KLAW on Berrios

[drjim]

 

Berrios is actually 21.

Adam Walker has not played multiple levels.

Max Kepler has not played multiple levels  (always ticketed to AA this year, had 6 "rehab"-type games in A+)

Nick Gordon has not played multiple levels.

Kohl Stewart played two levels of Rookie League in 2013, not sure if this counts for "multiple levels".

 

Terry Ryan on Monday told reporters that Buxton, Sano and Berrios are not ready for the Twins, and made it sound like he meant that not only were none of the three ready for a June call-up, but that none were probably ready for a September call-up- which translates to possibly-  "See ya next summer, laddies".  I'm pretty sure that there are a host of other teams that would take a different approach with three Top 25 guys who look like they can break out with a continued stretch of utter dominance at any moment.

 

Smooth move waiting until 1 am to post that Berrios is "actually" 21.

 

As for your second paragraph, good for Ryan. No GM should say that he plans on a player in AA, even an elite prospect tearing it up, being ready or helping the major league team this season.

[Steven Buhr]

Isn't it cool that Ryan, Steil, et al, hold their cards so close to the vest? If they openly and frankly told the media/fans what they really felt about their prospects and exactly what their true expectations and plans for each were, we'd have a whole lot less to talk about!

 

[jokin]

 

There's a whole lot of conjecture and not a lot of fact in that post, jokin. We have absolutely no idea what kind of timetable - if any - the Twins have for Sano or Buxton. Both players got off to rocky starts and have turned it around in May. That means we have one pretty bad month and one very good month for both players. The Twins are probably playing it by ear and seeing what happens. They're certainly not going to publicly play a hand before they've made a decision and even if they've already made a decision, they have no reason to tell anyone about it. They gain nothing by giving the media a timetable on a prospect and quite a bit to lose if things don't go as planned.

 

While I acknowledged some conjecture on my part based on public utterances and the proverbial tea leaves involved, and in addition, we do have past history to guide us.... ie,  Rosario got pushed to AAA, and then promoted, despite not doing particularly well at either AA or AAA.... indications in the off-season and ST suggested that he was in line to be fast-tracked...  whereas, in recent years, others have dominated and had their promotions put off for extended periods of time, or never... with the latest creative excuses applied accordingly.  Neither Ryan or Antony have given any similar indication as Rosario's, that any of the Twins best prospects are in the plans to be contributors this season.

 

So now I'm confused, many tell us that Terry Ryan is a straight shooter, while you just illustrated what many others tell us- Terry is always playing a clever, tight-fisted poker hand and doing his best to keep the media in the dark.  Which is it?

[gunnarthor]

 

Berrios is actually 21.

Adam Walker has not played multiple levels.

Max Kepler has not played multiple levels  (always ticketed to AA this year, had 6 "rehab"-type games in A+)

Nick Gordon has not played multiple levels.

Kohl Stewart played two levels of Rookie League in 2013, not sure if this counts for "multiple levels".

 

Terry Ryan on Monday told reporters that Buxton, Sano and Berrios are not ready for the Twins, and made it sound like he meant that not only were none of the three ready for a June call-up, but that none were probably ready for a September call-up- which translates to possibly-  "See ya next summer, laddies".  I'm pretty sure that there are a host of other teams that would take a different approach with three Top 25 guys who look like they can break out with a continued stretch of utter dominance at any moment.

Berrios was 20 when I wrote it but yeah, this is his age 21 season.  As to the others - Gordon skipped the GCL so that was the "skip" (from callis - "The Twins thought enough of Gordon and his makeup to skip him over the Gulf Coast League and send him to the Appy League last summer, so he's already on a faster track than many high school draftees entering the 2015 season."), Kepler did AFL, etc.  I could have named others that have skipped levels including Hu, Gonsalves, Arcia etc but the point remains, the Twins aren't slow on promotions when the players are ready.

 

As to Ryan's comments, this is Ryan.  He says this all the time.  And I'm not sure if a lot of other teams would call up guys who still are learning in the minors.  The big name guys that have come up this season have absolutely dominated (Bryant, Russell, Thor).  Even Houston, who has arguably the best SS prospect in baseball and whose regular short stop is injured, is keeping him in AAA for awhile.  None of our three guys is (today) forcing the issue yet, although Sano is getting there.  Give them some time and don't add to it by setting some arbitrary date.  When the starting rotation needs a new starter, Berrios will be discussed.  When Sano and Buxton have shaken off the rust and adapted, they'll get promoted.

