Punting DH

[stringer bell]

OK, since I know you've all been waiting for my opinion, here are several:  Usually 13 pitchers is too many.  It certainly was when the Twins put together five consecutive quality starts.  Right now, with Nolasco gimpy and the bullpen used for eight innings today, having that extra reliever is permissible, but only until deep starts and/or off days give the Twins a rested bullpen.

 

Tim Stauffer has a fairly decent resumé, but the results and everything I've seen indicate that he doesn't have the pitches to get hitters out.  He doesn't have velocity, movement or deception.  It looks like batting practice. 

 

Kennys Vargas would be a better alternative at DH than the Eduardos, but his numbers so far this year haven't earned him a major league spot to keep.  It is ironic that he had  good numbers for his last week or two and then he was sent down, but if he's not in the lineup almost every day, he isn't much of an asset.  I'd personally rather go with Pinto as the most frequent DH.  He could catch a game or two a week and in those occasions someone else (Hunter, Plouffe later Arcia) could DH.

[bird]

 

Vargas getting sent down after doing fairly well for 2 weeks straight is a bit odd.  I suspect there was something else going on there.  He's hitting well in AAA as well.  I'd like to see him, Arcia, or Pinto back up and hitting in the DH role soon.

 

 

In reading Molitor's comments about Vargas, I'm confident he strongly disagrees that Vargas was doing fairly well during those two weeks despite the numbers. Some like to mock Ryan when he refers to the desire for "consistency". In particular, there was a lot of criticism directed toward him about Meyer. But maybe he's trying to describe something here and the word consistency doesn't cover it.

 

Wouldn't we all like to see Vargas, Pinto, and Arcia up with the big club? My own sense is that there's probably things we aren't able to read between the lines for all three of these guys, and that each of hem has his marching orders about what they need to work on. None of them are doing anything at the moment in AAA to write home about. Vargas has maybe been a bit "inconsistent" from what I can see in the box scores.

 

 

[bird]

 

Does anyone have a theory on why the Twins are punting DH?

 

The word "punting" connotes giving up. Not only is this unfair, but don't you think it might be insulting?

[Brock Beauchamp]

With all the foot-dragging going on with Vargas and Pinto, it makes me wonder if this all about Arcia moving to the DH role so Molitor can keep Rosario in left. If that's the case, I'm pretty okay with it, provided Oswaldo returns to Minnesota relatively soon.

[gocgo]

What thinks of Arcia up for Stauffer AND Pinto up for Hermann?  You could then platoon the DH between Arcia and Pinto.  Arcia most of the time with righties and Pinto for the lefties.

[drjim]

 

Perhaps, but he seemed like he was turning it around posting a >.800 OPS in his appearances for 2 weeks prior to being sent down.

 

So he scatters some singles and pops some HRs against the Stauffer of other teams (when the lead was at least 8 runs and the two HRs added a combined 0 in WPA) and that's a turnaround? He barely walked and struck out a ton during that time. He does have talent but wasn't maximizing it, perfect guy to send back to AAA. I was glad they weren't fooled by some meaningless HRs and were actually proactive.

[by jiminy]

Would I rather watch Vargas or Pinto batting in the DH spot than Nunez or Escobar? Of course.

 

But I LOVE that Molitor and Ryan sent Vargas down to AAA!

 

So what if he had a hot few weeks? That is how you make decisions that set back a team AND harm a player's development. Like letting Gomez and Hicks skip AAA because they had a hot spring?

 

You have to think big picture, for all concerned. I don't know what went on with Vargas but I have a great deal of confidence they are doing the right thing, for the right reasons.

 

While they supported him in public, there were enough comments to suggest he just wasn't listening. They told the Strib more than once that he seemed to just try to launch bombs in batting practice instead of working on the skills that he needed to improve and develop.

 

His strike zone management had a ways to go, and he needed to set goals for himself besides hitting a home run every pitch. 

