Article: What Would a Francisco Liriano Trade Look Like?

[biggentleben]

Is Liriano the most frustrating player in not only the history of this franchise, but in all of baseball as well?

He's the pitching version of Jeff Francoeur.

[peterb18]

No way would Baker and Liriano get 20mm on the free agent market.

I agree with the above.

The only way I see a competitve pitching staff for the next two years is to sign Liriano, Baker and hope that Gibson develops. From what I see there are no potential 1 or 2 starters in the farm system. Otherwise it is going to a rough next couple of years.

[peterb18]

"Pitch to contact" = "Throw strikes" = "Bust the ball in the zone". That's all it is. You can argue he needs to hear a different term for it, but they are all the same.

 

Twins have gotten WAY too much flack for that advice to Liriano from day 1.

Leviathan,

No they are not the same. If you ever pitched a lot of games you would know there is a big difference. However, only a few pitchers can pitch this way--a guy like Liriano can. Maybe the only way he can pitch. There is a big difference between throwing strikes and pitching to contact than just trying to bust the ball. With the later you can just try to get relaxed with your arm and rock back and just try to hit the plate and let natural movement take over. The type of movement is determined by your arm angle. Over the top is best for strikeouts. Like Bert always says," set them up with fastball and the strikeout pitch is the curve, or slider in the dirt". If you told Sandy Kofax to pitch to contact he would be in a lot of trouble. Now a guy like Radke, that is a different story.

[jctwins]

Leviathan,

No they are not the same. If you ever pitched a lot of games you would know there is a big difference. However, only a few pitchers can pitch this way--a guy like Liriano can. Maybe the only way he can pitch. There is a big difference between throwing strikes and pitching to contact than just trying to bust the ball. With the later you can just try to get relaxed with your arm and rock back and just try to hit the plate and let natural movement take over. The type of movement is determined by your arm angle. Over the top is best for strikeouts. Like Bert always says," set them up with fastball and the strikeout pitch is the curve, or slider in the dirt". If you told Sandy Kofax to pitch to contact he would be in a lot of trouble. Now a guy like Radke, that is a different story.

peterb18,

I think you might have a point, but it's pretty much just semantics.

[Guest USAFChief]

It is not a given it will take $12.5M to sign Liriano for 2013. That's just the offer the Twins would have to make under the new CBA to get compensation if he signs elsewhere.

 

It is also not a given he would need to be signed to a 1 year deal.

 

I remain convinced the Twins should have signed Liriano to a 3 yr deal last winter, when they could have done so cheaply, and remain convinced they should be looking to sign him to a 3 yr deal now, when it would be slightly less cheap, but doable. Liriano would take a 3 yr deal, at something like $21-$24/3.

 

Where else are the Twins going to get a starter with higher upside over the next 3 yrs? What would you rather see them spend that money on? There is nothing in the upper minors, save the possibility Gibson or Wimmers comes back to be effective in 2014 or so, and little chance the Twins are going to spend the type of money necessary to acquire top line starting pitching.

 

I would agree if he refuses a long term contract, then maybe you have to consider dealing him. But the "dump him for anything" crowd is just completely idiotic, and trading him before trying to get him signed to a reasonable long term deal is only slightly less stupid.

[Parker Hageman]

To combat Morosi's point, Buster Olney spoke to some evaluators who were "skittish" about pursuing Liriano and favored the Cubs' Matt Garza in spite of his higher salary. Can't say I don't disagree.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/central-notes-greinke-brewers-liriano-byrd.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Brock Beauchamp]

To combat Morosi's point, Buster Olney spoke to some evaluators who were "skittish" about pursuing Liriano and favored the Cubs' Matt Garza in spite of his higher salary. Can't say I don't disagree.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/central-notes-greinke-brewers-liriano-byrd.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

I'd favor Garza as well.

[CDog]

Leviathan,

No they are not the same. If you ever pitched a lot of games you would know there is a big difference. However, only a few pitchers can pitch this way--a guy like Liriano can. Maybe the only way he can pitch. There is a big difference between throwing strikes and pitching to contact than just trying to bust the ball. With the later you can just try to get relaxed with your arm and rock back and just try to hit the plate and let natural movement take over. The type of movement is determined by your arm angle. Over the top is best for strikeouts. Like Bert always says," set them up with fastball and the strikeout pitch is the curve, or slider in the dirt". If you told Sandy Kofax to pitch to contact he would be in a lot of trouble. Now a guy like Radke, that is a different story.

