Trevor May and the Walkaphobia

[nicksaviking]

I know it's not news as most people have noticed, but (knock one wood) Trevor May is not walking guys.  His control was supposed to be his big, glaring, He'll-Have-To-Move-To-The-Bullpen bugaboo.

 

Obviously things can change, but his walk rate does not look like it's going to be half the issue that was advertised.  I think this shows that it is more than possible that these guys can work out their kinks at the MLB level, particularly if the organization's best pitching coach is sitting in the dugout next to you.

[drjim]

Or maybe the extended time they left in AAA last year is the reason he is now able to better control his walks and be successful.

[JB_Iowa]

Or maybe the extended time they left in AAA last year is the reason he is now able to better control his walks and be successful.

 

Or maybe it's his new dedication to meditation.

 

He's been fun to watch. Not just less walks but more strike outs.

[Seth Stohs]

I think I would argue that his control was worked on and figured out in the minor leagues.

 

By year, his BB/9

 

2008 - 5.2

2009 - 5.0

2010 - 5.4

2011 - 4.0

2012 (AA) - 4.7

2013 (AA NB) - 4.0

2014 (AAA Roch) - 3.6

 

he's continued to improve this season, but that started with his trade to the Twins and work in the minor leagues. 

[Craig Arko]

Now let's see it happen for Meyer.

[nicksaviking]

Or maybe the extended time they left in AAA last year is the reason he is now able to better control his walks and be successful.

But doesn't his continued improvement at the MLB level show he could have learned the same things at the highest level?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Or maybe the extended time they left in AAA last year is the reason he is now able to better control his walks and be successful.

Well, his improved control was pretty constant from the beginning of the 2014 AAA season, and he still had to make some big adjustments when he came to MLB. We'll never know either way, but I think he would have been just fine if his 2014 call-up had come a month or two earlier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Or maybe the extended time they left in AAA last year is the reason he is now able to better control his walks and be successful.

Or, more likely, it's six of one, half dozen of the other. May started showing improved control during his last few starts last September. As Seth pointed out, he steadily improved his control in the minors as well.

 

Now he's taking another step this season. IMO, this is probably just part of the maturation process and the result of working hard at one particular skill over several years.

[drjim]

 

But doesn't his continued improvement at the MLB level show he could have learned the same things at the highest level?

 

Maybe, maybe not. Isn't the argument generally that bigs are about results, minors are about process. When in the bigs, pitchers will be less hesitant to work on things, pitch their lesser offerings, challenge in the zone if they don't have confidence in their stuff, etc.

 

His injury last year probably delayed his promotion as much as anything.

[drjim]

 

Or, more likely, it's six of one, half dozen of the other. May started showing improved control during his last few starts last September. As Seth pointed out, he steadily improved his control in the minors as well.

Now he's taking another step this season. IMO, this is probably just part of the maturation process and the result of working hard at one particular skill over several years.

 

Agree that it is all part of a maturation process.

 

I wasn't 100% serious with my response, just showing that it could mean multiple things. The best part is that you can have whatever conclusion you want - with your preformed opinion of the front office likely being the leading indicator.

 

The main takeaway is that it looks like May is now a legitimate middle of the rotation guy under team control for many years. That's a good thing.

[nytwinsfan]

Just realized Trevor May's FIP is 2.80 and WAR according to Fangraphs is 1.6. Wowzers. Yes please.

[nicksaviking]

 

Maybe, maybe not. Isn't the argument generally that bigs are about results, minors are about process. When in the bigs, pitchers will be less hesitant to work on things, pitch their lesser offerings, challenge in the zone if they don't have confidence in their stuff, etc.

 

His injury last year probably delayed his promotion as much as anything.

 

I can understand not calling up youngsters to work out issues at the MLB level if it might cost the team important wins.  This year there is good reason not to just that.  I'd say years past would have been a great opportunity to get young guys up and running and as close to their competitive best for when the actual meaningful games began.

[JB_Iowa]

Ma

 

Well, his improved control was pretty constant from the beginning of the 2014 AAA season, and he still had to make some big adjustments when he came to MLB. We'll never know either way, but I think he would have been just fine if his 2014 call-up had come a month or two earlier.

 

Not disagreeing but maybe part of his improvement is clicking with what Neil Allen preaches.

 

Too many variables to know for sure.

