Article: Twins Draft Preview: Alex Bregman

[Nick Nelson]

There are three shortstops drawing tremendous buzz leading up to this year's MLB draft, and all three are likely to be taken within the top ten picks. Vanderbilt's Dansby Swanson is widely viewed as the favorite for No. 1. High schooler Brendan Rodgers and Louisiana State's Alex Bregman could potentially be taken with the following two picks (Baseball America's latest mock has all three going in the top four), but either could also fall to the Twins at No. 6.

 

Today, we'll take an in-depth look at Bregman, who some believe to be the best all-around talent in this class.Who Is This Guy?

 

Generously listed at 6'0" and 185 lbs, Bregman is a diminutive specimen who often draws comparisons to Dustin Pedroia as an undersized middle infielder who overcomes his physical disadvantages with tremendous work ethic and technique.

 

The New Mexico native was viewed as a likely first-round pick coming out of high school, but he broke a finger while fielding grounders in pregame warm-ups during his senior year, and the injury caused his stock to plummet. Bregman ended up being drafted by the Red Sox in the 29th round of the 2012 draft, but elected to head to college rather than signing.

 

Good call.

 

Three years later, he's a projected top five draft pick. Bregman has put up monster numbers in his three seasons at LSU, hitting .336/.410/.518 in 191 games. He has solid pop for a guy his size, but what really stands out is his ability to control the strike zone; in his collegiate career, he has drawn 87 walks while fanning only 66 times.

 

The biggest question is whether Bregman will stick at shortstop in the pros. Most scouts seem to believe he has a good chance to do so.

 

Back in April, Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs highlighted four different stand-out plays that the shortstop made in one game against Auburn. This one, in particular, seems to demonstrate that he has the athleticism and arm to play the position.

 

Why the Twins Will Pick Him

 

Shortstop is a tough spot to lock down, as the Twins are well aware. They've struggled to find a permanent answer, and while they probably felt decent about the position coming into 2015, neither Danny Santana nor Eduardo Escobar has done much this year to inspire confidence.

 

If you have the chance to get a guy who you think can play shortstop in the majors and hit, you've got to get him. That's why the Twins selected Nick Gordon last year, and that's why they will likely take Bregman if he's available to them. Outside of pitcher and catcher, there's no position where it's more beneficial to have strong minor-league depth.

 

Bregman has that gritty, "baseball rat" type reputation that the Twins tend to gravitate toward, and his production in college has been everything you'd want to see in a top pick. He was actually named first-team All-SEC shortstop over Vanderbilt's Swanson, who is likely to go first overall.

 

The Twins just spent the fifth pick on a shortstop last year, but I doubt that would impede them from taking another one this time around. Gordon is currently hitting just .230/.303/.279 at Cedar Rapids, and while that hardly dooms the 19-year-old's long-term outlook, it does indicate that he might need a while to develop.

 

Bregman's bat is more advanced and he would move ahead of Gordon in line with a chance to make a faster impact in the majors. Consider that Trea Turner, the first college shortstop taken in last year's draft (14th overall to the Padres) is already tearing up Double-A.

 

Why the Twins Won't Pick Him

 

Bregman is not without his question marks.

 

Some believe he might follow in Pedroia's footsteps and wind up moving to second base, which would diminish his value to the Twins quite a bit.

 

There's also no assurance that his bat will make the same kind of impact in pro ball, particularly in the power department. While clearly a superior prospect, Bregman does have a somewhat similar profile to Levi Michael, the smallish college middle infielder drafted by the Twins out of North Carolina in 2011's first-round. Michael's moderate power all but disappeared once he made the switch to wood bats.

 

With all that being said, if he does fall to them at No. 6, I find it quite unlikely that the Twins would pass up Bregman unless they don't believe in his glove. I've seen very few recent mocks that have him falling out of the top five. Jeremy has him going to Houston one pick before Minnesota.

 

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[tobi0040]

It sounds like the Twins love the guy and will take him if he is there. If we do I sure hope he sticks at SS.  He provides more value to the Twins there and would have more trade value as well.

