Article: MLB Draft Preview: Final Mock

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Regardless of what happens over the next 24 hours, this will be my last mock.

 

Be sure to listen to me, the Twins Geek, John Bonnes, and Seth Stohs tomorrow on KFAN from 7-8 pm. Guaranteed to be some good draft talk.

 

It’s the same old story: The Astros - who don’t even hold the #1 pick this year - hold the key to the draft. And there is a really good chance they walk away from it having totally redeemed themselves for last’s year mess.

 

This much is clear: Nothing’s clear. The Diamondbacks are still weighing their options.But the Astros only have to come up with two initial plans. Piecing things together it sounds like it could come down to this: The first of their plans is to take Swanson. If they take Swanson, he will take a significant amount of their #2 slot to sign. Then they’ll go BPA at #5 and will be able to find someone falling at #37. You walk away from - probably - the better plan to get the best player in the draft.

 

The second of their plans is to take Alex Bregman. Bregman could provide them with some savings and more flexibility going forward. That’s where they’ll be able to pull a repeat of their Draft Heist of 2012. Depending on what happens at #3 and #4, there is a very good chance that the two players they like the most, Daz Cameron and Carson Fulmer, are still available. And they might just be able to get them both.

 

If Cameron goes at #3 or #4, which is real possibility at #4 anyway, the likelihood would be that the Astros go with Tucker and take a falling arm at #37 (Justin Hooper?) with money to spend there.

 

If, however, both are available, the Astros take Fulmer (or another college pitcher) and wait. It’s a risk, sure, but not an unprecedented one: the Royals did it when they overdrafted Hunter Dozier to get Sean Manaea later. No way they get both otherwise. With every pick that Cameron doesn’t go - first the Twins, then the Red Sox - the likelihood that Cameron gets drafted goes down, because, of course, how do any of those teams pony up $5 million? Once Cameron makes it past the local Braves, it’s smooth sailing. (There may, however, be a few tense moments when the Royals, Dodgers and Yankees make their picks). Next thing you know, Astros are up getting Daz Cameron for $5 million at #37.

 

Bregman. Fulmer. Cameron. Wow.

 

How does the rest of the draft shake out?

 

1) Arizona: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt (no change)

2) Houston: Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Previous: Daz Cameron)

3) Colorado: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Florida HS (no change)

4) Texas: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara (no change)

5) Houston: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Previous: Bregman)

6) Minnesota: Kyle Tucker, OF, Florida HS (no change)

 

I have a hard time believing the Twins pass on either Bregman or Tate or Tucker. In the event that all three players are gone, Kolby Allard and, potentially, Tyler Jay rise to the top.

 

7) Boston: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas (Previous: Fulmer)

8) Chicago (AL): Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (no change)

9) Chicago (NL): Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State (previous: Benintendi)

10) Philadelphia: Tyler Stephenson, C, Atlanta HS (previous: Walker Buehler)

 

This is a change I made later. Stephenson is a wild card, working out for many teams and literally could go #1 or go #14.

 

11) Cincinnati: Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati (previous: Harris)

12) Miami: Trenton Clark, OF, Texas HS (no change)

13) Tampa Bay: James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA (no change)

14) Atlanta: Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy (previous: Stephenson)

 

The Braves have a lot of picks and with that comes a lot of money. They also haven’t shied away from acquiring players - like Max Fried - who have been injured. This would be a great addition to the prospect stable.

 

15) Milwaukee: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville (no change)

16) New York (AL): Garrett Whitley, OF, New York HS (no change)

17) Cleveland: Kolby Allard, LHP, California HS (no change)

18) San Francisco: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Pennsylvania HS (no change)

19) Pittsburgh: Ashe Russell, RHP, Indiana HS (no change)

20) Oakland: Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt (previous: Dewees)

21) Kansas City: Cornelius Randolph, SS, Georgia HS (previous: Aiken)

22) Detroit: Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia (previous: Donny Everett)

23) St Louis: Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona (no change)

24) Los Angeles (NL): Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke (previous: Kirby)

 

Both the Tigers and the Dodgers are teams that don’t seem to care about the cost of spending money. They could acquire talented but injured players who never would have made it to them otherwise.

