Article: Twins Draft Preview: Kyle Tucker

[Parker Hageman]

As far as adding position players to their system, the Minnesota Twins could do a lot worse than high school outfielder Kyle Tucker. The six-foot-five outfielder from Hillsborough County outside of Tampa -- a sun-soaked and highly competitive baseball region -- has all the projectability in the world including an advanced approach at the plate. His plus-hit tool and ability to mash could see him become the next Twins’ first-round draft pick.

 

That is, unless someone else gets to him first.Who is this guy?

 

Tucker comes from a line with a baseball pedigree as his brother Preston was a standout at the University of Florida (where Kyle is currently committed) and has been called up to the Houston Astros this season. While Preston’s power earned him the nickname “Bamm-Bamm”, his younger brother Kyle has five inches on his older sibling and is said to be more athletic (able to play center field) with similar power projectability.

 

According to Perfect Game -- a well-respected amatuer scouting organization which holds showcases and invitationals to pit the nation’s best high school talent against one another -- Tucker’s power tool was rated as the fourth-best in the country. Meanwhile MLB.com said that Tucker has a smooth swing and lauded his “advanced approach at the plate” and Baseball America’s review said that the left-handed outfielder makes “consistent hard contact” with the majority of his power coming to his pull side.

 

http://i.imgur.com/9D6hFbk.gif

 

Tucker’s swing is smooth if slightly unorthodox. He lowers his hands (not unlike the Ted Williams method, for a mental comparison) which some evaluators question may cause issues against more professional grade pitching. Keep in mind, rarely is there a high school prospect who does not make some adjustments to his swing mechanics as he continues to face better competition.

 

http://i.imgur.com/je6UbkP.gif

 

“When he was a sophomore, they called him Ted Williams,” Tucker’s high school baseball coach Dennis Braun told USA Today. “Boy, there’s nowhere to go but down from that. They throw out so many names of I can’t keep track of them. All I know is Kyle, like his brother, can hit. You can’t teach putting the barrel on the ball and that’s the quality everybody is looking for.”

 

Tucker finished his senior year at Plant High School in Tampa with a .484 average and 10 home runs in 64 at-bats. He also added 25 walks to his stats. Often, elite high school hitters are not given many good pitches and Tucker’s reputation earned him a fair share of unintentional intentional walks. Some hitters try to expand the zone just to be able to swing the bat but Tucker stayed within himself -- a skill which cannot always be developed.

 

His fielding abilities are viewed as strong -- good instincts, routes in the outfield and a decent enough arm (he was the high school team’s closer). While he is playing center field now, his future will eventually find him in a corner outfield spot.

 

Why the Twins will pick him

 

Not long ago, the Twins front office confessed their love affair with left-handed bats. For a while they stockpiled this swing-side preference in the farm system, hoping to gain an advantage over the league’s pitching which has a right-handed tilt. Now the pipeline has a right-handed bat slant with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton aiming to be long-term lineup contributors, adding a left-handed power source like Tucker would be a nice complement to the offense for years to come.

 

In addition to the on-field abilities, Tucker reportedly has outstanding character traits that make teams swoon. Because of his academics and volunteer track record, coupled with his athletic achievements, he was selected as the Gatorade Florida Baseball Player of the Year.

 

In terms of talent, Tucker wouldn’t be a reach and would provide the Twins’ system with some needed left-handed power.

 

Why the Twins will not pick him

 

There’s a decent chance Tucker might not make it to the sixth slot in the draft. The Houston Astros, who have the fifth overall pick, also have Tucker’s older brother, Preston, in their system have kept a close eye on the younger Tucker who is considered to be more athletic than the one currently in an Astros uniform.

 

Outside of that, he is not a pitcher. The Twins have seen what happens when you fail to draft and develop starting pitching -- you either have to overpay for it on the free agent market or you get subpar performer who get shelled (or both). They have added depth over the last few drafts but because developing pitchers is a war of attrition it never hurts to have too much starting pitching.

 

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[jimbo92107]

It's a nice swing, a little like Adrian Gonzalez, tho he appears to be a little too eager to start his sprint to first, which makes it look like his sweep isn't covering the outer half. That would mean he'd flail at a lefty fading curve or a rightie change up outside. He'd have to learn to hang in there long enough to punch outside pitches the opposite way. Nothing wrong with a power pull lefty, but the first thing he'll see is everything on the outside edge of the plate.