[markos]

 

There's also no assurance that his bat will make the same kind of impact in pro ball, particularly in the power department. While clearly a superior prospect, Bregman does have a somewhat similar profile to Levi Michael, the smallish college middle infielder drafted by the Twins out of North Carolina in 2011's first-round. Michael's moderate power all but disappeared once he made the switch to wood bats.

I would argue that Bregman's power baseline is significantly higher than Michael's. Michael lost a lot of his power when the NCAA switched to composite bats between his sophomore and junior seasons. His junior year he only had a .455 SLG, .150 ISO and only 4 HRs. Bregman, in contrast, currently has a .548 SLG, .230 ISO and 9 HRs. Even though Bregman will probably lose some power transitioning to pro ball, his current baseline is high enough that he should remain effective (especially as a middle infielder) with even a moderate drop in power.

[Dman]

So it looks like the three players that most likely could fall to the Twins would be one of Bregman, Tate or Tucker depending on what Texas and Houston do.  I guess Cameron and Allard would likely be there as well and I don't know how the Twins feel about those two guys.  I would be fine with any one of those guys at this point.

 

Kind of was hoping for pitching (preferably lefty) out of that spot since we don't have an early second round pick, but the best pitchers right now appear to be converted relievers.  Seems like that might be a little bit more of a risky pick that high up on the board.

 

Thing is the Twins are going to get somebody good no matter what just a questions of who that will be at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think he makes it to them.

 

If he does, they should take him, and put him in Ft. Meyers.

[rghrbek]

 

I don't think he makes it to them.

 

If he does, they should take him, and put him in Ft. Meyers.

Agreed, you cannot have enough good up the middle prospects.  With Santana somewhat predictably crashing to earth, and Escobar struggling, we need to know we have some depth at SS.  Polonco is not far away, but I'm not sure he will stick at short.

[tobi0040]

Jeremy,

 

If you don't have an upcoming article doing this, would you mind constructing where you think the Twins big board sits, through six picks?

 

I would find that interesting.  I get the sense the three SS are all in there

[ThejacKmp]

This may be a super stupid question that I could just Google but here goes:

 

I've been reading that this is a very weak draft and next year is a very strong draft.  Is there anything set up to prevent the Twins from taking a player and offering him a contract they know he won't sign so that they can keep a high pick in next year's much more lauded draft?  I know you delay a year but it seems like a great way to game the system.  Plus you could spend that first slot money on players later in the draft, luring some later round guys away from college.

 

Thoughts?

[Mike Sixel]

 

This may be a super stupid question that I could just Google but here goes:

 

I've been reading that this is a very weak draft and next year is a very strong draft.  Is there anything set up to prevent the Twins from taking a player and offering him a contract they know he won't sign so that they can keep a high pick in next year's much more lauded draft?  I know you delay a year but it seems like a great way to game the system.  Plus you could spend that first slot money on players later in the draft, luring some later round guys away from college.

 

Thoughts?

 

It is a terrible, terrible strategy. Not one person that used to work in a FO that is now on Fangraphs or ESPN or mlb.com or anywhere says anything but how bad of an idea this is. What if all those guys next year need TJ, and the draft isn't strong? How do you keep the pipeline of elite talent full, if you delay a year?

[tobi0040]

 

This may be a super stupid question that I could just Google but here goes:

 

I've been reading that this is a very weak draft and next year is a very strong draft.  Is there anything set up to prevent the Twins from taking a player and offering him a contract they know he won't sign so that they can keep a high pick in next year's much more lauded draft?  I know you delay a year but it seems like a great way to game the system.  Plus you could spend that first slot money on players later in the draft, luring some later round guys away from college.

 

Thoughts?

 

In theory no.  But if MLB thought this is what you were doing they could probably penalize you and take the pick.

