Article: Quality Pitches The Key For Phil Hughes

[Parker Hageman]

The Minnesota Twins are at the top of the American League Central thanks to an unexpected surge in strong starting pitching. While some pitchers like Mike Pelfrey continue to defy expectations, starters like Phil Hughes has turned in an average performance up to this point.

 

There were no signs that Hughes’ 2014 season was driven by luck. He missed bats, he limited walks and, thanks to a roomier ballpark, reduced the number of home runs. Still, with a historically good strikeout-to-walk ratio and a career-best home run-to-fly ball rate, there was room for things to go the other way but a solid foundation existed to build upon. The Twins felt the same way and offered him a contract extension this past offseason.

 

After 10 starts this season, Hughes has not been the same starter he was in 2014.His expected performance indicator, xFIP, is almost one full run higher than last year, jiving with his ERA, which is also one run higher this season than it was a year ago. The catalyst has been a decline in strikeouts and a sharp climb in the number of home runs allowed. On the surface, Hughes is not doing much different than he did the previous season -- constantly in the zone, throwing first pitch strikes like his life depends on it, etc -- but a deeper review of PitchF/X data shows that there is a slight contrast between his first season with the Twins and this one.

 

One of those small changes is that he has started to use a two-seam fastball more in lieu of the four-seam variety.

 

“I have thrown a lot more [two-seamers] probably because I am trying to find something else to go to until I get my fastball back to where it needs to be,” Hughes acknowledged. “I'm trying to make some adjustments on the fly.”

 

“It seems like I haven't been able to go in with my four-seamer to lefties as effectively so I figure the best alternative to that is my two-seamer down and away and I've gotten quite a few ground balls with it,” Hughes explained as the impetus for the heater swap. “As the season picks up and my arm strength gets a little better and I find my four-seam fastball a little bit more hopefully that will be something I can go to more.”

 

Hughes said that he found when he turned to the four-seamer this year to hit the glove-side of the zone, the ball has drifted back over the plate.

 

http://i.imgur.com/GNmXJm1.gif

 

“I don't think the velocity has been all that different but just trying to get that late ride that I get, being able to command it in and keep it in to lefties as opposed to where it is running back over the plate a little bit more.”

 

Velocity certainly has not been the problem. Sure it is down a tick according to Fangraphs.com’s PitchF/X date but the increase in two-seamers would account for the slight downturn for Hughes, which are typically thrown with less velocity than the four-seamer. And control has not been the problem either as evident by the few walks issued. His real enemy has been command -- getting the pitch do what he wants it to do once it is out of his hand. He can hit a strike zone, it is hitting the small sections within the zone that matters.

 

While Hughes maintains a miniscule walk rate and has a lower batting average on balls that don’t leave the playing surface, it is the long ball which has been been his detriment. After allowing 16 in 209.2 innings in 2014 he’s surrendered 12 in 64.2 innings this year. He is outpacing all of his other seasons for home runs allowed, a considerable surprise after he left the hitter’s haven in New York for the more balanced play of Target Field.

 

It’s not just the fastball that has been a factor in the inflated home run totals, his cutter has not been up to the same grade as it was last year. Hughes developed the cutter in 2014 as another pitch after using a big slider and changeup in New York. The cutter acts like a fastball but has late movement down and glove-side run which resulted in 79 strikeouts, many of which were looking. Hitters see what appears to be a fastball that is heading off the plate but darts back over at the last second.

 

“It comes out like a fastball,” said catcher Kurt Suzuki on what made Hughes’ cutter such a good pitch. “I don't know if he does anything different but from my side is that it just looks like a fastball and it just has that late cut. That’s what makes pitchers so tough is when pitches come out looking just like a fastball and just moves at the last second.”

 

http://i.imgur.com/iTWOCC4.gif

 

When on, it has been a plus-plus pitch for Hughes.

 

“It’s more being able to locate it exactly where I want to,” Hughes said about his cutter this year. “It kind of comes and goes in spurts. I know in Seattle, it was automatic for me to go out there with it. And it other games I've been constantly missing a tiny bit. The more I try to go away, I'll try to make the adjustment and it will run back over the plate a little bit more.”

 

Missing a little bit, like he did to Dustin Pedroia in his most recent start, has resulted in some long flights.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ikw7QlI.gif

 

Another element of his game, his plus-curveball, has not been the same either. In 2014 hitters missed on a quarter of their swings. This season, however, hitters are missing on less than 10 percent. Hughes says splitting his nail has played a role early in the season. In the handful of starts in which his nail actually split, it was “extremely painful” to continue to try to throw his knuckle-curve but has since had that nail heal.

 

“I feel like I can throw my curveball confidently and it has been something I needed to incorporate more but for whatever reason I haven't done it,” Hughes said. “So hopefully the curveball is something that makes its way into my pitch sequences more often because I feel like I can really use that pitch to get guys off my fastball.”

