Article: Twins Draft Preview: Aiken & Allard

[Jeremy Nygaard]

As recently as a few month ago, many Twins and draft fans would have been shocked and ecstatic if told there was a possibility that either Brady Aiken, last year’s first overall pick, or Kolby Allard, the top prep pitcher in the class, would be available at pick #6.

 

But both would be available? You’re nuts.

 

Only you’re not crazy at all. That’s the ups-and-downs when it comes to pitching prospects.Who are these guys?

 

The Saga of Brady Aiken is too long to spell out in these bios - and many of you know it already. Aiken attempted to kick off his 2015 season pitching for IMG Academy of March 19. Aiken, a lefty, was supposed to throw 40 pitches that day, facing a national team from Canada, in what was one of the most anticipated starts all spring. He threw 12.

 

A week later, AIken announced online that he had undergone Tommy John surgery.

 

Another lefty, Kolby Allard, was considered the top prep arm in the draft by many experts. A summer on the circuit demonstrating a mid-90s fastball and a plus breaking ball will do that. Of course, this spring Allard was diagnosed with a “stress reaction” in his back and would miss up to two months.

 

Well, those two months have passed and six-foot Allard still isn’t throwing off of a mound.

 

Why the Twins would pick them

 

Adding either AIken or Allard to an already-stacked farm system would almost be unfair. Aiken projects as a #1, a player similar to Cole Hamels. While some don’t project Allard to have that ceiling, he reminds others of a left-handed version of Zack Greinke. The Twins would be lucky to have a guy like that at the top of their rotation.

 

In fact, the Twins seem to be the highest team with connections to Allard. If he proves healthy before the draft, it’s a marriage that will seemingly happen.

So what’s the problem, right?

 

Why the Twins will not pick them

 

There are a few problems.

 

First, let’s start with Aiken. As the Saga goes, Brady Aiken had an MRI that showed UCL “abnormalities” before he intended to sign with Houston. That’s where the clarity ends. Some have reported a shorter UCL, some have reported a narrow UCL. Nothing is clear except that it was “abnormal” and led the Astros to believe that his future health was more in question than most pitchers his age.

In addition to that - after having the surgery - there are reports that won’t let go about his “abnormal” UCL. Basically, they think the long-term health of his left elbow jeopardizes his entire professional career. That could be enough of a question mark to have the Twins simply say, “No thanks.”

 

The money would also be an issue. Would he sign for less than $4 million this year after walking away from $5 million less than a year ago? That’s a big question mark. And the fact that all indications point in the direction that teams haven’t received medicals on Aiken yet, you’re now dealing with a whole other set of issues. Issues that might, simply, just not be worth it.

 

Kolby Allard is a different story. He’s not dealing with an elbow issue. Nobody is suggesting that his career may be in jeopardy. What we are dealing with, though, is an undersized 17-year-old who hasn’t been available to watch for the last three months.

 

When he returns, how will his mechanics be? Once a pitcher starts throwing differently, it messes with your whole body. Just today, the Nationals placed Stephen Strasburg on the disabled list with neck tightness. The cause of this tightness? An ankle sprain that caused him - probably unknowingly - to make some mechanical adjustments that added stress to his neck and shoulder area. And what ends up feeling these adjustments in the end? Typically a small little ligament in the elbow…

 

Now, obviously, that’s projecting the worst-case scenario. A scenario that doesn’t even need a lead-up. Any pitcher’s elbow can snap at any time.

 

The question is for the Twins: Are you willing to invest big money - and likely your last high pick - in damaged goods?

 

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[DaveTMpls]

A left-handed Zach Grienke? I'll take 2.

[Captain Hindsight]

I would not mind the Twins taking a chance on either player. In fact, unless Rodgers or Swanson fell, I would prefer it.  Both of these players represent the type of obvious high end talent that this draft lacks. It is possible, if not very likely neither would be available if healthy. It certainly is risky with their injuries but the pay off makes it justifiable. 

[Monkeypaws]

I'd prefer a healthy player at #6.

 

If the Twins were drafting in the 20s, it might make sense, much as when they got Gibson.

[snarkerbarnyard]

As someone who has suffered a Stress Reaction in their back before, I'll say that it's not that hard of an injury to come back from, and if he waits 3 months and keeps up with his core strength, he, and the Twins, shouldn't be worrying! I'd love for the Twins to take Allard. A reaction is just a bruised bone, not like a fracture, which would mean the vertebra was actually broken.

[sftwinsfan]

I'm more open to Allard at this point than Aiken.  Especially knowing they haven't gotten Aiken's medicals.  If the medicals check out and you get permission to talk to the surgeon and everything seems ok I would be overjoyed to get Aiken, assuming he would sign as well.  That's a lot of ifs, so I doubt it will happen.  

[Seth Stohs]

Jeremy, is there any chance that Aiken falls down to the Twins compensatory pick? I'm thinking no, and I know you have Aiken going in the late 1st round, but maybe there's more of a fall.

[Tibs]

After reading this, I don't want anything to do with Aiken at 6 (unless something comes out between now and the draft). I wouldn't be unhappy with Allard. If they are confident and want him, go for it.

 

Does the possibility of not having a pick as high as #6 for a while really have an effect on their decision here?