Article: Twins Select Tyler Jay Sixth Overall

[Willihammer]

I'm worried that he'll lose his command, and potentially the movement on his fastball and breaking pitches- in other words, I'm worried he becomes very hittable as he's stretched out into a starter's role. There's probably a reason his coach had him in the bullpen- and not the rotation at Illinois. And don't tell me it's because he's a moron, because their season has been very successful.

That's the part that gets me. One college coach off his rock? Sure. But, all of them? I mean we'll see how the rest of the draft goes but with last year's harvest of college relievers and now Jay, it seems increasingly likely that the Twins feel there is a widespread inefficiency across college ball where coaches are miscasting starter talents.

 

What would be the explanations for this?

[USMCTwin]

 

if your strategy is to not buy a championship, you have to be better, or your strategy won't work. This isn't some "lesson" we have to learn. How condescending.

 

It's just a weird coincidence that some teams haven't lost 90+ games even 1 time in the last 10+ years? We disagree on this, but at least I don't make condescending remarks about it.

 

I agree with you that some teams have been better at this over an extended period of time and it isn't just the bigger market teams.  I am not sure birdwatcher would disagree with that either, I took it as him speaking more to this specific instance. But, just to compare teams over the last 10 years by 90+ losses.

 

7 - KC, Pitt

6 - Bal

5 - Sea

4 - ChC, Hou, Miami, Minn, Wash

3 - Arizona, Cle, Col, TB

2 - Bos, CWS, SD, SF

1 - Atl, Cin, Det, LAD, NYM, Tex

0 - Mil, Phil, LAA, Oak, NYY, StL, Tor

 

I was surprised by the lack of losing seasons from Mil & Cin. 

[ashbury]

 a widespread inefficiency across college ball where coaches are miscasting starter talents.

 

What would be the explanations for this?

A difference in how the schedule places demands on the workload?

[Willihammer]

A difference in how the schedule places demands on the workload?

How do you mean?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The real issue as I see it is a crowd forming for the rotation in a couple years.  That isn't a bad thing, but they will still have Nughes, Nolasco, and Santana under contract with Berrios, May, Gibson, Duffey, (presumably Jay), Rogers, Meyer, and Dean all potentially making a case for a spot.

It might be a problem, it might not. Nolasco is gone after 2017, Santana after 2018. Unless Jay is a phenom, he won't even be knocking on the door as a starter until 2018.

 

It's so hard to project pitchers. Half or better of those guys might flame out, unfortunately... Or at least see a significant setback like TJ that pushes their timetable back 18 months.

[d-mac]

 

That's the part that gets me. One college coach off his rock? Sure. But, all of them? I mean we'll see how the rest of the draft goes but with last year's harvest of college relievers and now Jay, it seems increasingly likely that the Twins feel there is a widespread inefficiency across college ball where coaches are miscasting starter talents.

What would be the explanations for this?

You could be right, but is the Twins' braintrust that clever? Apart from Taylor Rogers, there has been almost nothing to show for it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well, if it comes to that, they can trade pitching.  That's usually pretty valuable.

 

Agreed.  Problem is that the pitching they will want to trade isn't tradable, and Ryan doesn't exactly have a penchant for prospect for prospect type trades.  I could see a guy like Dean getting sent away for decent relief help now, but I don't see this logjam going away.

[gunnarthor]

 

Agreed.  Problem is that the pitching they will want to trade isn't tradable, and Ryan doesn't exactly have a penchant for prospect for prospect type trades.  I could see a guy like Dean getting sent away for decent relief help now, but I don't see this logjam going away.

Ryan has traded away a lot of pitching over the years and gotten some solid deals in return. 

[d-mac]

 

Fulmer is expected to be a reliever for two reasons - 1) Height (see all Berrios threads) and 2) a max effort delivery.  Of all the guys in the draft, he was the one I was most frightened of drafting. 

 

Jay is a good pick.  His stuff grades out well and scouts think he can start.  Had he been a starter this year, we wouldn't have gotten him at 6. 

 

1.) Short pitchers are a huge market inefficiency, IMO. If they can miss bats, does it matter how tall they are? Berrios, Lincecum, and Stroman all say hi.

 

2.) As long as he can maintain his command and velo throughout a game, does it matter? Plus those hi-effort guys can sometimes add a layer of deception. 

 

Again, there must be a reason why Jay wasn't starting. Fulmer at least proved that he could miss bats as a starter in the highest level of collegiate baseball- Tyler Jay has not. And frankly, there is zero track record of teams drafting pitchers that have exclusively been relievers in college and turning them into successful pitchers.  

[d-mac]

 

Ryan has traded away a lot of pitching over the years and gotten some solid deals in return. 

