewer foreseeable obstacles.

 

While the Twins' bullpen has been surprisingly effective this year, it is lacking quality left-handed options. Brian Duensing has been terrible and is probably in his last year with the club. Aaron Thompson and Caleb Thielbar are nothing special. And while the Twins have numerous high-upside relievers developing in the minors, nearly all them throw from the right side.

 

Jay has a chance to fill that void on the big-league club and he has a chance to do it very quickly. Baseball America suggested that the 21-year-old "could be the first player from the draft class to reach the majors if he stays in a relief role."

 

Consider that Brandon Finnegan, the college reliever selected 17th overall by the Royals last year, was up in the majors pitching key innings in September and October, and most consider Jay a superior talent.

 

The Royals sent Finnegan back to the minors to work on starting this year, but the results so far haven't been great, as his control has been a mess and he has yet to complete even five innings in a start. And while Duffey has been a success story up to this point, he's been the exception. Countless other college relievers that the Twins have drafted with thoughts of being converted to starters have failed to stick.

 

Attempting to move Jay into a starting role means gradually extending out his workload (his 66 innings this year are the most he's thrown in a high school or college season) and acclimating his arm to a very set of different demands. It's certainly not impossible, but it could be a lengthy process and the odds aren't stellar. Conversely, he could be pitching in a big-league bullpen by the end of the year and his chances of excelling in that role seem extremely good.

 

Obviously Jay would offer much more value as a starter if it worked out, but a lefty reliever who can dominate hitters from both sides and pitch multiple innings is a quality asset, and for what it's worth the Twins have built considerable starting pitching depth in the minors, which they have added to with some other picks in this draft.

 

What do you think? Would you try Jay as a starter, or would you rather commit to him as a reliever with the idea of getting him up to the big leagues, for good, as quickly as possible?

 

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[DocBauer]

Sign him, stretch him out as a starter and simply work with him. By the end of the season, you might have him finish in the pen to limit innings.

 

There is no need to rush him directly the majors for some short sighted motivation, then put him back in the minors to start. It will end up costing him development time as a starter. That may also lengthen his ML arrival timetable. And who wants that?

[nater79a]

I would use Jay as a reliever this year, keeping open the option of bringing him up to the big club if the need is there in August/September.  Next year I would begin the conversion to full time starter.

 

There is one downside I see. If Jay is indeed brought up to help the Twins later this season he would need to be added to the 40-man roster. He would remain on the 40-man for the next 1-3 years as he learns to be a starter. On the surface,would seem to be a waste of a valuable spot.

[kab21]

For this season there is no doubt that you keep as a RP.  Stretching someone out after an entire college baseball season (earlier start) sounds like a bad idea.  Next spring you stretch him out to be a starter.

 

Would the Twins actually go against convention and call Jay up in august?  This now gives them at least 3 hard throwing potentially dominant RP'ers to call up with Meyer (supposedly moving back to the rotation) and Burdi being the other two.

[h2oface]

I am still not assuming that the stretch run is coming, especially after losing 4 out of the last five games and hitting like all the pundits have said would happen. Relief this year for sure...... and if needed, use him. Team control is secondary to having a piece that could be helpful if the playoffs come.

[Seth Stohs]

For me, this year they should definitely keep him in the bullpen. They're saying he'll start at Cedar Rapids. I wouldn't even mind if they start him at ETown for 3-4 games just to get into it. 

 

I personally wouldn't go into it with any plans of getting him to the big leagues. If he dominates for 3-4-5 appearances in CR, move him up to FM. If he dominates for 3-4 games there, get him to AA. but I wouldn't force him to the big leagues. There are enough options up at the higher levels that Jay would have to be extraordinary to even be considered.

 

Then after resting this offseason, work him in as a starter.Start him in Ft. Myers, and again, let him get 4-5 starts and get to the 5-6 inning mark before moving him up... Then get him to AA... From there, he's just like any other prospect... he's got to earn his way up. As always, the goal should not be to get him to the big leagues fast. It should be for him to be ready when he does get there, whenever that is.

[Lonestar]

FWIW, Finnegan started 43 games in his career at TCU.  He went straight to A+ ball and started all 5 games there.  Then they promoted him and moved him to relief.

 

Didn't TCU go to the CWS in Finnegan's last year.  That means Jay will have relatively more rest. 

 

With the information I have, I would do the same thing the Royals did with Finnegan.

[SarasotaBill]

After watching Jay's start against Vandy, it's obvious he needs a change-up.

