Article: Possibility Of A Six-Man Rotation For The Twins

[Cody Christie]

Earlier this week, it was announced that the Mets would start using a six-man rotation. Their plan is to stick with having an extra starter in the rotation through early-to-mid-August. New York's reasoning behind the move is to shave innings totals without the need to shut down pitchers before the end of the season.The Mets have three young pitchers in their rotation who need to be watched closely. Matt Harvey is in his first season back from Tommy John surgery while fellow starters Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard both threw under 180 innings last year.

 

This isn't the first time an organization has tried shifting to a six-man rotation. In 2012, the Colorado Rockies, the Atlanta Braves, and the Chicago White Sox all toyed with using an extra starter. The results were mixed at best but it's certainly a trend to watch as injuries continue to plague baseball starters.

 

So far this season, the Minnesota Twins starting rotation has performed surprisingly well. Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey both have ERAs under 2.80, Ricky Nolasco has five wins, and Phil Hughes and Trevor May have been showing signs of improvement. That being said, there is an argument that could be made for Minnesota switching to a six-man rotation.

 

Besides the pitchers mentioned above, Tommy Milone is the only other Twins pitcher to start a game this season. In four starts, he posted a 4.76 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He has since been demoted to Rochester where he has been putting on a pitching clinic. In four Triple-A starts, he's allowed one earned run and struck out 41 in 31.2 innings.

 

Minnesota's top brass is keeping an eye on Milone. In fact Twins general manager Terry Ryan called a call-up "inevitable." Both manager Paul Molitor and Ryan are pleased with what the current rotation has been able to do. Molitor said, "The guys we have up here are holding their own."

 

The other looming pitching situation is the fact that the team is a handful of weeks away from Ervin Santana making his debut. Santana is suspended for the first 80 games this season after failing a drug test this spring. This puts him on track to rejoin Minnesota near the beginning of August. The Twins will have to make room for him in the rotation or be creative with how they use their starters.

 

If Minnesota's current starting pitching crop continues to pitch well, it would be interesting to see if the team would consider switching to a six-man rotation. Hughes, Nolasco and Santana are likely locked into rotation spots. Gibson and Pelfrey have been performing well so it seems unlikely their spots are in jeopardy at this point. This could leave May on the fringe with Milone breathing down his neck.

 

An injury or poor performance could plague the staff in the coming weeks so it seems unlikely for a six-man rotation to pop up in Minnesota in the near future. Starting pitching has been a problem in Minnesota during the last four years so it's nice to finally have a pitching surplus to worry about.

 

For more from Cody Christie make sure to follow him on Twitter @NoDakTwinsFan and to read his other work at http://www.NoDakTwinsFan.com

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

I could see it if they had a ton of aces, but the only real young arms are Gibson and May,  both of whom have enough mileage on their arms where that won't be an issue.  I think it's more likely that they bide their time till someone gets hurt or trade someone at the deadline.

[jimbo92107]

The more legit starters they have up, the more options Molitor will have for mixing the rotation or giving one or more starters a break. If you stash say, Milone and May in the pen, those guys have the raw stuff to step in anytime and get a few guys out, or pitch the rest of a game starting in the 3rd inning.

 

My point is, play to your strengths. Right now the Twins have more legit starters than great relievers. In fact, I was just reading that the Twins relief corps is ranked pretty low in the AL.

 

Another factor is late game. A typical reliever will go maybe two innings in a tight game late. May or Milone (or Pelfrey) could go five or six innings late game, saving the rest of the pen for the next day. That could make a big difference over the rest of the season.

 

Even if the Twins decide not to go with a 6-man rotation, they should still put a couple starters in the bullpen.

[HitInAPinch]

Unless this group of starters suddenly become consistent innings eaters, I fear the only result in a 6 man rotation is the bullpen would get grossly over used.

