Article: What Would a Francisco Liriano Trade Look Like?

[SweetOne69]

A couple of points...

 

1: I highly doubt Liriano or his agent would accept an extention by the Twins. They see his value as rising right now, and pitchers tend to do very well in the free agent marketplace. Also, they know if the Twins don't trade him they are planning to make him a qualifying offer, so it's really a no lose situation from his standpoint.

I'm sure Liriano and his Agent are praying that the Twins make him a qualifying offer as he will accept it before the ink dries.

 

There is no way that the Twins are going to make Liriano a qualifying offer of $12M+.

[twinswon1991]

Okay, but neither of those guys would fit with the Braves whatsoever.

Parra is cheaper and a better overall player than Span so I don't know why he wouldnt be a fit. Is it just because he isnt a full-time starter? Span would only be a defensive replacement for the snakes.

[biggentleben]

Parra is cheaper and a better overall player than Span so I don't know why he wouldnt be a fit. Is it just because he isnt a full-time starter? Span would only be a defensive replacement for the snakes.

The Braves will be looking for a good defender who can leadoff. That's their main priority. Parra cannot leadoff, and neither can Bourjos. That's why neither would be a fit for the Braves, but Span would.

[twinswon1991]

The Braves will be looking for a good defender who can leadoff. That's their main priority. Parra cannot leadoff, and neither can Bourjos. That's why neither would be a fit for the Braves, but Span would.

 

Sorry buddy but you apparently are not familiar with baseball outside of what the FSN homers spew. Go to fangraphs and compare them. Parra has a higher obp, more stolen bases and is a gold glove centerfielder not just a good one. Like I said Span is fine but he couldnt hold Parra' jock.

 

Add in the salary difference and concussion issues Parra is far more valuable.

[biggentleben]

Sorry buddy but you apparently are not familiar with baseball outside of what the FSN homers spew. Go to fangraphs and compare them. Parra has a higher obp, more stolen bases and is a gold glove centerfielder not just a good one. Like I said Span is fine but he couldnt hold Parra' jock.

 

Add in the salary difference and concussion issues Parra is far more valuable.

LOL! My favorite team doesn't even play on FSN, so you may want to reconsider that statement. I've seen Parra for years. He's never won a Gold Glove as a CF. He looks amazing in left, and he's certainly above average in CF, but he's not THAT elite. Brett Gardner is a similar player. He looks elite in left, but he'd be simply an above-average CF. Span is a leadoff type of hitter. In the NL, Parra is a #2 or #8 hitter, not a leadoff type. Also, BRef's dWAR (which isn't perfect by any means) has Span as worth 2.3 WAR defensively the last two seasons while Parra has been worth 1.6 WAR in similar games. Span steals twice as many bases per 162 and has 20 points of OBP on Parra in their careers, so not sure what you're talking about. If you're enjoying small sample sizes, then sure, you can compare 3 months versus entire careers. They're similar value players, but Span is a better leadoff type.

[twinswon1991]

You cant look at Spans peak years and compare them to the player he is today....not the same. SPAn is on the way down and Parra is rising. Span would not be a leadoff hitter on a good team team. Your logic in saying Span is the better leadoff hitter because he is doing it now is flawed. Gardy pencils him in there....big deal. Gardy used to bat Redmond 3RD beacause it was the "catchers spot".

[biggentleben]

You cant look at Spans peak years and compare them to the player he is today....not the same. SPAn is on the way down and Parra is rising. Span would not be a leadoff hitter on a good team team. Your logic in saying Span is the better leadoff hitter because he is doing it now is flawed. Gardy pencils him in there....big deal. Gardy used to bat Redmond 3RD beacause it was the "catchers spot".

No response to the defense, huh?

 

I'm not assuming that he's a leadoff guy because Gardy puts him there, but you can assume that all you'd like. For as much attention as I pay to each Twins box score, he could be batting 9th for all I worry. I've seen what his numbers have been all season. For your comparison, THIS season, Parra and Span have identical 1.8 fWAR numbers.

 

You're obviously anti-Span, so I'll leave the back and forth at that, but you may be surprised how Span is valued around the league.

[twinswon1991]

Span has value, they are basically equal except defense where Parra is superior. To other teams the age, contract, concussions etc are HUGE and make all the difference.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The value in rentals in the past was that even if they didn't resign with you, you got two picks for them. Now a team trading for a rental gets no picks at all, because they cannot offer a qualifying offer if he's not on the team to start the season. So a rental player under the new CBA is very, very devalued in trades.

I missed that in the new CBA... good to know.

[diehardtwinsfan]

SPAn is on the way down and Parra is rising. Span would not be a leadoff hitter on a good team team. Your logic in saying Span is the better leadoff hitter because he is doing it now is flawed. Gardy pencils him in there....big deal. Gardy used to bat Redmond 3RD beacause it was the "catchers spot".

