Article: When Will Molitor Start Making Adjustments?

[Nick Nelson]

Paul Molitor's managerial career has gotten off to such a charmed start that it's been tough to criticize him. Nearly every move that the skipper has made -- even those that appeared highly questionable at the time -- has worked out, and that's reflected in a tremendously surprising 32-21 record through roughly one-third of the schedule.

 

The offense has shown signs of beginning to scuffle, however, and so his handling of lineups and personnel becomes more open to scrutiny.Everyday Eddie

 

The most puzzling and irksome trait of Molitor's first couple months on the job has been an inexplicable commitment to getting Eduardo Escobar into the lineup as often as possible. It'd be one thing if that meant starting him at shortstop, where offensive expectations are lowered and Danny Santana has been horrible, but only seven of Escobar's starts have come there.

 

Instead, Molitor has constantly plugged Escobar in at offense-driven positions; namely left field (20 times) and designated hitter (six times). His performance at the plate has been rather miserable: .228/.250/.345 with 38 strikeouts and three walks in 153 plate appearances. That kind of production could only be viewed as adequate from a utility man who plays sparingly, and that's the role Escobar should be filling.

 

Yet Molitor evidently has a perception of the 26-year-old as a quality hitter. Whether that stems from Escobar's career year in 2014 or his nice spring, I don't know, but at some point the rookie skipper needs to come to terms with what has been obvious throughout the majority of Escobar's career and certainly over these first two months: he has a weak bat.

 

Gad Zukes

 

Depending on who you're talking to, viewpoints on proper lineup construction can vary, but almost everyone would agree that the fifth spot in the lineup ought to be reserved for a power bat. Place quality hitters in the top four spots and follow up with a slugger that can drive them in. Kennys Vargas, who opened the season as Minnesota's No. 5 hitter, was just that. Kurt Suzuki, who has filled that spot 15 times since the start of May, is quite the opposite.

 

Early in his career, Suzuki did show a little pop, reaching double digits in homers each year from 2009 through 2011. Since then, though, he has totaled 16 homers in 384 games with a .347 slugging percentage. This year, it's at .324.

 

Obviously there aren't a lot of great alternative options at this point, but Suzuki belongs nowhere near the middle of the lineup on a competing team.

 

The Wrong Guys

 

So, about those alternative options... It's true that Molitor doesn't have a whole lot to work with when trying to assemble lineups at this point, but the club's personnel decisions have handcuffed him to some degree, and while he's not the one directly making those calls, there's no doubt he has plenty of influence.

 

Vargas, who could easily be filling that fifth spot instead of Suzuki and that DH role instead of Escobar and Eduardo Nunez, was sent down in mid-May even though he was hitting .366 on the month, and he's been left in Triple-A even though he's hitting .349 with a 1045 OPS there since being demoted.

 

Apparently the Twins want Vargas to work on his pitch recognition, and that would be all well and good under past circumstances, but this team is actually in a race. He's blatantly a better hitter than most guys on the major league roster.

 

Between the Vargas situation, leaving Aaron Hicks in the minors for six weeks, keeping Josmil Pinto buried, and now sending Oswaldo Arcia to Triple-A off the DL (though that move is more defensible), there's an ongoing trend of eschewing plainly more capable youngsters for veteran mediocrity. I've gotta say, I didn't expect that from Molitor, a guy who's spent the last decade working with Twins minor leaguers.

 

The Elephant in the Room

 

It's an uncomfortable subject to broach, especially for someone who has spent many years defending the guy against unfair critiques, but... at what point does Joe Mauer slide down in the lineup?

 

Blasting Mauer for his lack of power was rather ludicrous when he was winning batting titles and getting on base 40 percent of the time -- particularly when he was doing so at catcher -- but these days Mauer is simply a bad hitter. His power has gone from limited to essentially non-existent. Only nine qualified major leaguers have fewer home runs than Mauer's five since the start of last year, and they all play much more valuable defensive positions.

 

Mauer ranks 21st out of 22 MLB first basemen in OPS. He never homers and is barely a threat to hit a double. His once elite plate discipline no longer stands out. His production with runners in scoring position is the only thing that has kept him from being a complete liability to the lineup, but it's hard to imagine that disparity sustaining.

