Gibson + Change-up + Confidence = Ace?

[jimbo92107]

If you saw Kyle Gibson's performance today (Sunday) against the White Sox, you saw an ace pitcher on the mound. I remember when the Twins drafted him, there were pundits saying he was a top-4 draft prospect, if not for his injured forearm. It's easy to see today what those pundits were talking about.

 

Gibson's delivery is one key element. He stands so tall, and his release point is high, so his pitches all have a pronounced downhill trajectory. However, since he was drafted Gibson has definitely refined his game. His balance as he raises his knee is much better, resulting in even less lateral motion of his neck as his weight shifts towards the plate. Because of this, his control is approaching pinpoint accuracy. In one at-bat I saw him throw a sinker, then a fastball to the low, outside corner. Then he threw a two-seamer which started towards the exact same spot, then slid six inches to the right. How the batter held up on that pitch, I have no idea.

 

Even more, Gibson has now started throwing more change-ups, and with his added precision, hitters look helpless. With his consistent release point, Gibson's change is very hard to distinguish from his heater, and batters are screwing themselves into the ground trying to hit it.

 

Last, Gibson today has a very calm, determined look that reminds me of Trevor Plouffe. He knows he belongs, he knows he can do this. What he's got today isn't mid-rotation stuff. Kyle Gibson looks like an ace.

[stringer bell]

I keep thinking that Gibson can become a Brandon Webb-type ace.  I don't think he'll ever put up huge K numbers, but he gets a really high percentage of ground balls, most of which are not struck well.

[drock2190]

Here we go again with the Ace talk....

 

We already got Hughes as an "Ace" so I find this hard to believe the Twins have 2 of them especially with the record setting stats they set the last few years (and not the good kind).

[Monkeypaws]

Was thinking of posting a similar thread - I remember when he slid to the Twins at 22, and it looked like a steal. Others might remember better, but as I recall he was projected as a front-line starter, perhaps not an ace, but a #2 for sure.

 

I agree with your points Jimbo, he looks confident and calm out there, and the stuff looks better because of it.

 

Here's hoping he repeats last year's trend and shaves 2 more point off his ERA this season.

[DaveW]

Gibson will never be an "ace" because he will never dominate a game like Harvey, King Felix rtc. However he has the makeup to be a solid #2, add that to Hughes who looks like a #2 and May who more and more looks like a regular contributer and you have a real nice rotation moving forward. Hopefully Berrios can make that step up as well, and you have Santana who is a solid middle of rotation guy as well.

 

I don't know if you need a true "ace" to win a title anymore. You just need enough guys who can pitch like #2's IMHO to keep you in games.

[Twodogs]

Madison Baumgartner

 

[spinowner]

 

Madison Baumgartner

Never heard of him. Now, Madison Bumgarner, him I've heard of.

[h2oface]

Ace. Twins' fans are desperate to have an Ace. They want it so bad some call Phil Hughes one, and now Gibson is considered. It takes more than a couple months to be an Ace. It takes more than a year of consistent lights out pitching to become an Ace. Two years........ OK, then you might have an Ace, it depends how he starts the 3rd year in a row. Right now, we have a hot pitcher that is improving. Phil Hughes....... still not an Ace. Kyle Gibson..... great game, Kyle.

[h2oface]

 

I don't know if you need a true "ace" to win a title anymore. You just need enough guys who can pitch like #2's IMHO to keep you in games.

I don't think you necessarily need an ace to win a division. But you will need one to advance in the playoffs if you get there. Better to have two, then, and that may not be enough. Just ask the Dodgers.

[scottz]

Madison Baumgartner

I think you mean Madrigal Boomgrader.

[Dantes929]

 

I don't think you necessarily need an ace to win a division. But you will need one to advance in the playoffs if you get there. Better to have two, then, and that may not be enough. Just ask the Dodgers.

People get too carried away with the whole ace thing and what defines it.   As you pointed out the Dodgers had more than one but didn't advance.   Giants have a borderline one and won it all.    Trevor May can out battle Sale in the playoffs just as easily as in the regular season.   Aces are better just like having Cabrerra in your lineup is better.   Doesn't mean Mustakas or Hosmer can't outperform him in the playoffs.    

