Article: What Would a Francisco Liriano Trade Look Like?

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?719-What-Would-a-Francisco-Liriano-Trade-Look-Like

[glunn]

Great article. But do you think that the Twins should give up on the only pitcher on the 40 man roster who seems to have a real chance of being an ace next year? I am hoping that they sign him to a multi-year incentive laden deal.

[clutterheart]

If they trade Liriano, the FO not only gives up on '12 but also '13

There is no way to field a professional pitching staff next year without Liriano. - this is the sorry state of the Rotation.

So if he goes, might as well try to trade Willingham, Span, and both of the M&M brothers

[Blackjack]

So what kind of a contract will Liriano get in free agency this winter? What would it take for the Twins to sign him to a 2, 3, or 4 year contract?? He drives you crazy with his inconsistency but with his high upside, it could be worth the risk, at the right price. And they could always trade him next year at the trade deadline.... In 20013, if he has truly turned the corner and the Twins still suck, then they could truly get some gooooood prospects.

[kirbyelway]

Keep him and offer arbitration. If he continues to pitch this way he will turn it down and we will get a comp pick. That pick will probably have higher upside then what we get for him.

[twinswon1991]

There is zero chance Frankie signs with the Twins long term. What can the Twins offer: a losing team, terrible pitching coach and a medical staff that causes more injuries than they prevent.

 

Frankie must be traded but sadly the game has passed Terry Ryan by and he will sit around and lose him with zero compensatio.

[IdahoPilgrim]

There is no good answer to this one. If we try to trade him, we probably wouldn't get anything decent in return, for the reasons mentioned in the article. That begs the question, What's the point? I have no interest in trading for spare parts in the hope a miracle happens and one actually develops into a major leaguer. On the other hand, if we try to sign him to an extension, I just can't see him keeping up this pace. Sooner or later Bad Frankie will return. And unless we offer $12.5M (which would be ludicrous) we won't get a comp pick if he becomes a free agent.

[DPJ]

There's zero chance that Liriano signs with the Twins unless they overpay for him and that's not a road I'd like to see the Twins go down.

 

As for arb you have to make a qualifiing offer to any potential free agents so 1) is Liriano even ranked in the Elias rankings as an A or B?

[Cody Christie]

Anyone else have the feeling that Liriano will succeed for another organization but if he stays with the Twins, it will be more of the same old Liriano?

[TheLeviathan]

Anyone else have the feeling that Liriano will succeed for another organization but if he stays with the Twins, it will be more of the same old Liriano?

I find it much more likely that he puts together one good stretch, or even entire season, and people around here start throwing themselves off bridges in despair. Only to see the real Frankie show back up with his 6 ERA and inability to hit the plate.

 

At which point, of course, another team will tell him exactly the same thing we did (Throw it over the god-damn plate!) only they won't call it "pitch to contact" and we'll label them a genius if he pulls his head out of his butt again.

 

A trade of Liriano looks like this - beautiful. Get rid of him before you do something dumb like overpay him to stay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I find it much more likely that he puts together one good stretch, or even entire season, and people around here start throwing themselves off bridges in despair. Only to see the real Frankie show back up with his 6 ERA and inability to hit the plate.

Agreed. Parker brought up Edwin Jackson. I think that's a great comp for Liriano.

[DPJ]

Anyone else have the feeling that Liriano will succeed for another organization but if he stays with the Twins, it will be more of the same old Liriano?

 

When an organizations entire pitching philosophy is throw the ball over the plate and hopefully down in the zone it wouldn't shock me to see Liriano go kill it elsewhere.

 

Hell I'd love to see a real pitching coach get his hands on Liriano and clean up his mechanics.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, I liked that comp to Jackson. Liriano has the ability to be electric but the inability to be even consistently decent. He's either pretty good for awhile or he's one of the worst in baseball for awhile. Not much middle ground. I really hope other teams are swayed by this stretch against the league's worst offenses.

 

I'm not sure anyone can fix his mechanics DPJ. That seems to be predicated on focus and work-ethic. And, well, this is Frankie we're talking about.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, I liked that comp to Jackson. Liriano has the ability to be electric but the inability to be even consistently decent. He's either pretty good for awhile or he's one of the worst in baseball for awhile. Not much middle ground. I really hope other teams are swayed by this stretch against the league's worst offenses.

 

I'm not sure anyone can fix his mechanics DPJ. That seems to be predicated on focus and work-ethic. And, well, this is Frankie we're talking about.

