Alex Meyer Moved to Bullpen

[diehardtwinsfan]

No. The whole point of the amazing and counterintuitive research by Voros McCracken (sp) was that a baseball that is hit fair by a batter that wasn't a homerun will be converted in to an out about 30% of the time, regardless of who is pitching. If a pitcher has balls fall for hits 42% of the time one year, his overall numbers will look awful, and much worse than his career norms. You can expect regression to his career norms. If a pitcher has 22% of the balls put in play fall for hits, his numbers will be much better than his career numbers, and will likely worsen later.

 

Fielding ability doesn't really effect BABIP in the big picture either. That's how you can have pitchers in the same rotation in the same year with wildly different BABIP.

The issue I have with this is that the same size is all MLB pitchers. You put you or I out there, and I bet a lot more batted balls fall for hits.... call me crazy. That's the concern I have about Meyer. His stuff right now is more hittable, which is why he's not pitching at the MLB level. I wouldn't be shocked if there's some confidence issues, not to mention tinkering going on. That's part of baseball. Hopefully he learns some things in the pen that can keep him a starter going forward.

 

I'm not sure there was ever a real transition. The Twins have more hard throwers now than in the past, but so does every other club. The Twins are still dead last in strikeouts.

As for the Twins MLB staff on strike outs... I think those numbers will change over the next couple years. I don't think they are last all throughout the minors, and I see those numbers changing as guys move on. I suspect Gibson might be traded this offseason and Pelfrey will be gone. The pen will see some improvement as guys from the minors start replacing some of the major league options who aren't doing so hot.

[markos]

 

No. The whole point of the amazing and counterintuitive research by Voros McCracken (sp) was that a baseball that is hit fair by a batter that wasn't a homerun will be converted in to an out about 30% of the time, regardless of who is pitching. If a pitcher has balls fall for hits 42% of the time one year, his overall numbers will look awful, and much worse than his career norms. You can expect regression to his career norms. If a pitcher has 22% of the balls put in play fall for hits, his numbers will be much better than his career numbers, and will likely worsen later.

Fielding ability doesn't really effect BABIP in the big picture either. That's how you can have pitchers in the same rotation in the same year with wildly different BABIP.

The latest research seems to indicate that McCracken's original thesis was too strong, and that there is a lot more evidence now (particularly using the latest Statcast data) that pitchers do indeed control batted-ball results. Here is an article just this week talking about it: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-baseballs-exit-velocity-is-five-parts-hitter-one-part-pitcher/

 

Now, I completely agree that his .426 BABIP is mostly due to some bad luck. However, I don't think it is so simple to say that it is entirely bad luck, as there are a lot of factors within Meyer's control that do matter. Two things that were mentioned in the article that may be meaningful in Meyer's case. First, getting into advantageous counts is one of the best ways for pitchers to suppress BABIP. Meyer has really struggled with control, so probably has been behind in the count a lot. Second, throwing a lot of straight four-seam fastballs is also a good way to run a higher than normal BABIP, as batters make the best contact on those kind of pitches. That is what Meyer throws, and there were comments that the Twins are trying to get him to change his arm-slot in order to get better movement on his fastball.

 

More important than the outrageous BABIP, it is very concerning that Meyer's strikeout rate has dropped by 20% from last year, and his walk-rate has increased by 15%. These are the big red-flags that things aren't right with him.

[twinssouth]

Now we're hearing from the press that it's his arm slot, pitches coming in flat, need to elevate it to get more movement. So what happened in 1 year. Last year he thru 3/4 arm slot with outstanding secondary stuff where he would get his strikeouts. This year he's grooving everything. I'm sure the coaches said listen kid, if you want to make it to the bigs, we need fewer walks, pitch to contact, go deeper into the game. So he compensates and look what happens. To the bullpen. How in the hel???? is this going to help his control. Ok, he raises his arm, ball comes in greater angle more movement, more strikeouts. But, he'll be back to the walks, now in then. Well now we're back to square one, his old self; awesome stuff with propensity to walks. This is what bothers me about the coaching, using the cookie cutter approach. No two pitchers are alike. They should have worked off Meyer's strengths to improve his weakness. Now, I admit, Meyer himself has a responsibility and it sounds like he has by putting a lot of pressure on himself. This is frustrating. I've seen him pitch and he's a unique talent. Ok, I'm done ranting, I'll accept the bullpen role (short term only) and ready to move on.

[ashbury]

Now we're hearing from the press that it's his arm slot, pitches coming in flat, need to elevate it to get more movement. So what happened in 1 year.

