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Article: Twins Select Tyler Jay Sixth Overall


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If you wanted a pitcher, it sounds like you were choosing between starters who scouts project as possible relievers or Jay, who scouts say could start. Given those choices, I guess I don't mind the guy who hasn't had a college coach abusing the hell out of his arm.

 

I'm anxious to see him work in E'town or (better yet) CR!

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The Twins were, as usual, in kind of a bad spot when their pick came up.  There probably weren't a lot of good options here.  Unless they took a chance on on injured guy like Allard or Aiken it was probably between Jay and Fullmer.  That's also assuming since Cameron has not been drafted yet by pick #28 that his asking price was not reasonable.  Plus we all know how the Twins brain trust starts drooling when they get the chance to draft a college relief pitcher.

 

While I think he has the chance to be solid, I don't see a ceiling as an ace or get the comps to Chris Sale other than being left-handed.  Sale is about 6'6" vs Jay at about 6'1".  Sale was a starter in college, Jay was a reliever.  I suppose there's always that outside chance he becomes an ace, because you never really know-but I see him more as a mid-rotation starter if things work out.  Floor is obviously not even reaching the majors but realistically would probably be a set-up man in the bullpen.  (I think Nick Burdi has proven you can't just write dominant relief pitcher next to a guys name in pen without him having actually pitched in the minor leagues yet).

 

One of the reasons I'll take a wait and see approach before getting too excited is the level of competition Jay faced.  I love the Big 10, but for college baseball the conference is an afterthought.  So his stats, while awesome, have to be taken with a grain of salt.  Also he was a reliever at Illinois and its an unknown how his velocity and command will hold up making multiple starts.  Will his fastball play more at 90-93 if he has to make 30 starts rather than 94-97?  Can he adjust to being a starter and the workload without his arm blowing up before he gets close to even reaching the MLB level?  How does he adjust the 3rd time through a line-up?  A lot of questions, I guess we'll see.  

 

 

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I'll be happy with the pick if he still has a mid 90s fastball as a starter, but there's no way everyone in the industry thinks a low 90s fastball is a good investment at number 6. Perhaps everyone in the industry thought he'd go in the top ten because the Twins pick in the top ten and historically don't give a crap about their starters velocity.

 

Almost every expert in the Milky Way Galaxy viewed Jay as one of the ten best prospects in this draft. I think I saw a report that said he hit 96 on a FB late in today's game, and scouts say he held his velo into the 6th inning on the occasions he was stretched out this year. It appears your concerns about his velo are brushed aside by some of the scouts.

 

What should NOT be brushed aside are that several scouts are saying he has a chance to develop three 60 pitches, and that he's also shown a change that's above average. 

 

He was thought to be one of the two or three best pitchers in this draft, and it's important to note that many pros think the chances that the others (Tate and Fulmer) end up in the pen might be higher than that of Jay's.

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Great points bird.

 

Frankly, I was worried we would pass on him and the white sox would take him. Sale, rodon, and jay.

 

Lastly. I think the fact that he can be a reliever with an upper 90's fastball and plus slider is a good thing. That puts his floor very high. Not an ideal outcome, but if you remove most of a guys bust potential it is a very nice pick.

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The Twins were, as usual, in kind of a bad spot when their pick came up.  There probably weren't a lot of good options here.  Unless they took a chance on on injured guy like Allard or Aiken it was probably between Jay and Fullmer.  That's also assuming since Cameron has not been drafted yet by pick #28 that his asking price was not reasonable.  Plus we all know how the Twins brain trust starts drooling when they get the chance to draft a college relief pitcher.

 

One of the reasons I'll take a wait and see approach before getting too excited is the level of competition Jay faced.  I love the Big 10, but for college baseball the conference is an afterthought.  So his stats, while awesome, have to be taken with a grain of salt.  Also he was a reliever at Illinois and its an unknown how his velocity and command will hold up making multiple starts.  Will his fastball play more at 90-93 if he has to make 30 starts rather than 94-97?  Can he adjust to being a starter and the workload without his arm blowing up before he gets close to even reaching the MLB level?  How does he adjust the 3rd time through a line-up?  A lot of questions, I guess we'll see.  

