Article: Mauer: Productive Season Or Worst Season

[kamarainen]

I was having a discussion with an old friend of mine over a beer last night. I was drinking a Guinness and he was having a Bell’s Two-Hearted. We were talking about Joe Mauer, and we had very different perceptions about what kind of year number 7 was having.As I recalled several key hits he’d had over the last week, I thought he was doing fine overall. It seemed to me he was delivering more often at the plate when the Twins needed it. My friend, however, thought Mauer was having his worst season ever.

 

How could we have such different views?

 

Maybe I’m getting too old and can’t remember much anymore. But, my friend was born four months before me, so maybe it was his memory that was failing. Looking to prove my sanity, I decided to leverage Baseball Reference’s Play Index to take a better look (all stats as of 5/26).

 

First the obvious stuff. Mauer’s slash line for the year is the lowest of his career overall (.271/.333/.371). He had a slightly lower slugging percentage in 2011, but otherwise they are all career lows. This clearly supported my friend’s view of Mauer’s year. But, what about Joe’s productivity with runners on base? Didn't he clear the bases with a single in Pittsburgh, or was that a dream?

 

Mauer’s stats with someone on base:

http://i.imgur.com/CU5J3RJ.png

 

.378/.467/.500! Those are outstanding numbers! It looks like Joe has been productive at the plate this year. But, if these numbers are that good, how are they when the bases are empty?

 

http://i.imgur.com/Mr1S1PZ.png

 

Ugh! Those numbers are horrible no matter how you want to spin it. Roughly the same sample size for each, and even though it's early in the season, that’s a crazy difference! .378/.467/.500 vs .188/.212/.271.

 

Well, maybe we each had a valid point and didn't need to look into retirement homes quite yet. But with that solved, I was still wondering what was happening. I can’t ask number 7 because I’m just a regular Joe (get it?) drinking at the 573 club and don’t have clubhouse access. But, that won’t stop me from digging further into the stats to see if there are any clues to the reason for this huge dichotomy.

 

When there’s nobody on base, Mauer has 45 plate appearances with two outs, 28 with one out, and 26 with no outs. Drilling into the largest set, the plate appearances with two outs, give us a little more information.

http://i.imgur.com/memCRIX.png

 

He has 19 strikeouts with the bases empty, and 13 of them are with two outs. That’s 68% even though it’s only 45% of his plate appearances. Maybe he’s trying to swing for the fences in that situation, and coming up short? If he’s being more aggressive, we should probably see that in the number of walks. In fact, he only has one walk in 45 plate appearances. One! Checking his overall numbers with the bases empty, he only has three walks in 99 PAs. That doesn’t make sense, Joe walks a fair amount doesn’t he? Yes, Mauer still works the walk quite a bit. In 90 PAs Mauer has 13 walks (plus four intentional passes) with runners on.

 

Checking the rest of Mauer’s numbers with the bases empty, they aren’t much better.

http://i.imgur.com/p3ii5Sf.png

 

Some improvement, but still really poor numbers by any standard.

 

So, what does this mean? In my opinion, it shows that this year Mauer is very focused with runners on, and is outstanding at doing whatever he can to contribute. Whether it's walks, productive outs, advancing runners or driving them in, he's doing it at a stellar rate so far. However, I think it also shows that Mauer is taking a very different approach when there aren’t any runners on base, an approach that appears to be to his detriment. As good as his performance is with runners on, his performance is equally bad with the bases empty.

 

It's like a tale of two Mauer's this year. Why? We can only guess. I have my own theories, as do you I bet. Maybe we can chat about them sometime in the 573 club over a Surly.

 

Thanks for reading. Cheers!

twitter: @kamarainen

 

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[h2oface]

Mauer hasn't been the same since he got married. Could be coincidence, but it seems his married life has not been good for his baseball compartment.

[USAFChief]

Yes.

[Wookiee of the Year]

I wonder if any of this could be related to shifts? There was a lot of talk about shifting on Mauer last year, but I don't think I've heard any more comments about it this year, and don't know how common it's been. Nevertheless, shifts are much more common with the bases empty than with runners on that the defense needs to hold. Makes me wonder if there's a connection.

[Thegrin]

and Joe has hit into the most Double Plays of any Twin.  I agree.  There has been a change in his approach. 

[Brananorama]

I want to see a spread of where his hit balls go when the bases are empty and where they go when there's runners on.