[stringer bell]

If the Twins were to go to 6 starters, I think one of the guys in fact really goes to the bullpen as a long man/starter in waiting.  My current vote would be for Milone to be recalled and May to move to the long man in the bullpen.  It is doubtful that six guys would stay both healthy and effective for a full five weeks until Ervin Santana is ready to go.

[jorgenswest]

They need to trade Pelfrey. He isn't under contract next year and they certainly don't need to commit to another pitcher in their 30s.

 

His groundball rate is at a career high with enough sample to hope it is based on skill. It might give him some trade value not expected going into the season. The Twins need to take the best the market will offer. They should probably do it soon before injury or string of mediocre starts.

[spinowner]

Interesting. Several times over the years I've heard pitchers say they were too strong after extra rest (due to rainouts, all-star game breaks, etc.) and as a result they didn't pitch well. I don't know enough about pitching to explain how that makes a difference but I think there's probably a good reason that the 5-man rotation has become the standard. The Mets' situation is unique, having 3 starters on innings limits. I'd consider staying with a 5-game rotation but have 2 of the spots covered by the 3 pitchers in question, giving one of them the day off each time through. That way the other 3 pitchers are still pitching on normal rest.

[Boom Boom]

I think a trade is a better idea.

 

Let's say the Twins had another starter at AAA beating the door down for a call-up along with Milone. Should they then consider a seven-man rotation?

 

I think you shop Pelfrey and Milone around and take the best deal you can get.

[dxpavelka]

I'd have no problem going with a 6 man rotation but I'd rank them 1-6 and with off days the bottom guys should get skipped in favor of the top guys.  I'd even do the same thing with a 5 man rotation.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

I think a trade is a better idea.

Let's say the Twins had another starter at AAA beating the door down for a call-up along with Milone. Should they then consider a seven-man rotation?

I think you shop Pelfrey and Milone around and take the best deal you can get.

Well, if you count Ervin Santana, that's 7 starters right there. The Twins could just let each guy pick a day of the week, and then instead of "Hughes" the jersey could just say "Thursday"

[Rosterman]

Experienced starters thrive on the five-man rotation. You may use a sixth at certain times, when games start to bunch up (or like the upcoming double-header), but if you have short starts, you have an overtaxed bullpen. Better to make a guy long relief (like Duensing was, Schaffer should be and Graham better be).

[Brock Beauchamp]

They need to trade Pelfrey. He isn't under contract next year and they certainly don't need to commit to another pitcher in their 30s.

 

His groundball rate is at a career high with enough sample to hope it is based on skill. It might give him some trade value not expected going into the season. The Twins need to take the best the market will offer. They should probably do it soon before injury or string of mediocre starts.

So the Twins, while leading the division, should trade their second best starter because he has value right now?

 

Sounds like a good way to intentionally shot yourself in the foot.

[Mike Sixel]

Not a fan. Going to a 6 or 7 man rotation, imo, is just delaying hard decisions. They have a lack of position players already. This won't help that, imo.

[spinowner]

 

So the Twins, while leading the division, should trade their second best starter because he has value right now?

Sounds like a good way to intentionally shot yourself in the foot.

Depends on the return. Almost any player is worth trading if the other team is willing to overpay. Buy low, sell high.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Depends on the return. Almost any player is worth trading if the other team is willing to overpay. Buy low, sell high.

Teams shouldn't worry about selling high when they're leading the division, particularly when it's one of the guys who helped them get there. If it helps make the team better today, that's a different story... But trading Mike Pelfrey probably isn't going to help make the team better in 2015.

[spinowner]

 

Teams shouldn't worry about selling high when they're leading the division, particularly when it's one of the guys who helped them get there. If it helps make the team better today, that's a different story... But trading Mike Pelfrey probably isn't going to help make the team better in 2015.