 

Not to mention reputational issues

[drjim]

 

This may be a super stupid question that I could just Google but here goes:

 

I've been reading that this is a very weak draft and next year is a very strong draft.  Is there anything set up to prevent the Twins from taking a player and offering him a contract they know he won't sign so that they can keep a high pick in next year's much more lauded draft?  I know you delay a year but it seems like a great way to game the system.  Plus you could spend that first slot money on players later in the draft, luring some later round guys away from college.

 

Thoughts?

 

Not smart to do intentionally for a variety of reasons, but what I have read is that it does give the team a stronger hand to negotiate from. And it makes sense.

 

Teams will generally have an agreed upon range that they agree to with perspective picks in the slots. Sometimes the player will demand more money after the draft and put a team in a bind, but in that situation this year the team might just not give him and not sign them with the promise of a pick next year.

[tobi0040]

 

Not smart to do intentionally for a variety of reasons, but what I have read is that it does give the team a stronger hand to negotiate from. And it makes sense.

 

Teams will generally have an agreed upon range that they agree to with perspective picks in the slots. Sometimes the player will demand more money after the draft and put a team in a bind, but in that situation this year the team might just not give him and not sign them with the promise of a pick next year.

 

I would also have a tough time from a human perspective.  Draft a high school kid who now has to go to college for three years or play with some independent team for a year. Or a guy that gets hurt the next year.

[drjim]

 

I would also have a tough time from a human perspective.  Draft a high school kid who now has to go to college for three years or play with some independent team for a year. Or a guy that gets hurt the next year.

 

Absolutely. And it would potentially poison relationships with agents.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Absolutely. And it would potentially poison relationships with agents.

Yep. All things considered, this would be the worst.

 

The other part to consider, no one is guaranteed a job a month from now, let alone 12.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy,

 

If you don't have an upcoming article doing this, would you mind constructing where you think the Twins big board sits, through six picks?

 

I would find that interesting.  I get the sense the three SS are all in there

 

Good question.

 

I've posted on Twitter... but it's been awhile.

 

I'm assuming Swanson and Rodgers are #1 and #2, though it's irrelevant. 

 

The way I'd stack the board right now are Bregman, Tate, Allard, Tucker. I think, ideally, Cameron would be ahead of Tucker, but he drops because of his price tag.

 

I also think Allard is a question mark because of his arm. Depends what the loudest voices in the room think. We know what TR thinks. 

 

At any rate, the Twins are going to get a guy they really like at #6.

[Mike Sixel]

we know what TR wants to do?

[Seth Stohs]

 

we know what TR wants to do?

 

I'm guessing he will have little to do with the final decision. He will tell Deron Johnson to take the Best Player Available and he'll let them make the decisions. As he should.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm guessing he will have little to do with the final decision. He will tell Deron Johnson to take the Best Player Available and he'll let them make the decisions. As he should.

 

Jeremy typed this:

 

"We know what TR thinks."

 

I was asking about that, nothing more or less.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Jeremy typed this:

 

"We know what TR thinks."

 

I was asking about that, nothing more or less.

 

My bad... I'll be quiet and let Jeremy respond. Sorry!

[Hrbowski]

 

This may be a super stupid question that I could just Google but here goes:

 

I've been reading that this is a very weak draft and next year is a very strong draft.  Is there anything set up to prevent the Twins from taking a player and offering him a contract they know he won't sign so that they can keep a high pick in next year's much more lauded draft?  I know you delay a year but it seems like a great way to game the system.  Plus you could spend that first slot money on players later in the draft, luring some later round guys away from college.

 

Thoughts?

If you don't sign the first pick you loose the money that was alloted to you for that pick, plus next years draft isn't all that strong, according to some people, and who knows what injuries accur to make it weaker? It is a really poor strategy. And those player's agents also represent free agents etc. All you do is make people mad, and that won't help.

[CwK]

 

If you don't sign the first pick you loose the money that was alloted to you for that pick, plus next years draft isn't all that strong, according to some people, and who knows what injuries accur to make it weaker? It is a really poor strategy. And those player's agents also represent free agents etc. All you do is make people mad, and that won't help.