[Dantes929]

May was extremely good in the minors last year before hurting his calf later in the season.   He could have been called up right before the injury and I think he would have been fine.   No way to know for sure but I am guessing if he had been called up before last year when his walks rates and ERA in the minors were high he would have been a mess in the majors.   IMO he and Meyer are apples and oranges.    Saying May improved his control in the majors is first of all misleading but then to extrapolate and say since Meyer is also struggling with control promoting him will cure it is very shaky logic.  (post hoc ergo propter hoc?)

May earned his promotion with a sub 3 ERA last season.   I thought Meyer earned a late call up as well but certainly has not earned it since.    I have no problem with promotions based on merit.   A walk per inning in the minors is not a result of working on other pitches.   It is just having really bad control.   May's kinks were not worked out at the major league level, but rather as pointed out a long and steady improvement at the lower levels. 

[Danchat]

 

Just realized Trevor May's FIP is 2.80 and WAR according to Fangraphs is 1.6. Wowzers. Yes please.

May is doing much better than his ERA looks (4.45, was above 5.00 before yesterday's game).

If May gets bounced out of the rotation when Ervin Santana returns, I'm going to be very ticked off. Pelfrey and Gibson's ERAs are looking really good, but May's FIP is much better.

[nater79a]

 

Or, more likely, it's six of one, half dozen of the other. May started showing improved control during his last few starts last September. As Seth pointed out, he steadily improved his control in the minors as well.

Now he's taking another step this season. IMO, this is probably just part of the maturation process and the result of working hard at one particular skill over several years.

 

Yeah, I think a bit of both.  I would throw out his first 2-3 starts last August... I'm sure he was a bundle of nerves pitching in the big leagues for the first time. But from the end of August through September he improved his control during each successive outing. 

 

To be honest, I was more worried about him pitching out of the stretch with runners on base.

[zchrz]

Its awesome how quickly he harnessed his control issues, and as his FIP suggests hes been very good this year despite a high babip and ERA.  I think the next big step for him is to gain more command of his pitches.  He throws 10-20 waste pitches a start still, things like a curveball that bounces 2 feet in front of the plate to the 9th hitter who has a .190 avg, or grooved meatball when he is in control of the at bat.  Once he cuts that down he has the stuff to be a legit middle of the rotation pitcher and work past the 7th inning.    

[twinsnorth49]

So there's hope for Meyer then.......right?

[drjim]

 

May is doing much better than his ERA looks (4.45, was above 5.00 before yesterday's game).

If May gets bounced out of the rotation when Ervin Santana returns, I'm going to be very ticked off. Pelfrey and Gibson's ERAs are looking really good, but May's FIP is much better.

 

Again they didn't bounce May for Milone earlier in the season even though May wasn't especially sharp early in the year. Now that he is pitching even better it will be that much more unlikely.

[nicksaviking]

 

  No way to know for sure but I am guessing if he had been called up before last year when his walks rates and ERA in the minors were high he would have been a mess in the majors.  

 

May was a mess last year when he got called up anyway. 

 

My feeling has been that for the most part, rookies are going to struggle upon a callup to the majors and it's largely unavoidalbe no matter how much prep they get down on the farm.  If your team stinks, let them struggle when the games don't matter.

[gunnarthor]

May credited Rick Anderson with calming him down and helping him fix the walking issues late last season. 

 

I think most of the credit should go to May - he knew he had an issue, he worked hard to fix it and now he looks like a solid middle of the rotation starter.

[Dantes929]

 

May was a mess last year when he got called up anyway. 

 

My feeling has been that for the most part, rookies are going to struggle upon a callup to the majors and it's largely unavoidalbe no matter how much prep they get down on the farm.  If your team stinks, let them struggle when the games don't matter.

Different kind of mess.    He was just a couple starts back from a month long injury when promoted and was obviously very nervous.   I had a lot of faith in him due to a   4 month stretch of very good pitching and the horrible start followed by better outings did nothing to shake that faith.    He was my pick to click this year    If he had that performance preceded by the 6.49 minor league ERA that Meyer currently sports there would have been no reason to have faith in him in the first place.     As I have said before Meyer does not need  season of May like dominance for me to believe he might be ready. but he does need a few good games.    Minor league performance is still the best indicator of major league readiness, IMO.

[jharaldson]

One stat I found was that if you believe in WAR May has been worth 1.7 WAR and Revere has been worth 3.3 since the trade.  It looks like if May keeps it up that he will catch up within a year or so.  This is looking more and more like a win for Ryan.

[laloesch]

Meyer is a mess.  Guy has ZERO control.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not sure what that has to do with May.  They weren't even acquired in the same trade.