 

I don't care what he did the last two weeks. I care what he does the next several years. I care about him becoming the best player he can be.  I care about him learning that unless he works every day on improving every way he can, and listening to every word the coaches say, he doesn't belong in the big leagues. 

 

I love the guy but I don't think this demotion is a gesture of disrespect; I think it's a gesture of how much more they see in him than what he is now. 

 

If and when he comes back, I want to see him doing all the little things, not just closing his eyes and swinging for the fences on pitches 6 inches out of the strike zone. 

 

I think he will be back, and I think he'll be better. 

 

Would I personally bring up Pinto for a week or two to handle the DH spot till Arcia returns, so they stop DH'ing middle infielders?  Yeah, probably.  But that's because I don't know as much as they do! 

 

Man, I love being able to say that.  Feels so good to have people smarter than me in charge!

[drjim]

 

What thinks of Arcia up for Stauffer AND Pinto up for Hermann?  You could then platoon the DH between Arcia and Pinto.  Arcia most of the time with righties and Pinto for the lefties.

 

I would rather they (along with Vargas) play every day, whether AAA or the bigs. This might work later in the year.

 

And Arcia isn't ready yet.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So he scatters some singles and pops some HRs against the Stauffer of other teams (when the lead was at least 8 runs and the two HRs added a combined 0 in WPA) and that's a turnaround? He barely walked and struck out a ton during that time. He does have talent but wasn't maximizing it, perfect guy to send back to AAA. I was glad they weren't fooled by some meaningless HRs and were actually proactive.

 

And yet what he said they told him to go down and do was hit HRs.  

 

I think this is an overly harsh version of his May.  He had significantly cut his strikeouts down in those couple weeks and was making better contact.

 

And I would expect struggles - he skipped AAA and was due an adjustment period to major league pitching.  Sending him down in the middle of improved at-bats was the oddest thing about it.  Had they done it in April it would have made more sense IMO.

[DaveW]

What's going on is that Vargas struggles to hit major league pitching

except for those hot weeks immediately before he was sent down of course...oh and 2014 as well.

[gocgo]

 

I would rather they (along with Vargas) play every day, whether AAA or the bigs. This might work later in the year.

 

And Arcia isn't ready yet.

Yeah, I keep assuming that as soon as Arcia is ready, that Stauffer is gone and that is the only reason he is still around.

[DaveW]

And yet what he said they told him to go down and do was hit HRs.

 

I think this is an overly harsh version of his May. He had significantly cut his strikeouts down in those couple weeks and was making better contact.

 

And I would expect struggles - he skipped AAA and was due an adjustment period to major league pitching. Sending him down in the middle of improved at-bats was the oddest thing about it. Had they done it in April it would have made more sense IMO.

I have a gut feeling the demotion wasn't about performance and was something along the lines of maturing, attitude, or something else.

 

We are all frustrated that Escobar and Nunez are the DH, but I'm pretty positive that TR realizes that isn't ideal at this point either. Hopefully Vargas gets whatever fixed he needed too: whether performance wise or not

[james2334]

I think the issue here centers around Santana. The Twins like him and want to give him a chance to succeed, but they need a back up plan in case they need to send him down. Thus they are keeping Escober to take over shortstop and Nunez to take the utility role. Otherwise, why would you keep two utility infielders on a team where Plouffe, Mauer, and Dozier play everyday. They also need the fourth outfielder and back up catcher. They need 13 pitchers because they are carrying a rule 5 pitcher that Molly doesn't trust and will rarely use which puts a lot of innings on the rest of the bullpen. I'm OK with it because we need to see if Santana's for real and it seems to be working out. If Schafer coming off the DL and they keep both him and Robinson then I will be annoyed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have a gut feeling the demotion wasn't about performance and was something along the lines of maturing, attitude, or something else.