[Dantes929]

I feel a little vindicated on my comment a while ago about Gibson.   He was considered lucky because his strikeout total was so low and I pointed out that maybe his success was real but his low strikeout total was unlucky.    Of course the vindication can easily disappear with two lousy outings.  Such is the cycle of baseball.

[Blackjack]

 

I think you mean Madrigal Boomgrader.

 

Tough crowd here! Guy throws in an extra letter and gets ridiculed. That will encourage him to post more!!!

[Craig Arko]

Tough crowd here! Guy throws in an extra letter and gets ridiculed. That will encourage him to post more!!!

Madrigal Boomgrader is a true team player.

[spinowner]

 

I don't think you necessarily need an ace to win a division. But you will need one to advance in the playoffs if you get there. Better to have two, then, and that may not be enough. Just ask the Dodgers.

Hypothetical example: Team A has 5 starters who each go 15-10. Team B has 2 starters who go 21-4 and 3 starters who go 11-14. Both teams are 75-50 as a staff, which will almost certainly get you into the postseason. During the regular season I'd say team A probably has a bit of an advantage, especially if they are in the same division and play each other 19 times. But in a 7-game postseason series I'd put my money on team B.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Madison Baumgartner

 

If you think a team's ace dominating them to a title is common, I encourage you to go research that.  You'll find it's simply not true.

 

In fact, Bumgarner is the exception, not the rule.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Gibson will never be an "ace" because he will never dominate a game like Harvey, King Felix rtc. However he has the makeup to be a solid #2, add that to Hughes who looks like a #2 and May who more and more looks like a regular contributer and you have a real nice rotation moving forward. Hopefully Berrios can make that step up as well, and you have Santana who is a solid middle of rotation guy as well.

I don't know if you need a true "ace" to win a title anymore. You just need enough guys who can pitch like #2's IMHO to keep you in games.

im beginning to agree with this philosophy. Look at the Royals last year. No true ace, but three very very good pitchers, and I think Gibson could be one of those three if he can continue to pitch like he has lately. If someday he can pitch in the playoffs like he did yesterday the Twins would have a good chance of winning

[DaveW]

im beginning to agree with this philosophy. Look at the Royals last year. No true ace, but three very very good pitchers, and I think Gibson could be one of those three if he can continue to pitch like he has lately. If someday he can pitch in the playoffs like he did yesterday the Twins would have a good chance of winning

In the playoffs it's hard to win, you need to whole team clicking well and a little bit of luck as well. The key IMO to the pitching is they keep you in games, then it's up to your hitters to put across 4-5 runs a game. The Twins had arguably the top pitcher in the game with Santana and they still managed to never win a series it seems like.

 

Ace or not, Gibson is pitching at an all star level, THAT is good enough for me.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Tough crowd here! Guy throws in an extra letter and gets ridiculed. That will encourage him to post more!!!

It's just TD tough love, it's a show of acceptance...........................and it was 2 extra letters.

 

 

Little known fact is that Baumgartner's brother Ken was a tough hombre on the ice....................and apparently a Met's fan. I think they have the same hair stylist.

 

 

http://icewars-review.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/1230.jpg

[Thrylos]

I like Gibson, but please, let's not talk about him being an ace or an "all star" based on ERA and W-Ls

 

Matter of fact, Gibson's FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K% this season is worse than last season.

 

Was he an "ace" or "an all star" pitcher last season?  If not, then he is not this season

 

The way that Gibson is pitching is the way a solid number 3 or number 4 pitcher should be pitching in a contender.  But the Twins forgot what a contender is, and if I am not mistaken, more than one media outlets even called Diamond an 'ace'.   In that comparison, Gibson wins, but an ace he is not.

[SarasotaBill]

Gibson threw yesterday like a ace.

 

If he can consistently throw his change-up like yesterday he will take a big step forward in being a top pitcher (#1 or #2).