[gunnarthor]

 

While I acknowledged some conjecture on my part based on public utterances and the proverbial tea leaves involved, and in addition, we do have past history to guide us.  Rosario got pushed to AAA, and then promoted, despite not doing particularly well at either AA or AAA.... indications in the off-season and ST suggested that he was in line to be fast-tracked...  whereas, in recent years, others have dominated and had their promotions put off for extended periods of time... with the latest creative excuses applied accordingly.

 

So now I'm confused, many tell us that Terry Ryan is a straight shooter, while many others tell us Terry is always playing a clever, tight-fisted poker hand.  Which is it?

It can be both.  And Rosario's promotion (and Santana's last year) suggest that the Twins don't just consider stats when promoting (or not promoting) players.

[jokin]

 

It can be both.  And Rosario's promotion (and Santana's last year) suggest that the Twins don't just consider stats when promoting (or not promoting) players.

 

Precisely my point in response to Brock.  These guys are the best the franchise has to offer, and with the best chance to help this season.  So that only leaves other considerations, possibly involving the financial aspects of such a move?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

So now I'm confused, many tell us that Terry Ryan is a straight shooter, while you just illustrated what many others tell us- Terry is always playing a clever, tight-fisted poker hand and doing his best to keep the media in the dark.  Which is it?

Both. He's usually a straight shooter when he talks about past performance or weaknesses on the team. When it comes to upcoming moves, he almost never shows his hand. He'll lay praise on some players for performance but rarely reveals future plans for anyone.

[jokin]

 

  I could have named others that have skipped levels including Hu, Gonsalves, Arcia etc but the point remains, the Twins aren't slow on promotions when the players are ready.

 

 

 

Therein lies the problem... and the point... "Readiness" is such a subjective term, the Twins are replete with examples of slowing that process down.  Don't take my word for it, it's virtually a given understanding of how the franchise operates according to practically any professional sports writer who has examined the data.

[jokin]

 

Both. He's usually a straight shooter when he talks about past performance or weaknesses on the team. When it comes to upcoming moves, he almost never shows his hand. He'll lay praise on some players for performance but rarely reveals future plans for anyone.

 

Except Rosario.  And previously Bernier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Precisely my point in response to Brock.  These guys are the best the franchise has to offer, and with the best chance to help this season.  So that only leaves other considerations, possibly involving the financial aspects of such a move?

I'm not sure why you're trying to put so much stock in such a vague comment. We had no idea Polanco was going to get a call last season. I don't recall any of us thinking Santana was going to get a call, either. Vargas was called up directly from AA and I don't remember hearing much about that beforehand, either. Rosario was praised in ST but it was still somewhat surprising to see him up before Hicks, even though Aaron got the call shortly afterward.

[jokin]

 

  Give them some time and don't add to it by setting some arbitrary date.  When the starting rotation needs a new starter, Berrios will be discussed.  When Sano and Buxton have shaken off the rust and adapted, they'll get promoted.

 

The exact same types of things were said last year, and it never happened for one, and for the other way past the Arb 2 date.  And in point of fact, many other teams do promote their best talents early, if only to get a look to determine or confirm readiness levels.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Except Rosario.  And previously Bernier.

I don't recall hearing actual plans for Rosario other than "he was good in Spring Training, he impressed us".

 

And Bernier is a 26th man and Terry Ryan knows that. What Ryan says about him is largely irrelevant.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And in point of fact, many other teams do promote their best talents early, if only to get a look to determine or confirm readiness levels.

In the past three years, we've seen Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Polanco, Hicks, and Rosario promoted to Minnesota before their 24th birthday. Pinto was promoted as a 24 year old.

 

Three of those guys skipped AAA to earn their first promotion to Minnesota.

 

The Twins have promoted a lot of guys to test their readiness level in recent years.

[jokin]

 

I'm not sure why you're trying to put so much stock in such a vague comment. We had no idea Polanco was going to get a call last season. I don't recall any of us thinking Santana was going to get a call, either. Vargas was called up directly from AA and I don't remember hearing much about that beforehand, either. Rosario was praised in ST but it was still somewhat surprising to see him up before Hicks, even though Aaron got the call shortly afterward.

