Article: Twins Minor League Report (5/29): Kelly, Keaton Help The Kernels

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins fell to the Blue Jays thanks to one of our favorite Old Friends. Chris Colabello’s two-run homer off Glen Perkins was the difference in the Jays 6-4 win.

 

Colabello is a good reminder of why these minor league reports are so important. He was a minor league free agent signed after eight seasons in independent ball. He has made it to the big leagues and contributed. In these daily reports, we don’t solely focus on the prospects. We focus on all players who deserve to be recognized because you never know which ones will get to The Show. Colabello was mentioned frequently in these reports in his two-plus seasons in the organization.With that, here’s what happened on Friday in the Minnesota Twins minor league system:

 

TRANSACTIONS

• Casey Fien’s rehab stint in Rochester ended as he was activated by the Twins. To make room for him, Michael Tonkin was optioned yet again to Rochester.
• Ethan Mildren was played on the disabled list by the Ft. Myers Miracle. Matt Summers was removed from the Chattanooga disabled list and sent to the Miracle.

RED WINGS REPORT

 

The Red Wings had a few games rained out in the season’s first week. Tonight, Rochester played a doubleheader in Buffalo because of a rain out in early April.

 

Game 1 – Rochester 2, Buffalo 1

Box Score

 

In the top of the second inning, Danny Ortiz walked. Two batters later, Ryan Wheeler hit his first Red Wings home run to give the team a 2-0 lead. That was all of the run scoring for the Red Wings. It was also one of just five hits for the team in Game 1. Doug Bernier’s fifth double was the lone extra base hit.

 

Fortunately, lefty Pat Dean was up to the challenge. The left-hander gave up a run in the bottom of the second inning, and that was it. He got one out in the bottom of the seventh before AJ Achter came in to get the final two outs and record his seventh save. Dean went 6.1 innings and gave up just the one run on six hits. He walked two and struck out two.

 

Game 2 – Rochester 2, Buffalo 4

Box Score

 

The Red Wings jumped out to an early 2-0 lead in Game 2. Danny Ortiz doubled in two runs in the third inning. However, the Bisons followed that with a big four-run inning in the bottom half of the third frame.

 

Tyler Duffey made his second AAA start of the season. In the first two innings, he gave up just one hit. He gave up the four runs in the third inning, but then got another five outs. Duffey was charged with four runs (three earned) on seven hits and two walks in 4.2 innings. He struck out three.

 

Logan Darnell came on and got the final out of the fifth inning as well as the first two outs in the sixth inning. He had one walk and one strikeout. Alex Meyer came on to get the final out of the inning. He got it, on a strikeout.

 

Ortiz led the offense. He was 2-3 with his 12^th double. Josmil Pinto entered the game as a pinch hitter in the seventh and doubled.

 

Following the split, the Red Wings are now 27-22.

 

CHATTANOOGA CHATTER

Chattanooga 2, Biloxi 3

Box Score

 

Greg Peavey has really turned around his season after a very slow start in April. He gave up two runs in the second inning, but then he settled in and went six innings.

 

The Lookouts tied the game at two in the fifth. With Carlos Paulino on second base and Byron Buxton on first base, Jorge Polanco hit a long single. Paulino scored, but the throw from the outfield got away from the catcher and Buxton scored all the way from first base.

 

That’s where the game remained until the top of the eighth. Tim Shibuya came out for his second inning after a scoreless seventh frame. He gave up a run on three hits.

 

The Lookouts tried to come back in the bottom of the ninth. With two outs, Buxton walked and then stole second on the first pitch. However, Polanco grounded out to end the game.

 

The Lookouts had just five hits in the game. Stephen Wickens went 2-4. Buxton had a walk and a single. The stolen base was his 14^th of the year. He also was credited with two outfield assists.

 

Peavey gave another quality start. He was charged with only those two runs. He gave up three hits, walked three and struck out two. Shibuya took the loss. He gave up the one run on three hits. He struck one out and didn’t walk anyone. D.J. Johnson pitched the ninth inning. He gave up one hit and struck out two.

 

Miguel Sano was out of the lineup for the second straight games. Before the Twins game on Friday night, GM Terry Ryan told the writers that Sano had a jammed finger.

