Article: How Is Mike Pelfrey Doing This?

[Parker Hageman]

I warned everyone in April that this might be a real possibility.

 

At that time, just several starts into the 2015 season, the analysis was smothered with caution sauce. Statistically, there were indicators abounding that things were going to go south quickly, however there seemed to be something different about this Mike Pelfrey. This Mike Pelfrey was peppering the zone, possessed improved velocity, induced weak contact, had improved his swing-and-miss capabilities, and added a second pitch.For various reasons Pelfrey’s ability to sustain this success was questioned. Despite the swinging strikes, he really didn’t strike anyone out. He put a ton of baserunners on but managed to wiggle out of jams by the skin of his teeth. Surely the wheels were ready to come off. And when the Detroit Tigers pounded him for 10 hits over four innings a few short weeks later, it felt as if the foreboding avalanche of regression would leave no survivors.

 

But then something unexpected happened: He didn’t regress. Mike Pelfrey went back out and threw 13 innings of 10 hit, two-run ball over his next two starts. Instead, he concluded Tuesday night’s victory over the Boston Red Sox tied with Edinson Volquez with a 2.77 ERA -- the 10th best in the American League. It is especially crazy considering his expected performance figures peg him to be around 4.50.

 

How has he continued to outperform performance indicators like xFIP? Nine starts is by no means an ample sample but the traits that Pelfrey demonstrated in April have rolled over into May.

 

In addition to the ERA (which should not be used in gauging the quality of a pitcher’s performance so stop using it), Pelfrey has managed to keep opposing hitters away from hard contact. According to ESPN/trumedia, he maintains a well-hit average of .103 -- this time 12th best in all of baseball. BaseballSavant.com’s batted ball velocity more or less confirms this, saying Pelfrey’s batted ball velocity of 87 mph is 18th among all qualified pitchers. Tons of contact but the vast majority of it is weak.

 

Pelfrey’s inclusion of the splitter has elevated his arsenal to a new level. It is lethal against left-handed hitters and has kept right-handers honest to some degree. Watch the movement it showed in his last start against Pittsburgh. This was a nasty pitch that incited a silly swing from the Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez:

 

http://i.imgur.com/sRa4T8a.gif

 

This season’s splitter has a lack of spin and that provides drag and drop. When thrown with similar arm speed as a fastball it can produce some head-shaking swings.

 

Pelfrey’s current .202 batting average against lefties is 10th lowest in baseball by a right-hander -- company that includes pitching elite like Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray -- and that development undoubted coincides with his use of the splitter.

 

The other reason he has been able to achieve weak contact on a consistent basis is location and movement on his fastball. Over the previous two years with the Twins, Pelfrey’s low-90s fastball was mostly seen hovering over the middle of the plate. Now he is hitting the low corners of the zone with solid movement:

 

http://i.imgur.com/iAVcMwX.gif

 

Download attachment: Fastball Location.png

The results have been his highest ground ball rate on the pitch since 2010 because hitters are unable to barrel it up.

 

While this may feel like an Arrested Development’s Ann moment, Mike Pelfrey has been good this season (“Him?”) and if he continues to twirl pitches the way he has while receiving competent infield defense behind him, he just might maintain throughout this surprising season. At the same time Pelfrey has outpaced his strand rate, benefited from the lowest batting average on balls in play of his career all while posting the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career -- there is room for regression.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Nice article.  I like that he has added a new pitch and has some success with it.  Hopefully, it'll continue and he wins comeback player of the year.

[Lefty]

 Pretty happy for the guy.  As much as I wanted to see him go for the last two years, I'm glad he's having the success that he is.  It had to be hard coming back from TJ and not being able to throw like he was used to.  Not only that, but he's been ridden extremely hard by 99% of Twins critics out there, me included.  Good for him, keep it up.  Also you've gotta respect his optimism and confidence, he hasn't been one to hang his head and make excuses.

[Shane Wahl]

"Him?" indeed. You should always have an AD reference.

 

I cannot believe how good Pelfrey has been.

[drivlikejehu]

Pelfrey has thrown a splitter for years - he used it with similar frequency way back in 2010. He throws it with less velocity now (despite his fastball velocity being the same), which may be helping it work better as a change-up.

 

His swinging strike rate remains low, as it has been throughout his career. That limits his ability to consistently shut down opponents. One thing that might help him keep it up would be replacing Santana with Escobar. 

 

I remain in favor of trading him if possible when Santana is ready.

[twinsnorth49]

I was really impressed with the movement on his fastball last night, I couldn't believe I was watching the same guy.

 

Pelf seems like a good egg, I've given him a lot of guff but I'm pretty happy for him........or maybe I'm just happy.

 

Either way, watching him pitch this year hasn't at all resembled the torture test it's been in the past.

[Parker Hageman]

"Pelfrey has thrown a splitter for years - he used it with similar frequency way back in 2010. He throws it with less velocity now (despite his fastball velocity being the same), which may be helping it work better as a change-up."

 

Yes. He threw a split-finger fastball with the Mets and on rare occasions with the Twins but this version has far less rotation, more movement and behaves differently. For all intents and purposes it is a new pitch.