 

25) Baltimore: Donnie Dewees, OF, North Florida (previous: Happ)

26) Los Angeles (AL): D.J. Stewart, OF, Florida State (previous: Phil Bickford)

27) Colorado: Jacob Nix, RHP, IMG Academy

28) Atlanta: Jalen Miller, SS, Georgia HS

29) Toronto: Donny Everett, RHP, Tennessee HS

30) New York (AL): Chris Betts, C, California HS

31) San Francisco: Nick Plummer, OF, Michigan HS

32) Pittsburgh: Jake Woodford, RHP, Florida HS

33) Kansas City: Phil Bickford, LHP, College of Southern Nevada

 

Bickford should go higher, but tested positive for marijuana recently and will likely drop because of it.

 

34) Detroit: Cody Ponce, RHP, Cal Poly Ponoma

35) Los Angeles (NL): Justin Hooper, LHP, California HS

36) Baltimore: Alex Young, LHP, Texas Christian

37) Houston: Daz Cameron, OF, Georgia HS

 

And there you have it - the Astros pull a major coup and leave with three of the top 10 talents in the draft.

 

There's been a ton of other draft-related news on the site, so if you've missed any of it, catch up with these links:

 

Swanson/Rodgers/Tate

Walker Buehler

Andrew Benintendi

Kyle Funkhouser

Carson Fulmer

Tyler Jay

Brady Aiken & Kolby Allard

Kyle Tucker

Jon Harris

Alex Bregman

Daz Cameron

 

There is also one more set of profiles - The Local Crew - that is yet to come.

 

Click here to view the article

[Hrbowski]

I'm a bit of a cheater, and plan on doing one a couple of hours before the draft, but it will probably be no significant change.

[silverslugger]

So you're thinking the Twins like Tucker more than Cameron at this point?  Is Cameron just not as signable?  Perhaps you could give what you see as the Twins board, top 7 or 8?

 

Thanks for all your analysis Jeremy, it's been fun to read.

[nytwinsfan]

Really hope we get Tate, Tucker, Bregman, or Jay (assuming we won't get Swanson or Rodgers for sure). Don't prefer Cameron or Allard.

[tobi0040]

I watched MLB TV countdown their top 50 prospects.

 

1. Rodgers

2. Swanson (all agreed he goes 1)

3. Fullmer

4 Bregman

5 Tate

6. Cameron

7 tucker

8 jay

 

They talked that all three top pitchers are not locks to remain starters. If the twins feel like that is the case, it cements the view I share that it will be tucker.

 

One thing they said about Tucker that stood out to me is that he is not athletically gifted or something like that. I hope jay is the guy. Or Tate if he is there.

[gunnarthor]

Don't worry, it's the Astros - They'll figure out a way to **** it up.

[kab21]

I think Cameron is signable for the Twins but it will definitely mean that they can't go overslot in rds 2-4 and likely mean that they need to consider underslot picks at one or more picks in rds 2-10.  That's a stiff price to pay.  I like the interesting possibility of the Astros banking enough money to draft Cameron later.  Intriguing but I think he will get picked.  It is hard for a prospect to sit out a year and re-enter in what is likely a stronger class.

[tobi0040]

Correction. Benintendi is 8. Jay is 9.

 

The term they used with tucker is "nothing looks pure and easy with him". However they said he gets the barrel on the ball and a hunter pence comp. even though every guy in the first round will get comped to a better than average player and we all know that won't happen.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think Cameron is signable for the Twins but it will definitely mean that they can't go overslot in rds 2-4 and likely mean that they need to consider underslot picks at one or more picks in rds 2-10.  That's a stiff price to pay.  I like the interesting possibility of the Astros banking enough money to draft Cameron later.  Intriguing but I think he will get picked.  It is hard for a prospect to sit out a year and re-enter in what is likely a stronger class.

I think the Twins do what the White Sox did.  Sign everyone else and then negotiate with Cameron.  He's not going to college.  The Twins will offer him a bit more than slot.  He'll sign.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Taking Cameron would be a risky move. I'm not putting it at 0%, but the fact the Doogie is reporting that Trenton Clark just worked out for the Twins may suggest it's close to 0%.

[Tibs]

Tucker would be a great pick. Bregman is a good player, but not what I'm looking for with the #6 pick. Questioning if the top pitchers can stay in the rotation before their careers even start is concerning too. I don't view Cameron as a talent that is good enough to affect the draft strategy for the rest of the rounds because of his price tag.

[Carneal&Gordon]

Jeremy,

 

What are your thoughts on Clark? Haven't heard too much about him.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm a bit of a cheater, and plan on doing one a couple of hours before the draft, but it will probably be no significant change.