Did he beat you up and steal your lunch money as a kid?

 

1) He's not "on his way down", he's in his prime. He's 28 years old, established, and having a pretty good year. Yes, Parra is 3 years younger, but that makes him more expensive too.

 

2) He gives teams something that's hard to find, and Parra does not. (good leadoff guy)

 

3) He plays well above average defense at a critical defensive position. Parra does this as well.

 

4) He's also a above average hitter for the same position, as is Parra, but he's lacking the leadoff OBP skills Span has.

 

5) Both are cheap, though Span is cost controlled.

 

I'm not saying that Parra isn't valuable, but let's be realistic... this is hardly a slam dunk. Parra has been in the league one less year, so it isn't as if Parra is somehow massively cheaper... He's just a year behind in the arb process, and his main comparable is likely Denard Span. They are very similar players. Due to his age and this little problem that he Arizona franchize is on the rise and that they might still consider themselves as contenders, Parra is going to cost a lot more, and he has more question marks to go with it. I doubt he gets moved anytime soon unless AZ gets an absolute haul.

[Guest USAFChief]

A couple of points...

 

1: I highly doubt Liriano or his agent would accept an extention by the Twins. They see his value as rising right now, and pitchers tend to do very well in the free agent marketplace. Also, they know if the Twins don't trade him they are planning to make him a qualifying offer, so it's really a no lose situation from his standpoint.

 

2: As far as the return for Liriano, I think we have to realize the most likely option is probably a high end, low A pitcher or a mid range AA/AAA pitcher. I would be fine with either. We are rebuilding, and the last thing a rebuilding team should do is take a high doller risk on an inconsistant player rather than upgrading their minor league talent pool.

I, on the otherhand, think Liriano or his agent would jump at something like 3/$24. He's only 6 six starts into a return from losing his starting spot. He wasn't very good last year. Were he to implode again (and even I, someone who wants him signed to an extension, acknowledge that's entirely possible), he wouldn't sniff anything like those numbers. A 3 yr extension at around these numbers seems to me a pretty fair offer from the Twins, and balances the risk slightly in Liriano's favor. If he harnesses his talent, he'll be underpaid a little. On the otherhand, if he reverts back to awful, he's gotten one pretty decent payday that sets him up for life, and the Twins are stuck with a bad contract, but one that doesn't cripple them.

 

But it has to be done now, for both sides. If you wait till winter, one side or the other ain't gonna like that deal.

[TheLeviathan]

So you believe that players approach free agency with the mindset of "Geez, I'm a sucky player just waiting to happen...better cash in quick!" That's the basis of your Liriano opinion? Because that's essentially what you're saying here. He'd accept the offer you propose because he and his agent know how possible/likely it is he'll be awful?

 

I think I'll refer you back to this post's Edwin Jackson comp. Seems appropriate as one of many, many examples of how naive that thinking is, especially considering how many players walk into free agency believing they're much more valuable than they really are.

[Guest USAFChief]

So you believe that players approach free agency with the mindset of "Geez, I'm a sucky player just waiting to happen...better cash in quick!" That's the basis of your Liriano opinion? Because that's essentially what you're saying here. He'd accept the offer you propose because he and his agent know how possible/likely it is he'll be awful?

I believe Albert Pujols and Francisco Liriano probably have different expectations for what might await them in free agency, yes.

 

You, on the other hand, in the space of 2 months seem to have gone from "Liriano is worthless, dump him for anything you can get," to "why would he accept $24M guaranteed?".

 

Because that's essentially what you're saying here.

[Riverbrian]

I believe Albert Pujols and Francisco Liriano probably have different expectations for what might await them in free agency, yes.

 

You, on the other hand, in the space of 2 months seem to have gone from "Liriano is worthless, dump him for anything you can get," to "why would he accept $24M guaranteed?".

 

Because that's essentially what you're saying here.

Hey Chief... You typed 2 months... You meant 2 pages I assume.

[Guest USAFChief]

Hey Chief... You typed 2 months... You meant 2 pages I assume.

+1. 10char

[glunn]

Potential aces are rare and hard to acquire. It seems to me that Chief's idea would make sense for both sides. I would prefer 2/$12 to 3/$24, but I don't think that 3/$24 would be ridiculous.

 

From Liriano's point of view, there is a risk of injury and a risk of not doing well for the balance of this season. In either of these events, he could end up with much less than 2/$12. Or Liriano could be light out the rest of this season, in which case he would have given up an opportunity to make a lot more.

 

From the Twins point of view, they might get an ace at a bargain price or they might get another Nick Blackburn type outcome.