 

He probably never used his change-up since most hitters couldn't catch up to his hard stuff.

 

However, his fastball, curve, and slider look good.

 

Send him down to TN (tax reasons) and then bring him up to Cedar Rapids and just let him develop.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not sure Duffey is a good comp, as he was never the prospect Jay is.  I think moving Jay to the MLB pen would be a mistake as it may take two or three years to develop him as a starter.  One injury there and you now have an options issue.  If the Twins are still in competition in a month and need pen help, I'd start calling up some of the kids in AA/AAA first.

 

Personally, I'd probably put him in the Fort Meyers pen and have pitch 2-3 inning stints.  If he does well there, I'd promote him to Chatty pretty quick in a similar role.  Next year, he'd start at what level he finished as a starter. 

[Pitz]

With Jay's 66 innings already being a career high, how many more innings do you believe the Twins will have him throw this year? 

 

FWIW Burdi threw 20 innings between CR and FTM last year. But he also only threw 37 in his college season. I would be very surprised to see Jay with the big league club this season mostly because I don't see him throwing more than 20 innings.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not sure Duffey is a good comp, as he was never the prospect Jay is.  I think moving Jay to the MLB pen would be a mistake as it may take two or three years to develop him as a starter.  One injury there and you now have an options issue.  If the Twins are still in competition in a month and need pen help, I'd start calling up some of the kids in AA/AAA first.

 

Personally, I'd probably put him in the Fort Meyers pen and have pitch 2-3 inning stints.  If he does well there, I'd promote him to Chatty pretty quick in a similar role.  Next year, he'd start at what level he finished as a starter. 

 

Not speaking for Nick, but I don't think he's comparing Duffey to Jay from a pitching standpoint, just from the fact that Duffey is the only college reliever that has shifted to starting in the pros and had good success.

[Mike Sixel]

I would put him in FM as a reliever. If he is great for a month, promote him to AA. Probably shut him down after another month or so. Next year, send him to either CR or FM as a starter, probably CR.

[Dman]

I would let him play in Cedar Rapids as a relief pitcher and see how he does.  I guess if he is just completely dominant you could move him to high A.  Next year you try him as a starter and see how it goes.

 

I really believe this guy has what it takes to start and be really good.  He has the pitches he just needs to understand the mental and physical side of starting.  I think in time he will be a top of the rotation starter.  I know that is pie in the sky optimistic but scouts say he has very good control and good depth to his pitches he was dominant last year so I think it all adds up to a really good starting pitcher. Time will tell.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Duffey is the only college reliever that has shifted to starting in the pros and had good success.

Just for the Twins, I assume?  Are there other examples around the league?  I really don't know.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Royals sent Finnegan back to the minors to work on starting this year, but the results so far haven't been great, as his control has been a mess and he has yet to complete even five innings in a start.

In fairness to Finnegan, they've barely allowed him to work on starting.  He's been back and forth between roles and levels all season.  His high pitch count is only 62, so it's not as if he's really had a chance to fail as a starter yet.

[Bill Tanner]

 

Send him down to TN (tax reasons) and then bring him up to Cedar Rapids and just let him develop.

 

What are the tax reasons for starting him in Elizabethton?  Would have to be a pretty significant tax consequence to dictate where they start the kid.

[Steve Lein]

It looks a lot like this year will go exactly like Burdi's did after being drafted last year. Start him at Cedar Rapids, and if he excels get him to Fort Myers or Chattanooga. If Twins are still in it in August and they think he can help at that point, I would love to see him get called up to help out.

 

Then next year, you stretch him out into a starter.

 

I have no problem with having him pitch in relief for the rest of this season after he signs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It looks a lot like this year will go exactly like Burdi's did after being drafted last year. Start him at Cedar Rapids, and if he excels get him to Fort Myers or Chattanooga. If Twins are still in it in August and they think he can help at that point, I would love to see him get called up to help out.

 

Then next year, you stretch him out into a starter.

I guess if the Twins are still in it that late, most anything should be on the table.

 

But if he's anything short of a revelation in his minor league innings this year, it's probably not worth it.  

Finnegan had the benefit of being protected way down the KC depth chart -- he was almost a complete non-factor in the regular season, and primarily only proved useful in a couple postseason extra innings games.  I think a fresh reliever for the Twins could be more quickly exposed.

 

So, unless Jay can come up and sustain domination, we're probably better off using the 40-man spot to keep another prospect this winter, and not burning Jay's option years until we have some idea of how the starter conversion will go.

