KLAW on Berrios

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Just another "Excuse of the Week"

 

More like Red Herring.  I highly doubt the Twins care more about the minor league playoff hopes than the majors, especially since most of these guys will get promoted to AAA anyways. 

 

Besides, I've heard on this forum over and over and over again that the team needs to build a winning culture.   Getting them used to a playoff run and encouraging that culture does have value, and as others pointed out, the extra 3 weeks isn't going to be a detriment to the player.

[jokin]

 

More like Red Herring.  I highly doubt the Twins care more about the minor league playoff hopes than the majors, especially since most of these guys will get promoted to AAA anyways. 

 

Besides, I've heard on this forum over and over and over again that the team needs to build a winning culture.   Getting them used to a playoff run and encouraging that culture does have value, and as others pointed out, the extra 3 weeks isn't going to be a detriment to the player.

 

Fact: The Twins in recent years are different about promotions than many other clubs, particularly pitchers- there has been a strong tendency to readily bring up scores of guys with virtually no long-term future as a major league pitcher, and slow-play their top prospects.   

 

Fact:  Hu and Gonsalves had better numbers but were by-passed in favor of pitchers with more seniority.  One such pitcher was shelled in his first AA appearance this week, just days after Hu had a strong performance in a spot start in AAA.

 

Fact:  Now that KLaw is on board, it's fairly universally recognized among the rating experts that Berrios is a top-flite prospect, with a potential elite ceiling and armed with at least two plus-pitches, possibly four.  The same can in no way be said is the case for the person promoted to AAA in his place- Duffey is a much lesser prospect, who is simply "taking his turn" up to AAA in the Twins promotion process.  

 

Fact:  The Twins management has a history of coming up with one novel reason and then yet another new and iimproved reason for slow-playing pitching prospect promotions.

[GMinTraining]

Fact: Now that KLaw is on board, it's fairly universally recognized among the rating experts that Berrios is a top-flite prospect, with a potential elite ceiling and armed with at least two plus-pitches, possibly four. The same can in no way be said is the case for the person promoted to AAA in his place- Duffey is a much lesser prospect, who is simply "taking his turn" upt to AAA in the Twins promotion process.

 

Fact: The Twins management has a history of coming up with one novel reason and then yet another new and iimprvoed reason for slow-playing pitching prospect promotions.

The manager for the Lookout just stated that Duffy was his best picture to date. You must have never seen Duffy pitch. He is strong with great pitch ability. He averages 9+Ks per/9 as well. What in his history tells you otherwise? His draft round? The Twins just shelled a Boston pitcher who has the second highest velocity in MLB. You have to know how to pitch too and Duffy as does Berrios can pitch. Duffy has earned every promotion he's earned and like Berrios was misdiagnosed by LAW, you have definitely misdiagnosed Duffy. IMO

[diehardtwinsfan]

First things first, would you rather the Twins not talk at all about the reasoning behind promotions?

 

Second, I don't have a problem with any of the promotions as they currently are.  The older guys have more urgency.  The team needs to figure out what they have in them.  That might be a few months of them in a worst case scenario flailing away at a higher level, but at that point, it makes it clear who to DFA as opposed to just skipping them.  Guys like Hurlbut and Duffy also deserved them, where guys like Gonsalves and Hu are still in the 'building arm strength' category even though they've done well.  It isn't life Duffey was horrible in AA.  He was quite good.  He's also improved his peripheral numbers with each promotion.  I'd give him a look.  I think he's more than a back of the rotation arm right now, and I think you do too.  What neither of us knows is exactly what type of arm he is.  He has mid 90s stuff and is striking out more than a batter per inning while minimizing the walks.  That's a good thing, and we all know this. 

 

But to address my original point, the idea that playoffs in the minors would surpass the major league team needs IS MOST DEFINITELY a  red herring.  You know this.  There's far more to a promotion than this.  The fact that Ryan makes it known publicly that this is part of it hardly makes it the sole reason, nor does it mean that the Twins don't care about their major league performance... but again, I think you already know it.  That's my point Jokin. 

[Thrylos]

 

Berrios has to be one of the first MiLB promotions when the Twins feel the time is right to start shuffling players up and down the minor league system. He's embarrassing hitters in the Southern League.

 

He really is fine where he is.  In some respect, there are likely better hitters in the SL than the IL (with those AAAA types) and I trust the Twins' coaching staff at AA more than at AAA, based on Meyers performance (among other indicators,) for one.

[bird]

 

so, the minor league playoffs are more important than the Twins' success? He couldn't really mean that, could he?