 

Removing Mauer from his customary station in the three-hole might be the hardest and most uncomfortable adjustment that Molitor needs to make, but it will be necessitated if things continue as they are.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

The Mauer thing is really going to cost this club in the coming years, unless they are much braver than I expect them to be.

 

Of all the things you list, the Escobar one is the one I get the least. He has zero track record to rely on, to think he should be an everyday player. I really struggle to understand this one.

 

Clearly I agree on the preference for veterans, just look at the bullpen.....which you didn't even mention (since it isn't clear if that is Molitor or Ryan, probably).

[gocgo]

It's not that I disagree with removing Mauer from the 3 hole, but who are you going to put there?

[Seth Stohs]

I agree with most of this, with one exception:

 

 

Between the Vargas situation, leaving Aaron Hicks in the minors for six weeks, keeping Josmil Pinto buried, and now sending Oswaldo Arcia to Triple-A off the DL (though that move is more defensible), there's an ongoing trend of eschewing plainly more capable youngsters for veteran mediocrity.

 

I think Vargas should be up, but I thought Hicks was in the minors no more than a week or two too long, so that's not a big deal. Pinto has done nothing this year to show that he's improved and may be a minimal improvement over Herrmann as the backup, but not much. And, yeah, Arcia should absolutely be in the minor leagues. He is a mess.

 

Other than that - which I don't even disagree with vehemently - I agree with the other things. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

It's not that I disagree with removing Mauer from the 3 hole, but who are you going to put there?

 

Plouffe, Dozier, Hunter. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Clearly I agree on the preference for veterans, just look at the bullpen.....which you didn't even mention (since it isn't clear if that is Molitor or Ryan, probably).

 

In spring, and with the roster decisions early, I really felt that Terry Ryan was more in control than he has been, and I think that remains the case. But I obviously don't know.

[toosweet64]

Agree on all points. I think management would like to turn a blind eye to the Mauer stuff and probably hopes the fans do too. But that's potentially a giant problem moving forward. I was hoping he could be the Todd Helton for the Twins, but he's not even hitting for average now.  Yikes. 

 

Agree on Escobar.  He's been given 2 months now and he's regressed back to his norm.  Time to let Rosario continue to run with left field. 

 

The other dilemma that I would raise is this: How much more leash to they give Santana?  At what point do they consider giving Jorge Polanco a chance? I realize that they think Polanco's range isn't as good but his overall defense isn't that much worse.

[gocgo]

 

Plouffe, Dozier, Hunter. 

Dozier is great at leadoff.  I wouldn't mess with that.  If Hunter is your 3, they who is your 2?  Plouffe is your cleanup and I don't see any other candidates for that.  

[gocgo]

Getting someone up with some pop would certainly allow for Plouffe to be moved to 3, but until that happens,  the options for significant lineup changes are pretty limited.

[sdtwins37]

 

Plouffe, Dozier, Hunter. 

Dozier needs at least on hitter in front of him....right?

1. Hicks/Rosario

2. Dozier

3. Hunter

4. Plouffe

5. Vargas

6. Mauer

7. Suzuki

8. Santana

9. Hicks/Rosario

 

Mauer could bat as low as 7th, but this will probably never happen. Hesitant with the Hicks/Rosario portion of this. Hicks has started to walk a bit and seems to be getting on more consistently OBP is 348 over his last 7 games.

 

[2wins87]

I've been feeling that they should send Santana down and bring up Vargas for a little while now.

 

I do think Escobar is a better hitter than Santana, at least right now.  I don't expect him to repeat last year but I do expect him to hit better than he has so far.  And UZR actually likes his defense at short.  We saw him make a bad error yesterday, but Santana hasn't been great either.  Santana's been better fundamentally lately but he doesn't seem to have the best range.  I don't think Escobar/Nunez would be much worse overall, and if Vargas has figured something out in his time at AAA having a legit bat at DH would be a lot of help right now.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Apparently the Twins want Vargas to work on his pitch recognition, and that would be all well and good under past circumstances, but this team is actually in a race.

 

Yup. Right there. Exactly.

 

As for Mauer, I wonder if it makes sense at some point, possibly sooner rather than later, for him to stop trying to pull the ball so much. It was certainly worth a shot, but right now the difference between Mauer as a .675 OPS hitter and a .750 OPS hitter is a big one that could really help this team.

