Article: Evaluating The Twins Bullpen: Part 1

[Boone]

This is the first part in what I envision being a three part examination of the Twins bullpen. In Part I, I will look at the 2015 Twins bullpen as a whole, and compare it to the other bullpens in MLB. In Parts II and III, I will look at the performance of the individual members of the Twins bullpen and then at several players in the upper levels of the Twins minor league system who could be viable replacement options.There are two main features of the Twins’ bullpen so far in 2015: it’s bad, and it’s old. Let’s start off with the bad. Here is a rundown of how the pen is performing in a number of key categories:

 

ERA: 4.01 (21st in MLB)

FIP: 4.19 (25th in MLB)

WAR: .4 (23)

 

These numbers make it pretty clear that the Twins bullpen is in the bottom third of the league. Why has the bullpen performed so poorly? The answer is a combination of a lack of strikeouts and an inability to generate ground balls, which is leading to a high number of home runs. Look for yourself:

 

K%: 15.6% (30)

BB%: 6.6% (2)

K/BB: 2.34 (22)

GB/FB: 1.09 (27)

HR/9: 1.0 (22)

 

Poor performance in these categories—the three “true outcomes”—makes it pretty difficult to find sustainable success. Therefore, unless the Twins make a dramatic improvement in these peripheral numbers, don’t expect their overall performance to improve.

 

Now, on to the age issue. In case you weren’t aware, the Twins have a pretty old bullpen. The average age of the members of the Twins bullpen, weighted for innings pitched¹, is 30.0 years old. I don’t have numbers for the average age of other bullpens in MLB, but I would be willing to bet that the Twins have one of the oldest bullpens in all of baseball.

 

To summarize: in case you hadn’t noticed, the Twins bullpen consists of (1) old pitchers who (2) don’t strikeout many batters and (3) fail to generate many ground balls. The result is one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. Yes, we have a stud closer, but outside of Perkins, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Twins have the worst bullpen in all of baseball.

 

So why do we care? Obviously, a good bullpen is an important part of a team’s success. But beyond that, having an old bullpen means it’s less likely that our relief pitchers will make significant improvements in their individual performances over the course of the rest of the season. Furthermore, if the Twins do fall out of contention, it would be beneficial, long-term, for the club to give some younger players some experience at the big league level.

 

1: The sum, for all relievers, of each pitcher's age multiplied by the percentage of the bullpen's IP that they have accounted for.

 

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[dbminn]

The relievers who appear when the Twins are in a close game have been excellent by the "one true outcome" - team wins. I believe that last night's loss to Toronto was the second time the Twins failed to hold a lead after the 6th inning. As long as they win, the top of the bullpen will stay the same.

 

Can the relievers who have appeared in close games sustain their excellence? Other than Perkins, probably not.The Twins will adjust as the season progresses and Boyer and Thompson falter. As it should be.    

 

Many of the current crop of "mop-up" relievers will be the first to go. I would have no problem moving Stauffer and Duensing right now and bringing up some younger blood.

 

[HitInAPinch]

The Twins have had success grabbing pitchers of the MLB scrapheap and turning them into quality relief pitchers.  Burton and Fien come to mind.  They've also been pretty good at transforming not-so-effective starters into quality relievers.  Latroy Hawkins is the best example I can think of.  We've got Duensing and Stauffer hanging around now.  Maybe that magic has ended.  Good thing there seems to be better, younger options available.

 

I really take exception to Glen Perkins as "we have a stud closer".  In Perkins, I see a lot of "3a" saves.  As in MLB save rule 3a that says "He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning;".  To me, if there's no active threat, that's not "saving" anything. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, there's help in the minors too, and these king of guys can be acquired relatively cheap via trade.  I would think this is something that needs to be addressed very soon.

[troyhobbs]

I've always thought Perkins to be little over rated, he's still very good but the team as a whole is thriving on clutch performance more so than superior talent. They're flaws will be exposed at some point but I like what they have going for them longterm outside of the bullpen and it's been fun to watch so far.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I've always thought Perkins to be little over rated, he's still very good but the team as a whole is thriving on clutch performance more so than superior talent.

Glen Perkins is not overrated. Since 2011, here are his stats:

 

IP: 279.1

SO: 307

BB: 66 (!)

H: 239

HR: 24 (!)

 

Those are pretty close to video game numbers.

[Danchat]

Perkins, Fien, Boyer, and Thompson is a good start. We need some young guys who can get strikeouts behind them. (Looking at you, Tonkin, Achter, and Oliveros)

[DaveTMpls]

Twins bullpen has been one of the strengths of the team over the past month. I think this article shows why you don't want to use season totals to evaluate a club that started badly.

 

The best example I can think of us Duensing. Used in the LOOGY role in May, he's been as good as Perkins. He was pretty bad when asked to pitch complete innings.

[spinowner]

Perkins' biggest flaw as a closer is that he's left-handed. While not a major factor it is a disadvantage.