 

True to his word, Hughes has been spinning more curves in his arsenal since the beginning of May. In his five April starts he mixed it in 6% of the time but has increased that to 20% in his five May outings. His biggest reasoning for adding in more was to keep hitters from attacking his first-pitch fastball.

 

“I've tried to throw some first-pitch curveballs to get guys into a count where I can dictate the at-bat instead of guys trying to sell out for the first-pitch fastball,” Hughes said as he noticed hitters swinging out of their cleats and realized something needed to change. “I think it was [Rays outfielder Kevin] Kiermaier the other day swung at the first pitch of the game and it was above his head. Guys are really selling out for first-pitch fastballs. And good for them -- that's a good game plan especially for a guy who throws a lot of fastballs, usually the best you are going to see is the first in the count. I've just got to stay one pitch ahead.”

 

So if hitters are just swinging out of their shoes, why not just start the at-bat with a fastball well out of the strike zone occasionally to keep them honest?

 

“That's not something you necessarily want to do unless a guy is just absolutely selling out for a fastball they usually see the ball coming out of your hand before they make a decision at whether they want to swing at it. I can't just throw an intentional ball and hope they swing, it's more about throwing the quality pitch where I'm on the corners I'll take my chances. When I've gotten burned, it's been on pitches that guys have sold out for and they haven't been good location pitches. That's something I have to be better with.”

 

Fewer missed bats in general has been an issue for Hughes as well. After posting on of his best swinging strikes seasons, he now is one of the bottom 10 qualified pitchers when it comes to making hitters whiff. On two-strike counts, he has turned to his fastball more over his curveball or cutter which he favored in that situation heavily last year.

 

Hughes relied on a four-seamer from hell last year. It lived up in the zone and feasted on hitters’ souls. Four-seam fastballs, while not able to rise because of the laws of physics, stay on the same plane and can battle gravity to give hitters the perception that they are rising. When located up in the zone with the type of velocity that Hughes can generate, it can led to empty swings or foul balls. On the other hand two-seamers by nature are sinking fastballs. They reside down in the zone and are geared towards contact; where it is located depends on how damaging that contact can be. The high fastball also expanded the zone a hitter needed to cover with his swing. With a two-seamer, cutter and curveball all heading toward the lower third of the zone, it helps remove some of the guess work.

 

Hughes said he understands that and is working toward getting back to that part of his game.

 

“Obviously with my two-seamer I want to be down in the zone but I feel like I haven't been able to effectively live up in the zone with my four-seamer as much as I have been in the past,” Hughes said of his body of work during strikeout situations. “Again, small sample size and I feel like I'm not really in a groove right now but hopefully when I start getting on a roll, you will start to see more riding four-seamers up in the zone and then getting some two-seamers down if I have to but my bread-and-butter is living up and that something I've always done but right now I've gotten burned a few times on pitches that I've tried to go up on the corners that I've just left over the plate. As my confidence with my four-seamer starts to pick up, you'll see more of those up in the zone.”

 

Staying ahead of the competition is what makes good pitchers great, Hughes understands this. He never intended to rest on his laurels which was one of the reasons he explored using changeups more during spring training. While there is an emphasis placed on the change from the staff, Hughes said he feels the pitch is at a point where it is his fourth-best and doesn’t want to live and die by it, reserving it for low-risk situations.

 

“It's an adjustment but that's what you do constantly in this game. Hitters are getting all these reports and info just like we are and obviously trying to exploit a weakness. I just gotta stay one step ahead of it.”

 

It cannot be stressed enough that pitching -- and in the big picture, baseball as a whole -- is organic. There are adjustments and adaptations needed every season, every start, every inning, and even every pitch. With a few adjustments, Hughes believes he will finish the year closer to where he was a year ago.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Thanks Parker. This is kind of the elephant in the room. Hughes seems confident he can regain last year's level of performance, and I really hope I can.

[Parker Hageman]

Hughes seems confident he can regain last year's level of performance, and I really hope I can.

 

 

He doesn't seem too far off. It's not like he has an injury or drop in velocity or anything. He is missing the feel on two of his better pitches. Sometimes it takes a few more starts to get that down. His first 10 starts last year were pretty comparable to what he is doing now. He caught fire after that.

 

[Willihammer]

His finish looks a little weaker on those two pitches compared to the one from last year. You can see it with his glove hand, it tucks and pulls all the way past his hip in that 2014 pitch, but in the two from this year he keeps it more out front. Maybe he's a little preoccupied with getting into an optimal fielding position?

[Hrbowski]

The key for any pitcher is quality pitches. When I'm throwing my breaking stuff I need a good fastball for my curves to be effective, and you can be throwing high nineties, but have an ineffective breaking pitch, so the hitter has an easy time recognizing and catching up. You need all of your pitches to be strong for one of them to work consistently.