 

 

Of course he doesn't mean that, mike. He didn't say that either.

[bird]

 

My point is that I wasn't talking about Buxton.....I was using that as an example to ask if the Twins cared about the minor league playoffs more than the major league team.

 

 

Mike, you must know the answer to this question. I mean, how absurd would it be to compromise the success of your MLB team in favor of a minor league team? How absurd do you think the Twin's FO is? Criminy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Second, I don't have a problem with any of the promotions as they currently are.  The older guys have more urgency.  The team needs to figure out what they have in them.  

This is clearly the line of reasoning the Twins use, so there must be some validity to it. So we will agree to disagree ahead of time. But it makes some people's heads explode. Many teams appear to just promote the best talent without all the convoluted justifications. A lot has been written on how young Cardinals world series pitchers were, for example. 

 

Think about it: The Twins had a 90-loss team last year, yet it was still important for us to promote older guys like Kris Johnson and Yohan Pino... to confirm what we had in them. And we confirmed it. And now they're no longer in the organization. Meanwhile other guys like Meyer and May could have used those MLB innings. 

 

[kab21]

 

My point is that I wasn't talking about Buxton.....I was using that as an example to ask if the Twins cared about the minor league playoffs more than the major league team.

There is absolutely no indication that he would hold back a MLB promotion because of minor league playoffs.  It doesn't effect Buxton's MLB path if he spends another month in AA instead of going to AAA.  Same goes for Hu.  And Gonsalves.  And any other prospect. 

[Madre Dos]

 

It is behind the pay wall .....but he now ranks Berrios number 25 overall for prospects.

 

"....good enough for him to pitch in the majors......he has the potential to be a solid No. 2 starter."

Would that make him the youngest starter in the majors?

[gunnarthor]

Over the years there have become some ideas expressed too often that people think they are true and the "Twins don't promote" one is probably my least favorite. Berrios is 20 and in AA - the Twins moved him 3 levels last year and let him pitch in the WBC and have praised the ever loving **** out of that kid.  They freaking love Berrios.  Buxton, Sano, Stewart, Gordon, Walker, Kepler are just a few of the recent prospects who have played multiple levels in recent seasons. 

[bird]

 

This is clearly the line of reasoning the Twins use, so there must be some validity to it. So we will agree to disagree ahead of time. But it makes some people's heads explode. Many teams appear to just promote the best talent without all the convoluted justifications. A lot has been written on how young Cardinals world series pitchers were, for example. 

 

Think about it: The Twins had a 90-loss team last year, yet it was still important for us to promote older guys like Kris Johnson and Yohan Pino... to confirm what we had in them. And we confirmed it. And now they're no longer in the organization. Meanwhile other guys like Meyer and May could have used those MLB innings. 

 

Pino and Kris Johnson were not promoted for the purpose of confirming anything. Unlike the Cards, the Twins didn't have any ultra-elite pitching prospect ready for major league action. 

 

Now I'll sit back and wait for someone to once again promote a false narrative about how deserving of promotion May and Meyer were. A convoluted justification that ignores the extenuating facts regarding injuries and innings limits and out-of-whack mechanics that effected those two, let alone a very sound argument that those two would have had their heads handed to them at the time. 

 

As for Berrios, I predict he will be ready for Target Field in the eyes of us fans a half-year ahead of when his developers think he is, and they'll probably be right.

[nicksaviking]

 

As for Berrios, I predict he will be ready for Target Field in the eyes of us fans a half-year ahead of when his developers think he is, and they'll probably be right.

Probably, fans want the good stuff ASAP and we can be unreasonable some times. This year the team is winning, and there are obviously arguements to be made about not to screwing with the winning chemistry.

 

That wasn't the case the last four years. The whole team stunk, there was no reason a May, Meyer or Gibson couldn't have stunk with them while learning at the MLB level starting in May or June once losing a year of service time was no longer an issue or when the club was out of contention. Those were usually the same date.

[Vanimal46]

I am 100% bought in on the Berrios bandwagon. He is currently on the 40 man roster, correct? He has far surpassed Meyer as the first prospect in line for a promotion when a new starter is needed in the majors.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Over the years there have become some ideas expressed too often that people think they are true and the "Twins don't promote" one is probably my least favorite. Berrios is 20 and in AA - the Twins moved him 3 levels last year and let him pitch in the WBC and have praised the ever loving **** out of that kid.  They freaking love Berrios.  Buxton, Sano, Stewart, Gordon, Walker, Kepler are just a few of the recent prospects who have played multiple levels in recent seasons.