 

Oh come on.  Both Ryan and Antony haven't been vague at all.. they've both made pretty pointed comments recently, flatly stating that the top prospects aren't ready, and in turn, how much they have loved what Rosario has been doing.  Polanco got a call-up when the Twins ran out of other options on the 40-man roster.  I was one of many that strongly suggested starting out Santana as the starting SS out of ST in 2014- the Twins were forced to call him up after bungling the offseason and completely mis-assessing both their SS and OF situations.  I was among many, including some in the media who also suggested that the Twins call up Vargas in May 2014 when the Twins were temporarily short a bat and he was mashing in AA.  Regarding Hicks, he's still not getting much, if any praise from either Ryan or Antony.

[jokin]

 

In the past three years, we've seen Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Polanco, Hicks, and Rosario promoted to Minnesota before their 24th birthday. Pinto was promoted as a 24 year old.

 

Three of those guys skipped AAA to earn their first promotion to Minnesota.

 

The Twins have promoted a lot of guys to test their readiness level in recent years.

 

Wrong on Vargas, he turned 24 last August 1.  

 

Polanco and Santana were emergency situations due to injury or in-house bungling.

 

Hicks's milb track record suggested he was mis-handled, in 2013 they were the living illustration on how NOT to test a prospect.

 

Pinto, really?

 

I've been supportive all along for how they've handled Rosario.

 

 

And I notice you have no pitchers in your list....  in the Berrios thread...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Oh come on.  Both Ryan and Antony haven't been vague at all.. they've both made pretty pointed comments recently, flatly stating that the top prospects aren't ready, and in turn, how much they have loved what Rosario has been doing.  Polanco got a call-up when the Twins ran out of other options on the 40-man roster.  I was one of many that strongly suggested starting out Santana as the starting SS out of ST in 2014- the Twins were forced to call him up after bungling the offseason and completely mis-assessing both their SS and OF situations.  I was among many, including some in the media who also suggested that the Twins call up Vargas in May when the Twins were temporarily short a bat and he was mashing in AA.  Regarding Hicks, he's still not getting much, if any praise from either Ryan or Antony.

Congratulations on getting all those predictions right, I guess?

 

And don't "oh come on" me when you're the one presenting conjecture as fact. You're taking a "not ready yet" mid-May comment about a player in AA to mean they won't be up before September, if at all.

 

Maybe Ryan doesn't plan to call them up this season. Maybe he wants to make public statements to motivate the two players before a call-up. Maybe he doesn't want to put worrisome thoughts into Hicks and Rosario's heads and get them looking over their shoulders. Maybe he simply hasn't made a plan at all. Maybe his breakfast didn't set well with him that day.

 

Me? I'll wait until something actually happens.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Wrong on Vargas, he turned 24 last August 1. 

My mistake. Kennys was all of 24 years, 19 hours, and 10 minutes old when he made his MLB debut.

 

*blank stare*

 

If we're going to be so inanely technical about, I said "promoted before their 24th birthdays". That is a true statement.

 

*blank stare*

[jokin]

 

Congratulations on getting all those predictions right, I guess?

 

And don't "oh come on" me when you're the one presenting conjecture as fact. You're taking a "not ready yet" mid-May comment about a player in AA to mean they won't be up before September, if at all.

 

Maybe Ryan doesn't plan to call them up this season. Maybe he wants to make public statements to motivate the two players before a call-up. Maybe he doesn't want to put worrisome thoughts into Hicks and Rosario's heads and get them looking over their shoulders. Maybe he simply hasn't made a plan at all. Maybe his breakfast didn't set well with him that day.

 

Me? I'll wait until something actually happens.

 

Since when did i present conjecture as fact?  I couched every comment with proviso.

 

And I'm not looking for congratulations, just pointing out that I have not been alone on the TD forum and elsewhere that Terry Ryan's approach has gotten a lot of things wrong-  of course,  that's to be expected for such a tough job, but errors of omission can be more readily remedied by just being a bit more open-minded and less tight-fisted financially concerning promtions.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They are when my statement was *technically* correct - Vargas was promoted on July 31st - and when they're pointing out minutia and missing the larger point.

