Article: Official Twins Daily Day Two Draft Thread

[jokin]

Yes Nick, sorry, getting names confused with an actual Mark Burdi that I knew. 

 

I think you are being a bit over critical personally, especially since I know you were very high on Burdi.  Likewise, you've been the one saying the Twins should emulate the Cardinals (which is what they've done with these relievers). 

 

Ironically, this is about 1 pick so far.  Maybe 2 if you count Jay, but given that pretty much every scout out there pegs him as a starter, I think you are being unfair if you do.  Given the consternation, I'd have thought they were taking every relief pitcher out there.  Half of the guys they have gotten today people thought were going in the 2nd round.  That's a pretty good haul, especially considering that it will be a pretty decent draft if one guy taken today has a productive career.

My comment was specifically related to the 2012 high picks for: RP, and: RP to SP, strategies, it hasn't worked as it was intended, at all. It would sure be nice to see one or two of these fireballers healthy and throwing major league innings before they turn 25 and pass their physical peak.

 

And yes, on Burdi, I did point out during the NCAAs that his FB lacked sufficient movement and was clearly just the set-up piece for his slider. A step back has clearly taken place this year and he's still a work in progress. With his 2-pitch repertoire, it seems like good coaching up should have, or hopefully still will, get him to the Twins by September. Not looking entirely positive right now, but things could change.

Edited June 9, 2015 by jokin

[jokin]

Well, I hope you're available for a call, since the 40 Twins scouts that watched Jay pitch lack a full understanding of when the average fireballer hits his peak velocity.

 

Amazing.

Not once have I mentioned Jay.

 

Amazing.

 

And you obviously don't understand the latest studies on peak velocity and aging curves. Perhaps you should consult with someone besides the Twins:

 

"Here's a nasty open secret about pitching: Young pitchers don't get better as they age. There is no peak age. As soon as they start firing bullets they start running out of time. They're born and then they start dying.

 

Nothing is that simple, of course, but today's baseball is certainly working this way. We used to think that players peaked at 27-28, full stop. Now we're seeing that certain things -- like power -- might peak early, and other things -- like reach rate -- might peak later. It's complicated."

 

Check the graph with the aging curves for pitchers. Velocity "peaks"at 21 on the chart, 21, and begins a steep decline around age 25-26.

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

Edited June 9, 2015 by jokin

[bird]

 

And poor decisions on draft day is probably a significant factor as to why we've lost 90 games for four straight seasons.

 

I suppose one could turn this around and say good decisions on draft day is probably a significant factor as to why we now have one of the very best talent pipelines in all of baseball.

 

Maybe it's not moronic. Maybe it's not ingenious. Maybe it's simply one way to solve a problem that had developed. The system is full of power arms. How do we find fault with that? 

 

Only time will tell. A virtual majority of the pitchers we're talking about have spent huge blocks of time recovering from injuries. Tonkin, Achter, Burdi, Jones, Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, Cedaroth, Booser, Peterson, Corey Williams, Luke Bard...and Seth will add a half-dozen new names to the list. You could't find anyone in the industry that wouldn't describe this pool of prospects using superlatives.

[bird]

 

I am not sure where all the complaining about drafting relievers is coming from. We have drafted one in the 5th round. Sure, technically you can count Jay as well but he wasn't your typical reliever and it was nearly a consensus among the experts that he can start. Other than that we have drafted two starters, an OFer and two 3rd basemen. Not exactly loading up on relievers like past drafts. 

 

 

Until Burdi and Tonkin and Jones and Reed, or any of the other candidates are contributing, this complaint will resurface at the slightest prompting. The next recurring complaint can't come soon enough for me. 

[bird]

 

I'd like the strategy more if the FO would follow up on that, and actually use their AAA and AA RP in the majors, but they want veterans, so I don't get the strategy all that much.

 

And, none of them have made the majors yet. For the person talking about the "complaining" (I prefer discussion), we are talking about a three year trend, not 1 pick.

 

 

So, you want them to call up Burdi and Reed from AA? Come on now.

[bird]

 

Wasn't Bard hurt before he was drafted? I think another guy was too, but I am sort of paying attn. to this work meeting.

 

Yeah, I think he dropped because of injury problems. He's finally back and pitching lights out, but he may be a good gamble that doesn't turn out. We have to keep reminding ourselves how very very few of these round 3-10 guys ever pan out.