 

Chattanooga, the top team in the Southern League’s North Division is now 29-18. Biloxi, the leader in the Southern League’s South Division, is 29-19.

 

MIRACLE MATTERS

Ft. Myers 6, Clearwater 7

Box Score

 

Kohl Stewart was back on the mound following the best start of his season. On this night, he wasn’t his best. He gave up four runs in the first inning. Overall, he gave up six runs (five earned) on ten hits. He walked none and struck out one. Brian Gilbert came on and struck out one over two perfect innings. Matt Summers made his first appearance in a game this season. He struck out one in a perfect inning. Alex Muren pitched a scoreless eighth inning. However, he gave up the winning run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to take the loss.

 

The Miracle offense showed up. They had 15 hits in the game. Zach Granite went 3-5 with his fifth Miracle double. Alex Swim, Ryan Walker and Niko Goodrum were each 2-5 in the game. Bryan Haar went 2-4. Tanner Vavra came in later. He had a pinch-hit RBI single and added a second RBI single later in the game.

 

With the loss, the Miracle are now 24-24.

 

 

KERNELS NUGGETS

Cedar Rapids 6, Clinton 2

Box Score

 

Keaton Steele made just his second start for the Kernels, and it was a good one. The right-hander went seven innings and gave up just one run on five hits. He walked three and struck out six. Randy LeBlanc recorded his first save of the year with two scoreless innings.

 

Pat Kelly had a terrific game. He went 3-4 with his third triple of the year. Brett Doe was also 3-4 with his fifth double and two RBI. Zack Larson went 1-3 with a walk and his fifth double.

 

The Kernels improved to 31-18.

 

TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY

 

Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Keaton Steele, Cedar Rapids Kernels

Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Pat Kelly, Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS

 

Rochester @ Buffalo (4:05 CST) – LHP Tommy Milone

Biloxi @ Chattanooga (6:15 CST) – RHP DJ Baxendale

Ft. Myers @ St. Lucie (5:30 CST) – RHP Chih-Wei Hu

Clinton @ Cedar Rapids (6:35 CST) – RHP Zach Tillery

 

 

Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss the Friday games.

 

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[nater79a]

Zach Granite gets promoted from Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers and doesn't miss a beat. What a spark plug he is at the top of the order.

[drock2190]

Stewart is falling fast in my eyes. Could flame out in High A or Double AA.

 

Getting knocked around and striking out very few hitters.

 

 

[h2oface]

I would love to see a trade with Colorado, giving them Stewart, Arcia, and Danny Santana for Tulo. Nothing against Stewart, but Tulo is the best, and Stewart is in high A and a hope and dream.

[Sweetwater]

Stewart is trash. Even when he pitches well, he doesn't get Ks. If only he can rebound his ERA a bit so TR can sell him to some dumb organization for a quality player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Stewart is trash. Even when he pitches well, he doesn't get Ks. If only he can rebound his ERA a bit so TR can sell him to some dumb organization for a quality player.

Uh... Okay. I guess almost every baseball analyst on the planet must be completely wrong about Kohl.

 

His K rate is mildly concerning but the guy has loads of talent.

[drock2190]

 

Uh... Okay. I guess almost every baseball analyst on the planet must be completely wrong about Kohl.

His K rate is mildly concerning but the guy has loads of talent.

 

Mildy concerning? Dude is striking out 4 per 9. To put that into context, Gibson and Buerhle are striking that many out in the majors and that's almost unacceptable. Well, it makes them backend starters in the long run even if they do get decent results at the moment.

 

If you adjust that strikeout ratio to the majors, you probably get a Blaine Boyer and that's being generous. 

 

He's going to fall out of a lot of top 100 lists if this continues. He got a free pass last year because he was just getting used to professional baseball but if he doesn't get swings and misses in the low minors, hes doomed.

[70charger]

 

Stewart is trash. Even when he pitches well, he doesn't get Ks. If only he can rebound his ERA a bit so TR can sell him to some dumb organization for a quality player.

 

What team do you scout for?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mildy concerning? Dude is striking out 4 per 9. To put that into context, Gibson and Buerhle are striking that many out in the majors and that's almost unacceptable. Well, it makes them backend starters in the long run even if they do get decent results at the moment.

 

If you adjust that strikeout ratio to the majors, you probably get a Blaine Boyer and that's being generous.

