Article: Official Twins Daily Draft Day Thread & Cheat Sheet

[John Bonnes]

The 2015 MLB Draft is tonight, and while we know a lot of Twins Daily readers have been following our coverage for weeks, we know some of you are looking for a cheat sheet. So here it is:

 

Who will the Twins take?

Oh, c’mon, skipping right to dessert? Actually, I kind of respect that. The answer is we don’t know, and we don’t think they know. So let’s see if we can figure it out together…Where/when do the Twins draft?

They have the sixth overall pick and the draft starts about 7:00 and takes about five minutes per pick, so they should choose about 7:40 (Eastern, 6:37 Central, to be exact). You can follow along in the comments section below or tune into KFAN 100.3 where Jeremy Nygaard, Seth Stohs and John Bonnes will be covering the pick live from 7:00 - 8:00.

 

What else happens on Monday night?

The Twins forfeited their second-round draft pick when they signed Ervin Santana to a free agent contract. However, they did receive a bonus compensation pick, #73 overall. They will make that selection later in the evening.

 

How is this draft class?

It’s a little weak. There are no clear, stand-alone top picks, which makes it a very interesting draft. Every mock draft has a slightly different order for the picks before the Twins, which makes it nearly impossible to predict who the Twins will be able to pick, let alone who they prefer to pick.

 

So who do the mock drafts say the Twins will take?

Baseball America says Kyle Tucker, a toolsy prep outfielder, that Parker profiled here.

ESPN’s Keith Law thinks it will be Kolby Allard, a left-handed prep pitcher who might be injured and whom Jeremy Nygaard profiled here.

MLB.com went with Tyler Jay, a left-handed college pitcher who profiles as a starter but has been working as a reliever, profiled by Steve Lein here.

FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniels thinks the Twins will draft RHP Dillon Tate, who Jeremy Nygaard said would likely not fall to the Twins.

 

Who else is in play?

The draft is strong in shortstops and they might all be gone before the Twins get to pick. Their Twins Daily profiles are here:

 

Dansby Swanson

Brendan Rodgers

Alex Bregman

 

There are a few other pitchers that the Twins could choose over Jay or Allard

Dillon Tate

Carson Fulmer

Brady Aiken

Walker Buehler

Kyle Funkhouser

Jon Harris

 

And finally, a few outfielders who could be in play.

 

Andrew Benintendi

Daz Cameron

 

So who will the Twins take?

You're just not going to let that go, are you? Here is Jeremy's Final Mock Draft. There is nobody who is more plugged in to the Twins final thoughts on this pick than he - at least not outside of the organization.

 

So, who do you think the Twins will select when their turn on the clock rolls around? Do you have a personal favorite? This is what comment sections are for....

 

Click here to view the article

[AlwaysinModeration]

Who I think the Twins will take: Tucker.

Who I want the Twins to take: Aiken.

Pick I would be disappointed with: Allard.

 

Quite simply, Aiken seems to have the biggest upside of any player in the draft, and last year and six months ago it would have been impossible or considered impossible for the Twins to get him. It's of course a risk of being a whiff, but what the hell, swing for the fences.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Just saw a Terry Ryan quote: "Someone is going to fall."

 

Tate or Bregman?

Could Brendan Rodgers somehow last until #6?

[gbg]

If the Mock Draft is tonight, as the lead paragraph states, when's the real one?;-)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Just saw a Terry Ryan quote: "Someone is going to fall."

Tate or Bregman?
Could Brendan Rodgers somehow last until #6?

 

It's an interesting quote, especially from the GM, a "falling" player means their perceived value is higher than what the slot suggests it is. I've been told that saying a player "fell" is something teams are careful not to say. 

 

For example:

 

Agent: My guy fell to you, huh? We thought so too... so pay us like the second pick we both know he deserved to be.

[Seth Stohs]

 

If the Mock Draft is tonight, as the lead paragraph states, when's the real one?;-)

 

Corrected... Thank you!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Just saw a Terry Ryan quote: "Someone is going to fall."

Tate or Bregman?
Could Brendan Rodgers somehow last until #6?