[twinsnorth49]

He hasn't thrown his split this frequently since 2010, in fact currently it's almost exactly the same % as that season. I'm not sure the velocity is all that different than before, back then it was a very effective change for him. One wonders how much his elbow troubles may have come from it and now that he is healthy we're seeing him use it like he used to. 

 

I wonder if the lack of rotation on it is a  byproduct of his elbow problems, causing him to adopt a different grip and release.

[Blake]

2 bizarre things happened last night.

 

1. The Twins won a low scoring game.

2. The pitcher on the mound at the time was Mike Pelfrey.

 

Huh? 

 

It is all well and good to pound out a lot of runs. However, at some point, the Twins need someone on the staff to step up and go toe to toe with the likes of a Clay Buckholtz.

 

We've not seen that happen for a while. I, for one, plan to savor last night.

[blindeke]

Prediction: The Twins will give him an extension and he'll turn back into a pumpkin.

[Trov]

This just shows how much a new pitching coach helped this team.  Allen came in and told every starter that they were going to learn a change up of some kind.  For Pelfrey it was the splitter.  I think coach of the year right now is Allen.

[jimbo92107]

What a difference in Mike Pelfrey's life from just a couple months ago. Everybody except him thought he was bound for bullpen duty for the rest of his career. He'd spent a couple years working his way back from Tommy John surgery, trying to get his body as strong as possible and his elbow to work right again. Even his "last chance" as a starter came because the Twins were forced into it by Ervin Santana's suspension and Nolasco's stint on the DL.

 

Now, his command looks great, and his stuff is filthy. Combined with an improved Twins defense, Pelfrey is winning games again. His heater is averaging around 93mph with good movement, and his splitter is embarrassing good hitters.

 

Are we seeing the best of Mike Pelfrey? A couple aspects of this question intrigue me. First, his command. Obviously, every pitcher knows that you're supposed to avoid the middle of the strike zone, but it seems that only a few really master the art of keeping the ball around the edges. Pelfrey's command during this stretch has been almost impeccable. Why? Is it that years of mechanics drills have finally borne fruit, or is it just that his elbow is finally healthy after years of getting worse? Or is it some combination of the two, or some other factor?

 

Second, his stuff. In that first clip, you can see that Pedro Alvarez recognizes the initial trajectory of the pitch as it comes out of Pelfrey's hand, which indicates it will be right down the middle of the zone. Only after it's halfway to the plate does the splitter's action take it down and left (out of the zone), inducing an embarrassing whiff. I think the word "filthy" comes not just from the degree of movement, but from the deception. It starts out looking like a sweet, down-the middle BP fastball, then disappears under your bat. Notice also that the ball doesn't duck down until it's over half-way to the plate. By that time, Alvarez has decided to swing at the spot where he expects the ball to be...but then it ain't there. Like a magic trick, his eye has been fooled.

 

Did Pelfrey's stuff always have this late movement? I mean, earlier in his career, before his elbow problems. If so, you'd expect him to have an ERA that would put him out of Minnesota's price range. I think he's improved.

 

I have a feeling we're looking at a guy who's had a lot of time to think about and refine his game. What he's doing today doesn't look like an accident, but rather the result of lots of work, and thought, about the most effective way to get guys out. I'm seeing a savvy pitcher with great command, and plenty of gas left in the tank. Mike Pelfrey looks like a damn fine pitcher.

[old nurse]

 Not comparing the two, but Greg Maddux through his prime almost always had an ERA lower than his xfip. Just as rare as a year Carl Pavano was healthy, there are pitchers who induce weak contact.  Enjoy Pelf's health while it lasts.

[DaveTMpls]

The first handful of starts, Pelfrey was Houdini.  His ERA was completely at odds with how much trouble he was getting into.  The last few starts, Pelfrey has been pretty good.  Last night was the best I've seen him pitch.  He actually should have had a shutout for 7 innings.  Against Boston.  The mind boggles.

[DocBauer]

Never had anything against Pelfrey personally. Always heard he was a good guy and teammate. And I respect the hell out of guys who want to play and genuinely want to earn their paycheck. But the entire mantra of "but when healthy...and look what he did during this stretch..." was simply turning in to "look at the history and track record."

 

I was...oh, not excited, but curious...as to what he could maybe do out of the pen for us. Slow delivery, high hard and straight might work for an inning or two. That is simply not what we are seeing out of him. If I didn't know better, I'd swear there was an invasion of the body snatchers going on. That first pitch on the top of the page is what an 88 MPH knuckle ball would look like if you could throw such a thing.

 

I don't recall names, but I am reminded of 20 years or so ago when Pitching coach Roger Craig had great success teaching the split finger and changing some careers. I don't know if this is Allen tweaking Pelfrey's delivery, approach or head, or if Pelfrey is just growing in experience, (learning hard lessons to be sure) and now fully healthy and feeling great he's tossing hard and care-free. I sure am enjoying it though. I'm almost excited when I see his name listed as the starting pitcher.