I don't think this is about Liriano facing cakewalk lineups. He's a different pitcher. He's throwing his slider more often and his mechanics seem to be different.

 

But that's not the point. The point is that Liriano can never seem to hold on to the success he's having... Something goes wrong and he unfolds. Is it his head? Muscle memory? Coaching? I have no idea but it's there and it's real.

[roger]

Good analysis Parker, thanks!

[BigVin]

Trade Liriano! The Twins are rebuilding for the next year or 2, so why pay an average pitcher 12.5 Million for a .500 ball club or less. I realize the upside to Liriano, hence his last 3 starts, but look at his first 6-8 starts this year. My vote is to trade, and try to get a pitching or middle infield prospect. He will not sign with the Twins at years end.

[peterb18]

I think they should keep him. If they re-sign Liriano, sign Baker(who has a real live arm when healthy), hope that Gibson is ready, and then sign Grienke as your fourth starter. That would be 4 strong arms with good stuff. Then have Diamond as your other starter--that is a pretty good staff. A lot of big ifs! Also, I think most fans want a competitive team next year. Not a repeat of the last two seasons.

[peterb18]

I think they should keep him. If they re-sign Liriano, sign Baker(who has a real live arm when healthy), hope that Gibsouran is ready, and then sign Grienke as your fourth starter. That would be 4 strong arms with good stuff. Then have Diamond as your other starter--that is a pretty good staff. A lot of big ifs! Also, I think most fans want a competitive team next year. Not a repeat of the last two seasons.

I must add that I don't think he will want to come back to the Twins. Probably wants to get away from Anderson and the pitch to contact philosophy. A pitcher like him just needs to bust the ball in there and let the natural movement take place. He is at his best when he doesn't think too much and become overwhelmed. He is more of a natural.

[TheLeviathan]

I must add that I don't think he will want to come back to the Twins. Probably wants to get away from Anderson and the pitch to contact philosophy. A pitcher like him just needs to bust the ball in there and let the natural movement take place. He is at his best when he doesn't think too much and become overwhelmed. He is more of a natural.

"Pitch to contact" = "Throw strikes" = "Bust the ball in the zone". That's all it is. You can argue he needs to hear a different term for it, but they are all the same.

 

Twins have gotten WAY too much flack for that advice to Liriano from day 1.

[DaveW]

Is Liriano the most frustrating player in not only the history of this franchise, but in all of baseball as well?

 

I have no idea what I want them to do with Frankie as I am sure he will turn to crappy Liriano again if they sign him to a 2 year deal, but I could very well see him turning into CY Young Liriano if he signs elsewhere...like St. Louis..grrr....

[gunnarthor]

"Pitch to contact" = "Throw strikes" = "Bust the ball in the zone". That's all it is. You can argue he needs to hear a different term for it, but they are all the same.

 

Twins have gotten WAY too much flack for that advice to Liriano from day 1.

Agreed. As to the topic, I think we should hold onto right up the deadline, hope he continues to improve and, if he does, get a good deal for him or offer him arbitration (which he might accept). I don't want the Twins to trade him for Dustin Martin/Drew Butera type deal.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There's a few things to consider with this, the biggest is whether the Twins view themselves as contenders next year.. If they do, they are going to need Liriano. I'm going to assume that while they may publicly say they are, in private, they are writing off next year and will trade him, hopefully for a front line starter in A+/AA to complement the crop of hitting prospects that are coming through the system. If they can get that for him, they should move him in a heartbeat.

 

I'd be leary of offering him too big a pay day... His history is eratic enough that he will not likely be a team's top aquisition. If the Twins offer him the 12M to ensure a draft pick, they may be shocked when he accepts arb with the hope of having a second good season and getting a payday.

[jorgenswest]

It is good news that he looks like a player with value again.

 

The Twins can set the bar for a Dan Hudson level pitching prospect. BBA had Hudson at #66 and Chicago's #3 entering 2010.

 

It may not be reasonable that they will get that offer. In that case, they can offer him a 12.4 million/1 year contract. That level will guarantee compensation of two picks if he chooses free agency.

 

His talent is worth the risk that he will accept the one year deal.

 

With Liriano, any decision is a risk. The Twins may turn down an offer of middling prospects and then watch him fall apart or come up injured after the trade deadline. At that point, offering a compensation level deal wouldn't make sense and the Twins would be left empty handed.

 

I would hold out for a good pitching prospect and risk the reasonable possibility that Twins will end up with nothing.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I think they should keep him. If they re-sign Liriano, sign Baker(who has a real live arm when healthy), hope that Gibson is ready, and then sign Grienke as your fourth starter. That would be 4 strong arms with good stuff. Then have Diamond as your other starter--that is a pretty good staff. A lot of big ifs! Also, I think most fans want a competitive team next year. Not a repeat of the last two seasons.

