Article: Official Twins Daily Day Two Draft Thread

[DaveW]

 

 

Like many, I too am a bit puzzled by the number of college relievers the Twins have been drafting. My hope is that it will pay off in a few years. My bigger hope is that it will pay off in a huge way in a few years if they can construct a bullpen of cost controlled guys and spend that savings on a frontline starter or impact bat. I know that is a lot to hope for but I do see some value in having a system with a bunch of potentially strong bullpen options.

 

At the least, hopefully it keeps them away from Stauffer-like signings.

 

I don't mind it, the one thing the Twins have been lacking this year is guys who can strike people out (especially in the bullpen), the Royals have shown us over the last year or so that if you can get 3 shut down guys in the pen, that is strong enough to take you to the playoffs and more importantly deep in the playoffs. All the Twins need is like two of these hard throwing RP types to give them a start to a formidable pen, bonus points as they are drafting LHP as well.

[d-mac]

 

I'm not talking down to you at all....

Yes, several great relievers are failed starters when drafted, but Perkins himself was a first round pick as a starter, not a mid round guy. Nathan was a SS when he was drafted. Hawkins, while a solid RP is hardly considered one of "the best" he had a couple nice years in Minnesota and Chicago but was more middle of the road then anything else.

 

Also a lot of these guys get tossed in the pen in college because college coaches don't have the patience to let them develop.

Now you're just putting words in my mouth. I said some of the best. I was just pulling Twins' relievers that I knew had failed as starters at some point. Never meant those three examples to be a "best of" list. 

 

If you want a "best of"- Mariano was a starter until '96. Wasn't Hoffman a SS? How's that? 

 

You can find quality major league relievers anywhere. Only the elite of the elite are truly valuable. Drafting them is not wise. Drafting 15 over the past 3 years (or whatever they've done) is moronic. There's a reason why other teams don't do it. And poor decisions on draft day is probably a significant factor as to why we've lost 90 games for four straight seasons.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Furthermore, relievers don't pitch enough innings in a season to be all that valuable. And their performance tends to be volatile from season to season based on sample size. Why spend valuable picks on pitchers that will never be a starter instead of spending them on picks of pitchers that may become a middle to back of the rotation starter that can be moved to the bullpen when they fail?

In most cases that's what happens, a failed starter in the minors gets turned into a reliever the further he goes up the ladder for many different reasons.  The logistics behind drafting relievers is the belief that you develop your own middle innings reliever or backend of the bullpen arms so that you don't "waste a 2-5M paycheck a year" on a reliever who will be volatile when you can put your own guy out there.  Why draft a RP out of the gate rather than SP who might spin his wheels, gets more down to philosophy of drafting; but my guess is that they liked the "velocity".

[d-mac]

Christopher Paul continues the trend of players taken with two first names in this draft.

 

Looks like an economy sign. Didn't do anything in his college career until his senior season. Didn't hit for average, didn't draw walks, hit for power, or steal bases as a freshman, sophomore, or junior. Offer him $150k and give the savings to Blankenhorn and Cabbage.

[twinssouth]

Twins drafting college power relievers seemed to have started in 2012 draft and if it wasn't for injuries to a lot of them, my guess is we would be seeing 1 or 2 by now. Look at the list that have gone under the knife;

Luke Bard

JT Chargois

Mason Melotakis

Zack Jones

Who am I missing, probably more. That was in 2012 alone and was anoutstanding draft. Seems only reliever that stayed healthy is Duffy and he's now a starter.

[JustinCB]

Is Donny Everett not signable this low?

[d-mac]

 

In most cases that's what happens, a failed starter in the minors gets turned into a reliever the further he goes up the ladder for many different reasons.  The logistics behind drafting relievers is the belief that you develop your own middle innings reliever or backend of the bullpen arms so that you don't "waste a 2-5M paycheck a year" on a reliever who will be volatile when you can put your own guy out there.  Why draft a RP out of the gate rather than SP who might spin his wheels, gets more down to philosophy of drafting; but my guess is that they liked the "velocity".