Well before you go poking fun at the Big 10 competition just remember Chris Sale played for FGCU (a small Ft. Myers, FL college in the not so challenging Atlantic Sun conference), so college competition isn't everything.  Jay showcased his stuff in the Cape Cod League and for Team USA and drew rave reviews.  Here's a little bit on him 9 months ago after the Team USA gameplay:

 

Undrafted out of high school, Jay was one of the top breakout players of the summer after entering the summer with little national pedigree. The top lefthander on the team, Jay made more appearances than any pitcher on Team USA’s roster, appearing in 15 games out of the ’pen while striking out 11.3 per nine with a 3.5 strikeout-walk ratio and not allowing an earned run.

Although Jay has never started a game at Illinois, he offers a starter’s repertoire and athleticism. Jay’s fastball sometimes sat 93-95, touching 97 at his best, and more frequently sat 90-93, touching 94. He has a loose, very quick arm from a three-quarters slot and very long stride. Jay pitches off a fastball that plays up as it jumps from his hand and offers varied life to both sides of the plate, with plane and sink when down in the zone. His breaking ball shows above-average potential, flashing plus at its best. Although his changeup was not used frequently in games, it shows at least above-average potential, and he has feel for it. He threw strikes this summer (3.2 walks per nine) and has in his career (3.3), striking out 9.7 per nine. Although the wiry, lean 6-foot-1, 170-pound Jay doesn’t have typical starter size, he was the best athlete of all the pitchers on the team, according to the coaching staff, and reportedly ran the 60-yard dash in 6.6 seconds at school. His role for the spring has not been determined yet, but scouts believe he could be one of the top college lefthanders in the country and go in the first-round if he maintains most of his stuff in the rotation.

 

How the Twins stretch him out will be very interesting and key to his success in the future.  The Illini head coach Dan Hartleb made the choice to use Jay as a RP instead of a SP because he thought it'd be more effective for the club for him to pitch multiple outings consecutively.  Hartleb has took alot of criticism for it but I stand by it, and you all should thank him for "saving" Tyler Jay's arm.  Hartleb has handed you the keys to a new Ferrari with 34 miles on the odometer; remember with great power comes great responsibility. 

 

All I know is your organization and many others have a strong belief that he's going to have the best chance between Tate, Fullmer and himself to become a starting pitcher.

Edited by Bob Sacamento
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I was hoping for Dillon Tate, and I think the Twins were too, but I like picking college pitchers and the Twins are far from the only team that thinks he can be converted to a starter. 

Personally, I think Tate has a much more likelihood to be a RP than Jay based on his delivery.  Here's the write up on Tate 9 months ago after Team USA gameplay:

 

Some teams considered Tate a top-10-rounds talent out of high school when his BA 500 scouting report said he was “a classic projection for scouts”, adding that he “he pitches at 85-88 and could add velocity as he fills out his 6-foot-1, 167-pound frame.” The intelligent Tate, who threw three innings as a freshman, has worked extremely hard to capitalize on that projection, having gained 35 pounds of muscle since high school. Tate has become a physical specimen with a strapping, chiseled and athletic build featuring broad shoulders, a high waist and long extremities. Tate’s velocity has increased tremendously with his electric arm speed, sitting 95-97 and touching 99 at his best, though his velocity fell to 91-93, touching 95 during a three-inning stint. Tate hides the ball very well and it jumps out of his hand, offering plus life with arm-side run and sink that projects to produce groundballs at an above-average clip. His high-effort, herky-jerky delivery with a high leg kick and head movement offers deception.