[drivlikejehu]

Bard was a 1st round supplemental pick. 

[bird]

 

Bard was a 1st round supplemental pick. 

 

 

Which is why we have to keep reminding ourselves how few players drafted after about the first 25 or so ever make it to the majors. And why it's a numbers game when you're trying to shore up a weakness via the farm system.

[Captain Hindsight]

There were a couple picks I would have made differently, for example Nix over Blakenhorn and Aiken over Jay (though that depends on the medicals) but overall I am quite happy with what the Twins selected in the first 10 rounds. Interesting how lefty heavy they went in both pitching and hitting. Really liked the Cody, Cabbage, Moran and the Kendrick picks. I think some of those balls Kendrick hit in the video still haven't hit the ground. 

[Mike Sixel]

Well, I hope you're available for a call, since the 40 Twins scouts that watched Jay pitch lack a full understanding of when the average fireballer hits his peak velocity.

 

Amazing.

Appeal to authority, one of my favorites.

[Dman]

I liked the Twins draft. They went pitchers early and got some nice HS bats. Nice mix of college and HS players. Nice mix of pitcher and position players as well as value and some high risk upside. Sad thing is only one o r two of these players will make it to MLB. Every year I think they all will make it but i know better now. Hopefully they get some upside guys in rounds 11-20 and hopefully we get luckier than usual with these picks.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Which is why we have to keep reminding ourselves how few players drafted after about the first 25 or so ever make it to the majors. And why it's a numbers game when you're trying to shore up a weakness via the farm system.

 

It's a numbers game that quality front offices are better at than the Twins.

[DocBauer]

I find it interesting/funny how the Twins are too conservative in approach and get blasted for making safe picks o predictable control pitchers with limitd upside and not taking a shot at power arms with big upside.

 

So the past few seasons they become more imaginative, turn to power arms, and even become creative in their projected use of them, but now get blasted for taking shots at upside arms instead of being more conservative.

[bird]

 

Appeal to authority, one of my favorites.

  Appeal for humility perhaps?

[Squirrel]

Come on, guys. Stop some of this back and forth antagonizing. If your post is geared more to another poster and not the topic, don't post.

[Pitz]

Its interesting that they've taken 3 corner infielders already, but it seems like they've gotten some potential upside bats with those picks. I was a bit surprised they haven't drafted any catchers yet. I'm sure we'll see a couple added soon.

[drjim]

 

Its interesting that they've taken 3 corner infielders already, but it seems like they've gotten some potential upside bats with those picks. I was a bit surprised they haven't drafted any catchers yet. I'm sure we'll see a couple added soon.

 

They will take a couple, but Johnson specifically mentioned the weakness of catching in this draft class.

[Monkeypaws]

Overall an interesting draft so far.

 

They seem to have gotten some good value on several of the picks. I agree w/Dman, it's a nice mix.

 

Hopefully they get them all signed up.

[Mike Sixel]

I like the high upside HS hitters and Jay picks. I am less certain of the tall pitcher......

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

As a TTO Kind at the plate, yes, but ABW seems to be far more athletic. ABW will steal some bases and play an accpetable corner OF spot, even the "slimmed down" version of this kid looks pretty roly-poly.

 

Unfortunately ABW is the wrong kind of TTO guy. instead of being a useful Three-True-Outcome guy, he is all or nothing Two-True-Outcomes guy, since he does not walk. He thinks "walks are for wimps" apparently. 

 

Jason Castro, Marlon Byrd,Ian Desmond,Marcell Ozun, Nick Castellanos are 2014 MLB batting profiles with similar comps, but none of them are striking out in the majors as much as ABW is in AA even. 

 

Starling Marte, Luis Valbuena, Evan Gattis, Ryan Howard are 2015 examples of 2015 batting profile comps of guys who only K or HR.

 

All of these names have very low OBP's, but some have decent name recognition and have have performed better in the past. Again, none of the names listed posted worse K%'s than what ABW currently is putting up in AA though. They are all 22-27%ish. Not 33%.

 

Mark Trumbo seems like a best case scenario....IF, he dramatically cut his K% down. There just aren't a lot of examples of guys that succeed in the majors with high k%'s, but don't take walks. If he doesn't learn to walk, he likely won't  ever be a useful MLB player. 