That's what I think their reasoning is too- that shiny velocity. But when pitchers are only throwing 20 pitches an outing instead of 100, they bump it up a couple of notches naturally. 

[drjim]

 

If you are going to keep drafting college RP, when other teams don't as often.....you are either a genius or not all that bright.

 

Or somewhere in between.

[Carneal&Gordon]

Of course Theo Epstein gets David Berg. Bummer, but good for David.

 

 

 

http://www.d1basebal...ght-david-berg/

[jokin]

Twins drafting college power relievers seemed to have started in 2012 draft and if it wasn't for injuries to a lot of them, my guess is we would be seeing 1 or 2 by now. Look at the list that have gone under the knife;

Luke Bard

JT Chargois

Mason Melotakis

Zack Jones

Who am I missing, probably more. That was in 2012 alone and was anoutstanding draft. Seems only reliever that stayed healthy is Duffy and he's now a starter.

All I see from this data is just one more flaw in their strategy.

[drjim]

 

All I see from this data is just one more flaw in their strategy.

 

Clearly the Twins are zagging while the more data driven orgs zig.

[jokin]

Christopher Paul continues the trend of players taken with two first names in this draft.

 

Looks like an economy sign. Didn't do anything in his college career until his senior season. Didn't hit for average, didn't draw walks, hit for power, or steal bases as a freshman, sophomore, or junior. Offer him $150k and give the savings to Blankenhorn and Cabbage.

Wait. What? Chris Paul pulling a Michael Jordan?

[Bob Sacamento]

Scouting Report on Chris Paul:

 

Golden Bears products such as Allen Craig and Josh Satin were good senior signs with somewhat similar profiles to that of Paul, who was Cal's toughest out in Pacific-12 Conference play. The Laguna Beach, Calif., prep product had his best season and has solid athleticism and good-enough (if below-average) speed for a move to left field. He’s a sure-handed defender at first with solid-average power who has learned to temper his aggressive offensive approach just enough.

[DaveW]

 

Now you're just putting words in my mouth. I said some of the best. I was just pulling Twins' relievers that I knew had failed as starters at some point. Never meant those three examples to be a "best of" list. 

 

If you want a "best of"- Mariano was a starter until '96. Wasn't Hoffman a SS? How's that? 

 

You can find quality major league relievers anywhere. Only the elite of the elite are truly valuable. Drafting them is not wise. Drafting 15 over the past 3 years (or whatever they've done) is moronic. There's a reason why other teams don't do it. And poor decisions on draft day is probably a significant factor as to why we've lost 90 games for four straight seasons.

I'm hardly putting words in your mouth, you need to stop being so combative.

 

TR and the org must have done something right at some point as the Twins now have the 2nd best record in the league and have a farm system that everyone can agree on is one of the best in baseball.

[Willihammer]

Like the Paul pick. Strong senior season at Cal seems to have followed from a change to his swing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

At some point you give the Twins the benefit of the doubt, this org now has had a top 3 minor league prospect farm over the last 3 or so years.

Also, the draft isn't the only place to find pitching, you can always snag some raw high upside guys on the international market as well.

When one of these guys works out, for multiple years at the MLB level, there will be evidence that they should have the benefit of the doubt. And, I don't think they are top 3 because of the picks of RP, do you?. But like I said, they are either genius, or really wrong. I don't know which yet.

[SarasotaBill]

Deron Johnson has demonstrated the past few years to favor potential over higher floor guys. 

I like his strategy of getting high velocity arms. Get 10-12 in the farm system and hope 5-6 can excel in the bullpen.

Less than 20% of the players drafted in rounds 4-10 make the majors and very few become impact players (Dozier being one of the exceptions).

The senior picks help pay for the earlier prep picks.

[DaveW]

It's really easy to find a ton of "failures" when it comes to the MLB draft, considering that the significant majority will never make the majors for EVERY organization.