[tobi0040]

I am   not saying he should be the pick, but the Twins will draft him if he is available.  Nice swing, high school, athletic, long, and bloodlines.

 

He has all the boxes checked.

 

[Parker Hageman]

It's a nice swing, a little like Adrian Gonzalez...

 

 

Gonzalez swing may not be a the accurate comp in this case. Gonzalez keeps his hands held high, has a significant leg kicks and covers the outer half of the zone better than almost anyone not named Joe Mauer.

 

http://i.imgur.com/EUMqgXO.gif

 

What I see is Tucker's swing comp closer to A-Gon's teammate Joc Pederson. Pederson remains upright like Tucker and has his hands on a low plane to begin his swing (Pederson's stays low while Tucker drops his). Pederson keeps his hands relatively still while Tucker keeps his moving up to and through the load process (which is fine). Ideally, Tucker would adopt the athletic leg kicks like Pederson and use that lower half better. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/FOG1GO0.gif

 

In the clip above, Tucker handled 94 up and away well. There will certainly be adjustments coming when he begins to face pitchers who can locate their secondary pitches better than the competition that he faced. 

 

 

[Willihammer]

I really like this kid but have a hard time with the corner outfield part. Is there any upside with the glove at all? Any chance he could stick in Center?

Edited June 2, 2015 by Willihammer

[tobi0040]

 

I really like this kid but have a hard time with the corner outfield part. Is there any upside with the glove at all? Any chance he could stick in Center?

 

I have a hard time with the importance of the corner OF spot as well.  I also see endless depth there in the system, made up of guys that are really young (21-24 primarily).  Buxton, Sano, Arcia, Rosario, Hicks, Kepler, Walker, and Harrison.  Most of the time an 18 year old should not factor into the current depth, but most of these guys are young and in the minors still.

 

If we think he is the best player in the draft, take him.  You can always theoretically trade him or other depth later.  But given the possibility that high ceiling starters like Tate and/or Jay may be available, I would have a tough time with this pick.

Edited June 2, 2015 by tobi0040

[Parker Hageman]

I really like this kid but have a hard time with the corner outfield part. Is there any upside with the glove at all? Any chance he could stick in Center?

 

 

In theory, Byron Buxton will be in center field for 10+ years if all goes right but Baseball America raved about Tucker's instincts and route running suggesting those two elements could keep him in center for a while. He's probably a more polished version of Max Kepler in that regard. 

 

[sane]

"Twins could do a lot worse than high school outfielder Kyle Tucker"....What a RINGING ENDORSEMENT!!! That sounds like a mother-in-law talking about her son-in-law. "My daughter could have done worse". (if she had married a serial killer)

[Parker Hageman]

"Twins could do a lot worse than high school outfielder Kyle Tucker"....What a RINGING ENDORSEMENT!!! That sounds like a mother-in-law talking about her son-in-law. "My daughter could have done worse". (if she had married a serial killer)

 

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/go-on.gif

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ok-then1.gif

 

[Hrbowski]

 

I really like this kid but have a hard time with the corner outfield part. Is there any upside with the glove at all? Any chance he could stick in Center?

Tucker is getting drafted because he can flat out hit, plus he has a great arm, so I think that right field would be his best fit, but he has good instincts, so the team that drafts him might want to try him in center.

[Dman]

I think Houston will grab him so I doubt the Twins will get him.  I think Houston wants to take position players high in the draft due to a higher success rate than pitching and I would bet they will go pitching through most of the next 8 or 9 rounds.

 

 I think they feel they got schooled by the Cubs when they took Prior over Bryant and or even last year when they took Aiken instead of a position player.  They had success when they took Correia so I think they are going to stay away from first round pitchers for a while.  You can still find good pitchers in later rounds and if they stock pile good position players they can trade for good pitchers as well.

 

I think the Twins might take the opposite approach this year and go pitching early but then switch to position players rounds 3 through 10 or at least pick more evenly than last years all pitchers rounds 2 through 8.  They seem stocked with hard throwing relievers right now but could use better hitters in the lower levels IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

ya, they need some hitters for sure in the lower levels. I don't get the whole "corner OF isn't important" thing, never have.

 

He can flat out hit. I'll take that over some projectable athlete that can't hit, and worry about LF/RF/1b/dh, whatever, later.

