Hicks' First 10 Games

[stringer bell]

For most of the offseason, I advocated that the Twins address their outfield defense issues by acquiring a premium defender.  The name I put forward was Peter Bourjos of the Cardinals.  It turned out the Twins had a player comparable to Bourjos in their system--Aaron Hicks.

 

Hicks has been recalled for almost two weeks and has started every game in center.  From what I have seen and read, his defense has been impeccable.  I saw Hicks make a fine diving catch in left-center live on Friday and saw the his eighth inning diving catch on video late on Saturday.  He has made several fine plays and few mistakes. 

 

As a hitter, Hicks has eight hits in 37 at-bats with one double, one walk and ten strikeouts.  This translates to an OPS of .480.  This is a small sample size to be sure and one 4-4 day would lift his batting average to near .300.

 

In his two previous stints with the Twins, Hicks was passable in the field, but not outstanding.  He made some nice catches, but took poor routes to some balls and was too hesitant on too many occasions.  He seems to be playing center with confidence.  Most observers think Hicks' hitting will come around as well.  He seems more aggressive and he does have good strike zone judgement.  I haven't seen him hit the ball hard often.

 

I remain hopeful that Hicks hits and fields well enough for somebody to want him as their center fielder.  I remain extremely skeptical that Hicks can hit well enough to be a regular corner outfielder.  I will say that the team has been better with Hicks in center field than Jordan Schafer. 

[TheLeviathan]

The bat hasn't been there, but the defense is night and day better so far.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's encouraging to see that his BA has stayed above the Mendoza line. He was probably a bit too selective the last couple seasons. That said, he's probably gone a bit too far in the other direction and needs to lay off some pitches. .480 OPS is really bad. I'm encouraged in that he's getting more contact, and yes, I get the SSS caveats. I really hope he can turn into a decent major leaguer. That would be quite benefical to this club.

[spinowner]

Didn't see either game but caught most of both on the radio. The White Sox guys commented that he took good routes on both his highlight-reel catches. I continue to hope that his offensive production (by whatever measure) is enough to justify his presence on the team. And I think to say that there's a point where his offense is good enough for a CF but not good enough for a corner OF is probably overanalyzing. If he's the best RF in the organization after Buxton comes up then put him there and hope for the best.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I remain hopeful that Hicks hits and fields well enough for somebody to want him as their center fielder.  I remain extremely skeptical that Hicks can hit well enough to be a regular corner outfielder.  I will say that the team has been better with Hicks in center field than Jordan Schafer. 

 

With the makeup of the Twins, I don't know if stellar defense will outweigh the need for major league average hitting at any position.

[Brandon Warne]

Yeah for me he probably starts in CF, bats eighth or ninth and plays every day from here on out. Re-evaluate then, because you'll either need a new starting RF (my guess) or a fourth outfielder -- both roles he can easily fill.

[jorgenswest]

Evaluate at the all star break and until then don't look at the stats. Certainly don't report them until his sample size is around 120 plate appearances.

 

If he is hitting poorly at the all star break, they need to see how he does in a 4th OF/platoon role. Start him against every lefty. A fourth OF with good defense that can hit lefties is valuable to every team.

[Einstein1]

He has been an upgrade from Jordan Schafer.  

[twinsnorth49]

He has been an upgrade from Jordan Schafer.

That shouldn't be the bar.

[twinsnorth49]

Didn't see either game but caught most of both on the radio. The White Sox guys commented that he took good routes on both his highlight-reel catches. I continue to hope that his offensive production (by whatever measure) is enough to justify his presence on the team. And I think to say that there's a point where his offense is good enough for a CF but not good enough for a corner OF is probably overanalyzing. If he's the best RF in the organization after Buxton comes up then put him there and hope for the best.

Saying a guys offense might be good enough for CF but not for a corner spot is not over analyzing. No way his defense in those spots is going to make up enough for a. 480 OPS.

[stringer bell]

Side note on this:  Buxton is heating up again in Chattanooga, but it is my opinion that this year, his major contribution to the team this year would be speed and defense.  If Hicks is playing plus defense in center, the amount of upgrade Buxton would provide would be limited.

 

I think Hicks offense wouldn't be able to hit the .700 plateau with a larger sample size.  I don't think that is enough to play every day on a corner.  I have said for over a year that the goal should be for Hicks to play well enough to have trade value.  I still believe that. 

 

 

[bird]

 

That shouldn't be the bar.

 

 

Not long term, but temporarily it's a good bar until Buxton shows up, probably yet this year. Buxton is the long term bar for CF.

[twinsnorth49]

Not long term, but temporarily it's a good bar until Buxton shows up, probably yet this year. Buxton is the long term bar for CF.

Of course he is, and that's a bar worth setting.

[gunnarthor]

Give him more time before we overly worry but his bat still doesn't look good and he's not Andruw Jones or even Torii Hunter out there in CF.  He needs to hit a lot more than he has otherwise he's a AAAA player. 

[Old Twins Cap]

This is a large sample size: 

 

Hicks looks like a professional baseball player and runs, throws and swings like one.

 

We can quarrel with the results, but he is playing premium defense and will contribute in multiple ways over time.  Like Escobar and Arcia, he needs to cut down on his swing and focus on solid contact, especially with two strikes.

 

But, point is:  I feel a lot better watching a guy with a major league body and skills playing center field than a marionette with no upside.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

That shouldn't be the bar.

This is a large sample size:

 

Hicks looks like a professional baseball player and runs, throws and swings like one.

 

We can quarrel with the results, but he is playing premium defense and will contribute in multiple ways over time. Like Escobar and Arcia, he needs to cut down on his swing and focus on solid contact, especially with two strikes.

