Alex Meyer Moved to Bullpen

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just because "most posters" agree on something, I don't know that that is a good thing. I hated the one for one trade - an leadoff hitting above average major league centerfielder for a AA minor league hope. No time travel needed. Even little Ben Revere brought a major league pitcher and and minor league pitcher. I liked that trade just for the 2 for one, and getting rid of the noodle arm. To me, the Span/Meyer trade is already a proven bad deal because Meyer didn't start helping the team last year. Span could very well be a free agent by the time Meyer makes the show, if he ever does now. 3 years of valuable play in the majors compared to a prospect that devalues himself just about every time he takes the mound. Didn't like it then, and don't like it now. How many other new pitchers have made the show since the trade? Washington definitely didn't have that much faith in him. I still hope and root for Meyer, and wanted him up last year. Good luck to him. He needs it now.

the span deal happened first, and value is always relative to the rest of the market. The Revere deal happened in a more scarce market for outfielders which made Revere a higher priced commodity. The Twins had already traded Span and didn't have another option with ML experience, but felt Hicks could make the jump, so the risk was higher for the Twins too. Both deals had the right principle applied, just neither reaped immediate dividends. I don't think it's fair to say that the Nationals valued Meyer less than other pitchers in their system, they traded from a position of strength to improve a position of weakness. The Nationals valued Span enough to give up Meyer to get him.

[HitInAPinch]

 

You can not say that. How much have you seen Meyer? You can't say that just from seeing someone a few times, when you evaluate pitchers you have to see 20-25 innings before you can pass any judgment like that.

I've seen enough video of Meyer that I can tell you this with absolute confidence:  Meyer does not keep a consistent release point.  When he drops his arm angle down, flat out sidearm, he's very hittable.  Not much movement on his pitches.  When he stays up top, his pitches have a lot more movement.  Fixing mechanics isn't always an easy fix.

 

On the other hand, Betances is a high octane, balls-to-the-walls pitcher.  Max effort on every pitch.  Hence the 135k's in 90 innings.  His problem is all of the above.  He burns out after, maybe, a couple innings.  He can no longer control that big body and it gets really ugly.  Simple fix:  watch the pitch count.

Oh yeah, when Betances tries to pump it up to 100mph, his delivery goes, nuts, too

[Mike Sixel]

Just to help me understand. We can't criticize trades that don't work out. If true, can we compliment ones that do work out?

 

Trading for a super tall pitcher was very risky. They took the risk. What I recall people saying was that it was the kind of trade they should be making, but since he was in A ball, we could not judge the trade for several years. It is approaching several years.......

[HitInAPinch]

A Len 3 article today seems to clear it up a little more:  demoted to bullpen to take some of the pressure off and clear his head and work on his arm angle.  He'll be back as a starter.

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-notes-meyer-sent-to-bullpen-at-class-aaa-rochester/304789931/

[dgwills]

I still think the trade was a good idea. Span was not enough to make the Twins a winner the last few years.   When you take risks and/or gambles you can't judge them by the results. You can only judge them by the information you had at the time and if the gamble was worth the risk you were taking. It clearly was to me.

 

[drjim]

 

Meyer had actually only completed A+ ball at the time of the trade, this was a very risky deal, and a little one-sided towards the Nats who were getting pretty much a sure thing, Span's concussion issues notwithstanding.  I recall that I was pretty concerned that the Twins, who at the time were desperately in need of immediate help in the SP department, insist on a serviceable SP from the Nats as part of the deal.    I also posted Dave Cameron's negative review of the trade. with respect to the risk involved with Meyer.  Terry Ryan simply said something to the effect that "this was the cost and risk in trying to acquire a top-end SP."  

 

I still like Meyer a lot, but I'm not sure how anyone can say that this deal has not been a huge win for the Nats, thus far.

 

For clarity, does anyone actually say this trade has been anything but a huge win for the Nationals so far? It would be impossible to say otherwise, because Meyer hasn't pitched in the majors yet.

 

Acquired contractual control of Span ends after this season and Meyer may still contribute in some form, perhaps substantially, perhaps very little, perhaps for up to 6.5 years. But so far, some value always trumps no value, but I would hesitate to close the book on the trade ledger until it is actually complete.

[drjim]

 

Just to help me understand. We can't criticize trades that don't work out. If true, can we compliment ones that do work out?

Trading for a super tall pitcher was very risky. They took the risk. What I recall people saying was that it was the kind of trade they should be making, but since he was in A ball, we could not judge the trade for several years. It is approaching several years.......

 

Why can't you criticize the trade?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I still think the trade was a good idea. Span was not enough to make the Twins a winner the last few years.   When you take risks and/or gambles you can't judge them by the results. You can only judge them by the information you had at the time and if the gamble was worth the risk you were taking. It clearly was to me.

 

The history of tall pitchers says otherwise. 

[Old Twins Cap]

If I am the Nationals GM, I'm feeling really good about my relationship with the Twins.

 

First they get Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps.  Plus defense, plus hitter behind the dish for a below average reliever.  Absolute robbery.

 

Then they get Span for three strong seasons while Meyer whittles away in MiLB. 

 

Ramos and Span would look awfully good right now in Twins jerseys.

[Johnsonalexpaul]

I'm going to find it hilarious when he leaves the twins and becomes a great starting pitcher. He should have been in the mlb rotation already.