 

If anyone is interested, you can check out Hrbowski's most recent mock draft too. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy,

What are your thoughts on Clark? Haven't heard too much about him.

 

I don't hate Clark; just didn't keep him too much on the radar when it seemed evident the Twins would go in any of a number of different directions.

 

Clark is a good athlete, projects to be a good hitter and is fast. You could almost view him as a lefty-hitting "Buxton-lite" with a future as a center fielder. 

[kab21]

 

I think the Twins do what the White Sox did.  Sign everyone else and then negotiate with Cameron.  He's not going to college.  The Twins will offer him a bit more than slot.  He'll sign.

Rodon got 700K more than slot though.  The White Sox had to pick at least one underslot player in the rest of the draft. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Rodon got 700K more than slot though.  The White Sox had to pick at least one underslot player in the rest of the draft. 

The White Sox went to the max they could on Rodon without having to give up a pick in the 2015 draft.

 

Current draft rules establish an overall signing budget for each team, based on the combined pick values for all of its selections in the first 10 rounds. Teams that exceed the budget pay a 75 percent tax on the overage, and if they go more than 5 percent over budget they lose a first-round pick in the next draft.

In three drafts under the new rules (this year is the third), no team has shown a willingness to do that. (Teams that go 10 percent over also lose a second-round pick, and teams that go more than 15 percent over lose two second-round picks, but it does not appear that teams will ever flirt with those penalties.)

[blairpaul715]

 

The White Sox went to the max they could on Rodon without having to give up a pick in the 2015 draft.

 

Current draft rules establish an overall signing budget for each team, based on the combined pick values for all of its selections in the first 10 rounds. Teams that exceed the budget pay a 75 percent tax on the overage, and if they go more than 5 percent over budget they lose a first-round pick in the next draft.

In three drafts under the new rules (this year is the third), no team has shown a willingness to do that. (Teams that go 10 percent over also lose a second-round pick, and teams that go more than 15 percent over lose two second-round picks, but it does not appear that teams will ever flirt with those penalties.)

I think if they go over 15% they lose 2 1st rd picks not second round, i am just guessing you misspoke or miswrote

[InfraRen]

Pretty wild the amount of different names that have shown up at the #6 spot just in the last 2 weeks on various mock drafts out there. 

 

The unpredictability of what will happen tonight is pretty fun, actually.

Edited June 8, 2015 by InfraRen

[kab21]

 

The White Sox went to the max they could on Rodon without having to give up a pick in the 2015 draft.

 

Current draft rules establish an overall signing budget for each team, based on the combined pick values for all of its selections in the first 10 rounds. Teams that exceed the budget pay a 75 percent tax on the overage, and if they go more than 5 percent over budget they lose a first-round pick in the next draft.

In three drafts under the new rules (this year is the third), no team has shown a willingness to do that. (Teams that go 10 percent over also lose a second-round pick, and teams that go more than 15 percent over lose two second-round picks, but it does not appear that teams will ever flirt with those penalties.)

They used other ways to come up with more money to sign Rodon.  They basically threw away their 6th and 8th rd picks to come up with an extra 400K that went to Rodon.  Perhaps that is a good strategy but that's what I was talking about by having to go underslot later in the draft. 

[blairpaul715]

 

They used other ways to come up with more money to sign Rodon.  They basically threw away their 6th and 8th rd picks to come up with an extra 400K that went to Rodon.  Perhaps that is a good strategy but that's what I was talking about by having to go underslot later in the draft. 

And i dont like that strategy myself, but i guess if your minor leagues is stocked with talent, then you could, and the Twins are pretty stocked, but I still wouldnt do it.

[tobi0040]

Gammons is saying Boston wants Benintendi at 7, but may lose him to the Astros at 5.

[kab21]

 

And i dont like that strategy myself, but i guess if your minor leagues is stocked with talent, then you could, and the Twins are pretty stocked, but I still wouldnt do it.

 

I'm not sure what to think of it.  How many 6th or 8th rd'ers really contribute?  Of course some do but not many.

 

But my point was that signing Rodon wasn't as simple as just using the +5% allowable overage.  Money came from elsewhere.  The area where it becomes a bigger issue is that the Twins wouldn't be able to go overslot in rds 2-4 for a guy like Gonsalves that dropped.

[InfraRen]

Edited June 8, 2015 by InfraRen

[tobi0040]

 

 

Works for me.  70 fastball and 65 slider.

[InfraRen]

 

Works for me.  70 fastball and 65 slider.