 

I generally agree but I don't think playing multiple levels in a single season is in any way unusual. The case of Meyer has certainly taken most of the oxygen from the promotion debate, for right or wrong. We needed a feel good story after the 2012 season. The front office hyped Meyer pretty good, and the media ran with it. The Meyer debate will fade when the Twins either contend again or a Berrios or May pitch well at MLB level. Fortunately both those things are happening in 2015.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Pino and Kris Johnson were not promoted for the purpose of confirming anything.

Then why were they?

[Mike Sixel]

There was a quote at the beginning saying they wait for promotions until after minor league all star games.....I asked a simple question if they were more worried about that than the majors, asking for clarification on the quote, and people jumped down my throat. It was a simple fn question people. Jeeze.

[Mike Sixel]

Clearly the lesson here is I should never start positive thread.again.

[Captain Hindsight]

So KLaw is finally conceding that a pitcher might be able to succeed in the MLB despite being only 6'0" tall? Not that these rankings have any merit, but this seems like a huge vote of confidence for Berrios, considering how stubborn Law is and that he had him 97th before the season and now 25th. The bandwagon is officially full, cannot wait to see Berrios in a Twins uniform.

[bird]

 

Then why were they?

 

Because they were deemed most likely to perform at some reasonably professional level. Last year, the choices were all bad, and these guys were the least bad as options in the opinion of the people with a vote on the matter in Rochester and in Minneapolis.

[lightfoot789]

 

Over the years there have become some ideas expressed too often that people think they are true and the "Twins don't promote" one is probably my least favorite. Berrios is 20 and in AA - the Twins moved him 3 levels last year and let him pitch in the WBC and have praised the ever loving **** out of that kid.  They freaking love Berrios.  Buxton, Sano, Stewart, Gordon, Walker, Kepler are just a few of the recent prospects who have played multiple levels in recent seasons. 

 

Not sure about Gordon, but Kepler and Walker have never been promoted mid season.  Kepler did get to play in AFL though.  The Twins are conservative with some and aggressive with others.  I think they like all their Top 30 prospects and will bring them up when they are ready to stay in the MLB more so than when they need a cup of coffee.  As far as mid season AA minor league moves - It all depends on whether they are truly in the plans for that September call up.  If not, they will stay in AA.

[drunksam]

I am 100% bought in on the Berrios bandwagon. He is currently on the 40 man roster, correct? He has far surpassed Meyer as the first prospect in line for a promotion when a new starter is needed in the majors.

He's not on the 40 and doesn't have to be for awhile.

[jokin]

 

The manager for the Lookout just stated that Duffy was his best picture to date. You must have never seen Duffy pitch. He is strong with great pitch ability. He averages 9+Ks per/9 as well. What in his history tells you otherwise? His draft round? The Twins just shelled a Boston pitcher who has the second highest velocity in MLB. You have to know how to pitch too and Duffy as does Berrios can pitch. Duffy has earned every promotion he's earned and like Berrios was misdiagnosed by LAW, you have definitely misdiagnosed Duffy. IMO

 

I hope you turn out to be right about Duffey, and Dougie was of course, factually correct about his performance at Chatty.  But he's a college reliever with a FB in the low 90s, who up until this year hasn't really been much of a strikeout pitcher.  Here's a pre-season evaluation from Gleeman:

 

 

Duffey has shown excellent control as a pro, walking just 1.7 batters per nine innings, but he's struggled to generate strikeouts. In fact, he barely has more strikeouts (196) in 259 innings as a pro starter than he had (189) in 153 innings as a college reliever. Duffey shut down right-handed hitters last season, but allowed an OPS that was 200 points higher versus lefties, suggesting that his off-speed stuff needs some work.

Duffey's low-90s fastball also limits his upside, but the Twins certainly value starters who pound the strike zone with mediocre raw stuff and occasionally those guys have decent runs of success.

 

I've only seen video of Duffey, and some of it looks impressive.  And it looks like going on 4 years now worth of arm strengthening starts against lesser competition has brought up his major league potential to innings-eating 4th/5th SP.  But his disturbing lack of Ks against LHB continues this year- K/9 5.96 vs lefties, while sporting a K/9 10.96 vs righties- that won't cut it at the major league level. 

 

Berrios is 3.5 years younger and is simply cut from a different cloth, a Top 25 prospect, with a much higher ceiling and a chance at franchise-changing impact.