Re-sign Baker and Liriano??????? LUDICROUS!!! That would take $20mill. of our (hopefully) 100mill. payroll not counting Mauer. Neither has shown he is capable of being an ace (Verlander, CC level) for more than a month at a time. (and those months are few and far between). If we did re-sign both, there would be absolutely ZERO dollars for any free agent.

 

Trade Liriano for any two minor leaguers and whatever else we can get. Maybe like Lohse he will have ONE good year elsewhere. Maybe not--but only one. No GM is gonna give us much for Frankie. No GM is gonna give Frankie a $10 million contract for 2013 that Twins have to.

[DaveW]

Re-sign Baker and Liriano??????? LUDICROUS!!! That would take $20mill. of our (hopefully) 100mill. payroll not counting Mauer. Neither has shown he is capable of being an ace (Verlander, CC level) for more than a month at a time. (and those months are few and far between). If we did re-sign both, there would be absolutely ZERO dollars for any free agent.

 

Trade Liriano for any two minor leaguers and whatever else we can get. Maybe like Lohse he will have ONE good year elsewhere. Maybe not--but only one. No GM is gonna give us much for Frankie. No GM is gonna give Frankie a $10 million contract for 2013 that Twins have to.

No way would Baker and Liriano get 20mm on the free agent market.

[jorgenswest]

The only way to keep Baker is to pick up his option for about 9 million. If allowed to be a free agent, he will sign elsewhere. While that will likely be less than 9 million, he will no longer be a Twin.

 

If Liriano continues to pitch well, the only way to have a shot a keeping him is to offer the compensation level of 12.4 million.

 

The point is that in order for the Twins to keep these two, they will need to budget 21 million. The likelihood that they will get less in the market is irrelevant, because they won't stay with the Twins for less.

 

The only good side of both of these deals is they will be one year commitments to players with an up side. The risks are overwhelmingly obvious.

[boney]

If they get a good offer anytime befroe the trade deadline the should jump on it imo. Liriano's biggest problem (even bigger than his mechanics) has always been his own head. It could take one bad inning, say an error, a walk and a bloop double to ruin the value he's built up with these last few starts.

[PopRiveter]

I think you could realistically offer both Baker an Liriano a low-end, 2 year deal with incentives. Maybe $7mil + incentives/yr for Frankie. For Baker, offer $4+incentives for 2013 and $7+incentives for 2014. If the pitchers outperform the base rate, they earn what they believe they are potentially worth, but the club would limit risk with pitchers who are currently known by everyone in baseball to be high-risk. If it takes more than the above to sign either of them, you have to look elsewhere.

[StormJH1]

About 2 months ago, this question seemed absurd because Liriano's ERA was in the neighborhood of 10.00. Now he looks like a Top 25 starter again. I don't get it. I think Twins fans have accepted the fact that he'll have some degree of success wherever he ends up. The guy is in his 5th season after returning from Tommy John, and in only one of those seasons (2010) has he put together "front of the rotation" numbers.

 

Even worse (and this sticks in my head more than the numbers), he completely fell apart in September in both 2008 and 2010 against mediocre AL Central opponents, in critical games down the stretch when the rest of the rotation seemed to be doing well. He's a total headcase, and while there's clearly something there, I would much rather have the budget flexibility for signing other starters or improving positional players.

 

Ironically (and one of the reasons some are tempted to keep him), if there was a type of free agent pitcher the Twins should target this offseason, it would be a slightly younger version of Liriano: A post-hype guy who seems to have something left in the tank, but has been marred by inconsistency to go with his considerable upside.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

We all like the Edwin Jackson comps, but think no one will give Liriano $10m? Jackson has a year of service time on Liriano (so one more payday, essentially) and got $11m in his first go-around in free agency (granted he earned more his arbitration years). I also read on other sites (because TwinsDaily wasn't up yet), where many - though not all - would have endorsed giving Jackson the contract the Nationals did.

 

I'm not trying to say its a no-brainer to keep Liriano for the rest of year and hope he accepts arbitration. But I think there are worse ways to potentially spend $12.5m. I would take the risk, under the belief that there is a 25% chance he accepts and a 75% chance he wants to test the waters.

 

Liriano has probably earned between $8-9m for next year on the FA market... and if he continues to pitch like he has been since May 30, he could earn a lot more...