 

This is how deals get made in the business world when there is uncertainty -- both sides meet in the middle based on rational evaluations of their upsides and downsides. Considering the value of an ace (especially on the postseason), it seems like a risk that the Twins should consider. And considering that a shoulder injury could cause Liriano's best offer as a free agent to be 0/$0, he and his agent would be fools not to at least listen.

[TheLeviathan]

I believe Albert Pujols and Francisco Liriano probably have different expectations for what might await them in free agency, yes.

 

You, on the other hand, in the space of 2 months seem to have gone from "Liriano is worthless, dump him for anything you can get," to "why would he accept $24M guaranteed?".

 

Because that's essentially what you're saying here.

Mighty fine scarecrow Dorothy. Just because we know he's worthless, doesn't mean he will. Free agency is littered with guys that arrogantly thought they were worth more than they were. The only reason it "makes sense" for both sides to sign this kind of a deal is because you're projecting a rational, balanced take on to Liriano.

 

Players imagine their own worth much higher than is deserved - and almost always higher than hope-filled message board scenarios. My opinion hasn't changed at all - dump him in July. His career as a Twin is done and thankfully so. I'd prefer not to toss three year extensions to guys that are in the bottom ten of starting pitching as often as he has been. The pipe-dream "ace" stuff is pretty silly when you take the time to look at 2009 and 2011. Hell, 2012 too, even with this nice run.

[twinswon1991]

If Liriano's agent allows him to resign with the Twins he is a moron. He should take less money and go to a team with a decent pitching coach. Look at all the guys with less talent than Frankie who have left Anderson to get realcoaching to prosper. A Duncan, Maddox, Cooper type coach could turn Frankie into a 15 mil a year pitcher over 4 years.

 

Also, why take the risk of working with clueless medical staff should he have even some minor pain? He is looking at one more nice contract in his career and he cant afford to blowing due to an assessment by Dr. Larry, Curley or Moe.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Look at all the guys with less talent than Frankie who have left Anderson to get realcoaching to prosper.

And who might these people be?

 

Oh, right. Eric Milton, Kevin Slowey, Joe Mays, Carlos Silva, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Mark Redman... They all lit up the world after leaving the Twins.

 

Jesse Crain was good with the Twins once he started throwing harder again. That continued after his signing with the Sox. Lohse was an up-and-down pitcher with the Twins. He's a marginally better up-and-down pitcher since that point... In the National League.

 

You've got RA Dickey and...

 

RA Dickey. A journeyman who bounced between so many teams that it's obvious something just clicked with him one day and he suddenly figured out the knuckleball, an almost unteachable pitch.

[twinswon1991]

You can build a decent rotation right now using guys that Andy couldnt help who went on to much better success elsewhere:

 

Dicky, Lohse, Humber, Garza, even gawd awful Marquis found a coach to fix a flaw in his delivery where he may stick in the bigs and earn money the rest of the year.

[CDog]

RA Dickey. A journeyman who bounced between so many teams that it's obvious something just clicked with him one day and he suddenly figured out the knuckleball, an almost unteachable pitch.

I've wondered a few times over the last couple months as he's been lighting up the world if it's closer to what you describe or was more of a gradual thing that just took him time and reps and tinkering to pefect. I saw they did a feature on him on ESPN recently where it looked like he was talking a lot about how he throws it, etc, but I was somewhere with picture but no sound. Did anyone see that and did it shed any light?

 

Apologies for any thread hijacking.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You can build a decent rotation right now using guys that Andy couldnt help who went on to much better success elsewhere:

 

Dicky, Lohse, Humber, Garza, even gawd awful Marquis found a coach to fix a flaw in his delivery where he may stick in the bigs and earn money the rest of the year.

Philip Humber pitched 20 innings over two seasons with Minnesota. Yeah, damn Anderson for not doing more with the kid. Wait, what?

 

Garza was a good pitcher with the Twins. He had a 117 ERA+ the year he was traded. His career ERA+? 109.

 

Dickey was an aberration. Anyone with an objective viewpoint can see that. He struggled with how many teams before figuring it out with the Mets?

 

Lohse has had a marginal career as a decent middle-to-back of the rotation NL starter. He's not any better away from the Twins than he was with them. With the Twins, he had almost exactly a 100 ERA+. His career ERA+ is 96.

 

Jason Marquis has pitched 26 innings for the Padres.

 

You're not very good at this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've wondered a few times over the last couple months as he's been lighting up the world if it's closer to what you describe or was more of a gradual thing that just took him time and reps and tinkering to pefect. I saw they did a feature on him on ESPN recently where it looked like he was talking a lot about how he throws it, etc, but I was somewhere with picture but no sound. Did anyone see that and did it shed any light?

 

Apologies for any thread hijacking.