Was it intentional that you picked THE guy as your example of a non-pitch to contact player that also happens to have given THE pro-pitch to contact quote? The irony is fantastic either way, although I'm partial to the flavor where it wasn't.

 

It's been claimed (I don't know the veracity) that for a while Liriano was given a target down the middle and was told to just fire the ball over the plate to let his natural movement thrive. That...didn't work.

 

Congrats on having pitched a lot of games.

[Mike Sixel]

Baker? He just had TJ surgery, he won't be effective until 2014. I don't get how anyone thinks that makes sense. They aren't contending next year, trade them all. Where has anyone said "dump him for anything", where has anyone said that? Straw man arguements are weak.

[TheLeviathan]

Leviathan,

No they are not the same. If you ever pitched a lot of games you would know there is a big difference. However, only a few pitchers can pitch this way--a guy like Liriano can. Maybe the only way he can pitch. There is a big difference between throwing strikes and pitching to contact than just trying to bust the ball. With the later you can just try to get relaxed with your arm and rock back and just try to hit the plate and let natural movement take over. The type of movement is determined by your arm angle. Over the top is best for strikeouts. Like Bert always says," set them up with fastball and the strikeout pitch is the curve, or slider in the dirt". If you told Sandy Kofax to pitch to contact he would be in a lot of trouble. Now a guy like Radke, that is a different story.

Why are you responding like this is a civil war correspondence?

 

You're talking about the difference in these approaches as mechanical. Which would work for your argument if the Twins had tried to change his mechanics. They didn't. The "pitch to contact" issue came up two springs ago when he was throwing 100 pitches in barely four innings. He wasn't trusting his stuff and throwing strikes. So the Twins labeled it "pitch to contact" to get him to start throwing the ball and trusting his movement. If you throw it to where they will swing...your stuff will cause missed bats.

 

Your example also falls apart because no matter if you're Koufax, Johan Santana, Randy Johnson, or Fransisco Liriano - you don't strike people out if you don't throw strikes. Guys will just take pitches and beat you that way. To put it more simply - you can't get strike three if you can't get strikes one and two first. Hitters aren't dumb. Hell, AJ said it on Barreiro yesterday - the gameplan with Frankie is to see if he'll do the work for you. If he's in the zone - you're in trouble. If he's not, you're going to beat him around.

 

And, for the record, Nick N., Phil Mackey, and others have confirmed that the "pitch to contact" criticisms are nonsense. I'm not saying anything that isn't well known. I just happened to be on that same bandwagon from the get-go.

[TheLeviathan]

Where else are the Twins going to get a starter with higher upside over the next 3 yrs? What would you rather see them spend that money on?.

I would rather see Baker, even off of TJ surgery, make 4/32 than Liriano. As Storm posted above. We're five years removed from Liriano's surgery and only once has he posted the numbers you insist are possible. And in at least two full seasons he has been arguably one of the worst starters in all of baseball.

 

At what point of inconsistency (and I would argue - reliable awfulness) does a long term contract not become a bad move?

[bird]

If you read back in this thread, MWW, you WILL find that "trade him for anything you can get message." And exactly what strawman argument did YOU see? THAT's the thing I missed.

 

There are several viable options, including offering a fair three-year deal, trading him for Dan Hudson level return, offering him arbitration and either living with the compensation pick or living with his expensive presence, and perhaps dangling him again at next year's trade deadline. Those are reasonable options. The option that is unreasonable comes from the "dump him for anything crowd, and that crowd does in fact exist.

[TheLeviathan]

There are several viable options, including offering a fair three-year deal, trading him for Dan Hudson level return, offering him arbitration and either living with the compensation pick or living with his expensive presence, and perhaps dangling him again at next year's trade deadline. Those are reasonable options. The option that is unreasonable comes from the "dump him for anything crowd, and that crowd does in fact exist.

You're taking the point to the extreme. Liriano, if healthy and semi-competent, will have some value. If we have the opportunity to trade him and get value this year - it's better than letting him walk for nothing. The offseason's most likely scenario is him NOT returning. It's far more ridiculous to hope he'll take some team-friendly deal than it is to just want him gone and take what should likely be a decent offer this year.

[Guest USAFChief]

I would rather see Baker, even off of TJ surgery, make 4/32 than Liriano. As Storm posted above. We're five years removed from Liriano's surgery and only once has he posted the numbers you insist are possible. And in at least two full seasons he has been arguably one of the worst starters in all of baseball.

 

At what point of inconsistency (and I would argue - reliable awfulness) does a long term contract not become a bad move?