 

We are all frustrated that Escobar and Nunez are the DH, but I'm pretty positive that TR realizes that isn't ideal at this point either. Hopefully Vargas gets whatever fixed he needed too: whether performance wise or not

Molitor made a pointed statement about Vargas' approach when he was sent down. The demotion made a bit more sense at that point. Molitor said something along the lines of "he was somewhat lost; too aggressive one at-bat, too passive the next".

 

I don't know if I agree with that take but I can't really disagree with it, either. At least it wasn't a demotion made for completely nonsensical reasons, I suppose.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It appears to me that Molitor prefers speed and utility over Vargas and Arcia at this time.

Nunez has played zero innings in the field since he came back. But hey, theoretical utility.

 

Kinda like the theoretical depth of an 8 man bullpen, where you go a whole week and only use 6 guys.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Molitor made a pointed statement about Vargas' approach when he was sent down. The demotion made a bit more sense at that point. Molitor said something along the lines of "he was somewhat lost; too aggressive one at-bat, too passive the next".

I don't know if I agree with that take but I can't really disagree with it, either. At least it wasn't a demotion made for completely nonsensical reasons, I suppose.

 

I can understand that, though I wish they had done it prior to him stringing some success together.  It's a moot point now, but the timing bugs me.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nunez strikes me more as the late inning pinch hit bat.  He's got a decent stick and some pop.  Not very good in the field, but OK for the occasional start.  I don't mind him occasionally DHing, but there are better options in AAA.  I think the comments on Santana are pretty spot on.  I suspect he's going to be headed back to AAA sometime soon.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We are all frustrated that Escobar and Nunez are the DH, but I'm pretty positive that TR realizes that isn't ideal at this point either.

I think their ideal is Escobar as an everyday player. Which might be fine if they weren't so committed to Santana at SS or they didn't have lineup linchpins at 2B and 3B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I can understand that, though I wish they had done it prior to him stringing some success together. It's a moot point now, but the timing bugs me.

Yeah, same here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So he scatters some singles and pops some HRs against the Stauffer of other teams (when the lead was at least 8 runs and the two HRs added a combined 0 in WPA) and that's a turnaround? He barely walked and struck out a ton during that time. He does have talent but wasn't maximizing it, perfect guy to send back to AAA. I was glad they weren't fooled by some meaningless HRs and were actually proactive.

Actually Vargas was lowering his K rate during his hot streak. And it wasn't just a couple HR -- he had 7 multi-hit games in a span of 10 starts (not even counting the pinch hit HR), so there wasn't t a lot of room for strikeouts. And then he was immediately benched in favor of Escobar and Santana at DH, then demoted a few days later.

[Otto von Ballpark]

With all the foot-dragging going on with Vargas and Pinto, it makes me wonder if this all about Arcia moving to the DH role so Molitor can keep Rosario in left. If that's the case, I'm pretty okay with it, provided Oswaldo returns to Minnesota relatively soon.

You don't demote a guy two weeks before you think his replacement might be healthy. And actually a third week, if you count Vargas' last week in MLB where he was mostly on the bench.

 

I think this has mostly been about getting Escobar everyday at bats, and resisting a demotion for Santana (and getting Nunez regular starts too). It seems Molitor is like Gardy in that he loves some fellow infielders.

[drjim]

 

Actually Vargas was lowering his K rate during his hot streak. And it wasn't just a couple HR -- he had 7 multi-hit games in a span of 10 starts (not even counting the pinch hit HR), so there wasn't t a lot of room for strikeouts. And then he was immediately benched in favor of Escobar and Santana at DH, then demoted a few days later.

 

In his last 10 games, he had 9 ks in 35 pa, right in line with his k rate all season. 1 bb.

 

Again, he scattered some singles and popped a couple hrs in the lowest leverage situations possible. This isn't a "hot streak" this is at best the bare minimum that should be expected from Vargas to stay considering he offers no other value to the team. I'm glad the Twins weren't fooled by this.

[TheLeviathan]

 

In his last 10 games, he had 9 ks in 35 pa, right in line with his k rate all season. 1 bb.