Sorry, I must have edited this JUST before you quoted - I put into the draft day thread.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

I'm not sure what to think of it.  How many 6th or 8th rd'ers really contribute?  Of course some do but not many.

 

But my point was that signing Rodon wasn't as simple as just using the +5% allowable overage.  Money came from elsewhere.  The area where it becomes a bigger issue is that the Twins wouldn't be able to go overslot in rds 2-4 for a guy like Gonsalves that dropped.

 

The irony being when I was reviewing my past shadow drafts last night, I was pondering if my biggest whiff was on an 8th rounder (Dozier).

 

But IMO, there's two ways to look at it. I'm pretty sure the White Sox don't regret going over slot for Rodon. On the transitive side of things, I don't think the Astros regret the way things ended with Aiken either, since whomever they end up with at #2 will be a pretty good consolation prize. The way compensation picks work in this day in age, you have to take the best player on your board in round one and either A) find a way to make it work or cut bait and take the pick next year. If Cameron is the highest player left on the Twins board at 6, you go for it. Bonus demands and agent be damned. There's not a lot of risk in losing a #6 pick in this day and age, especially in a thin draft.

[Bob Sacamento]

Tidbits from Deron Johnson:

 

- Terry Ryan has final say

-  Taking Aiken is "above his pay grade" due to medical reports

-  first 5 picks take best player available, then look at organization need after 5th Rd

- if take pitcher early got to believe can stay in rotation

-  Twins worked out 40 players for the draft, 6 in Target Field,  Georgia/California/Florida workouts as well

- Twins have medical staff in place with protocol for last 4-5 years

-  Twins war room doesn't get too heated as many have worked together in organization for 20+ years

-  Says Buxton most athletic player he's seen in his lifetime with tremendous work ethic

- Nick Gordon grew 1 1/2 inches and gained 15lb since being drafted

-  Doesn't matter if took a SS last year if the player they want is available they will take a SS

-  Says organization lacking power arms that's why went for Burdi, Cederoth, and Reed last year, it was also the draft's strength - they had starters rated higher but they went off the board

- Says the organization uses the new Complex in Ft Myers to attract players when visiting them at their home (draft and international); 2-3 personal cooks on the premises to ensure proper nutrition, English speaking classes, player safety and curfew.

-  Deron will be touring the Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers teams the second half of the season; he'll be in CR next week

Edited June 8, 2015 by Bob Sacamento

[tobi0040]

 

Tidbits from Deron Johnson:

 

- Terry Ryan has final say

-  Taking Aiken is "above his pay grade" due to medical reports

-  first 5 picks take best player available, then look at organization need after 5th Rd

- if take pitcher early got to believe can stay in rotation

-  Twins worked out 40 players for the draft, 6 in Target Field,  Georgia/California/Florida workouts as well

- Twins have medical staff in place with protocol for last 4-5 years

-  Twins war room doesn't get too heated as many have worked together in organization for 20+ years

-  Says Buxton most athletic player he's seen in his lifetime with tremendous work ethic

- Nick Gordon grew 1 1/2 inches and gained 15lb since being drafted

-  Doesn't matter if took a SS last year if the player they want is available they will take a SS

-  Says organization lacking power arms that's why went for Burdi, Cederoth, and Reed last year, it was also the draft's strength - they had starters rated higher but they went off the board

- Says the organization uses the new Complex in Ft Myers to attract players when visiting them at their home (draft and international); 2-3 personal cooks on the premises to ensure proper nutrition, English speaking classes, player safety and curfew.

-  Deron will be touring the Cedar Rapids and Ft. Myers teams the second half of the season; he'll be in CR next week

 

Classic double speak.  We go BPA in the first five rounds....yet last year we took a bunch of relievers because we needed them even though we had starters rated higher.

 

 

[drjim]

 

Classic double speak.  We go BPA in the first five rounds....yet last year we took a bunch of relievers because we needed them even though we had starters rated higher.

 

Did you hear that correctly or did I? I thought he said they had starters rated highly that got drafted just ahead of where they took the relievers. So the reason they took so many relievers was in response to the way the draft was going, not because they specifically targeted relievers.

[tobi0040]

 

Did you hear that correctly or did I? I thought he said they had starters rated highly that got drafted just ahead of where they took the relievers. So the reason they took so many relievers was in response to the way the draft was going, not because they specifically targeted relievers.

 

You mean those last few words mean something? Woops

Edited June 8, 2015 by tobi0040