Probably six of one, half dozen of the other. He's been good for the Mets for what, 2 1/2 seasons now? Knuckleballers are fickle beasts. Most don't ever figure it out. Dickey did. It's hard to give the Mets much credit for that or blame any previous teams for not pulling it off.

[CDog]

Probably six of one, half dozen of the other. He's been good for the Mets for what, 2 1/2 seasons now? Knuckleballers are fickle beasts. Most don't ever figure it out. Dickey did. It's hard to give the Mets much credit for that or blame any previous teams for not pulling it off.

Agree on all counts. Has been more of a curiosity of how exactly the evolution took place because it's rather a fantastic story (probably at least in part because for some reason I can't put my finger on given the limited information, I always felt like I liked him as a person).

[twinswon1991]

Philip Humber pitched 20 innings over two seasons with Minnesota. Yeah, damn Anderson for not doing more with the kid. Wait, what?

 

Garza was a good pitcher with the Twins. He had a 117 ERA+ the year he was traded. His career ERA+? 109.

 

Dickey was an aberration. Anyone with an objective viewpoint can see that. He struggled with how many teams before figuring it out with the Mets?

 

Lohse has had a marginal career as a decent middle-to-back of the rotation NL starter. He's not any better away from the Twins than he was with them. With the Twins, he had almost exactly a 100 ERA+. His career ERA+ is 96.

 

Jason Marquis has pitched 26 innings for the Padres.

 

You're not very good at this.

Except for Garza all of these guys looked to be headed out pf baseball when Andy was done with them. Name one SP he has coached up? Thank goodness Diamond was sent to AAA to get fixed and good thing Frankie went back to the slider and old arm slot despite Andy's wishes

[Brock Beauchamp]

Except for Garza all of these guys looked to be headed out pf baseball when Andy was done with them. Name one SP he has coached up? Thank goodness Diamond was sent to AAA to get ixed and good thing Frankie went back to the slider and old arm slot despite Andy's wishes

Andy never had Humber in the first place. 20 innings. That's what he pitched with Minnesota. Blame the front office all you want but Anderson cannot be blamed for Humber. And let's not overlook the fact that one Mr. Philip Humber has been absolutely awful this season.

 

Lohse did not look like he was on his way out of baseball. In his last full season before the trade, he had an ERA+ of 106. That's quite a bit better than his career average. Yeah, he was bad right before the trade but he had only logged 60 innings that year. He performed even worse than that season in 2010 with St. Louis. He's an up-and-down pitcher who is basically the same guy away from Minnesota that he was with Minnesota.

 

I'm not the one claiming Anderson is God's gift to pitching. You're the one claiming that he's awful. I don't have to show examples where he's taken a pitcher off the scrap heap (Burton), whereas you have to back up the claim that a lengthy list of pitchers have left Minnesota and achieved greatness (or even mediocrity).

 

Except you can't do that. Because it's not true.

[biggentleben]

Agree on all counts. Has been more of a curiosity of how exactly the evolution took place because it's rather a fantastic story (probably at least in part because for some reason I can't put my finger on given the limited information, I always felt like I liked him as a person).

Not to further the hijacking or anything, but read his book, and you'll very quickly figure out why you like him as a person. He is a very likable person.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not to further the hijacking or anything, but read his book, and you'll very quickly figure out why you like him as a person. He is a very likable person.

Plus, his name is RA Dickey. Who doesn't love a guy named RA Dickey?

[Guest USAFChief]

Mighty fine scarecrow Dorothy. Just because we know he's worthless, doesn't mean he will. Free agency is littered with guys that arrogantly thought they were worth more than they were. The only reason it "makes sense" for both sides to sign this kind of a deal is because you're projecting a rational, balanced take on to Liriano.

 

Players imagine their own worth much higher than is deserved - and almost always higher than hope-filled message board scenarios. My opinion hasn't changed at all - dump him in July. His career as a Twin is done and thankfully so. I'd prefer not to toss three year extensions to guys that are in the bottom ten of starting pitching as often as he has been. The pipe-dream "ace" stuff is pretty silly when you take the time to look at 2009 and 2011. Hell, 2012 too, even with this nice run.

I see your point. The Twins are so loaded with starting pitching talent at every level, they should endeavor to rid themselves of some of it at any cost.

 

BTW...Liriano is easily the Twins second best starter in 2012, even with his horrendous start.

[TheLeviathan]

I see your point. The Twins are so loaded with starting pitching talent at every level, they should endeavor to rid themselves of some of it at any cost.

 

BTW...Liriano is easily the Twins second best starter in 2012, even with his horrendous start.

Yeah, our pitching is bad. I can see your point - let's toss a couple ten million dollars at one of the key cogs in that awful portion of our team. Makes sense.

 

I'm sure his recent past performances indicate your position better. Right?