 

I thought next year's draft was supposed to be very strong? Kiley McDaniel has mentioned it's strength and someone (Law, maybe?) has went on record saying there are 10-15 draft ineligible guys that would be first round picks this year. I really wish I had a link to back up my claim. I'll look.

[drjim]

 

I thought next year's draft was supposed to be very strong? Kiley McDaniel has mentioned it's strength and someone (Law, maybe?) has went on record saying there are 10-15 draft ineligible guys that would be first round picks this year. I really wish I had a link to back up my claim. I'll look.

 

It is generally considered to be very strong, but as said injuries and poor performance can change that.

[Hrbowski]

 

I thought next year's draft was supposed to be very strong? Kiley McDaniel has mentioned it's strength and someone (Law, maybe?) has went on record saying there are 10-15 draft ineligible guys that would be first round picks this year. I really wish I had a link to back up my claim. I'll look.

That can change pretty quick, and if a team did that the good players won't be happy being drafted by you, and then you will be forced into drafting the Daniel Moskos of the draft.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

we know what TR wants to do?

 

We don't know what he wants to do. The reference was in regards to the question mark next to Allard's name. Is his health enough of a risk to not draft him? TR said earlier in the week (or during the weekend) that it wouldn't scare him off (or something to that effect).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You know how many times last year that I heard "next year's draft is going to be so much better than this one"? 

 

A lot.

 

You know what those people are saying now? "Last year's draft was better than this one."

[tobi0040]

 

Good question.

 

I've posted on Twitter... but it's been awhile.

 

I'm assuming Swanson and Rodgers are #1 and #2, though it's irrelevant. 

 

The way I'd stack the board right now are Bregman, Tate, Allard, Tucker. I think, ideally, Cameron would be ahead of Tucker, but he drops because of his price tag.

 

I also think Allard is a question mark because of his arm. Depends what the loudest voices in the room think. We know what TR thinks. 

 

At any rate, the Twins are going to get a guy they really like at #6.

 

Very interesting.  If that is our board, I would guess we get Allard or Tate.  Seems every year someone in the top five takes someone that nobody saw going there.  Like Schwarber. 

[shs_59]

the 2016 draft will be better than 08-09 -2010 and probably even 2005.

 

The 2016 draft will be somewhat loaded.

 

If Bregman Somehow falls to the Twins at 6 that is a dream scenrio if you ask me.

 

Hopefully someone picking at 3 or 4 takes Allard or Fulmer , and feels like they need a pitcher badly

 

then its all about the Astros taking Bregman at 5 or not, if they do We're not too happy, if they Don't We take him and RE-JOYCE

[CwK]

You know how many times last year that I heard "next year's draft is going to be so much better than this one"? 

 

A lot.

 

You know what those people are saying now? "Last year's draft was better than this one."

Probably because Aiken and Matuella were healthy. Which proves the point of Hrbowski.

[Bob Sacamento]

The 2015 draft is shaping up to be the worst since 2000 with quite a few injuried college arms, little HS pitching talent, and HS offensive bats are few and far between.  The only strong suit of the draft is an average crop of offensive college bats.

 

The closer and closer to the draft we get, the more and more likely Bregman is going to be gone before the Twins selection.

[ThejacKmp]

 

It is a terrible, terrible strategy. Not one person that used to work in a FO that is now on Fangraphs or ESPN or mlb.com or anywhere says anything but how bad of an idea this is. What if all those guys next year need TJ, and the draft isn't strong? How do you keep the pipeline of elite talent full, if you delay a year?

 

Just to play devil's advocate, if you know this is a weak draft and there's a chance that next year is a great draft, isn't taking the gamble potentially worth the risk?  I don't think this makes sense for the Twins since they're in the 6/7 hole but if you had the #1 pick and you knew that next year was a year with a couple of great prospects (let's say hitting since that's less likely to change) while you weren't excited about anyone this year, it seems like it might be worth a shot.

 

The reputational thing is a good point and the human factor is a great point too.  This is more in the land of make believe but I think it's an interesting idea.