[Brandon]

If Mauer's OBP is .330 or better there is your number 2 hitter  he can handle that spot in the lineup.  I do think Vargas deserves another chance and the club should have kept him up in Minnesota.  They did get the OF situated properly for now so I am not going to quibble out there.  They do need to do something with Stauffer though.  I can see a trip to AAA for him if not released.  Deunsing I can see getting a longer leash through June into July cause he has been here 6 seasons now.

 

I do think Santana should have been moved to the OF.  with the way he is going at SS that might be where he needs to be.

 

At the end of the day these are not big issues leaving a declining hitter in a run producers spot, leaving your number 5 hitter n AAA for a month, and keeping a guy as the 8th man in the pen an extra week or 2 for an extra appearance or 2 to show anything will not hurt the team too much provided the extra loss or two these cause the momentum to change to a loosing streak. 

 

Right now the offense needs a jolt so something should be done on that front. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

In spring, and with the roster decisions early, I really felt that Terry Ryan was more in control than he has been, and I think that remains the case. But I obviously don't know.

 

I agree that is likely, Seth. Which is why I think it is reasonable to exclude it from the Molitor list.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

For me I see Molitor using the middle of the lineup on hitters that take quality at bats and put the ball in play.

 

I am sure he would be happy to slot a power bat like Vargas or Arcia - but until the club is convinced that they can make more consistent contact, I have no problem going this route.

 

While the numbers are not there - I think opposing teams see Mauer as the one proven and quality hitter in that lineup.   As a result, I think where he sits in the lineup impacts the way teams pitch to Hunter before him and Plouffe after.   If Plouffe can continue to put together at bats like he did in the 9th yesterday, Joe is going to get better opportunities.  Obviously he needs to deliver.  

 

Vargas may be ready to for another shot - but I have little problem with Molitor is doing given the pieces he has.  

 

 

[drjim]

I would say the first and third points are basically the same, and as you point out, probably beyond his control at the moment.

 

The second point already saw an adjustment yesterday, and probably will going forward. Especially if they address point one and three.

 

For Mauer, I think it is going to take a month or two more of really poor hitting to move him from his spot.

 

When they finally call up one of the three young hitters three of your four concerns will be addressed.

[Minniman]

 

If Mauer's OBP is .330 or better there is your number 2 hitter  he can handle that spot in the lineup.

 

I have been stating for a few years that that Mauer should bat second. Without power, he should not bat third or cleanup.

[curt1965]

Dozier

Hunter

Rosario

Plouffe

Vargas

Suzuki

Maurer

Hicks

Santana

 

Rosario has proven, for far, to be a great hitter with runners on. Give him a chance at 3- he offers more than Joe does right now. Problem with this lineup, Vargas needs to be up for it to work!

[SwainZag]

 

Dozier
Hunter
Rosario
Plouffe
Vargas
Suzuki
Maurer
Hicks
Santana

Rosario has proven, for far, to be a great hitter with runners on. Give him a chance at 3- he offers more than Joe does right now. Problem with this lineup, Vargas needs to be up for it to work!

 

Mauer has also hit off the charts with runners on, and he doesn't strike out nearly 35% of the time, not to mention Rosario's OBP of less than .300 should be no where near the top of the lineup right now.

[Myro]

At what point do the Twins take a page from Tampa Bay's former playbook and sell high?  A Plouffe trade would clear some cap space (this year and next with arbitration looming again) as well as provide great structure and a winning team to develop Sano with.  I think the same is true for Buxton and moving on from Hicks.  Hicks is not a major league hitter and no longer a premier prospect.  Time to be bold and take a risk even while winning.  Time to stop 'wasting bullets' in the minors in the name of development.  Premier prospects are meant to perform at the highest level under the brightest lights.  There has never been a more conducive environment to do that than right now for the Twins.

[DaveW]

Trading Plouffe and hicks right now would be a monumental mistake. Plouffes "salary" hit is a complete non factor, you aren't going to find anything close to that value on the open market.

[DaveW]

As long as mauer is hitting very well with runners on I would keep him in the #3 spot, he is just in a slump right now with the bases empty. He will snap out of it.

[dxpavelka]

 

Plouffe, Dozier, Hunter. 

Which still leaves a gaping hole in the top 4 if you move Mauer down to the lower half.  I may be in the minority but I'm a huge fan of both Hicks & Rosario but neither should be in the top 4 of a contending big league team at this point in their careers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

As long as mauer is hitting very well with runners on I would keep him in the #3 spot, he is just in a slump right now with the bases empty. He will snap out of it.