 

With the new pull-approach he and Bruno were working on, he may have it in his head that he should try out the new approach, swing earlier, and hook it into right when there's nobody on and he has "nothing to lose" and can't hurt the runners -- it's his time to experiment in-game. But when there's baserunners around, he wants to do what he knows how to do and get them home, and reverts to a more Mauer approach.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he has mostly pulls with nobody on and a more sprayed-out spread with runners on base/specifically in scoring position.

[jimmer]

 

Mauer hasn't been the same since he got married. Could be coincidence, but it seems his married life has not been good for his baseball compartment.

He was having a very good year in 2013 until he had a concussion and he had a very good year the year before. Maybe it has more to do with the concussion than being married.  

[mikelink45]

Maybe he is one of those players who peaked early and we now have a career of average Joe

[KGB]

 

I wonder if any of this could be related to shifts? There was a lot of talk about shifting on Mauer last year, but I don't think I've heard any more comments about it this year, and don't know how common it's been. Nevertheless, shifts are much more common with the bases empty than with runners on that the defense needs to hold. Makes me wonder if there's a connection.

Joe's BABIP is still around .330 (.342 last year) which is around is career average so I don't think it's the shifts affecting him.  It looks more like a slower bat which is increasing the strike out totals which has been going up since 2012.  He was helped with a high BABIP in 2013, which if it was at his career average he would have hit below .300.  The increasing in K's isn't related to an increase in power, so it's really hard to hit .300 with his strike out totals, just ask Danny Santana.

 

But if he get's 90-100 RBI's and helps the team win, it hard to be too disappointed with his season.  But you really can't expect to see the Mauer of five years ago.

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

But if he get's 90-100 RBI's and helps the team win, it hard to be too disappointed with his season.  But you really can't expect to see the Mauer of five years ago.

I also believe the concussion had the biggest impact on Joe.   If not for that why would it not be reasonable to expect his production of 5 years ago?   I believe he has career average years left in him.   I also think he has an extended hot streak in him this year.

[jimbo92107]

I think Brananorama fugured it out. With runners on, Mauer steps up in RBI mode, but if nobody is on base, he's working on his power game, which is supposed to feature pulling the ball.

 

I bet pitchers picked up on this difference a long time ago. They're pitching Mauer outside and low when there's no RISP, knowing he'll try to pull it anyway. Result: tons of ground balls to the exact same spot, the second baseman.

 

Mauer's going to have to make an adjustment. He's got to make pitchers pay for all those low, outside pitches. Line drives to the right-center gap would do it. Drive some doubles, and then when they come back inside, pull it. BOOM.

[KGB]

 

I also believe the concussion had the biggest impact on Joe.   If not for that why would it not be reasonable to expect his production of 5 years ago?   I believe he has career average years left in him.   I also think he has an extended hot streak in him this year.

Mauer said the last 2 years that he has no effect from the concussions.  I think the concussion is becoming a excuse for just the fact that he not the same player anymore.  His hot streaks used to be a 2 month period, now it's 2 weeks.

 

I hope you are right, if the Twins are going to continue to be a playoff contender, it would be nice to see Mauer's overall production improve.  It will be hard to expect a .400 average with RISP.

[HitInAPinch]

Lies, damn lies and statistics. 

[silverslugger]

Perhaps the disparity speaks more to what the pitchers are doing rather than anything Joe is doing.  Maybe with nobody on base pitchers are much more willing to pitch around Joe and nibble on the corners.  Of course, he's not walking in these instances which means he's probably chasing a bit which speaks to the aggressiveness mentioned by a previous poster.  This would be an interesting subject for Parker to address in only the way he can.

 

Two perceptions on my part over the past few years; 1) Joe doesn't seem to be getting the benefit of the doubt on the outside edge with umps anymore.  I think pitchers are pitching that outside edge to him so often now that the umps are calling more strikes just off the plate because there are so many pitches pitched there.  Also, and this has been dealt with quite a bit, but I still feel Joe has probably been the biggest loser when it comes to the dynamics of Target Field.  So many of his high drives to left field seem to die on the warning track.  Left field is great for hitting homers, if they're line drives.

[mikecgrimes]

I really like Mauer this year, if you can't think of him as an under $12 million player you'll never be capable of evaluating him from this point forward.  When he needs to get you an RBI he's been getting you it.  He's also seems to be hitting more long fly balls.  He's settled in to being basically Gene Larkin with a lot more double power,  I wanted him to still be willing to be the emergency catcher and move around in the field a little that would be huge for his value, but he's settled into being an above average defensive first basemen with room for improvement I expect to see, with a very competent bat and no matter how bad it gets nobody will be shocked if he hit's .430 for a month.  