I agree that trading Pelfrey will probably not help this year's team but having a good record on June first should be viewed as a pleasant surprise, not as a sign that we should make an all-out effort to win the WS this year. (IMHO, of course.) Current success notwithstanding, I think building for next season and beyond should still be the organization's primary focus. Trading a good starter who is in the last year of his contract and who is unlikely to be with the team next season makes sense from that point of view, especially if we can find a team willing to buy high, like last year's Oakland A's.

Edited to add: if we feel Pelfrey is a pitcher we should keep then start talking extension.

Edited June 2, 2015 by spinowner

[Mike Sixel]

If the Twins are 10 games over .500 when trading starts.....they should NOT be punting on this year by trading a successful player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins are 10 games over .500 when trading starts.....they should NOT be punting on this year by trading a successful player.

This. Times 1000.

 

If the Twins are winning in July, the only "value" they should care about is what they're getting from the players on the field.

 

Worry about what happens in November in November.

[DaveW]

Trading Pelfrey is the dumbest thing this team could do at this juncture, first off: nobody is going to send back a blue chip prospect for him, so you instantly make the 2015 Twins worse. Second off: Pelfrey is pitching fantastically currently, even if he does falter a bit I think there is a really good chance he could become a shut down 8th inning guy for us. Lastly, Pelfrey is close to home and seems to enjoy pitching here, if the Twins can figure out a way to move Nolascos contract at some point I wouldn't be opposed to bringing Pelfrey back for 2016.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think if the Twins manage to stay in the playoff race up to the deadline, there's no reason they should be thinking about 2016. The nature of the beast is that you only get so many chances to make the playoffs, and once you're in, anything can happen (see the 2014 Royals, The W.S. Winning White Sox, the 87 Twins... etc, etc.).  

It would be a disappointment for the Twins to trade away MLB assets this season for the possibility of being in playoff contention in 2016.

That's not to say I think the Twins should be shopping their blue chippers to get this year's Matt Capps - but something akin to the Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty deal would be nice. This year that might be a veteran Short Stop, or a bullpen arm, or a DH -- who knows? Something on a smaller scale that fills a need without giving up too much. All of this is assuming of course that the Twins are still playing well in July (and June for that matter).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think if the Twins manage to stay in the playoff race up to the deadline, there's no reason they should be thinking about 2016. The nature of the beast is that you only get so many chances to make the playoffs, and once you're in, anything can happen (see the 2014 Royals, The W.S. Winning White Sox, the 87 Twins... etc, etc.).  

It would be a disappointment for the Twins to trade away MLB assets this season for the possibility of being in playoff contention in 2016.

That's not to say I think the Twins should be shopping their blue chippers to get this year's Matt Capps - but something akin to the Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty deal would be nice. This year that might be a veteran Short Stop, or a bullpen arm, or a DH -- who knows? Something on a smaller scale that fills a need without giving up too much. All of this is assuming of course that the Twins are still playing well in July (and June for that matter).

I'd be hesitant to make any trades that give up players in the organization's top 15 this season. I don't think the Twins have the horses to compete through the dog days. I'd rather see them start aggressively infusing the lineup with potential breakout players like Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc. Maybe Meyer out of the pen in July. Those moves could pay as big, if not bigger, dividends through the rest of the season.

 

But yeah, no trades that deplete the on-field product of the Minnesota Twins, either. Does anyone really care if Mike Pelfrey walks away after the season is complete? I sure don't. And if you don't care whether Pelfrey walks, why on earth would you trade him while the team is contending?

 

Enjoy the winning, don't rock the boat. Save some of those valuable trade chits for 2016 and beyond. Just let it ride this season and see what happens.

[Willihammer]

I highly doubt the return from Mike Pelfrey would improve the team in the near term or the short term. Plus, think about it. Who trades for rentals? Other contenders. Well if the Twins are in contention at the deadline, they're not going to want to improve another AL contender so right there the market is narrowed to NL teams, further whittling any return to at best Escobar lite (lite).