 

How long does something last before it is a trend-----it's over a year now? Also, the hitters after him can't drive him in if he's not base. You need to look at both sides of that run producing equation, imo.

[jharaldson]

I would have a hard time thinking anyone saw how bad Mauer is this year coming.  I was down on Mauer this year but saw a .730-.790 OPS as likely, certainly not in the .600's.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/16186-the-elephant-in-the-room-joe-mauer/?p=297530

 

I think it is important to acknowledge that he is bad now.  There was a lot of hope that with an easier position he might keep his strong 2013 going and maybe improve.  Aaron Gleeman even went so far as to declare this:

 

 

Mauer will clearly be a top-ten first baseman and could easily move into the top five without the physical demands of catching.

 

http://aarongleeman.com/2013/11/12/concussion-forces-joe-mauer-to-switch-from-catcher-to-first-base/

 

Let's accept this is becoming less likely to happen and emphasize what he can do.  Many posters have pointed out that while not at levels he has put up in the past his OBP is still one of the better on the team so move him to the 2 hole like many have suggested.  When some of our young guys come up (Sano, Vargas, ect....) and if they perform we should consider putting in a 1B platoon so Mauer can avoid tough lefties.  Just some thoughts.

[Shane Wahl]

If the Twins aren't going to do the right things and call up Vargas, Arcia, and Pinto (one reliever, Santana, Herrmann/Nunez), then I would consider Dozier-Mauer-Plouffe-Hunter-Rosario-Hicks-Suzuki-Nunez (see how the bat holds up for a bit)-Santana/Escobar. Mauer's OBP is still ok for now and I cannot imagine any way that it remains below .350 as the season goes on. I think .320 is the low point right now. But his lack of slugging forces him either at the 2 or 6 spot.

[DaveW]

How long does something last before it is a trend-----it's over a year now? Also, the hitters after him can't drive him in if he's not base. You need to look at both sides of that run producing equation, imo.

3rd on the team in runs. Also the guy hitting two behind him has been Suzuki most of the year...not exactly an RBI machine himsef.

 

Mauers numbers were fine until the last 8-10 games or so where he has been in a big time slump.

[Hrbowski]

I think that this article was a bit rediculous. Molitor is going with his best options, and it is working, so I don't see why you called the article "When Will Molitor Start Making Adjustments?" He has made his adjustments, moving Hunter out of the cleanup spot, moving Santana out of the leadoff spot etc.

 

Eduardo Escobar is a quality hitter, he has proven himself that he deserves to be in the lineup everyday, plus he is better than any of Molitor's other options.

 

Vargas was not hitting for power, and Suzuki was once again Molitor's best option, unless you want to put Eduardo Escobar there, or you could call Eric Fryer, who is doing way better than Pinto, and make Fryer the everyday catcher, but I don't think you want that.

 

Josmil Pinto is hitting .247 at AAA, and his power has not been above average, plus Hicks did not deserve to make the opening day roster, hence him staying in the minors for six weeks.

 

And Molitor is once again going with his best option in batting Mauer 3rd, and just to let you know, first base is just as valuable a position as shortstop, as the first baseman can save the other infielders of an average of 5 errors a year, and when you start stereotyping how someone should hit because what position they play is rediculous also, look at Joe Maddon, he was hitting his catcher leadoff for awhile, and it worked, when you start expecting someone to hit 30 home runs a year because of a position switch once again you are being rediculous.

 

I thought that you were giving Molitor criticism for things that are out of his control, and that you were being unfair to a lot of people.

[Dantes929]

I still believe Mauer will get it going at some point.    Escobar's playing time this year was earned last year just like Santana but that leeway should come to an end.  Escobar appears to be over swinging.    As always people want Mauer moved down in the order without any really good options offered up.   Take a look at Baseball Ref and look at the OBP and tell me Mauer isn't the best option.    The only guys ahead of him are also in the top 4.     Mauer will get better but even if he doesn't someone else needs to improve to replace him.  Free Polanco and it might fix a few things.

[DaveW]

I would disagree that Escobar is a quality hitter and NEEDS to be in the lineup. IMO he is a decent util guy and a decent stop gap at SS but a terrible option in LF/DH