 

IMHO the Twins have done pretty well in the middle stages of the draft recently (and other non huge money international signings) when it comes to SP:

 

Hu- international Free Agent Free

Berrios- Comp Pick

Gonsalves- 4th round

Lewis Thorpe- Free Agent

[Bob Sacamento]

Scouting Report on Jovani Moran

 

It is a good year for pitching in Puerto Rico, with Alexis Omar Diaz and Moran leading the way. Listed at 6-foot-1, 165 pounds, Moran has a lanky, projectable frame. He throws his fastball from a high three-quarters angle at 88-90 mph and locates it well thanks to his smooth, easy delivery. His breaking ball is a bit slurvy now, but as he gets stronger he should be able to throw it with true slider shape. Moran is a South Florida recruit, with a backup commitment to Broward (Fla.) CC.

 

[nytwinsfan]

What is Jovani Moran's age and birthday? He looks really young in the photos I could find, which is good, since that might mean more projection on his 6 foot 1, 165 pound frame.

[jokin]

What is Jovani Moran's age and birthday? He looks really young in the photos I could find, which is good, since that might mean more projection on his 6 foot 1, 165 pound frame.

He turned 18 on April 24. Not much data yet- a youngish HS senior, and LH!

Edited June 9, 2015 by jokin

[maxisagod]

 

What is Jovani Moran's age and birthday? He looks really young in the photos I could find, which is good, since that might mean more projection on his 6 foot 1, 165 pound frame.

 

...and a couple of MPH on his fastball. Which on a 6 plus lefty could be huge. 

[James]

Marlins just took Travis Neubeck.  Not notable except for his hometown of Hugo, MN.  So that's kind of fun for a local kid. 

[DaveW]

 

And, I don't think they are top 3 because of the picks of RP, do you?.

I think they are top 3 because of a combination of things:

1. They have been drafting pretty well.

2. They have gotten great value on the international market: Sano, Kepler, Hu, Thorpe, Polanco to name a few.

 

If there is one glaring weakness in the Twins major league team it is hard throwers, especially in the bullpen. I dont mind them using a few picks (it's not nearly as many as people make it out to be) in the middle rounds looking for hard throwing guys who can potentially stick in a ML bullpen at make a difference, extra bonus points for being LHP too.

 

If the Twins spend their first round pick on a RP I would be concerned, but they didn't they drafted a guy who projects to be a starting pitcher who also can help out in the bullpen ASAP if needed before he is sent down to work on his third pitch to become a ML starter.

 

If the Twins weren't singing SP in the international market I would be more concerned as well, but they have been signing some good value in that market for SP as well.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's really easy to find a ton of "failures" when it comes to the MLB draft, considering that the significant majority will never make the majors for EVERY organization.

 

IMHO the Twins have done pretty well in the middle stages of the draft recently (and other non huge money international signings) when it comes to SP:

 

Hu- international Free Agent Free

Berrios- Comp Pick

Gonsalves- 4th round

Lewis Thorpe- Free Agent

 

none of those were college RP, right? We aren't arguing a point we aren't making......

[nytwinsfan]

 

He turned 18 on April 24. Not much data yet- a youngish HS senior, and LH!

I knew it. He looked really young.

 

 

...and a couple of MPH on his fastball. Which on a 6 plus lefty could be huge.

Exactly, let's hope so.

[DaveW]

 

 

Marlins just took Travis Neubeck.  Not notable except for his hometown of Hugo, MN.  So that's kind of fun for a local kid. 

If he makes it in the big leagues he should enjoy that 1.5 years in Miami until he is inevitably traded.

[Captain Hindsight]

I am not sure where all the complaining about drafting relievers is coming from. We have drafted one in the 5th round. Sure, technically you can count Jay as well but he wasn't your typical reliever and it was nearly a consensus among the experts that he can start. Other than that we have drafted two starters, an OFer and two 3rd basemen. Not exactly loading up on relievers like past drafts. 

[DaveW]

 

 

none of those were college RP, right? We aren't arguing a point we aren't making......

My point is they have been successful picking their spots on grabbing SP in the international market and the middle rounds of the draft, so they must be doing SOMETHING right, which is why I am fine with their current approach of picking up a few college RP here and there.

[gunnarthor]

So far, this is looking like a pretty nice draft.