At what point of having no possibility of an above average pitcher in the rotation does not taking a chance on Liriano become a bad move?

 

He has unquestionably the best stuff of any pitcher in the Twins system, rookie ball to the majors. That seems to me the guy you take a chance on, not Scott Baker coming of TJ, or hoping to snag another couple Jason Marquis types to round out the Blackburn, Diamond, Walters trio topping the rotation next year.

 

A three yr contract that doesn't work out would hurt the Twins, but not cripple them. A three year contract where he pitches anything close to his potential would be a bargain, and give them a number one, or two, starter, that they need no matter whether they're hoping to compete in 2013 or 2015.

 

And despite your usual over-the-top schtick, "realiable awfulness" is exactly what Liriano ISN'T. Inconsistent? Yes. But he's always had flashes of brilliance, even in his bad seasons. I certainly don't know if he can become consistent, but I'd much rather gamble on that than gamble on something that you already know won't ever be better than 'decent.'

[Guest USAFChief]

If you read back in this thread, MWW, you WILL find that "trade him for anything you can get message." And exactly what strawman argument did YOU see? THAT's the thing I missed.

 

There are several viable options, including offering a fair three-year deal, trading him for Dan Hudson level return, offering him arbitration and either living with the compensation pick or living with his expensive presence, and perhaps dangling him again at next year's trade deadline. Those are reasonable options. The option that is unreasonable comes from the "dump him for anything crowd, and that crowd does in fact exist.

Well said.

[Thrylos]

I think that the comparison between the returns in the Jackson and Lohse trades is very interesting and teaches a good lesson: Hudson was doing well in AAA for a couple of seasons and had a couple cups of September coffee with the Sux, while Maloney had just gotten up to AA when they were traded. It was obvious that Hudson was MLB-ready, whereas Maloney had "potential". So if the interim goes after MLB-ready players over "potential", he can do better (and at least will have bodies for the 2013 rotation.)

 

One note: I think that FranKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKie is much better pitcher than Jackson.

 

About that "offering him arbitration" talk: With the new CBA, the Twins have to offer a contract of at least 1 yr $12.5 M to get a comp. pick if he signs elsewhere. I doubt they do that.

[TheLeviathan]

At what point of having no possibility of an above average pitcher in the rotation does not taking a chance on Liriano become a bad move?

 

Baker was above average recently. And he has less history being awful...why not him? His stuff isn't as electric, but he also hasn't been nearly as bad as Liriano has been.

 

And despite your usual over-the-top schtick, "realiable awfulness" is exactly what Liriano ISN'T. Inconsistent? Yes. But he's always had flashes of brilliance, even in his bad seasons. I certainly don't know if he can become consistent, but I'd much rather gamble on that than gamble on something that you already know won't ever be better than 'decent.'

 

2009 and 2011 were awful. That's two out of the last three and then an awful start this year. And this year he has ranged from brutal to pretty good. Unfortunately, until Monday night, his pretty good starts had all been against offenses in the bottom five of the league. Maybe that was coincidence, but maybe not. No one is denying that Frankie has talent. But you basically want to give him guaranteed money out of nothing more than hope. I find that to be a pretty poor way to operate a baseball team.

[Winston Smith]

CC and Pettit both go on the DL today, perfect time to get max out of Frankie, after a very good start and a team in need with assets. Ryan call the Yankees today!

[Brock Beauchamp]

CC and Pettit both go on the DL today, perfect time to get max out of Frankie, after a very good start and a team in need with assets. Ryan call the Yankees today!

Well, that's certainly intriguing.

[Parker Hageman]

I also find it interesting that I write about Daniel Hudson and today we learn that his UCL has crapped out.

[Thrylos]

I also find it interesting that I write about Daniel Hudson and today we learn that his UCL has crapped out.

Gotta write about Verlander, Cabrera (both the drunk and Assdribble), Fielder, miscallenous WSux players, etc... keep it to the division

[Dilligaf69]

There is zero chance Frankie signs with the Twins long term. What can the Twins offer: a losing team, terrible pitching coach and a medical staff that causes more injuries than they prevent.

 

Frankie must be traded but sadly the game has passed Terry Ryan by and he will sit around and lose him with zero compensatio.

 

C'mon really????

[Dilligaf69]

I also find it interesting that I write about Daniel Hudson and today we learn that his UCL has crapped out.

 

Oh i thought only the Twins med staff was incompetent and cause UCL injuries, maybe the D backs hired a former Twins trainer and it's his fault.