 

We all need to tame our expectations for ABW, as he at the moment is just a fun guy to follow in the box score to see if he homered, but I don't see him succeeding in the majors unless he dramatically cuts down on his K% or learns to take a pitch from time to time. Most players stay the same type of batter that they have shown, with only minor changes over time. I admit that I check to see if he has homered daily though.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Well, I hope you're available for a call, since the 40 Twins scouts that watched Jay pitch lack a full understanding of when the average fireballer hits his peak velocity.

 

Amazing.

 

The peak velocity comment is not that ridiculous. It does appear that high velocity pitchers of recent times lose their velocity over time, and that often times are less effective with the loss in velocity. You want to get these types up as early as possible, since velocity and stuff can often makeup for polish. If you keep those types in the minors until they are polished, you get them when they are less nasty and closer to blowing out their arms. This is something I have definitely noticed the past few years. Lance McCullers seems like a current example of "just bring him up and let his stuff play."

 

Don't meddle too long with these guys. Meyer was probably ready to be up all of last year, but looks as though he has hit the stage of losing a touch of his stuff and velocity. If you target velocity, you rush them up, since they will likely be washed up or post-TJ by the time they hit free agency anyway.

[diehardtwinsfan]

of course, if you use that to bring them up before they have polish, then you put yourself in the same situation.  I highly doubt Meyer outperforms his AAA numbers in the majors last year.  If anything, that walk rate rises and MLB hitters destroy him. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

of course, if you use that to bring them up before they have polish, then you put yourself in the same situation.  I highly doubt Meyer outperforms his AAA numbers in the majors last year.  If anything, that walk rate rises and MLB hitters destroy him. 

 

 

You very well might be right, but it sure seems that in the current MLB game, that guys with high velocity and stuff tend to translate those numbers better into the majors, and sometimes even improve them. As where slower nibblers seem to have better minor league ERA's, but that those numbers do not follow them to the majors as often. 

 

I am not sure why this is completely to be honest. But, I am guessing that guys with high velocity and stuff maybe do better with the the smarter veterans who do not have the same bat speed as they used to, since they will have to make their decisions and start their swings earlier, yet can still exploit the swing happy younger guys. Where on the other hand slower velocity guys now face smarter veterans who can catch up to their stuff, and the younger bat speed guys can tee off when they actually make contact. Just one guess at it. 

 

The Milone's of the world look great in the minors, but their stuff doesn't play up. Where the McCullerrs of the world seem to maintain similar effectiveness when called upon. Yes, they might be more volatile and likely to have implosion outings where they don't make it out of the 4th inning due to pitch counts, but they also have more gems that balance it out. Where nibblers seem to consistently give you you 5-7 innings, but give up 3-5 runs each outing. They can't win you the games that the bats aren't alive. 

 

This isn't to say that nibblers never succeed in the majors and that high velocity and stuff guys always do. that is obvious. But, in aggregate I would say that the trend seems to be more clear that you can get away with not having major league control to the standards of the past, as long as you throw heat and have at least one dominant breaking ball, and even more so if you have a change to mix in with it. And the days of waiting for pitching prospects to be fully polished to bring up, seems to be wasting their best years in the minors and one bullet closer to TJ. 

 

Having velocity alone won't do it, as it appears that the only high velocity young guys that are showing success are the ones that also have one dominant breaking ball to go along with it. Nibblers can be effective of course, but it seems as though they need to either rely on breaking and off-speed pitches much more than normal, and or, have a home ballpark and defense that suites masks their shortcomings and that compliments their tendencies.

 

There is no one way to skin a cat, but higher velocity along with a plus breaking ball seem like a formula that is currently playing well in the MLB, regardless of polish. It seems adding a good change and control just pushes these guys from good to great. Rodin is having good success due to a dominant slider and great velocity, but the control and lack of a change keep him from going really deep into games, but that isn't that bad if your pen has to protect a 3-1 lead for 3 innings  or so. On the other hand Eduardo Rodriguez has shown velocity, good breaking stuff, a good change, and control...leading to being great, instead of merely good thus far, and allowing him to pitch deeper into games. 

 

Does that mean I am not a fan of pitchers that find a way to succeed despite lack of velocity? No, in fact I root for them even more, since I like to cheer for underdogs/outliers. I am short, and you would be hard pressed to find short dudes who don't love underdogs. I love Gibson and he is my second favorite pitcher to root for after May. 

 

I would love to put together a blog about this in greater detail, but I am just not smart enough to write such an article, nor do I have the self-esteem to handle the criticism, lol.