Article: What Can We Expect From the #6 Pick

[Seth Stohs]

As we continue to review information as the 2015 MLB Draft approaches, I thought it would be interesting to look back at players selected with the sixth overall pick. That is the pick that the Minnesota Twins will make on Monday, June 8.

 

So often, we look at the draft and think that, especially with a high first-round pick, the team has to get it right. The team has to find a big league star.

 

The reality is that the draft is a complete crap shoot and it is nearly impossible to predict which players will become big leaguers, much less perennial All Stars.I looked at all of the first-round draft picks going all the way back to the beginning. 1965 was the first year of the amateur draft. I lumped all of the first-round picks together and ran some fun pivot tables. Some of the results are interesting, even surprising.

 

First, let’s take a look the Average WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the top 12 players selected each year. Admittedly, there is no perfect way of making the data mean a lot. The sample size is just too small. There have been 50 drafts, but the data is incomplete for anyone who continues to play. So, be sure to take this information with a grain of salt.

 

Pick / Avg WAR

1 / 40.8

2 / 35.5

3 / 48.4

4 / 44.6

5 / 38.6

6 / 56.7

7 / 37.1

8 / 49.2

9 / 28.8

10 / 34.5

11 / 26.3

12 / 32.0

 

 

The data on this chart shows that the #6 pick has proven to be the best over the history of the MLB Draft. At 56.7 WAR, the #6 spot is 7.5 WAR ahead of the next highest position, the #8 spot.

 

Now, the #6 spot has produced some of the best baseball players in history.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates took an outfielder from Arizona State with the sixth pick of the 1985 MLB Draft. Barry Bonds turned into one of the best hitters of all time. He posted 162.4 WAR.
• The Milwaukee Brewers drafted a shortstop out of a high school in Tampa Bay. Gary Sheffield was one of the most feared hitters in baseball during his playing days. He posted a career WAR of 60.2.
• In 1992, the New York Yankees took a tall, skinny shortstop out of a Michigan high school with the sixth pick. Derek Jeter became the face of Major League Baseball for almost two decades. He posted a career WAR of 71.8.

Jeter will most likely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Bonds is the all time home run leader and should have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. And for similar reasons, despite over 500 home runs and an OPS over .900, Sheffield was not, but should have been, a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

 

There is a second tier of players that were also taken with the sixth overall pick in an MLB Draft.

 

Zack Greinke was the sixth overall pick out of high school in 2002. He was at 42.0 WAR coming into this season. That is just ahead of Andy Van Slyke (41.2 WAR) who was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 1979. Kevin McReynolds (29.9) was the top pick of the Padres in 1981. John Mayberry (24.7) was the Astros top pick in 1967. The Cardinals selected Terry Kennedy (21.5) with the sixth overall pick in 1977. Spike Owen (12.5) was the Mariners first round pick in 1982. Former Twins outfielder Ken Landreaux (10.4) was the Angels first round pick in 1976. Former Rays outfielder Rocco Baldelli (10.2) was the sixth pick in the 2000 draft. If not for his injuries, his numbers could have been greater.

 

Of 50 sixth overall picks in the MLB draft, only those 11 players have posted a WAR of 10 for their career.

 

To be fair, there are players selected with the sixth overall pick in recent years who are likely to surpass 10 WAR in the next few years. That includes Washington Nationals infielder Anthony Rendon and New York Mets pitcher Zack Wheeler.

 

The last three #6 picks were Albert Almora (Cubs 2012), Colin Moran (Marlins 2013), and Alex Jackson (Mariners 2014). Obviously they have yet to play in the big leagues and could alter these numbers.

 

Of the 50 players taken with the sixth overall pick, 13 players have a negative WAR or 0 WAR. Another 14 of them never (or have not yet) played in the big leagues. Twins fans will likely remember the 1998 draft. The Minnesota Twins took a left-handed starting pitcher. He was very successful in college baseball while playing at powerhouse Arizona State University. He was said to have great mechanics and had worked with his father all the way up. Ryan Mills never pitched in a big league game.

 

The draft is one way for an organization to accumulate talent. Having a high draft pick certainly should increase the odds of getting a more talented, elite-level prospect. But it doesn’t guarantee anything. We would all love for whoever the Twins pick this year to become the next Barry Bonds, Gary Sheffield or Derek Jeter. We should also be thrilled if that player becomes the next Zack Greinke or Andy Van Slyke.

 

The important thing to remember is that it’s possible to get a Brian Dozier in the eighth round or a Kent Hrbek in the 17^th round.

 

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[RedBull34]

I dare say that Bonds is skewing the whole scale.

[Seth Stohs]

I think that is a fair statement.

