How many Lookouts have a chance to play in the MLB?  Probability?

 

 

 

Example:   Joe Mauer -  100%

 

D.J. Baxendale -

Jose Berrios -

Madison Boer -

Nick Burdi -

Dallas Gallant -

David Hurlbut -

Cole Johnson -

D.J. Johnson -

Zack Jones -

Greg Peavey -

Jake Reed -

Adrian Salcedo (suspended) - 

Tim Shibuya -

Alex Wimmers -

Carlos Paulino -

Jairo Rodriguez -

Stuart Turner -

Mike Gonzales -

Dalton Hicks -

Heiker Meneses -

Levi Michael - 

Jorge Polanco -

Miguel Sano - 

Stephen Wickens - 

Byron Buxton -

Travis Harrison -

Max Kepler -

Adam Brett Walker II -

Jorge Polanco - 100%

 

How many Lookouts have a chance to play in the MLB?  Probability?

 

 

 

Example:   Joe Mauer -  100%

 

D.J. Baxendale -1%

Jose Berrios - 50%

Madison Boer -3%

Nick Burdi - 30%

Dallas Gallant -1%

David Hurlbut -0

Cole Johnson -3%

D.J. Johnson -0

Zack Jones -5%

Greg Peavey -1%

Jake Reed -15%

Adrian Salcedo (suspended) - 10%

Tim Shibuya -1%

Alex Wimmers -3%

Carlos Paulino -0

Jairo Rodriguez -0

Stuart Turner -5%

Mike Gonzales -2%

Dalton Hicks -1%

Heiker Meneses -2%

Levi Michael - 3%

Jorge Polanco -Already made his ML debut

Miguel Sano - 99%

Stephen Wickens - 1%

Byron Buxton -99%

Travis Harrison -50%

Max Kepler -50%

Adam Brett Walker II -25%

 

What percent of AA players actually get a chance to play in a major league game?

I'll play. That's fun. (obviously these are all just guesses off the top of my head) I'm assuming you mean 'ever' as opposed to '2015,' right?

 

D.J. Baxendale - 20%
Jose Berrios - 99%
Madison Boer - 49%
Nick Burdi - 99%
Dallas Gallant - 29%
David Hurlbut - 22%
Cole Johnson - 27%
D.J. Johnson - 17%
Zack Jones - 95%
Greg Peavey - 39%
Jake Reed - 88%
Adrian Salcedo (suspended) - 18%
Tim Shibuya - 19%
Alex Wimmers - 55%
Carlos Paulino - 17%
Jairo Rodriguez - 2%
Stuart Turner - 96%
Mike Gonzales - 28%
Dalton Hicks - 36%
Heiker Meneses - 33%
Levi Michael - 53%
Jorge Polanco - 100%
Miguel Sano - 99.9%
Stephen Wickens - 15%
Byron Buxton - 99.99%
Travis Harrison - 91%
Max Kepler - 97%
Adam Brett Walker II - 96%

 

Seth, I like your answers better than mine, but I might have been on the low side, but I think you are on the high side, i was questioning my Berrios and Kepler percentage, but also i was looking at injury possibilities too that can derail a career.

This is actually a helpful idea. Thank you

Interesting! The only one that jumps out at me is Alex Wimmers.

Now that Chargois is with the Lookouts - I would say 75%

D.J. Baxendale - with another team
Jose Berrios - Twins Starter
Madison Boer - callup
Nick Burdi - Bullpen regular
Dallas Gallant - callup
David Hurlbut - callup
Cole Johnson - never
D.J. Johnson - never
Zack Jones - - bullpen regular
Greg Peavey - never
Jake Reed - bullpen regular
Adrian Salcedo (suspended) - with another team
Tim Shibuya - with another team
Alex Wimmers - never
Carlos Paulino - never
Jairo Rodriguez - backup catcher
Stuart Turner - starting catcher/dh
Mike Gonzales - callup for another team
Dalton Hicks - callup
Heiker Meneses - never
Levi Michael - backup
Jorge Polanco - regular on another team
Miguel Sano - regular at 3B or OF
Stephen Wickens - with another team
Byron Buxton - regular in center
Travis Harrison - backup
Max Kepler - backup
Adam Brett Walker II - bench

I think these will make it for an extended period. 