 

He's going to fall out of a lot of top 100 lists if this continues. He got a free pass last year because he was just getting used to professional baseball but if he doesn't get swings and misses in the low minors, hes doomed.

38 innings at a higher level of competition than he's ever pitched before. The guy is pitching in Ft Myers and isn't old enough to drink legally.

 

"Mildly concerned" is the correct position to take here.

[curt1965]

Stewart is trash. Even when he pitches well, he doesn't get Ks. If only he can rebound his ERA a bit so TR can sell him to some dumb organization for a quality player.

Please tell us how you really feel about him..........

[drock2190]

 

38 innings at a higher level of competition than he's ever pitched before. The guy is pitching in Ft Myers and isn't old enough to drink legally.

"Mildly concerned" is the correct position to take here.

 

He was supposed to take a step forward this year in strikeouts, not backwards. It would be different if he had a high ERA and good perpherials to back him, so then we could say he was getting unlucky.

 

Small sample size but big enough to know he doesn't have the pitches to be a front line starter, maybe not enough to be back of a rotation filler.

Edited May 31, 2015 by drock2190

[markos]

 

38 innings at a higher level of competition than he's ever pitched before. The guy is pitching in Ft Myers and isn't old enough to drink legally.

"Mildly concerned" is the correct position to take here.

I disagree. I think there are a lot of reasons to be very concerned. 

 

I looked at the top HS pitchers drafted from 2001-2013 (40ish pitchers) during their first full season of pro ball. The average K%  for that group was 24%. Stewart's K% was only 17.22% last year, the 6th lowest. The only pitchers with lower K% were:

Chris Gruler (14.29%)

Matt Hobgood (14.60%)

Trey Ball (15.11%)

Colt Griffin (15.31%)

Chris Volstad (15.57%)

 

The only other names that were under 20%:

Zach Lee (19.44%)

Nick Travieso (17.53%)

 

It is completely unprecedented for a pitcher drafted as highly as Stewart to struggle to get strikeouts as much as Stewart has and become anything more than a backend starter. Maybe he will be the exception, but right now he looks a lot more like the next Zach Lee than the next Jose Fernandez. 

 

And this isn't taking into account his injury issues. The strongest predictor of future injuries is past injury history, and he has already been hurt a lot. I am very concerned that he won't be able to hold up over a full season. I understand that he has a lot of good excuses to explain away his poor performance thus far. But until he starts missing bats consistently, I'm going to stay pessimistic.

[Bill Tanner]

It seemed to me that Kohl Stewart was having a difficult time locating his off speed pitches, and the Clearwater Threshers were sitting on his fastball from the start.  Stadium radar had Kohl's fastball at 91-94.  There were a lot of very hard hit line drives.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I disagree. I think there are a lot of reasons to be very concerned. 

 

I looked at the top HS pitchers drafted from 2001-2013 (40ish pitchers) during their first full season of pro ball. The average K%  for that group was 24%. Stewart's K% was only 17.22% last year, the 6th lowest. The only pitchers with lower K% were:

Chris Gruler (14.29%)

Matt Hobgood (14.60%)

Trey Ball (15.11%)

Colt Griffin (15.31%)

Chris Volstad (15.57%)

 

The only other names that were under 20%:

Zach Lee (19.44%)

Nick Travieso (17.53%)

 

It is completely unprecedented for a pitcher drafted as highly as Stewart to struggle to get strikeouts as much as Stewart has and become anything more than a backend starter. Maybe he will be the exception, but right now he looks a lot more like the next Zach Lee than the next Jose Fernandez. 

 

And this isn't taking into account his injury issues. The strongest predictor of future injuries is past injury history, and he has already been hurt a lot. I am very concerned that he won't be able to hold up over a full season. I understand that he has a lot of good excuses to explain away his poor performance thus far. But until he starts missing bats consistently, I'm going to stay pessimistic.

Nice analysis, if not exactly comforting.

 

Who were the top performers on that K rate list? Just curious.

[drivlikejehu]

Stewart's health issues could be at least somewhat responsible for his struggles. But still, he's 63rd out of 66 FSL pitchers with 30 or more IP in K%. And he didn't strike anyone out last year either. 

 

At this point, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of him being a bust. It is what it is.