[Hrbowski]

 

I think Houston will grab him so I doubt the Twins will get him.  I think Houston wants to take position players high in the draft due to a higher success rate than pitching and I would bet they will go pitching through most of the next 8 or 9 rounds.

 

 I think they feel they got schooled by the Cubs when they took Prior over Bryant and or even last year when they took Aiken instead of a position player.  They had success when they took Correia so I think they are going to stay away from first round pitchers for a while.  You can still find good pitchers in later rounds and if they stock pile good position players they can trade for good pitchers as well.

 

I think the Twins might take the opposite approach this year and go pitching early but then switch to position players rounds 3 through 10 or at least pick more evenly than last years all pitchers rounds 2 through 8.  They seem stocked with hard throwing relievers right now but could use better hitters in the lower levels IMO.

The Astros didn't draft Mark Prior, that was the Cubs. The Astros took Mark Appel.

[Dman]

 

The Astros didn't draft Mark Prior, that was the Cubs. The Astros took Mark Appel.

Ooops brain block.  Yes Appel.

[nytwinsfan]

Woooh.   

 

 

Is this an attempt to gain leverage over Cameron, serious interest, or just due diligence? I mean, on paper Clark sounds similar to Cameron. I actually always wondered why Cameron was thought higher of, when Clark's speed and hit tool were ranked as high or higher by some.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Is this an attempt to gain leverage over Cameron, serious interest, or just due diligence? I mean, on paper Clark sounds similar to Cameron. I actually always wondered why Cameron was thought higher of, when Clark's speed and hit tool were ranked as high or higher by some.

The whole bloodline thing gives Cameron the nod plus he still has physical projectability while Clark is considered finished in that department.

[nytwinsfan]

Bob, agreed, but Clark also wouldn't ask for over-slot money, and I've read accounts that he has superb makeup and was the clubhouse leader on Team USA (something I could see the Twins taking into account).

 

Jeremy, do you think Clark would be willing to go $500 k to $1 million under slot?

 

I'd clearly prefer Tucker (or Tate or Jay) but if the three SS and Tucker are off the board, and the Twins are not sold on Tate and/or Jay, I'd honestly prefer Clark under-slot to Cameron over-slot. I'm probably in the minority there, but when I read about the players and their tools, I don't see why Cameron is worth the extra $1.5-$2 million that could be spent on higher upside picks at 73 and 80.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Bob, agreed, but Clark also wouldn't ask for over-slot money, and I've read accounts that he has superb makeup and was the clubhouse leader on Team USA (something I could see the Twins taking into account).

 

Jeremy, do you think Clark would be willing to go $500 k to $1 million under slot?

 

I'd clearly prefer Tucker (or Tate or Jay) but if the three SS and Tucker are off the board, and the Twins are not sold on Tate and/or Jay, I'd honestly prefer Clark under-slot to Cameron over-slot. I'm probably in the minority there, but when I read about the players and their tools, I don't see why Cameron is worth the extra $1.5-$2 million that could be spent on higher upside picks at 73 and 80.

Clark is considered at Top 10-15 talent, so drafting him at #7 wouldn't be a big stretch bargain.  The slot value at #6 is ~3.9M, there has been alot of talk of him going #12 to the Marlins which is a ~3M slot so maybe get Clark at 3.5M thus saving 400K.  You can then use that 400K and give pick #73   1.2M which is the money for early second round (pick 47) which is where their second round pick would have been.  Just a thought. 

 

Food for thought, the Cubs took Kyle Schwarber at #4 who was considered a late first round talent (mid at best), he signed for 3.1M (which was #9 pick money), slot was 4.6M, the Cubs used the 1.5M on several young HS pitchers who were considered unsignable late in the draft.

 

Last year's #6 pick Alex Jackson a highly touted HS talent signed for 4.2M which was .7M over slot money. Slot was 3.5M, this is what I can see Cameron and Boras try to do.

 

Then there is always the draft a senior college player high for ~50-100K and using that saving for another pick as well.

 

Hate to say it but the signing of Ervin Santana looks worse and worse as it cost the Twins not only their second round pick but also that slot money ~1.3M.

 

Below is the Twins' total slot money and per pick slot money.

Twins   ($7,388,700)

No.    Round    Slot value
6     1     3,889,500
73        B     839,700
80     3     754,000
110     4    517,900
140     5     387,700
170    6     290,300
200     7     217,400
230     8    175,400
260        9    163,800
290      10     153,000

Edited June 8, 2015 by Bob Sacamento