[Loosey]

Outside of having to get him on the 40 man roster I have no issue with starting him out at FM as a reliever and see how he does in 4-5 appearances.  If he is good move him to Chattanooga.  If he can take care of AA hitters pretty easily then if a time comes in August or September and the Twins are still in contention and need a lefty reliever, give him a taste of the Majors.  Then next spring stretch him out in Spring Training and start out at Fort Myers or Chattanooga depending on well he does in the spring.  Give him 2 years to figure out starting and hopefully have him in bigs starting in late 2017 or 2018.

[HitInAPinch]

 

For me, this year they should definitely keep him in the bullpen. They're saying he'll start at Cedar Rapids. I wouldn't even mind if they start him at ETown for 3-4 games just to get into it. 

 

I personally wouldn't go into it with any plans of getting him to the big leagues. If he dominates for 3-4-5 appearances in CR, move him up to FM. If he dominates for 3-4 games there, get him to AA. but I wouldn't force him to the big leagues. There are enough options up at the higher levels that Jay would have to be extraordinary to even be considered.

 

Then after resting this offseason, work him in as a starter.Start him in Ft. Myers, and again, let him get 4-5 starts and get to the 5-6 inning mark before moving him up... Then get him to AA... From there, he's just like any other prospect... he's got to earn his way up. As always, the goal should not be to get him to the big leagues fast. It should be for him to be ready when he does get there, whenever that is.

I really like your plan.  I'm assuming you mean that you start the stretching out process while working him as a reliever, correct? 

[ALessKosherScott]

Sign him. Send him to Cedar Rapids. Put him on a strict pitch count. See what happens. If he's dominating and you're still in contention, move him to the pen and see what happens. If he's simply doing pretty good, well, it's not worth a lot of discussion.

[Steve Lein]

 

I really like your plan.  I'm assuming you mean that you start the stretching out process while working him as a reliever, correct? 

 

I think he's already had the "stretching out process" started while working as a reliever. He pitched 3+ innings quite frequently for Illinois this year.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I think he's already had the "stretching out process" started while working as a reliever. He pitched 3+ innings quite frequently for Illinois this year.

HEY!  I didn't know that.  Thanks for the info!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think he's already had the "stretching out process" started while working as a reliever. He pitched 3+ innings quite frequently for Illinois this year.

Yes and no. Nine 3+ inning games this season, out of 30 appearances, but spread out quite a bit -- basically two every month.

 

His final two appearances in June totaled 10 innings, but in the month of May, he had 7 appearances, 10.1 innings, never topping 27 pitches.

[USAFChief]

The best plan?

 

Sign him tonight, have him on a plane to Arlington in the morning, in the pen for tomorrow night's game.

 

I'm only half kidding.

[jimmer]

'What's The Best Plan For Tyler Jay?'

 

Find a time machine, go back to the day of the draft, and pick Fulmer instead?  Is that an option?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

'What's The Best Plan For Tyler Jay?'

 

Find a time machine, go back to the day of the draft, and pick Fulmer instead?  Is that an option?

I luckily got to see both pitch this season, Fulmer with Vandy early in the season against Indiana State and Jay with the Illini  against Fordham and FGCU.  I'd take Jay any day over Fulmer.  Jay got the win in one game, faced two batters and struck them both out on a total of 8 pitches.  Next day Jay threw 4 1/3 IP in relief (71 pitches), the velocity held from beginning to end and the control didn't waiver.  I can't say the same for Carson Fulmer who didn't look as good, his velocity dropped a tick into the 4th/5th inning.  Honestly was expecting him to clean up with Indiana State.  Fulmer's delivery/mechanics/etc scare me especially if you think you can keep him as a starting pitcher.

Edited June 16, 2015 by Bob Sacamento

[jimmer]

 

I luckily got to see both pitch this season, Fulmer with Vandy early in the season against Indiana State and Jay with the Illini  against Fordham and FGCU.  I'd take Jay any day over Fulmer.  Jay got the win in one game, faced two batters and struck them both out on a total of 8 pitches.  Next day Jay threw 4 1/3 IP in relief (71 pitches), the velocity held from beginning to end and the control didn't waiver.  I can't say the same for Carson Fulmer who didn't look as good, his velocity dropped a tick into the 4th/5th inning.  Honestly was expecting him to clean up with Indiana State.  Fulmer's delivery/mechanics/etc scare me especially if you think you can keep him as a starting pitcher.

yeah, I'll take Fulmer, but good to read what you wrote there.  thanks for the info.