 

The 20-year-old’s top secondary pitch is a cutter/slider that flashes 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale at its best with sharp, late bite. But the offering will need to become more consistent, as he will mix in some below-average ones that are “cement mixers.” Although he has never started a game in school, Tate has a changeup with plus potential that features big tumble. His delivery produces more control than command. He has a starter’s repertoire from a relief pitcher’s delivery and some scouts wonder how his stuff would play with a toned-down delivery in the rotation. Tate has a history of missing bats in school—with 9.2 strikeouts per nine versus 3.7 walks in his career—but scouts wonder why he didn’t miss more bats this summer, as his 5.6 strikeouts per nine in 11 1/3 innings was the lowest of any qualified pitcher on the team. Tate positioned himself as arguably the top college reliever who threw this summer.

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I really liked the Cody pick.  I was hoping he could pitch himself into the top 10 at the beginning of the year. 

 

McDaniel on him: "Cody is an enigma, as a massive righty that throws three above average pitches at times and can run his sinker into the mid-90's, but he was jerked around by his coaches this year, is a lower energy player that doesn't always respond well to adversity and the secondary stuff and command came and went at times. Cody came on down the stretch and there's buzz he could go in the top 30 picks to the right team."

 

mlb.com, who ranked him #40, wrote: "As a huge right-hander who didn't experience much success in his first two years at Kentucky yet has a chance to become a first-round choice following his third, Cody is following Alex Meyer's career path. But while Meyer significantly improved his slider and command as a junior, Cody struggled for much of this spring before getting back on track in mid-May.

A Wisconsin high school product drafted in the 33rd round by the Phillies in 2012, Cody had the highest radar-gun reading (97 mph) at the 2014 Cape Cod League All-Star game. His 6-foot-7, 245-pound frame allows him to generate velocity with little effort and maintain it deep into games. He usually works at 93-96 mph and uses his height to throw on a tough downhill plane.

Cody has continued to impress with his velocity in 2015, but his lack of command has led to his fastball getting hit more than it should. He'll show flashes of improvement with his low-80s slider and some feel for his mid-80s changeup, but both secondary pitches remain inconsistent. He'll profile as a workhorse starter if everything comes together, and if not, his fastball could approach triple digits if he's used as a reliever."

 

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Twins go back to their 'old (U of) Kentucky home' for pick at #73, huge RH Kyle Cody or Cody Kyle. 

BA Scouting Report  on Kyle Cody:

 

At 6-foot-7, 245 pounds, Cody has jumbo size and one of the biggest fastballs in the class. Last summer, his fastball sat around 95 mph, touching as high as 98, from an easy delivery and clean arm action. He threw strikes and pitched off his heater, with a 34-11 strikeout-walk ratio last summer. However, the spring season has been a disastrous one for Cody, who has lost the life on his fastball as well as his strike-throwing ability. He lost his weekend rotation spot early, getting hammered in early starts at UC Santa Barbara and then in SEC play against Mississippi State, and tried to regroup in mid-week starts and relief outings. He has gotten out of his routine and generally struggled to get back into a rhythm while struggling to handle adversity. Cody still throws hard but his fastball has straightened out and elevated this spring—SEC hitters were batting .324 with 21 extra-base hits, including seven home runs against him going into the final weekend of the regular season—and he’s behind too much to make his hard, plus curveball a factor. He doesn't land the curve frequently enough for a strike anyway. One or two solid outings late could convince a team they can get Cody back to his Cape Cod League form, but his chances of going out in the first round are gone.

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The Twins were, as usual, in kind of a bad spot when their pick came up.  There probably weren't a lot of good options here.  Unless they took a chance on on injured guy like Allard or Aiken it was probably between Jay and Fullmer.  That's also assuming since Cameron has not been drafted yet by pick #28 that his asking price was not reasonable.  Plus we all know how the Twins brain trust starts drooling when they get the chance to draft a college relief pitcher.

 

While I think he has the chance to be solid, I don't see a ceiling as an ace or get the comps to Chris Sale other than being left-handed.  Sale is about 6'6" vs Jay at about 6'1".  Sale was a starter in college, Jay was a reliever.  I suppose there's always that outside chance he becomes an ace, because you never really know-but I see him more as a mid-rotation starter if things work out.  Floor is obviously not even reaching the majors but realistically would probably be a set-up man in the bullpen.  (I think Nick Burdi has proven you can't just write dominant relief pitcher next to a guys name in pen without him having actually pitched in the minor leagues yet).