 

Again, he scattered some singles and popped a couple hrs in the lowest leverage situations possible. This isn't a "hot streak" this is at best the bare minimum that should be expected from Vargas to stay considering he offers no other value to the team. I'm glad the Twins weren't fooled by this.

 

21 Ks in 69 ABs in April

 

9 Ks in 43 ABs in May

 

I'm reasonably confident these are not the same K rate.

[drjim]

 

21 Ks in 69 ABs in April

 

9 Ks in 43 ABs in May

 

I'm reasonably confident these are not the same K rate.

 

In his last 15 games played he had a k rate that exceeded his season k rate, all kinds of ways we can shift this to make whatever point you want. The bigger point is that this supposed "hot streak" was basically a mirage. A few extra singles and some low leverage bombs mixed in with lots of bad at bats.

 

But he'll be back and get his chance again.

 

Personally, when he was sent down I would have given Pinto a shot, but I'm not super offended in giving Escobar some extended at bats. But might be nearing time for a tweak to that plan.

[TheLeviathan]

The point most of us are making is that the time immediately preceding his demotion was his best of the season by pretty much any measure you choose to consider.  Certainly far better than the version of it you told.

 

It was strange timing to send him down then, when he was at his best the entire season.

[USAFChief]

In his last 15 games played he had a k rate that exceeded his season k rate, all kinds of ways we can shift this to make whatever point you want. The bigger point is that this supposed "hot streak" was basically a mirage. A few extra singles and some low leverage bombs mixed in with lots of bad at bats.

 

But he'll be back and get his chance again.

 

Personally, when he was sent down I would have given Pinto a shot, but I'm not super offended in giving Escobar some extended at bats. But might be nearing time for a tweak to that plan.

If we ignored everyone's "few extra singles" and "low leverage HRs" there would be nobody deserving of playing time.

 

Besides which, Escobar hasn't provided even that... .238/.263/.338.

[howeda7]

This is what should be done. Hermann brings nothing and is playing once a week.

What thinks of Arcia up for Stauffer AND Pinto up for Hermann?  You could then platoon the DH between Arcia and Pinto.  Arcia most of the time with righties and Pinto for the lefties.

 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The Twins get to watch all these guys practice and take cuts in the cage - the coaching staff and Terry Ryan know a lot more about these guys than we do.

 

I have to believe that Terry Ryan and the coaching staff have conversations about the offense, and specifically about Arcia, Pinto, and Vargas. All three seem on the surface to be more attractive options at DH than the Eduardos. The coaching staff must see something we aren't seeing.

 

It's not a secret that Arcia and Vargas are free swingers - it could very well be that the Twins think that Vargas is a net negative to the offense when his approach to hitting is so hot and cold. Molitor's quote about Vargas is revealing - too aggressive at times, too passive in later at bats.  By sending Vargas to  AAA, he should get the message that his big league playing time is directly linked to taking a more consistent approach.

 

I'm guessing Arcia is just not ready physically- he's yet to record a hit in the 4 games he's played in AAA.

 

And Pinto? He's slashing .252/.329/.400 so far this season. 5 Homers, 16 walks and 37 strikeouts.

[Craig Arko]

I'd be okay with Pinto, but it's really a power hitting lefty that's missing in this lineup. Arcia really needs to get it together.

[drjim]

 

If we ignored everyone's "few extra singles" and "low leverage HRs" there would be nobody deserving of playing time.

Besides which, Escobar hasn't provided even that... .238/.263/.338.

 

Disagree. I am looking at k and bb rates and performance against pitchers that pitch the majority of innings. He wasn't performing all that well and red flags were still there. This is an actual proactive move by the Twins - identifying a problem and being aggressive with a plan to fix it.

 

Vargas is a better raw hitter than Escobar, and he clearly has talent, but a return to the minors will hopefully allow him to regroup and come back stronger. He still had barely more than half a minor league season above A ball, he can use the seasoning.

 

My complaint, for what it's worth, is that they didn't call up Pinto and give him a crack at it.