[curt1965]

The pitch to Ramirez was f-ing nasty! There isn't a hitter on God's a Green Earth that could have made contact to that pitch!

[twinsnorth49]

 

The pitch to Ramirez was f-ing nasty! There isn't a hitter on God's a Green Earth that could have made contact to that pitch!

Agreed, and likely precious few who could even lay off it.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Count me as another who is surprised and delighted at the Pelfrey/Nolasco magic show.

 

I thought I would be resigned all season every time these guys got a turn in the rotation. I know it's early, but I really have confidence in this team (no post-season predictions at this point).

 

Nolasco still worries me aplenty, but I'm gaining confidence in both just the same.

 

Have a starting rotation that is pretty damn good makes a world of difference.

 

Just feeling a little sorry for Tommy Milone.

[DaveW]

Not implying Pelfrey is all about the money etc

 

But heading into a Free agency year I'm sure he realized that a good strong year as a starter prob nets him another 10-15 million (total) over the following season, while pitching poorly and being a DFA candidate nets him a minor league contract and maybe 1 million in 2016. Never underestimate a make or break season for a guy and in a game of inches, maybe this motivation helped him just a little bit?

Edited May 28, 2015 by SpiritofVodkaDave

[Oldgoat_MN]

Hey! Nobody mentioned that Pelf is hitting 1.000!

 

He's tied for the lead in MLB (probably with some other AL pitcher).

 

Sure you can call it a small sample size, but remember, he's had not one at bat, but TWO!

[joemama]

 

This just shows how much a new pitching coach helped this team.  Allen came in and told every starter that they were going to learn a change up of some kind.  For Pelfrey it was the splitter.  I think coach of the year right now is Allen.

My thoughts exactly. All of these guys have shown talent at various times in their careers. Harnessing talent is another story...throwing and pitching are two different things. When nearly everyone on the staff is showing improvement, a ton of credit has to go to Allen.

[stringer bell]

I didn't think Pelfrey looked that sharp early on Tuesday.  He wasn't missing many bats and the Sox hit some balls solidly.  As the game wore on, his secondary pitches got a bit sharper and then, with his pitch count up, he breezed through the sixth and seventh. 

 

What does all of that say about his pitching this year?  Well, I think he's got enough stuff to face even the most powerful lineups, but the command has to be there.  He can't throw his fastball middle-middle and expect weak contact.  The increased use of the split-finger makes all his pitches more effective.  He is going to get a lot of balls hit on the ground and turning them into the maximum number of outs is important.  Check Pelfrey's numbers next to Gibson's.  They are very similar.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The pitch to Ramirez was f-ing nasty! There isn't a hitter on God's a Green Earth that could have made contact to that pitch!

Vlad Guerrero in his prime. Dude was a cartoon character with that swing.

[hosskartrite]

Hopefully, Pelfry can sustain this level of success until the trade deadline. That would do wonders in helping the organization return at least something on a 2 1/2 year investment. He will be very attractive with an expiring contact and less than three million owed

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hopefully, Pelfry can sustain this level of success until the trade deadline. That would do wonders in helping the organization return at least something on a 2 1/2 year investment. He will be very attractive with an expiring contact and less than three million owed

"Very attractive" in that someone might take him off our hands and pay his remaining salary, but at this point, it's doubtful anyone would surrender much in the way of a meaningful prospect to rent Pelfrey for 2 months.  Much like how the Dodgers gave up three guys for Nolasco two years ago, all 3 of which were DFA'd within a year, I think.  If we're anywhere near contention, and Pelfrey is still managing decent results, he will probably be more useful to us in August and September than as deadline trade bait.

[hosskartrite]

 Pelfry is 12th in the AL in ERA. If he sustains that there is no reason to not recoup at something. We have Milone, Rogers, Duffy, and Berrios as rotation depth even with Meyer flaming out like he has this year

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins can recoup value from Pelfrey by letting him help them win ball games in 2015.

[formerly33]

 

Prediction: The Twins will give him an extension and he'll turn back into a pumpkin.

A pumpkin with a wicked splitter.

[Blake]

 

The Twins can recoup value from Pelfrey by letting him help them win ball games in 2015.

If Pelfrey continues to perform, he will earn his two year contract in 1 year. 

[JB_Iowa]

Souhan had an article on Pelfrey today that ties in nicely with this thread:

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-pelfrey-displaying-that-look-of-an-ace/306434991/

 

I thought the origin of his splitter was interesting:

 

Even last year, Pelfrey felt numbness in his fingers and “didn’t know where the heck the ball was going.”

 

He began to find more life in his pitches while throwing during the winter. During spring training, Pelfrey asked new bullpen coach Eddie Guardado to show him his proprietary grip.

 

“He looked at my grip and said, ‘Man, that will never work,’ ” Pelfrey said. “I looked at his grip and said, ‘Man, that will never work.’ ”

 

Pelfrey fiddled with Guardado’s recommendation and suddenly had a change-of-speed pitch to complement his mid-90s fastball and sharp slider.

 

“That splitter has been so big for me,” he said.