 

One of the reasons I'll take a wait and see approach before getting too excited is the level of competition Jay faced.  I love the Big 10, but for college baseball the conference is an afterthought.  So his stats, while awesome, have to be taken with a grain of salt.  Also he was a reliever at Illinois and its an unknown how his velocity and command will hold up making multiple starts.  Will his fastball play more at 90-93 if he has to make 30 starts rather than 94-97?  Can he adjust to being a starter and the workload without his arm blowing up before he gets close to even reaching the MLB level?  How does he adjust the 3rd time through a line-up?  A lot of questions, I guess we'll see.  

You could say this about every pitcher drafted, all starters pitch one day a week, that is it.....none have been tested until they reach the pro level and even then some teams have more than 5 man pitching staffs and limit their pitchers the first yr or two.

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I enjoyed the selection of Tyler Jay

 

I honestly went, " YES" when the announcement was made watching on my computer, (mlb network feed on tv was terrible)

 

Normally Jay is the kind of guy that would go in the 12-18 range , but with this draft beings so weak i HONESTLY ThINK it was the right pick.

 

He is Glen Perkins 2.0 maybe he'll be able to start a bit longer than Perkins did in the Majors, before he's turned into a mid or late inning guy.

 

Stay healthy tyler jay and work hard!

 

:-)

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BA Scouting Report  on Kyle Cody:

 

At 6-foot-7, 245 pounds, Cody has jumbo size and one of the biggest fastballs in the class. Last summer, his fastball sat around 95 mph, touching as high as 98, from an easy delivery and clean arm action. He threw strikes and pitched off his heater, with a 34-11 strikeout-walk ratio last summer. However, the spring season has been a disastrous one for Cody, who has lost the life on his fastball as well as his strike-throwing ability. He lost his weekend rotation spot early, getting hammered in early starts at UC Santa Barbara and then in SEC play against Mississippi State, and tried to regroup in mid-week starts and relief outings. He has gotten out of his routine and generally struggled to get back into a rhythm while struggling to handle adversity. Cody still throws hard but his fastball has straightened out and elevated this spring—SEC hitters were batting .324 with 21 extra-base hits, including seven home runs against him going into the final weekend of the regular season—and he’s behind too much to make his hard, plus curveball a factor. He doesn't land the curve frequently enough for a strike anyway. One or two solid outings late could convince a team they can get Cody back to his Cape Cod League form, but his chances of going out in the first round are gone.

 

 

That is an inspiring scouting report.

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Jim Callis analysis:

 

6. Minnesota Twins: LHP Tyler Jay, Illinois
Callis: He's not the biggest guy in the world and has made just two college starts, but he can be a Big League starter because everything else is there. The Twins could try to expedite him to the big leagues since they're contending -- maybe he's this year's Brandon Finnegan -- and then they could turn him into a starter next year.

 

My personal view is the Twins probably try the Finnegan route.  He has pitched in shorter stints all year, so they probably don't want to stretch him out now.  I realize he went 6 IP yesterday but that was not typical.

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Almost every expert in the Milky Way Galaxy viewed Jay as one of the ten best prospects in this draft. I think I saw a report that said he hit 96 on a FB late in today's game, and scouts say he held his velo into the 6th inning on the occasions he was stretched out this year. It appears your concerns about his velo are brushed aside by some of the scouts.

 

What should NOT be brushed aside are that several scouts are saying he has a chance to develop three 60 pitches, and that he's also shown a change that's above average. 

 

He was thought to be one of the two or three best pitchers in this draft, and it's important to note that many pros think the chances that the others (Tate and Fulmer) end up in the pen might be higher than that of Jay's.

I agree that Jay was definitely not a reach at #6, but I do think it is important to recognize why he was available at #6. If he had started all year, stayed healthy, kept his stuff, and performed as well as he did as a reliever, then he probably goes 1-1. But the risk is that nobody knows for certain how his arm is going to react to being a starter. Sure, he has performed well in longer outings this year, which mitigates some of that risk. But the risk isn't zero, and it is perfectly reasonable for different people to rate that risk differently. I personally think it is a big risk, despite what the experts are suggesting. But I am biased toward pitchers who have demonstrated durability and stamina. 