[70charger]

Quick question - I've heard a lot about how Liriano is unlikely to return to the Twins unless the team throws big money at him. Why is that? Is this an assumption being made because the Twins aren't a good team at the moment? But what if you walk and your options end up being the Cubs and Mariners?

 

Unless a winning team has expressed a desire for Liriano, or Liriano has expressed a desire to go to a winning team at a discount, about the only other thing I can think of is that he doesn't want to be a Twin anymore. Do we know this for sure? If so, trade him for sure.

[Dilligaf69]

I would'nt hate a 2-3 yr deal, what's he making this yr...$10 mil. 2yr/$22 mil or 3/$30, they have about $20 mil or so coming off don't they?? If the Jays are really interested in Justin that's another $13 mil even if the Twins eat a 1/3rd of his salary for next yr that's still plenty of $$ fo a FA starter. It also allows Parm to actually play, I'm not saying i want to trade Morneau but it makes sense if your trying to rebuild your rotation and FA or trade will get it done not waiting for the young kids. Span is another $5 mil off the books if you can trade him.

[Guest USAFChief]

Baker was above average recently. And he has less history being awful...why not him? His stuff isn't as electric, but he also hasn't been nearly as bad as Liriano has been.

Baker had TJ a couple months ago. There's no guarantee he will even pitch in the major leagues in 2013, and if he does, the chances he resembles his former self in his first year back are extremely low. Baker is also under a team option for 2013, and the chances the Twins pick that up are next to zero. Maybe he signs for significantly less, but if (when) the Twins decline that option, he's no longer under their control.

[Riverbrian]

I would love Terry Ryan's Job... At least I think I would... Maybe it has a private hell that the public doesn't see.

 

If I had Terry Ryan's Job... Liriano would be keeping me awake at night. His inconsistency has been too great but his stuff is also great. The Twins desperately need pitching and if you are searching for arms and need to try arms out looking for gems. Liriano fits that mold. But, Liriano is just too big a risk based on how bad he gets in long stretches.

 

More time is needed to make this call. Right now... I wouldn't bring him back... If he's still pitching like this in August. I'd still have to drive a knife through my eyeball fretting over it.

[Mike Sixel]

I saw 1 person say "trade him for anything", and a whole lot (lost count) saying to trade him for value. Whatever, i"m not interested in a back and forth argument. Most rational fans want players traded for something of value. And, in this case, I'd agree. This team is bad, really, really bad. It was really, really bad last year. They are not the kind of team to go out and get big time expensive players in trade or FA, so to me, the most likely path for this particular GM and ownership group is to trade veterans for young guys. IF I thought they'd sign a Greinke, or trade for that type of player, maybe you keep Liriano. But I just don't see it.

 

I'm baffled that anyone thinks Baker is a realistic option for next year, given that he just had TJ surgery. That's the part of this thread that confuses me.

[Mchans24]

Has anyone else noticed that Frankie has actually stopped listening to Anderson? His motion has become much more like it was before he got hurt. It is much more violent again which explains the nasty bite on the slider and his average fastball sitting at 92-94 instead of 89-91. With all that being said, someone will overpay for Liriano especially if he has five more good starts leading up to the deadline. Take what you can now, like you should have done when Delmon Young had his best year!!

[TheLeviathan]

Baker had TJ a couple months ago. There's no guarantee he will even pitch in the major leagues in 2013, and if he does, the chances he resembles his former self in his first year back are extremely low. Baker is also under a team option for 2013, and the chances the Twins pick that up are next to zero. Maybe he signs for significantly less, but if (when) the Twins decline that option, he's no longer under their control.

The team could reject the option and sign a different extension. But your points on why he is a risk are valid, however the problem is that none of these arguments are all that much more convincing than the same I'm making against Liriano. Yes, Baker is likely to be a mystery next year with a good chance of being a bad investment. But in that second year, like some other starters who have had TJ, he could be even better than he has been. (And he's been better than people think) But as you say....why not risk a little money on that? The difference, in my eyes with Baker, is that he hasn't been nearly as awful as Liriano has been prone to being.

 

Just to put it in context, there were only 9 pitchers with a worse ERA in 2011 than Liriano with more than 120 IP. Only 12 with a worse WHIP. His K/BB ratio was only .08 better than Nick friggin Blackburn. His most comparable current pitcher is Dice-K over his current career. I can go on. We're not "idiots" for wanting to avoid giving our personal Dice-K a guaranteed 40 million. He'll have some value, let's cash in on it.