Jose Berrios - Nick Burdi - Zack Jones - Jake Reed - Jorge Polanco - Miguel Sano - Byron Buxton - Max Kepler. Maybe Stuart Turner. And JT Shagwa, who was just promoted and not included here.

 

Travis Harrison - backup
Max Kepler - backup
Adam Brett Walker II - bench

 

What's your difference between back up and bench?

 

Now that Chargois is with the Lookouts - I would say 75%

 

I'd agree with that percentage.

Almost certainly (90% or better) unless injured:

 

Berrios, Burdi, Polanco, Sano, Buxton, Harrison,

 

Probably (50% or better)

 

Kepler, Reed

 

Maybe (10-33%)

 

Turner, Walker, Michael, Baxendale

 

I think the rest don't have much of a chance

 

Almost certainly (90% or better) unless injured:

 

Berrios, Burdi, Polanco, Sano, Buxton, Harrison,

 

Probably (50% or better)

 

Kepler, Reed

 

Maybe (10-33%)

 

Turner, Walker, Michael, Baxendale

 

I think the rest don't have much of a chance

 

I know I posted my percentages above, but I just think Kepler adn Turner and Walker are almost givens. Kepler should be up in September. Turner is definitely, I"d put him probably higher than I did above. 

I don't know much but from the sounds of it I have to imagine that Stuart Turner is pretty close to a lock to make it to the show. At the minimum, it sounds like he can be Drew Butera.

 

I know I posted my percentages above, but I just think Kepler adn Turner and Walker are almost givens. Kepler should be up in September. Turner is definitely, I"d put him probably higher than I did above. 

 

Kepler up in September? Seems aggressive but certainly not impossible.

 

Kepler up in September? Seems aggressive but certainly not impossible.

 

Agressive? 

 

He's been on the roster for two years, and now he finally appears to be fully healthy.  Plus, he's been swinging the best bat in Chatty.

Don't forget their manager.

 

Agressive? 

 

He's been on the roster for two years, and now he finally appears to be fully healthy.  Plus, he's been swinging the best bat in Chatty.

 

This is his AA debut. 30 games and 120ish PA so far. Just doesn't scream mlb call up to me yet, but if he continues to rake I suppose it would be possible.

 

He is more raw than the typical prospect and will be a four option guy too, so there is some time. Always in such a hurry.

 

This is his AA debut. 30 games and 120ish PA so far. Just doesn't scream mlb call up to me yet, but if he continues to rake I suppose it would be possible.

 

He is more raw than the typical prospect and will be a four option guy too, so there is some time. Always in such a hurry.

 

He's not really raw any more. He was more raw than most, but he appears to have figured some things about and put his crazy tools into good practice. Obviously if he falls flat the rest of the season, they won't call him up, but I think if he performs well, he'll be a pretty easy choice.

I haven't watched him play, but statistically Kepler does not look ready for a call-up this year. His OPS is great of course due to his very high batting average, but his approach at the plate won't work - he is putting almost everything thrown at him in play.

 

MLB pitchers will exploit that and get him to make poor contact against hard-to-hit pitches. His BABIP is also somewhat unsustainable.

 

Right now I would expect him to hit .250 with no walks or power, which would be pretty bad for a corner outfielder. 

I love this kind of discussion, but I think that 'have a chance to play in the MLB' is setting the bar a little low.

 

Instead, how about giving your best guess (i.e. 50.1% chance) for best case career. I would put the categories as: D= doesn't make it at all, C= cup of coffee, A= makes arbitration, F= makes Free agency, and R= earns retirement benefits (i.e. 10 yrs), and HOF= Hall of Fame (obviously).

 

Example: Joe Mauer -  HOF

D.J. Baxendale - C
Jose Berrios - R
Madison Boer - D
Nick Burdi - A
Dallas Gallant - D
David Hurlbut - D
Cole Johnson - C
D.J. Johnson - D
Zack Jones - A
Greg Peavey - D
Jake Reed - A
Adrian Salcedo (suspended) - C
Tim Shibuya - D
Alex Wimmers - D
Carlos Paulino - D
Jairo Rodriguez - D
Stuart Turner - F
Mike Gonzales - D
Dalton Hicks - C
Heiker Meneses - D
Levi Michael - C
Jorge Polanco -  R
Miguel Sano - R
Stephen Wickens - D
Byron Buxton - H
Travis Harrison - A
Max Kepler - F
Adam Brett Walker II - A

Edited May 28, 201511 yr by TRex

 

MLB pitchers will exploit that and get him [Kepler]  to make poor contact against hard-to-hit pitches. His BABIP is also somewhat unsustainable.