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I agree that Jay was definitely not a reach at #6, but I do think it is important to recognize why he was available at #6. If he had started all year, stayed healthy, kept his stuff, and performed as well as he did as a reliever, then he probably goes 1-1. But the risk is that nobody knows for certain how his arm is going to react to being a starter. Sure, he has performed well in longer outings this year, which mitigates some of that risk. But the risk isn't zero, and it is perfectly reasonable for different people to rate that risk differently. I personally think it is a big risk, despite what the experts are suggesting. But I am biased toward pitchers who have demonstrated durability and stamina. 

 

Said another way, we may have taken the guy with the most upside in the draft.  At 1-6 in a relatively weaker draft...we took a lefty that has four pitches and good command, with two plus pitches and potentially another.  I also heard two different people say he has deception in his delivery.

 

I will take this all day.

 

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I mean, i was hopeing we'd get Bregman or Tucker but with those 2 off the board, my top guy was Tyler Jay.

Good Job Twins, and Daz Cameron wanting 5 million is a joke.

 

Unfortunately, it really seems like the "best" five players went off the board before the Twins selected Jay. This is a good lesson for those who somehow think that the Twins should be better at this stuff than other teams. It's just not realistic to think that any organization will limit their scouting investment on these early-round prospects. They're ALL going to be good at this stuff. And thorough. The Twins apparently did not miss a single game Jay pitched in this season, for heaven's sake

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Glad they went upside here.  Not a huge fan of the pick, but I think that has more to do with me not being a huge fan of the draft this year.  Allard was my guy, but what do I know?   He went 14th, so I'm guessing a few others didn't think he was the BPA there either. 

 

The real issue as I see it is a crowd forming for the rotation in a couple years.  That isn't a bad thing, but they will still have Nughes, Nolasco, and Santana under contract with Berrios, May, Gibson, Duffey, (presumably Jay), Rogers, Meyer, and Dean all potentially making a case for a spot.  They are going to have to trade off some of these guys or simply release them.  That doesn't include guys like Hu, Thorpe, Gonsalves, or Stewart who could all suddenly rise pretty quick.   

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Glad they went upside here.  Not a huge fan of the pick, but I think that has more to do with me not being a huge fan of the draft this year.  Allard was my guy, but what do I know?   He went 14th, so I'm guessing a few others didn't think he was the BPA there either. 

 

The real issue as I see it is a crowd forming for the rotation in a couple years.  That isn't a bad thing, but they will still have Nughes, Nolasco, and Santana under contract with Berrios, May, Gibson, Duffey, (presumably Jay), Rogers, Meyer, and Dean all potentially making a case for a spot.  They are going to have to trade off some of these guys or simply release them.  That doesn't include guys like Hu, Thorpe, Gonsalves, or Stewart who could all suddenly rise pretty quick.   

Well, if it comes to that, they can trade pitching.  That's usually pretty valuable.

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I really liked the Cody pick.  I was hoping he could pitch himself into the top 10 at the beginning of the year. 

 

McDaniel on him: "Cody is an enigma, as a massive righty that throws three above average pitches at times and can run his sinker into the mid-90's, but he was jerked around by his coaches this year, is a lower energy player that doesn't always respond well to adversity and the secondary stuff and command came and went at times. Cody came on down the stretch and there's buzz he could go in the top 30 picks to the right team."

 

I don't know what people see in this guy. The bolded portion is a huge red flag to me. I bet he doesn't make it out of High-A ball. Making it to the majors require you to be able to handle adversity. Furthermore, I don't give a *expletive deleted* how fast a fastball is, if its straight and there's no quality secondary pitches, pro hitters are going to hit. 

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I don't know what people see in this guy. The bolded portion is a huge red flag to me. I bet he doesn't make it out of High-A ball. Making it to the majors require you to be able to handle adversity. Furthermore, I don't give a *expletive deleted* how fast a fastball is, if its straight and there's no quality secondary pitches, pro hitters are going to hit. 