 

I don't think he's speaking to anyone particular. It's kind of a throw-away comment. The odds are that someone who they (and experts) don't think will be available will be available. Maybe it's Tate. Maybe it's Bregman. Who knows? 

 

They'll have their draft board and then they'll pleasantly be surprised with who is available.

[Monkeypaws]

Cameron would be a good candidate to drop - the Boras effect.

[gunnarthor]

 

Cameron would be a good candidate to drop - the Boras effect.

Lots of rumors about Cameron.  Some suggest that the Astros can save enough money with their first two picks to nab him at 37 and still pay out a ton.  Others say he doesn't drop past the Yankees or Braves, no matter what.  

 

Personally, I think he's high on the Twins wish list and could easily get picked by us.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I don't think he's speaking to anyone particular. It's kind of a throw-away comment. The odds are that someone who they (and experts) don't think will be available will be available. Maybe it's Tate. Maybe it's Bregman. Who knows? 

 

They'll have their draft board and then they'll pleasantly be surprised with who is available.

 

I'm not doubting that... (but I've also been told that I "sound like an agent" sometimes when I talk to people).

 

Then what he should have said is, "We're in a position to get a player we REALLY like."

[nytwinsfan]

My Board (based completely off things others have written and snippets of video, not any actual scouting):

(1) Swanson

(2) Rodgers

(3) Bregman

(4) Tate

(5) Tucker

(6) Jay

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Lots of rumors about Cameron.  Some suggest that the Astros can save enough money with their first two picks to nab him at 37 and still pay out a ton.  Others say he doesn't drop past the Yankees or Braves, no matter what.  

 

Personally, I think he's high on the Twins wish list and could easily get picked by us.

 

I suggested that right here.

[twinssouth]

If you're going upside, I'd roll the dice on Aiken

[DocBauer]

i would agree with Aiken except for one thing; health risk. I have said multiple times this is the absolutely perfect time for th Twins to make an unconventional move and just grab the guy with the biggest upside, that potential star player. Preferably a high end LHSP, probably the hardest thing to find in baseball. My problem/concern with Aiken is not is TJ surgery, it's all the rumors that something isn't right with his arm, may never be, one day he will simply self combust on the mound, etc. And after all the reports I've read, I'm still not certain I fully understand his injury situation.

 

Allard and Jay are probably my two picks. There is risk with both. But there also seems to be legit top of the rotation type of potential from both of them.

[DocBauer]

Were I in charge and could have a few things fall my way, my draft strategy would be as follows:

 

1:as previously mentioned, the biggest potential payoff at #6, even with risk involved.

 

2: with no second round pick this year, and reports that the Twins will be judicious with the number of signings they make, you have the flexibility to add powerful, talented arms...(without passing on a BPA position ally speaking in any given round)...and know that you have the financial capability to over spend by slot to sign them.

 

3: in the first 10 rounds, I'm looking for the top catching prospect I can find. I might even be seriously tempted to select him a round higher than my board says. I think Turner and Garver are very interesting and solid prospects. But if you look at the depth of the Twins system, there are legit, big time prospects on the mound, in the pen, and all across the OF and even the INF, but there is a lack of a TOP catching prospect that makes you think "can't miss".

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just saw a Terry Ryan quote: "Someone is going to fall."

Tate or Bregman?
Could Brendan Rodgers somehow last until #6?

 

they always say that, then they can say "we are so glad he fell, didn't think we'd get a guy like this".....

[kab21]

My concern with TJ is with the high number of repeat TJ surgeries.  This is a new trend in the last couple of years.  I think the upside is high enough with the other picks that it isn't necessary to pick Aiken.

[blairpaul715]

It is funny, in football or basketball if a player does drop to you, you say "we had him #1 on our board" but in baseball you dont dare say that, cuz the player and agent then will want #1 money

[ashbury]

I'm not doubting that... (but I've also been told that I "sound like an agent" sometimes when I talk to people).

 

Then what he should have said is, "We're in a position to get a player we REALLY like."

I have seen various formats for mock drafts and so forth, but have you tackled this question: what is your guess of the ranking the Twins have for themselves, taking everything (best player available, organizational need) into account, all the way from 1 through 6? Who would they take if they picked #1, who would they take second if that guy was gone, and so on.