 

Right now I would expect him to hit .250 with no walks or power, which would be pretty bad for a corner outfielder. 

 

Kepler is not walking much (6.0%) but he isn't striking out either (7.7%), which means he's seeing pitches. His isolated power is .209, which puts him in 6th place in the Southern League (100 PA min).

 

I agree with Seth. Kepler is already on the 40-man roster. If he keeps raking, he'll probably get a cup of coffee with the Twins this year.

 

I think Kepler's future is bright. He is barely 22 years old. At 6'4" and 210 pounds, he's sure to add, as Torii Hunter calls them, "man muscles" as he gets older.

I will just rank my top 5 by confidence level.

 

1. Buxton. Elite defense and speed alone would set a floor as an every day CF.  Those are skills he will have for the next 6-8 years.  He has to be near a lock.

 

2. Sano.  His bat will force a spot on this team.

 

3. Polanco.  The positiion is so thin around the league. He can play SS and has done nothing but hit, steals bases too.

 

4. Berrios.  Has good enough stuff to crack the top five starters. No doubt a reliever if that failed.  I think he is a #2.

 

5. Burdi - His stuff is too good.  Will play in the MLB for some time.

I will just rank my top 5 by confidence level.

 

1. Buxton. Elite defense and speed alone would set a floor as an every day CF.  Those are skills he will have for the next 6-8 years.  He has to be near a lock.

 

2. Sano.  His bat will force a spot on this team.

 

3. Polanco.  The position is so thin around the league. He can play SS and has done nothing but hit, steals bases too.  I think he edges out Santana.

 

4. Berrios.  Has good enough stuff to crack the top five starters. No doubt a reliever if that failed.  I think he is a #2.

 

5. Burdi - His stuff is too good.  Will play in the MLB for some time.

Edited May 28, 201511 yr by tobi0040

Keplers strike out to walk ratio is awesome.    Nothing about his approach screams he will get abused by MLB pitchers.    If his stat line suggest that, then I need to see the guy who screams success in the big leads.    Not star, but success.     10% of every team might be star quality.    That means 90% of the team are just good ball players.    Kepler is showing he can be a good ball player in the league if he continues what he's doing in AA.    At the least.

Edited May 28, 201511 yr by lightfoot789

 

Keplers strike out to walk ratio is awesome.    Nothing about his approach screams he will get abused by MLB pitchers.    If his stat line suggest that, then I need to see the guy who screams success in the big leads.    Not star, but success.     10% of every team might be star quality.    That means 90% of the team are just good ball players.    Kepler is showing he can be a good ball player in the league if he continues what he's doing in AA.    At the least.

 

The only way to avoid both walks and strikeouts is to put the ball in play early in the count. That means he is not being patient. 

 

I like Kepler a lot, I just think he will need some extended development time to put his skills together in a way that will work at the MLB level.

 

The only way to avoid both walks and strikeouts is to put the ball in play early in the count. That means he is not being patient. 

 

I like Kepler a lot, I just think he will need some extended development time to put his skills together in a way that will work at the MLB level.

While I understand the importance and predictive value of walk rate, it absolutely drives me crazy when someone complains about it for a player hitting .348! His OBP is still .385! Would you prefer if 13 of his 40 hits would be walks, so he could have a W rate of >16% and a W:SO of 2:1? I'll take the hits, and I would suggest that hitting over .330 with as many walks as strikeouts is a better predictor of future success for a 22 yr. old in Double-A than straight up walk rate (*). Finally, his career walk rate is 10%, which is acceptable for someone who has been younger than the (average) competition at every stop.

 

*: although if he keeps hitting .348 for the whole year, we probably won't be having this discussion!

 

I haven't watched him play, but statistically Kepler does not look ready for a call-up this year. His OPS is great of course due to his very high batting average, but his approach at the plate won't work - he is putting almost everything thrown at him in play.

 

MLB pitchers will exploit that and get him to make poor contact against hard-to-hit pitches. His BABIP is also somewhat unsustainable.

 

Right now I would expect him to hit .250 with no walks or power, which would be pretty bad for a corner outfielder. 

 

 

I didn't say he was ready to be a full-time big leaguer, just that I think he'll get a September call-up.