Well, that's a problem but it's also how you get a diamond in the rough.  McDaniel noted "Cody came on down the stretch and there's buzz he could go in the top 30 picks to the right team.."

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Unfortunately, it really seems like the "best" five players went off the board before the Twins selected Jay. This is a good lesson for those who somehow think that the Twins should be better at this stuff than other teams. It's just not realistic to think that any organization will limit their scouting investment on these early-round prospects. They're ALL going to be good at this stuff. And thorough. The Twins apparently did not miss a single game Jay pitched in this season, for heaven's sake

 

if your strategy is to not buy a championship, you have to be better, or your strategy won't work. This isn't some "lesson" we have to learn. How condescending.

 

It's just a weird coincidence that some teams haven't lost 90+ games even 1 time in the last 10+ years? We disagree on this, but at least I don't make condescending remarks about it.

Edited by mike wants wins
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Not a fan of the Tyler Jay pick, either. Not because I'm concerned that he's going to lose velo on his fastball starting- because he is. He's got multiple plus secondary pitches to offset the decrease in velocity- that's huge.

 

I'm worried that he'll lose his command, and potentially the movement on his fastball and breaking pitches- in other words, I'm worried he becomes very hittable as he's stretched out into a starter's role. There's probably a reason his coach had him in the bullpen- and not the rotation at Illinois. And don't tell me it's because he's a moron, because their season has been very successful. 

 

I would have preferred either Fulmer, who has shown the ability to miss bats while actually in the rotation and against a higher level of competition, or Ian Happ. While there isn't any star power-upside in this draft, it's strength is the depth of polished college hitters. I'm afraid we have missed our opportunity to grab a couple of bats with on-base ability- something that seems lacking in the Twins' system. 

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Well, that's a problem but it's also how you get a diamond in the rough.  McDaniel noted "Cody came on down the stretch and there's buzz he could go in the top 30 picks to the right team.."

 

"Down the stretch" is an awfully small sample size. The body of work- and trend of improvement over multiple seasons is more important. He had an ERA of nearly 5 this season. Allowed nearly a hit per inning, and 1.23 HR/9. He averaged K/9 of 7.22 throughout his collegiate career. I don't care if he throws 96- he simply doesn't miss bats. And if his make-up is poor, he's not going to be around too long.

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Not a fan of the Tyler Jay pick, either. Not because I'm concerned that he's going to lose velo on his fastball starting- because he is. He's got multiple plus secondary pitches to offset the decrease in velocity- that's huge.

 

I'm worried that he'll lose his command, and potentially the movement on his fastball and breaking pitches- in other words, I'm worried he becomes very hittable as he's stretched out into a starter's role. There's probably a reason his coach had him in the bullpen- and not the rotation at Illinois. And don't tell me it's because he's a moron, because their season has been very successful. 

 

I would have preferred either Fulmer, who has shown the ability to miss bats while actually in the rotation and against a higher level of competition, or Ian Happ. While there isn't any star power-upside in this draft, it's strength is the depth of polished college hitters. I'm afraid we have missed our opportunity to grab a couple of bats with on-base ability- something that seems lacking in the Twins' system. 

Fulmer is expected to be a reliever for two reasons - 1) Height (see all Berrios threads) and 2) a max effort delivery.  Of all the guys in the draft, he was the one I was most frightened of drafting. 

 

Jay is a good pick.  His stuff grades out well and scouts think he can start.  Had he been a starter this year, we wouldn't have gotten him at 6. 

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"Down the stretch" is an awfully small sample size. The body of work- and trend of improvement over multiple seasons is more important. He had an ERA of nearly 5 this season. Allowed nearly a hit per inning, and 1.23 HR/9. He averaged K/9 of 7.22 throughout his collegiate career. I don't care if he throws 96- he simply doesn't miss bats. And if his make-up is poor, he's not going to be around too long.

That's all possible, but for the 73rd pick I'm pretty happy.

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