[Vanimal46]

I just took a quick glance at the 1998 draft results, as Ryan Mills was brought up in the article. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but there were a couple of interesting names taken after #6... Carlos Pena went #10 to the Rangers, our old friend Adam Everett went #12 to the Red Sox, Jeff Weaver #14 to the Tigers, and C.C. Sabathia #20 to the Indians just to name a couple.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bonds had a WAR of 162.

 

I just can't even.

[sane]

Mike Piazza, Dodgers, 1988

62nd round,

1,390th pick overall

bWAR: 59.4

[Seth Stohs]

 

Bonds had a WAR of 162.

 

I just can't even.

 

As a corner outfielder! He's the best hitter I've ever seen, and I have a hard time believing any hitter has ever been better.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd guess we can expect a guy that plays in the majors, with a 30% chance they are a legit every day player.

 

As for the last part about Dozier and Hrbek......those are exceptions, not rules. If you consistently miss on your first round picks, you are in trouble.

[Ex-Iowegian]

I've always interpreted WAR to kind of be applied over the course of a season.. Simplistic, maybe, but in that light.... 162?

Good lord.

[bird]

 

I'd guess we can expect a guy that plays in the majors, with a 30% chance they are a legit every day player.

 

As for the last part about Dozier and Hrbek......those are exceptions, not rules. If you consistently miss on your first round picks, you are in trouble.

 

 

I agree wholeheartedly. It's a good thing the Twins have consistently hit on their first round picks now for a decade or so.

[jimbo92107]

 

I dare say that Bonds is skewing the whole scale.

Better yet, steroids is skewing the whole scale.

[Kwak]

The use of a Derek Jeter photo as an example of what we could expect with a #6 selection is a glaring example of bait and switch advertising.

 

Barry Bonds didn't always use steroids--and he put up some truly impressive numbers before he used them.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I agree wholeheartedly. It's a good thing the Twins have consistently hit on their first round picks now for a decade or so.

 

Really? Parmelee, Gutierrez, Wimmers, Michael... not to mention Hicks, who is still a question mark.

[Bob Sacamento]

Despite Ryan being one of the last few old school GM's still left in the game (a disiciple of Andy MacPhail), Terry Ryan has hit on quite a few first rounders  with the philosophy of drafting the most athletic guy - (Cuddyer, Mauer, Span, Plouffe, Perkins, Garza, Revere), with the jury still out on Buxton, Berrios, Kohl Stewart, and Nick Gordon.   The following first picks for Minnesota were during Terry Ryan's sabbatical - Hicks, Gutieriez, Hunter, Gibson, Bashore, Wimmers, Michael, Harrison and Boyd.

 

While watching the Perfect Game East Coast showcase with Terry Ryan last weekend it was obvious that he loves the extremely athletic players.  I know many "insiders" pooh-pooh it but Daz Cameron seems like a really good fit even with the rumor of a well above slot bonus.  My guess is that he signs for slot as he doesn't prefer to go to college as long as it's Top 10 money even with him wanting top 5 money. 

 

In the past, I've advocated Vandy starting pitcher Walker Buehler here as he has the weapons and pitchability plus signing at slot, outside of his forearm strain early on he's been solid.  While his rotation mate Carson Fulmer looks wicked at times but also is a projected reliever due to his mechanics/delivery because it's full effort and not ideal.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Bob Sacamento

[tobi0040]

I saw the headline and looked at drafts back to 2003.  Interestingly, the 7th pick has been much better than the 6th over that period. 

 

Kershaw, Bailey, Harvey, and Bradley were all 7th, while Wheeler was the only stud picked 6th.  It is a total crap shoot. Case and point, I have seen the write up from Dodger scouts that said Kershaw's upside is that of a #2 starter and his breaking balls are a "work in progress"

[Mike Sixel]

The GM does not make the pick, does he? Isn't the that head scout's job?

[drjim]

 

The GM does not make the pick, does he? Isn't the that head scout's job?

 

It depends. If it's a poor pick and you want to criticize the GM, it was probably the GM who made the selection. If it was a good pick and you want to criticize the GM, it was probably the scouting director. It if was a good pick and you want to praise the GM, it was the GM. And if it was a bad pick but you still want to praise the GM, it was the scouting director.

[tobi0040]

 

It depends. If it's a poor pick and you want to criticize the GM, it was probably the GM who made the selection. If it was a good pick and you want to criticize the GM, it was probably the scouting director. It if was a good pick and you want to praise the GM, it was the GM. And if it was a bad pick but you still want to praise the GM, it was the scouting director.

 

Absolutely, with with a little victory has a 1,000 fathers and failure is an orphan sprinkled on top.