His shoulder hurts?

[markos]

 

His shoulder hurts?

Didn't Parker post something from Spring Training that seemed to indicate that Meyer's arm slot was lower than past seasons? Or am I imagining this?

[Willihammer]

 

Didn't Parker post something from Spring Training that seemed to indicate that Meyer's arm slot was lower than past seasons? Or am I imagining this?

He did, there was a thread on it. Meyer was pulled early from his last start in 2014 with shoulder soreness. I'd bet money the lower arm slot in 2015 is a result of that.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just to help me understand. We can't criticize trades that don't work out. If true, can we compliment ones that do work out?

Trading for a super tall pitcher was very risky. They took the risk. What I recall people saying was that it was the kind of trade they should be making, but since he was in A ball, we could not judge the trade for several years. It is approaching several years.......

sure you can criticize a trade that doesn't work out, and I can defend it. Since then we've discovered that the strength in CF wasn't quite there that TR thought he had, and I will be the first to criticize TR about the CF situation over the last few years.

 

It might be a bit soon to say it was a failed trade, but we're getting close. Regardless I defend it for intent. Prospects don't always have success at the majors and maybe Meyer doesn't, or maybe he becomes a very good reliever, or can regain starting form and recover.

[nicksaviking]

He did, there was a thread on it. Meyer was pulled early from his last start in 2014 with shoulder soreness. I'd bet money the lower arm slot in 2015 is a result of that.

What's the problem here, he's got two arms doesn't he?

[h2oface]

 

The Twins are still dead last in strikeouts.

Not for the month of May! 27th with a 13 K cushion at 131.... only 84 behind the leader, the Brewers at 215. Things are looking up!

[jokin]

 

A Len 3 article today seems to clear it up a little more:  demoted to bullpen to take some of the pressure off and clear his head and work on his arm angle.  He'll be back as a starter.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-notes-meyer-sent-to-bullpen-at-class-aaa-rochester/304789931/

 

Of course.. everyone off the ledge now?

[jokin]

 

Not for the month of May! 27th with a 13 K cushion. Things are looking up!

 

 

We're #27... we're #27!  (for May)

 

Of course, the Twins were also #27 last August.  And were only #30 in April in 2014- with respect to individual month results, but still ended up being #30.  Good chance they'll still be #30 in 2015.  (Meyer in the pen would help put a dent in that deficit relative to the rest of the league).

[Dantes929]

 

You're assuming everything else stays the same.  IF we would decided to hold on to Denard, we likely would have traded Hicks, Arcia, or Rosario who were still prospects.  Who would they have returned?  More?  Less?  Maybe we could have even got something for Benson.  Who knows what other roster decisions may have impacted the club.  A few wins on a 90 loss team doesn't necessarily mean much, but, those decisions add up.  Maybe the team has been crippled waiting on Meyer.  Maybe if we're not waiting on Meyer to be an ace, and we're a few wins closer to contending, we go after Lester, Smardja, or Shields instead of Nolasco or Santana.  The truth is we've been scrambling to replace Span since he's left.  We've also probably been too dependent on waiting for Meyer to develop.  Both have likely set our rebuild back several years as evident by the numerous transactions made to address their voids.  That said, I would certainly make that sort of deal again provided we just got unlucky, and not out-scouted.  It certainly looks like Washington knew what they had back then, and worse, knew what we had better than we knew what we had.

The assumptions can work in the opposite way also.   .  Currently, we are doing well with good guys coming up.   Gibson is pitching great and maybe we would have made him and May part of a package that returns an "ace" that ends up needing surgery..   Maybe keeping Span causes us to trade Buxton or not get him in the first place.   Lastly, maybe Meyer ends up an ace after all. Demotion in early May 2015 is hardly a death knell for his career.    It was a good trade at the time.   Maybe it ends up being a great trade.  Maybe all the decisions end up with a WS title whereas going the other way would have continued the 90 loss seasons.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I disagree with this. Have you seen the Minor League board that Seth just posted this morning? Multiple pitchers with video-like numbers. Starters and relievers. A temporary failure of a big-name pitching prospect is not a failure of the developing system.

name the Twins pitching prospects of the last decade to have worked out as above average MLB starting pitchers for the Twins. Johan and ummm Gibson, sorta, the jury is still out. Prospects are just that, until they prove it at the bigs. That's why the Span and Revere trades were good for both sides at the time. If May and Meyer were locks to be everything the scouts said they were, wouldn't you get more than decent starting CFers?