 

But, I would love to see this team trade from their prospect pool. They have yet another top 10 pick coming, they can afford to. A prospect package for a promising young player in his 20s who is maybe pre-arb or early in arbitration would be ideal IMO.

[Shane Wahl]

If one wants Berrios, one has to also be shedding someone from the rotation. Nolasco isn't going anywhere. So . . . who, if not Pelfrey, eventually?

 

6-man rotation would make sense if the rotation already had Berrios, Meyer, Rogers, and Duffey in it (and maybe not even then).

[nicksaviking]

Not a fan of a six man rotation, but I do like reading about actual baseball related topics.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If one wants Berrios, one has to also be shedding someone from the rotation. Nolasco isn't going anywhere. So . . . who, if not Pelfrey, eventually?

 

6-man rotation would make sense if the rotation already had Berrios, Meyer, Rogers, and Duffey in it (and maybe not even then).

 

It is a good point, plus Santana can't pitch in the post season. I don't envy Ryan this particular decision right now.

[gocgo]

 

They need to trade Pelfrey. He isn't under contract next year and they certainly don't need to commit to another pitcher in their 30s.

His groundball rate is at a career high with enough sample to hope it is based on skill. It might give him some trade value not expected going into the season. The Twins need to take the best the market will offer. They should probably do it soon before injury or string of mediocre starts.

Keep in mind that he added a split finger this year that has been giving batters fits and adding to the ground ball outs.  That said, I am a proponent of trading him at the deadline for the right piece.  What is the right piece?  Stud shortstop?  Stud  catching prospect?  Potential ace?  Dunno.

[jorgenswest]

Keep in mind that he added a split finger this year that has been giving batters fits and adding to the ground ball outs.  That said, I am a proponent of trading him at the deadline for the right piece.  What is the right piece?  Stud shortstop?  Stud  catching prospect?  Potential ace?  Dunno.

There is no way a pitchers with a 4.36 xFIP brings back an ace or a stud. That is not being a proponent of trading him.

 

Do the Twins buy high on Pelfrey as they did with Doumit and Suzuki?

 

Do they sell high and take the best the market will offer?

 

Do they let it ride and make a qualifying offer if his second half matches his first half?

[GACbaseball]

I think we should hang on to Pelfrey until atleast late July and see where we are. I'd love to see us have this pitching staff for the stretch run:

SP: Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Pelfrey and Nolasco

LR: Milone, Graham

MR: May, Fien, Tyler Jay

SU: Boyer, Alex Meyer

CL: Perkins

 

Thompson, Pressly, Tonkin, Achter, all ready to step in with injuries. Let Berrios continue to develop through the minor league season and then call him up in September for spot starts/lights out relief

 

If we get a good deal for Milone, I say take it. He's pretty expendable right now, in my opinion

[gocgo]

 

There is no way a pitchers with a 4.36 xFIP brings back an ace or a stud. That is not being a proponent of trading him.

Do the Twins buy high on Pelfrey as they did with Doumit and Suzuki?

Do they sell high and take the best the market will offer?

Do they let it ride and make a qualifying offer if his second half matches his first half?

Let me clarify - stud=potential as in prospect.  It just depends on what the market offers.  Teams that need another solid starter to compete for their division and make it into the post season are willing to pay.  That said, the additional wild card spot has really thrown a wrench into the whole trade market at the deadline IMO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let me clarify - stud=potential as in prospect.  It just depends on what the market offers.  Teams that need another solid starter to compete for their division and make it into the post season are willing to pay.

If you look at midseason trade returns for comparable pitchers, I don't think you're going to like what you see.  Actually, it seems most comparable guys don't even get dealt because the potential return is so minimal.

 

Even if Pelfrey still somehow has a 2.28 ERA at the end of July, you're almost certainly better off riding whatever voodoo witchcraft is going on rather than trying to flip him for anything meaningful, given his history.  (FWIW, he had a 2.23 season ERA on June 12, 2010 too, in more innings than he has in 2015.)