 

I think his point was, TR just doesn't trade away prospects in the high minors for areas of need. Whether good or bad that's just not his MO. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's the part that gets me. One college coach off his rock? Sure. But, all of them? I mean we'll see how the rest of the draft goes but with last year's harvest of college relievers and now Jay, it seems increasingly likely that the Twins feel there is a widespread inefficiency across college ball where coaches are miscasting starter talents.

What would be the explanations for this?

I think someone else referenced this upthread, but apparently the Illinois coach wanted to use Jay more frequently, which is why he was in the bullpen.  His team did have a few pretty good starters, and Jay pitched almost as many innings this year as their 3-4 starters.

 

That said, he was pretty clearly the best pitcher on the team, especially in their previous season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Does anybody have a list of successful college reliever to MLB starter conversions?  Honest question, I just don't know.

[DocBauer]

Once again, I love this pick. And I really, really don't get the angst of some posters here.

 

Gang, the Twins have some nice to really good pitching prospects. They even have some interesting LHSP options for the back of the rotation, though most would appear destined for the bullpen, especially compared to their RH brethren. But other than Gonsalves, and hopefully a healthy and recovered Thorpe, there is a dearth of top shelf LHSP options. (As there undoubtedly in most organizations) The Twins made a smart move in acquiring a very talented LH arm here.

 

* Don't think I've read a single scouting report that didn't have him in the top 10 of available draftable prospects this season. The Twins drafted 6, which is in the top 10.

 

* Don't think I've read a single scouting report that hasn't stated he is seen as a legitimate SP candidate, based on his pitch mix and potential. Sure he needs some more polish and command, but what young pitcher doesn't need at least some polish and development.

 

* There were three LH's with real ability and potential in the draft. All have nice potential upside but also have question marks. One...Jay...is healthy and college age and closer to the majors, while the other two are HS'ers, injured, and further away. The draft is all about projectability, but age and injury have to be considered.

 

* Despite rumors to the contrary, with minute, generational exception, you DONT draft Ace pitchers. You scout, you project, you draft, you coach, and then you wait and cross fingers. In all the years I've been a Twins fan, or watched baseball, I could probably name on one hand...hand and a half tops...the guys I've seen drafted as almost sure fire Ace pitchers. And I think all of them were picked #1 or #2 in the draft probably.

 

* If Jay turns out to be a legitimate, solid, ML LHSP who can hold down a 2 or 3 spot year after year...hell, even be a really nice #4 SP on a winning staff...you will say he's a wasted pick?

 

* Even if he washes as a SP, and becomes a top shelf LH 8th inning setup guy...not even a closer...he still becomes a valuable asset to the Twins. And this is his lowest level, practically basement level floor!

[drjim]

There was even steam for him going #3 overall for a while. Getting him at #6 is solid.

 

I just don't see a clear alternative that they passed on, and overall the top of the draft just wasn't that great this year. Perhaps that is part of the trepidation for this pick. 

[ashbury]

How do you mean?

I don't know and I'd have to ask the coach making such decisions what his rationale was. But with fewer games per week and fewer weeks per season, it's possible that a pitcher who isn't a good starting candidate for the pros might get the nod over a stronger long-term prospect.

 

Probably the coach has indeed said something and I missed the mention of it.

[DocBauer]

Side note: in regard to why Jay was only used as an occassional starter, or stretched out reliever in some cases, and not a full time starter:

 

Illinois was a top 10 ranked team who won the Big 10 and won 50 games on the season.

 

The team had 4 primary starters in their rotation that went a combined 33-7! The ERA's of those 4 was 1.75, 2.01, 2.28 and 3.35!

 

They all started 12 or more games, and pitched 75 or more innings.

 

The absolute worst SO/BB ratio amongst the 4 was better than 3-1.

 

The worst BA against was in the .250's and the other three were under .250.

 

And only one SP allowed as many hits as IP.

 

Jay was an anchor for the team, and used in slightly different roles at times. But he wasn't in the bullpen because he lacked something. He played his role.

[tobi0040]

 

Side note: in regard to why Jay was only used as an occassional starter, or stretched out reliever in some cases, and not a full time starter:

Illinois was a top 10 ranked team who won the Big 10 and won 50 games on the season.

The team had 4 primary starters in their rotation that went a combined 33-7! The ERA's of those 4 was 1.75, 2.01, 2.28 and 3.35!

They all started 12 or more games, and pitched 75 or more innings.

The absolute worst SO/BB ratio amongst the 4 was better than 3-1.

The worst BA against was in the .250's and the other three were under .250.

And only one SP allowed as many hits as IP.

Jay was an anchor for the team, and used in slightly different roles at times. But he wasn't in the bullpen because he lacked something. He played his role.