[nicksaviking]

Uh... Okay. I guess almost every baseball analyst on the planet must be completely wrong about Kohl.

His K rate is mildly concerning but the guy has loads of talent.

I'd never call a player, or probably anyone other than a Nazi child molester "trash", but I'm more than a little concerned about that K rate. There's not much precedent for pitchers significantly increasing their K rate in the higher minors and at the MLB. That's a figure that tends to decrease if anything. If things don't change by the end of the year, I'll probably be close to writing him off.

 

I take that back. There is some precedent for increasing K numbers, but those guys all seem to be crafty, soft-tossing, control pitchers, usually lefties, who we tend to label as AAAA junkballers. That doesn't seem to describe Stewart and if it did, he wouldn't be a prospect any more than Matt Albers was a prospect.

Edited May 31, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm well aware of the hurdles facing Stewart and his K rate. It's possible, maybe even likely, that he doesn't overcome those hurdles and fails to be an impact at the major league level.

 

But people are really overreacting in this thread. Stewart isn't a typical prospect.

 

- He's 20 years old in A+ ball and has all of 38 innings under his belt.

- He never dedicated himself fully to pitching until he was drafted in 2013 and didn't really get a taste of professional baseball until 2014 (uh... that's last season).

- The Twins had him on a limited pitch selection most, if not all, of last season.

- I have no idea what pitches he's throwing right now and what frequency he's throwing them.

- In July of last season, BA had Stewart's fastball touching 98 mph.

- He made just seven starts in the second half of 2014. He has basically pitched one full MiLB season at this point.

 

Stewart is still in the developmental phase of his professional career. He could be as many as five years away from Minnesota and still break into the league as a 25 year old (aka. the debut age of Trevor May and Kyle Gibson). He's pitching against hitters who are a huge step up from anything he's seen in the past.

 

If Stewart is struggling in July and August of this year, then my concern will elevate quite a bit... But right now? No. It's way too early to be so knee-jerk reactionary about 38 innings.

 

MiLB is so much more than looking at box scores. The scouts who have actually watched Stewart pitch are still very high on the kid. Does everyone down on Stewart think those scouts and analysts don't look at box scores?

 

This is what John Sickels had to say in November of last year about Stewart:

 

Borderline B+ 2014 first-rounder had a pretty good year in the Midwest League, although his velocity fluctuated, and he ended the year with shoulder trouble. His grade is a half-step lower than last year but this is more a reflection of health uncertainty than any loss of ability. May be more of a workhorse type than a genuine ace but still an elite prospect overall. ETA: late 2018

 

[drivlikejehu]

I don't think it's an overreaction. Hitters in A-ball really aren't that good for the most part. Someone of Stewart's ability should be able to handle them better than he has. There's nothing special about the fact that he's 20 or played football in high school... most top high school athletes play multiple sports, nor is 20 especially young for a top prospect to be in the FSL. 

 

The fact he can't stay healthy is another huge negative, not something that should comfort us with respect to his struggles. 

 

As markos laid out, it is exceedingly rare for a pitcher to start out like Stewart and amount to anything. Young as he is, a pitcher that can't strike anyone out or stay healthy at age 20 is a massive longshot to have any kind of success in the Majors... 5% might be generous at this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As markos laid out, it is exceedingly rare for a pitcher to start out like Stewart and amount to anything. Young as he is, a pitcher that can't strike anyone out or stay healthy at age 20 is a massive longshot to have any kind of success in the Majors... 5% might be generous at this point.

5%? Oy. A 20 year old pitcher who, when healthy, can touch the high 90s has a 5% chance of success in the majors?

 

And we're basing this on his inability to miss bats for a partial development season where he was pitch-restricted and 38 innings of the following season? Seasons when he has struggled with injury concerns?

 

This thread has taken a turn straight into CrazyTown.

 

Stewart might be a permanent injury concern. He might never strike guys out. Those are real possibilities but I'll let the guy reach, oh I don't know... maybe 200 career innings before writing him off as an automatic bust or giving him a one out of twenty chance of success in major league baseball, especially when you read reports from people who have watched him pitch say things like "effortless delivery", "reaches high 90s", and "elite prospect".