 

He's helping us win games, I wanted to Vargas or Sano get all his at bats after the 1-6 start when it looked like this would be nothing more then a development year but he belongs in the everyday lineup.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

To whah extent do you think infield shifting plays into this? Maybe with runners in base teams are less likely to shift to keep the double play in order and hold runners on?

[USAFChief]

Oswaldo Arcia was hitting .276/.338/.379 when he went on the disabled list, and he is widely viewed as a disappointment so far in 2015.

 

As of this morning, Mauer is hitting .275/.333/.374.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Oswaldo Arcia was hitting .276/.338/.379 when he went on the disabled list, and he is widely viewed as a disappointment so far in 2015.

 

As of this morning, Mauer is hitting .275/.333/.374.

Yeah, you are talking about 65 plate appearances for Arcia there vs. 201 for Joe though. That's 3 times as many.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, you are talking about 65 plate appearances for Arcia there vs. 201 for Joe though. That's 3 times as many.

I don't know if sustaining a .720 OPS at an offense first position is really an advantage, though.

[spinowner]

 

I don't know if sustaining a .720 OPS at an offense first position is really an advantage, though.

I think evaluating a player's offensive performance in terms of his defensive position overthinks things a little. I do think that it's more important for, say, a left fielder to contribute offensively than it is for, say, a catcher to do so, but if your lineup as a whole is a good one the positions the various players play isn't that important.

[Mike Sixel]

I think evaluating a player's offensive performance in terms of his defensive position overthinks things a little. I do think that it's more important for, say, a left fielder to contribute offensively than it is for, say, a catcher to do so, but if your lineup as a whole is a good one the positions the various players play isn't that important.

Except he plays first base. Compare him to other first basemen, and Joe looks quite bad.

[h2oface]

 

He was having a very good year in 2013 until he had a concussion and he had a very good year the year before. Maybe it has more to do with the concussion than being married.  

It was just a musing, that marriage has not been good for Mauer's baseball, and the concussion is a real thing, too, i agree. Still.......... as anyone that is married knows, marriage takes a lot of work and attention and time and focus. Add to the mix two kids at the same time, and you have an intangible that can be pshawed if inclined, or considered if one attempts to look for answers outside the box. Either way, or neither way, Joe Mauer is not what he once was to this point since the concussion, marriage and children has been added to the compartments of his life, and the move to first has not created the effects desired. Here's to hoping he finds it. Turn on the ball, Big Joe!

Edited May 31, 2015 by h2oface

[Brandon Warne]

 

Oswaldo Arcia was hitting .276/.338/.379 when he went on the disabled list, and he is widely viewed as a disappointment so far in 2015.

As of this morning, Mauer is hitting .275/.333/.374.

 

Arcia raised his OPS 200 points in the six days before his injury.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Arcia raised his OPS 200 points in the six days before his injury.

And Mauer raised his 130 points over 6 games the same week. Point being?

[Brandon Warne]

 

And Mauer raised his 130 points over 6 games the same week. Point being?

 

Mauer has a little longer leash, and that's where Arcia's limited sample size ends. So basically, Arcia spent 2/3 of his season as a disappointment before turning it on at the end. 

 

Mauer's OPS also never started with a 5, either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mauer has a little longer leash, and that's where Arcia's limited sample size ends. So basically, Arcia spent 2/3 of his season as a disappointment before turning it on at the end.

 

Mauer's OPS also never started with a 5, either.

According to B-Ref, Mauer's OPS started with a 5 after 55 PA. Arcia's last did so after 54 PA.

 

And it's not like a .700-something OPS was a fluke for Arcia, he has been in the range each of the last two seasons, over 850 PA.

 

And unfortunately, Mauer is right there with him over his past 720 PA and he hasn't been trending up.

[jimmer]

I'm as big of a Mauer defender as there is because, hey, what a talent, but he's been bad with the bat this year, overall.  He can't even blame a bad BABIP because his is .325. Even with the RBI, he's been below average, overall, in creating runs.  

 

Now, he does have a fantastic history which is likely why he gets a pass from some over some younger players because he's proven he can do it in the majors over a larger time period and they haven't.  Some people expect him to eventually pull out of this because of it and because it's hard to believe someone who was doing so well as recently as mid 2013 has fallen off so steeply. He may, and he may not.

[nicksaviking]

Not the worst, but definately among his worst.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

I don't know if sustaining a .720 OPS at an offense first position is really an advantage, though.

The point is that Arcia's percentages could very well go down by the time he reached 201 PAs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The point is that Arcia's percentages could very well go down by the time he reached 201 PAs.

Again, I don't think that is particularly likely. Arcia has 850 MLB PA at or above that level of production, it wasn't some small sample fluke.