 

But, point is: I feel a lot better watching a guy with a major league body and skills playing center field than a marionette with no upside.

he used to watch strike three 4-5 times per game, and when he did swing it was weak, and when he did make contact it was weak. It's nice to see him become more authoritative in all facets of his game. With his improved emphasis on fielding, I can live with Hicks being only a slight improvement over Schafer/Robinson at the dish. He's been the best option at CF this season and I hope that the small sample size grows to a large one.

[Winston Smith]

 

That shouldn't be the bar.

True but that one is on Terry Ryan. Right now he is likely the best option that Ryan has given the coaching staff.

[twinsnorth49]

True but that one is on Terry Ryan. Right now he is likely the best option that Ryan has given the coaching staff.

Agreed, I'm certainly not blaming Mollie.

[Gene Larkin]

So far Hicks hasn't driven in a single run and he has had a dozen at bats or so with runners in scoring position. If that doesn't improve considerably it won't matter how well he plays defense.

[lightfoot789]

I can see Buxton being called up for Playoff run as that defensive specialist and/or late inning base runner.  Dyson served that purpose for KC last year and was key to their run.  Hicks and Buxton and whoever in late inning games would be such a relief for those Bullpen guys.

[stringer bell]

 

True but that one is on Terry Ryan. Right now he is likely the best option that Ryan has given the coaching staff.

Without the month in Rochester, would Hicks be playing this well?  I thought he needed to be sent to Rochester and while the offensive numbers haven't been great out of the box, he's looks like a different player to me. 

[bird]

Every year, a dozen highly touted prospects around the league make it to the majors and then sort of peter out (not that Hicks will necessarily be one of them). How come, when this happens, fans blame it on the GM? Maybe it's the player's doing.

 

Hicks has been disappointing so far in his previous stints with the Twins, and maybe he'll redeem himself this time around, and maybe not.

 

If he suddenly lives up to "expectations", I doubt the same people who currently blame Ryan for the kid's failures will turn around and heap praise on him. Although doing so would be as misguided as blaming him now.

[Twodogs]

He is hitting .220, kinda like last year.

[TheDean]

 

Without the month in Rochester, would Hicks be playing this well?  I thought he needed to be sent to Rochester and while the offensive numbers haven't been great out of the box, he's looks like a different player to me. 

 

Here's an interesting comp: Chris Parmelee. Between 2012 and 2013 (age 24 and 25), he got over 500 PA at the major league level with trips back and forth to Rochester. His wRC+ was in the low 80s.

 

Last year (age 24), Hicks put up a wRC+ of 84 in a little over 200 PA, but also had trips back down to the minors. I'll be interested to see whether he can advance his offensive production beyond what Parmelee did in his age 25 season. Of course Parmelee had little defensive value, and Hicks plays CF (plays it well, apparently) and has speed on the basepaths.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

He is hitting .220, kinda like last year.

 

Sadly, that's quite the improvement on last year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Yeah for me he probably starts in CF, bats eighth or ninth and plays every day from here on out. Re-evaluate then, because you'll either need a new starting RF (my guess) or a fourth outfielder -- both roles he can easily fill.

i would hope Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Hicks would be your 4 outfielders. Arcia appears to be in the dog house, like Vargas it seems to be a work ethic thing, but both can overcome that.

[strumdatjaguar]

Unlike the previous post, I wouldn't hope that our four outfielders are Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Hicks. There are more potential outfielders in the mix for the Twins just at Chattanooga: Max Kepler, Adam Brett Walker II and Travis Harrison. The are all potential outfielders for the big league club by 2016-2017. Barring injury or a serious set-back, the only one that can be penciled in right now is Buxton. Aaron Hicks has a lot of competition for one of those other three outfield spot in the next 20 months. My hope is that the competition continues and the best four ultimately make their way to the Twins by mid-2016. If others fail to excel, hten so be it. Despite the great contribution from Torii Hunter this year, my other HOPE is that the Twins do NOT sign any more free agent outfielders.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think worst case, Hicks becomes a 4th OF.  He'll be a defensive upgrade just about anywhere in the OF... that's if his bat never improves.  He holds a minor league career OPS of over .800, so if by chance he figures out the bat, he'll be quite the asset.  Honestly, I hope he figures it out b/c history has shown that decent CFs can get a nice return.  A good year or two from Hicks and we can flip him to make room for Harrison or Walker. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I find it really puzzling that in 2013-2014, Hicks was not the defensive centerfielder advertised by scouts.

 

In 2015, he is the centerfielder advertised by scouts.

 

He's a different player this season, even if it's not showing up in box scores... yet. He was overly passive in previous seasons but now he has turned into an aggressive hitter. He'll need to move back to being slightly more passive (his contact rate, zone swing rate, and a few other peripherals are concerning) but I have hope that he can do that in time.

 

I hold more hope for Aaron Hicks now than I have at any time since 2013.

[nicksaviking]

Here's an interesting comp: Chris Parmelee. Between 2012 and 2013 (age 24 and 25), he got over 500 PA at the major league level with trips back and forth to Rochester.

Yeah that last part was the biggest problem though. The team has a lot of Hicks/Parmelee type prospects. Having too many might not be the best thing as few will get consistancy looks. Parmelee couldn't get constant playing time even though the team was awful and had very few options for the future.

 

How the hell are guys like Rosario, Arcia, Harrison and Kepler going to get 500 at bats in a season to evaluate their capabilities? You can't yo-yo these guys around for three years and expect something to click when they aren't getting everyday playing time at the MLB level to work on their flaws.