[drjim]

 

Therein lies the problem... and the point... "Readiness" is such a subjective term, the Twins are replete with examples of slowing that process down.  Don't take my word for it, it's virtually a given understanding of how the franchise operates according to practically any professional sports writer who has examined the data.

 

This is a strong statement. Are there actual examples of professional sports writers that have examined this data? Or examples of professional writers saying that the Twins are clearly slower than other franchises at promoting players.

 

Most of what I read from the national guys is that they promote guys too quickly, if anything.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This is a strong statement. Are there actual examples of professional sports writers that have examined this data? Or examples of professional writers saying that the Twins are clearly slower than other franchises at promoting players.

There was a study a few years ago that placed the Twins last in promotion speed, particularly with pitchers. Positional players were promoted more quickly.

 

Of course, there's a good chance that data was inaccurate because it didn't adjust for quality of prospect and the Twins were seriously lacking in quality prospects during that time. Bad players don't get promoted as quickly as good players.

 

With the influx of young guys coming to Minnesota over the past few years, I suspect that data looks somewhat different today. I understand some of the consternation over pitching promotion speed but ultimately, I think injury and performance has affected that more than anything else. Gibson received TJ surgery, May was injured right as it looked like he was going to get a promotion, Meyer has turned into a hot mess in multiple ways.

[Mike Sixel]

When they wait on guys, and they work out.....they are geniuses, maybe they messed up on Meyer by NOT promoting him. Of course, I don't buy that, but others post it all the time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

When they wait on guys, and they work out.....they are geniuses, maybe they messed up on Meyer by NOT promoting him. Of course, I don't buy that, but others post it all the time.

I don't buy it either but I understand some of the frustration. I wanted to see May and Meyer more last season.

 

But on the other hand, the Twins were rocking some of the youngest MiLB pitchers in their respective leagues last season so it's not as if they're dragging their feet with every single pitcher in the system. Berrios, Thorpe, and Stewart were cruising through the minors in 2014.

[drjim]

 

There was a study a few years ago that placed the Twins last in promotion speed, particularly with pitchers. Positional players were promoted more quickly.

 

Of course, there's a good chance that data was inaccurate because it didn't adjust for quality of prospect and the Twins were seriously lacking in quality prospects during that time. Bad players don't get promoted as quickly as good players.

 

With the influx of young guys coming to Minnesota over the past few years, I suspect that data looks somewhat different today. I understand some of the consternation over pitching promotion speed but ultimately, I think injury and performance has affected that more than anything else. Gibson received TJ surgery, May was injured right as it looked like he was going to get a promotion, Meyer has turned into a hot mess in multiple ways.

 

I would suspect lack of high ceiling guys would drive this result at this time and that this is relatively cyclical. Twins are probably on the conservative side but don't seem like outliers, or at least not enough to garner any comments from national guys. It really should only matter for the handful of high ceiling guys and the Twins are doing just fine, as recent evidence shows.

[Vanimal46]

Happy 21st Berrios! Hopefully by this time next year he will be 3-4 starts into his career with the Twins!

[jokin]

 

This is a strong statement. Are there actual examples of professional sports writers that have examined this data? Or examples of professional writers saying that the Twins are clearly slower than other franchises at promoting players.

 

Most of what I read from the national guys is that they promote guys too quickly, if anything.

 

Huh?  With the exception of Hicks, and possibly Arcia, what other examples could you possibly have?  

[jokin]

 

When they wait on guys, and they work out.....they are geniuses, maybe they messed up on Meyer by NOT promoting him. Of course, I don't buy that, but others post it all the time.

 

There's no way to know, or prove a point, on Meyer and how he would have done in 2014.  But the important point was, and is, they didn't even consider it, despite Gardy's public support for such a move.

[TRex]

 

 But the important point was, and is, they didn't even consider it, despite Gardy's public support for such a move.

<emphasis mine>

 

How do you know what all they consider?

[jokin]

 

<emphasis mine>

 

How do you know what all they consider?

 

 

Uhh, because they actually, and publicly, said what the plan was for Meyer?

[70charger]

 

Uhh, the entire counter-point argument was engaged based on whether the challenged point was fact-based or just speculation (and in the process had ignored my accompanying qualifiers to where I moved from fact to speculation), it's kind-of important that that argument supposedly based on facts and against the point being challenged, be entirely accurate, yes?

If you don't already see it, I won't be able to show it to you.