[drivlikejehu]

Gibson had the same pitch mix that he's had in the past. He executed his pitches better than usual, but there's no reason to think he can do that every time out. If he does this for an extended period, that would be different.

[DocBauer]

First off, having an actual ACE is awesome because for THAT start on the season, you generally increase your odds of winning. That is especially nice if the team is struggling or he starts the first game of a series. But in the playoffs, said ACE is matched up against the other team's best starter. If you lose, then what? Why I like thedepth of #2 starters.

 

Secondly, after a slow start last season, Hughes pitched about as close to ACE-dom as you can get. He was a certified #1 starter to be sure. And thus far, he seems to be repeating himself.

 

Third, Gibson will probably never be dominate in the power and K way we think of to be an ACE. But I believe he has the stuff, plane, build, wherewithal, etc to truly control a game, which is another version of dominance. Hes already shown the ability to do so. Its just been about experience and greater consistency.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

All I read is that Gibson is pitching with top of the rotation stuff. Hard to argue with that. Gibson hasn't allowed a run in the 1st or 2nd inning since the opening series---something aces do for their teams. He is not being pulled from games mid-inning. His strikeout rate seems to be higher the further he goes in games. (Would be glad to be corrected) And since he's getting better results than Hughsie...

 

Ace Ace Ace Ace Ace !!!!!!!!'

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If you saw Kyle Gibson's performance today (Sunday) against the White Sox, you saw an ace pitcher on the mound. I remember when the Twins drafted him, there were pundits saying he was a top-4 draft prospect, if not for his injured forearm. It's easy to see today what those pundits were talking about.

 

Gibson's delivery is one key element. He stands so tall, and his release point is high, so his pitches all have a pronounced downhill trajectory. However, since he was drafted Gibson has definitely refined his game. His balance as he raises his knee is much better, resulting in even less lateral motion of his neck as his weight shifts towards the plate. Because of this, his control is approaching pinpoint accuracy. In one at-bat I saw him throw a sinker, then a fastball to the low, outside corner. Then he threw a two-seamer which started towards the exact same spot, then slid six inches to the right. How the batter held up on that pitch, I have no idea.

 

Even more, Gibson has now started throwing more change-ups, and with his added precision, hitters look helpless. With his consistent release point, Gibson's change is very hard to distinguish from his heater, and batters are screwing themselves into the ground trying to hit it.

 

Last, Gibson today has a very calm, determined look that reminds me of Trevor Plouffe. He knows he belongs, he knows he can do this. What he's got today isn't mid-rotation stuff. Kyle Gibson looks like an ace.

Good analysis as always. Gibson has three working pitches right now and batters are on the defensive. He's also had a little luck getting the ground ball when he needs it. It's been fun to watch.

[Twodogs]

 

If you think a team's ace dominating them to a title is common, I encourage you to go research that.  You'll find it's simply not true.

 

In fact, Bumgarner is the exception, not the rule.

You mean like Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson?  Then I don't know what they had after those two, but who cared after that?

[Twodogs]

 

im beginning to agree with this philosophy. Look at the Royals last year. No true ace, but three very very good pitchers, and I think Gibson could be one of those three if he can continue to pitch like he has lately. If someday he can pitch in the playoffs like he did yesterday the Twins would have a good chance of winning

In my opinion the Royals Ace was their bullpen.

[Twodogs]

 

Never heard of him. Now, Madison Bumgarner, him I've heard of.

You must be sounding this stuff out loud huh, because I didn't hear any of it? 

[Twodogs]

 

It's just TD tough love, it's a show of acceptance...........................and it was 2 extra letters.

 

 

Little known fact is that Baumgartner's brother Ken was a tough hombre on the ice....................and apparently a Met's fan. I think they have the same hair stylist.

 

 

http://icewars-review.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/1230.jpg

That is a nice mullet.

[h2oface]

 

People get too carried away with the whole ace thing and what defines it.   As you pointed out the Dodgers had more than one but didn't advance.   Giants have a borderline one and won it all.

Bumgarner a borderliner? I guess the Twins aren't even close to an Ace then, eh?