 

In a draft like this year's, every team may literally have a different ordering (some players in one team's top 6 that don't appear in another's). Teams down the line have to be ready.

 

Armed with such a ranking, we'd presumably be mimicking the Twins' thought process - if the players happen to go in the order the Twins rank them, so be it, they take #6 and are happy - if multiple players on the list are available then they know which one to take without a bunch of debate and drama in the style Brad Pitt showed us in Moneyball, or in that stupid recent movie about the NFL, Draft Day.

[InfraRen]

Keith Law's final mock has Twins with Dillon Tate.

[twinsfanstreif]

My Board (based completely off things others have written and snippets of video, not any actual scouting):

(1) Swanson

(2) Rodgers

(3) Bregman

(4) Tate

(5) Tucker

(6) Jay

 

That's my board too although I would maybe consider Aiken instead of Jay and Rodgers and Bregman are really close to me

[nytwinsfan]

 

Keith Law's final mock has Twins with Dillon Tate.

 

 Kiley McDaniel too. Interesting, all the mocks are pointing to Tate or Jay, but Kiley says (and I think Jeremy would agree) that Tucker and Bregman are still in the mix (although Bregman much less likely to fall). I'd take any of them over Cameron.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I have seen various formats for mock drafts and so forth, but have you tackled this question: what is your guess of the ranking the Twins have for themselves, taking everything (best player available, organizational need) into account, all the way from 1 through 6? Who would they take if they picked #1, who would they take second if that guy was gone, and so on.

 

My best guess:

 

1) Swanson

2) Rodgers

3) Bregman

4) Tate

5) Tucker

6) Jay or Allard

 

But that doesn't take into account the big thing: $$$

 

Jay moves up - as high as 4 - with a knockout performance this afternoon, but slips if he doesn't.

 

With that being said, if the Twins were drafting at #3, they might have Cameron on the board, so besides him, money isn't a factor (cause I'm not privy to the information).

[markos]

 

 Kiley McDaniel too. Interesting, all the mocks are pointing to Tate or Jay, but Kiley says (and I think Jeremy would agree) that Tucker and Bregman are still in the mix (although Bregman much less likely to fall). I'd take any of them over Cameron.

 

Tidbit in McDaniel's last post: 

 

 

I’m told that Cameron’s adviser wasn’t shopping his name in the last few days, suggesting the landing spots are already in place (likely 5, 7, 9 or 37). I’m told Brady Aiken also isn’t being shopped around, either, while Funkhouser and Randolph don’t seem to be as settled as Aiken on Cameron and are still looking for homes.

 

I find it interesting that Aiken has a home, and I wonder what his price is.

[Bob Sacamento]

Deron Johnson on record stating that the organization really has a lull of power arms, (that's why focus last year on Burdi, Cedaroth and Reed so high) but if they take a Pitcher with their first round pick they believe he can stay in the rotation.

[cmb0252]

The last two years we have known who the pick will be. Definitely not like that this year. Should be fun! Hoping for it to be one of the SS, tucker, or Tate.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Deron Johnson on record stating that the organization really has a lull of power arms, (that's why focus last year on Burdi, Cedaroth and Reed so high) but if they take a Pitcher with their first round pick they believe he can stay in the rotation.

 

They have aren't exactly flush with hitters below AA either......

[Seth Stohs]

 

Deron Johnson on record stating that the organization really has a lull of power arms, (that's why focus last year on Burdi, Cedaroth and Reed so high) but if they take a Pitcher with their first round pick they believe he can stay in the rotation.

 

On Inside Twins yesterday, they said they made a real effort to add velocity starting about 3 years ago, and we've definitely seen that in the draft. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

They have aren't exactly flush with hitters below AA either......

 

Right... they got hitter heavy, and in the last 2-3 drafts the focus has turned to pitching. I think that's why we're seeing that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Right... they got hitter heavy, and in the last 2-3 drafts the focus has turned to pitching. I think that's why we're seeing that.

 

Agreed, and I'm not complaining at all ..... just saying that the statement that they might take pitching because they lack arms.....and AA is STACKED.....well, I was just saying the could use more hitters in A-, A also.