 

In addition.  Jay, Fullmer, and Tate were the top three pitching prospects and most scouts agreed that Jay was the most likely of the three to stick as a starter.  Jay has more pitches, he is more athletic, and has a more fluid delivery.

 

The Twins brass had to agree with these scouts or there is no chance we took the guy at #6.  Terry even said a few days prior to the draft any pitcher we draft we have to feel strongly the guy sticks as a starter.

Edited June 10, 2015 by tobi0040

[Willihammer]

 

I don't know and I'd have to ask the coach making such decisions what his rationale was. But with fewer games per week and fewer weeks per season, it's possible that a pitcher who isn't a good starting candidate for the pros might get the nod over a stronger long-term prospect.

 

Probably the coach has indeed said something and I missed the mention of it.

Is that a widespread practice? Also, fewer games > more rest > more starts/innings from your best pitcher, no? Eg. Jay had 28 relief appearances totalling ~58 innings. Whereas his teammates were starting 15-16 games and 100 innings plus. Seems like a bad tradeoff.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Willihammer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Side note: in regard to why Jay was only used as an occassional starter, or stretched out reliever in some cases, and not a full time starter:

Illinois was a top 10 ranked team who won the Big 10 and won 50 games on the season.

The team had 4 primary starters in their rotation that went a combined 33-7! The ERA's of those 4 was 1.75, 2.01, 2.28 and 3.35!

They all started 12 or more games, and pitched 75 or more innings.

The absolute worst SO/BB ratio amongst the 4 was better than 3-1.

The worst BA against was in the .250's and the other three were under .250.

And only one SP allowed as many hits as IP.

Jay was an anchor for the team, and used in slightly different roles at times. But he wasn't in the bullpen because he lacked something. He played his role.

One of the Illinois starters only had a 2.4 K/BB ratio this past season (although he also pitched 5 games in relief).  That same starter also led the team in unearned runs allowed, which would have raised his ERA by more than a full run -- and he lost the semifinal game knocking them out of the conference tournament (after being the #1 seed) by allowing 5 unearned runs (a game Tyler Jay mopped up in).  Another starter gave up 7 runs in 4 innings to lose their super-regional opener, before they turned to Tyler to start the next game facing elimination (where he lost, giving up 10 hits and 4 runs in 6.1 innings).

 

Looks like a team that could have benefitted from developing and deploying another SP ace, if they had one available.

 

And why was Jay relegated to the bullpen the previous season?  Looks like that team gave 16 starts to league average or worse pitchers, finished in 3rd place, and lost in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tournament, thanks to a blowup by other relievers in the 8th inning.  Again, not a result that looks particularly smart if they kept one of the best pitchers in the nation in reserve.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Is that a widespread practice? Also, fewer games > more rest > more starts/innings from your best pitcher, no? Eg. Jay had 28 relief appearances totalling ~58 innings. Whereas his teammates were starting 15-16 games and 100 innings plus. Seems like a bad tradeoff.

I see the other side of it too -- having a relief ace available every game is a nice weapon, but in practical terms it's unlikely to work out that well.  A starter is always a factor -- a reliever may or may not be, due to circumstances entirely out of his control.

 

In the conference tournament this year, which Illinois entered as the #1 seed, they went 2-2 and lost in the semifinals, with Jay making only 2 appearances in 4 games -- a 1 inning, 1 run save, and the last 1.1 innings of the final game (a 2-run loss).

 

In the regional tournament, Jay appeared only once and it was impressive (4 shutout innings) but it ultimately wasn't critical as they swept their double-elimination bracket in 3 games.

 

In the super regional, they lost 13-0 in the opener to face elimination.  Then, in the elimination game, they asked Jay to make only his second career start (his first being a non conference tune-up on Feb. 15), and asked him to pitch a career high 6.1 innings.  And he lost it by giving up 5 hits and the 2 go-ahead runs in the 6th and 7th inning, before departing with 1 out and 2 runners on in the 7th.

 

 

 

It doesn't look like the greatest management of resources.

[Willihammer]

 

It doesn't look like the greatest management of resources.

It doesn't to me either. That's why I'm kinda wondering how widespread it is, and how much merit there might be to the strategy of targeting college pitchers who have been miscast in relief roles. We know that Fulmer and Tate were put in the pen too (before this year). But that's 3 guys and I don't follow college ball enough to understand how widespread the practice is.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Willihammer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

We know that Fulmer and Tate were put in the pen too (before this year).

Fulmer was a reliever as a freshman, and transitioned to starting as a sophomore.  Full-time starter as a junior.

 

Tate barely pitched as a freshman (3 innings), was a reliever as a sophomore, and a full-time starter as a junior.

 

Neither of those paths seems unusual.  Kyle Gibson basically did that too.

 

I too would be interested if anyone (other than Duffey) has successfully followed the proposed Jay path.