[Seth Stohs]

Only thing I'm worried about with Stewart is his healthy. He's 20 in high-a. I'd like to see him stay healthy for a full year and see what he can do when he gets on a role. Most 20 year olds are either still in college or getting ready for a short-season season. Way too soon to give up on anyone.Or to start calling people names (not that that is ever OK).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Only thing I'm worried about with Stewart is his healthy. He's 20 in high-a. I'd like to see him stay healthy for a full year and see what he can do when he gets on a role. Most 20 year olds are either still in college or getting ready for a short-season season. Way too soon to give up on anyone.Or to start calling people names (not that that is ever OK).

I'm also most concerned about his health, particularly his rollercoaster fastball velocity.

 

The guy is on a strict pitch count and innings limit. I won't get too worked up about his results until those limits are removed and we get to see what Kohl can really do, if and when he gets healthy.

[markos]

 

Nice analysis, if not exactly comforting.

Who were the top performers on that K rate list? Just curious.

Pitchers with 30% or higher during their first season in Low-A:

Matt Cain (30%)

Cole Hamels (43%)

Scott Kazmir (35%)

John Danks (32%)

Clayton Kershaw (32%)

Madison Bumgarner (30%)

Shelby Miller (32%)

Dylan Bundy (40%)

Jose Fernandez (34%)

 

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

5%? Oy. A 20 year old pitcher who, when healthy, can touch the high 90s has a 5% chance of success in the majors?

 

And we're basing this on his inability to miss bats for a partial development season where he was pitch-restricted and 38 innings of the following season? Seasons when he has struggled with injury concerns?

 

This thread has taken a turn straight into CrazyTown.

 

Stewart might be a permanent injury concern. He might never strike guys out. Those are real possibilities but I'll let the guy reach, oh I don't know... maybe 200 career innings before writing him off as an automatic bust or giving him a one out of twenty chance of success in major league baseball, especially when you read reports from people who have watched him pitch say things like "effortless delivery", "reaches high 90s", and "elite prospect".

 

I know it seems really low at first, but I don't think its an unfair assessment. Even if he was healthy and pitching well, there would be a high level of risk just based on how often young pitchers get hurt and/or go off the rails.

 

Stewart still has all those future risks, except they are magnified by the fact he already has injury and performance problems. It is very, very rare for a pitcher to have both of those issues for an extended period of time in A-ball and then go on the MLB success. 

 

Maybe 5% is a little low because Stewart could wind up doing OK in the bullpen. But unless you can point me to prospects that had the same issues and turned into good MLB starters, I'm going to be skeptical.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Maybe 5% is a little low because Stewart could wind up doing OK in the bullpen. But unless you can point me to prospects that had the same issues and turned into good MLB starters, I'm going to be skeptical.

That clarification makes way more sense. Yeah, his chances of being a plus MLB starter seem to dip slightly by the month but if the guy can stay healthy and keeps his high 90s fastball, he should be a nice bullpen piece at the very least.

 

As I said earlier, his strikeout rate isn't nearly as concerning as his injury issues. The guy has been throwing a limited pitch selection, is on both a strict pitch count and innings limit, and hasn't come close to really unleashing on opposing hitters yet. If a guy isn't throwing his plus offspeed stuff - which Stewart absolutely has - his K rate is going to suffer badly and shouldn't be the determining factor of whether he's "succeeding" or not.

 

Kohl is still very much in a developmental period and that isn't shown in the box score. While I'm pretty dedicated to sabremetrics myself, it seems that some people forget that not everything is shown in a box score, particularly MiLB where we don't even have access to things like pitch selection and speed. As long as scouts and analysts stay bullish on Stewart, I'm going to temper my concern. By virtually every account you read anywhere by people who have watched the kid pitch, he has the stuff to miss bats.

 

If he gets through a full season without restrictions and continues to strike out four per nine, then it's probably time to start raising the big red flags.

[Sweetwater]

Keeps his "high 90's fastball"??

 

He doesn't have a high 90's fastball. Maybe it touched that last year for one inning after he had an extra cup of coffee that morning. By reports, he touches the mid-90's and sits in the low 90's. That's nothing special.

 

If you're not willing to bet against him yet, that's fine. But I am. Like others have said, he should be dominating A-ball hitters on raw talent alone. The guy was drafted top 5 overall, not in the 40th round. He just doesn't have it.

Edited June 1, 2015 by Sweetwater