[jokin]

 

Over the years there have become some ideas expressed too often that people think they are true and the "Twins don't promote" one is probably my least favorite. Berrios is 20 and in AA - the Twins moved him 3 levels last year and let him pitch in the WBC and have praised the ever loving **** out of that kid.  They freaking love Berrios.  Buxton, Sano, Stewart, Gordon, Walker, Kepler are just a few of the recent prospects who have played multiple levels in recent seasons. 

 

Berrios is actually 21.

Adam Walker has not played multiple levels.

Max Kepler has not played multiple levels  (always ticketed to AA this year, had 6 "rehab"-type games in A+)

Nick Gordon has not played multiple levels.

Kohl Stewart played two levels of Rookie League in 2013, not sure if this counts for "multiple levels".

 

Terry Ryan on Monday told reporters that Buxton, Sano and Berrios are not ready for the Twins, and made it sound like he meant that not only were none of the three ready for a June call-up, but that none were probably ready for a September call-up- which translates to possibly-  "See ya next summer, laddies".  I'm pretty sure that there are a host of other teams that would take a different approach with three Top 25 guys who look like they can break out with a continued stretch of utter dominance at any moment.

[jokin]

 

 

Pino and Kris Johnson were not promoted for the purpose of confirming anything. Unlike the Cards, the Twins didn't have any ultra-elite pitching prospect ready for major league action. 

 

 

 

Uhh, in any given year, few, if any teams have any "ultra-elite pitching prospects", but were the Twins top prospects ready in 2014?  Why, yes, yes they were.  I even have Gardy on my side on this one to vouch for one of them in ST 2014.  And Gibson was more than ready for months before he was finally promoted, the year previous, only to be passed over for at least 4 guys who are essentially out of baseball, or  at least out of the running for ever getting a major league spot.

[blairpaul715]

 

 

 

Terry Ryan on Monday told reporters that Buxton, Sano and Berrios are not ready for the Twins, and made it sound like he meant that not only were none of the three ready for a June call-up, but that none were probably ready for a September call-up- which translates to possibly-  "See ya next summer, laddies".  I'm pretty sure that there are a host of other teams that would take a different approach with three Top 25 guys who look like they can break out with a continued stretch of utter dominance at any moment.

I would guess this is ' Subject to change'.

[jokin]

 

I would guess this is ' Subject to change'.

 

I don't need to guess, but I sure HOPE this is subject to change...  but unfortunately,  I've been following the braintrust's public utterances and their promotions of late- they haven't indicated that the most likely potential game-changers are being expected to be of any significant help this year.

[70charger]

 

Fact: The Twins in recent years are different about promotions than many other clubs, particularly pitchers- there has been a strong tendency to readily bring up scores of guys with virtually no long-term future as a major league pitcher, and slow-play their top prospects.   

 

Fact:  Hu and Gonsalves had better numbers but were by-passed in favor of pitchers with more seniority.  One such pitcher was shelled in his first AA appearance this week, just days after Hu had a strong performance in a spot start in AAA.

 

Fact:  Now that KLaw is on board, it's fairly universally recognized among the rating experts that Berrios is a top-flite prospect, with a potential elite ceiling and armed with at least two plus-pitches, possibly four.  The same can in no way be said is the case for the person promoted to AAA in his place- Duffey is a much lesser prospect, who is simply "taking his turn" up to AAA in the Twins promotion process.  

 

Fact:  The Twins management has a history of coming up with one novel reason and then yet another new and iimproved reason for slow-playing pitching prospect promotions.

 

http://www.quickmeme.com/img/b5/b5b9f77b835e041b5ce0b20152851c57aa9c98c2ca3bb09b17d3f27ce96ff562.jpg

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's an example. An example, to discuss if they would be more worried about minor league playoffs than the major league team.

I think that's pretty obviously "no". Rochester is in first place and Ryan didn't hesitate to take both their centerfielders in a two week span.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Terry Ryan on Monday told reporters that Buxton, Sano and Berrios are not ready for the Twins, and made it sound like he meant that not only were none of the three ready for a June call-up, but that none were probably ready for a September call-up- which translates to possibly-  "See ya next summer, laddies". 

There's a whole lot of conjecture and not a lot of fact in that post, jokin. We have absolutely no idea what kind of timetable - if any - the Twins have for Sano or Buxton. Both players got off to rocky starts and have turned it around in May. That means we have one pretty bad month and one very good month for both players. The Twins are probably playing it by ear and seeing what happens. They're certainly not going to publicly play a hand before they've made a decision and even if they've already made a decision, they have no reason to tell anyone about it. They gain nothing by giving the media a timetable on a prospect and quite a bit to lose if things don't go as planned.