[COtwin]

He says that he hasn't been able to get his 4 seamer up enough and he is leaving them down in the zone. My impression is that he is missing on pitches that should be below the strike zone and his four seamer is staying right down the middle. Seems like what he did wrong with Pedroia is what he is consistently struggling

with. Why throw a 4seam fastball low anyway? Seems like you want your 2 seamer to appear in the lower part and then drop to the dirt. Thoughts Parker?

[Parker Hageman]

Why throw a 4seam fastball low anyway? Seems like you want your 2 seamer to appear in the lower part and then drop to the dirt. Thoughts Parker?

 

 

He's getting a little more horizontal run with the four-seamer which likely means he might not be driving behind the pitch at release as well as he did last year. That's a feel aspect to pitching. 

 

I honestly don't know why he's trying to throw down with his fastball at all. If it is the 2-seamer, those you generally want to have down in the zone. His certainly does not have the drop like Pelfrey. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/iAVcMwX.gif

[jimbo92107]

He's not finishing his follow-through. He's abbreviating his finish by not bending over enough at the waist, and his pitching hand is barely finishing past his ribs, much less whipping past his lower leg, where it belongs.

 

On the middle clip, the so-called "cutter," look how he hops off his landing foot at the end of his motion. So much for putting side spin on the ball, he just floated his hand around it, barely getting enough RPM's to create a couple inches of bend.

 

The drill I'd do with Hughes is simple: After every pitch, roll him a quick grounder. One to the left, one to the right, a bunt, a pop... Make him finish on balance and in position to field, which just so happens to be a good follow through, too.

 

I know, Hughes has an upright, stand-up style. Problem is, if your right elbow doesn't finish outside your left knee, where's the waypoint to help with consistency? Maybe he can find it with more of those shortstop drills, so he can locate his natural arm slot. Otherwise, he may need a lot more practice fielding rockets in his direction. Right now, he's throwing awfully flat stuff.

[Parker Hageman]

On the middle clip, the so-called "cutter," look how he hops off his landing foot at the end of his motion. So much for putting side spin on the ball, he just floated his hand around it, barely getting enough RPM's to create a couple inches of bend.

 

Respect the information and thoughts but that middle clip is a well executed cutter with very good spin. It may give the impression of a lower rotation because of the slow video GIF but it has a high spin rate. The "hop" wasn't something a part of his regular mechanics, either:

 

http://i.imgur.com/RlbxTQU.gif

 

To me, the arm extension isn't really a problem/issue overall. As you can see from this clip, the hand finishes in a very comparable spot as last year. To the bigger critique about his mechanics -- Hughes had made some adjustments heading into last season (credited Rick Anderson a lot of those) and one of those was to finish higher to maintain consistency (here you will see the Yankees model was a bit more haphazard with his finish as he was taught to drop-and-drive -- http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/on-phil-hughes-and-regression-r3303?st=25#commentsStart). When you suggest he is cutting off his motion, it usually has been his lower half that he has truncated. I would like to see a stronger finish in that regard. 

[Linus]

Pretty obvious that Phil misses Rick Anderson. He was the one that straightened out his pitch selection.

[nicksaviking]

Another great article Parker.

 

His fastball is down a full MPH.  That's not always a big deal, but perhaps it is in Phil's case.  He doesn't have a changeup, instead his off speed pitch is his curve, which as actually UP a MPH.

 

There's still a sizable difference between the two pitches though, and since the curve breaks across so many planes, it probably isn't as crucial to have a great velocity differential as it is the changeup.

 

Hughes also is trowing his cutter less this year, 15.7% down from last year's 20.7%.  

 

These changes might be small, but I don't think it's out of the question that they may have some impact on his results.

[HitInAPinch]

IMHO:  I don't think the lack quality pitches is the issue.  The problem is there's too many quality pitches and quality MLB hitters know that.  They know they can depend on Hughes being in the strikezone on a consistent basis and can hack away.  His available pitches aren't good enough to get away with that for a 2nd year.  He needs to start brushing more hitters back off the plate.

[Parker Hageman]

IMHO:I don't think the lack quality pitches is the issue.The problem is there's too many quality pitches and quality MLB hitters know that.

 

 

Quality pitches does not mean "in the strike zone". Quality pitches means hitting the right spots in the strike zone. 

 

[h2oface]

Did you notice if Hughes is throwing more strikes on 0-2 and 1-2 counts? It seems to me like he is, but I didn't really pay attention last year. He seems to be serving up meat on counts that a guy with his stuff shouldn't be in the zone, much less in the middle of it.

[Parker Hageman]

Did you notice if Hughes is throwing more strikes on 0-2 and 1-2 counts? It seems to me like he is, but I didn't really pay attention last year.

 

 

He is favoring the fastball in two-strike counts more than he did last year. In two-strike situations last year, opponents hit .190 and it is up to .231 this year. In just 0-2 counts, he's gone from .185 to .276.