[jorgenswest]

BABIP against Alex Meyer this year is .426. It takes 820 balls in play for that number to stabilize so it is not a result of change in skill. It is extremely bad luck. The number of hits on balls in play must be messing with his head and effecting his pitching. He might be trying to make adjustments that he really doesn't have to make. His career BABIP numbers in full seasons run .284-.330.

 

At the other end of the spectrum is Chih-Wei Hu with BABIP of .238.

 

It is amazing how an early season range in BABIP can really impact perception of future performance and skill level.

 

http://minorleaguecentral.com/team?aff=MIN&y=2015&table=5&split=200&age=99&amod=%3C=&time=0&q=&ymod==&dyear=99&rmod==&round=99&hand=-1&type=pitcher&table=0

[Vanimal46]

I get why we made the trade at the time to acquire a guy with top of the rotation potential. However at the end of the day if we got just a middle reliever for Span, that's another loss for our trade history with TR. I'm not calling for his head....just making a mental note for evaluating him at the end of this season.

[goulik]

I get why we made the trade at the time to acquire a guy with top of the rotation potential. However at the end of the day if we got just a middle reliever for Span, that's another loss for our trade history with TR. I'm not calling for his head....just making a mental note for evaluating him at the end of this season.

Looking at bad trades as a reason to knock a GM is not a good measure of a GM in isolation. Every GM will end up with their share of bad trades and therefore the longer the tenure, the more bad trades on their head. I think we need advanced stats on GMs. For instance a trade history effect + or - (THE+/-).

[kellyvance]

 

Two reasons to move to the bullpen:

- Simplify his pitching mechanics

- Help MLB club this year

 

Nothing says he'll stay in the bullpen or return to be a starting pitcher next year.

 

Trade - results & timing

- Results will be uneven in the short term when you trade a veteran for a prospect

- Span would have help the Twins win 4-5 wins a year for the past three years - who cares. The Twins timing to win is the next six years and hopefully more after that.

I have to agree with this.  Span was a solid CF, but when you have a chance to get a dominant pitcher, its  a risk you have to take. Plus, the Twins at the time felt they had other guys in CF. Revere, Hicks and a minor system bringing up Bux and Rosario etc.

They need to change the mindset of pitching to contact. Get guys with rare stuff and be patient. Because those guys need it. Nobody was talking about Nolan Ryan in 1967-68. He had to work through wildness early in his career too.  I think the Twins know their SP is a log jam and Milone deserves the next promotion, but their bullpen needs fresh arms. So this move is maybe Meyer's quickest route to the show.

[kab21]

 

Just to help me understand. We can't criticize trades that don't work out. If true, can we compliment ones that do work out?

Trading for a super tall pitcher was very risky. They took the risk. What I recall people saying was that it was the kind of trade they should be making, but since he was in A ball, we could not judge the trade for several years. It is approaching several years.......

We can judge an individual move as working out or not but criticizing the new emphasis the Twins have in pitchers (stuff), the FO, the AAA pitching coach or anyone else based on one risky prospect is silly.

[jorgenswest]

A similar trade this winter might have been Berrios for Desmond Jennings.

 

Jennings would age been coming off his age 27 season rather than Span's 28. Jennings has a far better prospects pedigree. They both were coming off similar seasons ranking around 10th among CFs with a 3.3 WAR. Span had the concussion issue. Jennings is a clear step up from Span.

 

Berrios is BA number 36 prospect with 8 starts in AA compared to Meyer's BA ranking of 59 and high A experience. Both have height concerns. Berrios is a step up from Meyer.

 

If you didn't think Span for Meyer was a good deal at the time, a trade of Berrios for Jennings must look pretty good to you.

 

It is so hard to acquire a top of the rotation starter. It might take 4 similar trades to end up the winner in one trade. If you win, the pay off is so great that it is a reasonable risk (even knowing that there is a high likelihood that three years down the road someone will be writing about the failed trade).

[adjacent]

 

It's absurd that the Twins can't develop pitching prospects. I just find it completely stupid to send him to the bullpen. We don't need bullpen guys in the future. We need high end starting pitching, I have no idea how that's not clear to the Twins management at this point. We've had the worst starting pitching in the league 2 years in a row and look where that got us. I think he needs a change of scenery like maybe a call-up, he's 25 and not getting any younger. I don't know why they wait when we have had awful pitching.

I disagree with this. Have you seen the Minor League board that Seth just posted this morning? Multiple pitchers with video-like numbers. Starters and relievers. A temporary failure of a big-name pitching prospect is not a failure of the developing system.

[jokin]

 

 

Trade - results & timing

- Results will be uneven in the short term when you trade a veteran for a prospect

- Span would have help the Twins win 4-5 wins a year for the past three years - who cares. The Twins timing to win is the next six years and hopefully more after that.

 

Results might have been different for Meyer, with a better developmental/implementation plan (like sending him to the pen first, SP second, right after ST 2014).... in the meantime, there is a lost opportunity cost and a timing cost with respect to maximizing Span's value with respect to return on investment to the team,  it's more than just 4-5 wins per year.

[gil4]

 

 With the arms the Twins have on the horizon, I'd be satisfied at this point if he can become a harder throwing version Jon Rauch.

 

Jon Rauch was pretty food for a soft-tossing almost-7-footer.  If he had 3-4 mph more on his fastball, he would have been scary.

[gil4]

 

If you didn't think Span for Meyer was a good deal at the time, a trade of Berrios for Jennings must look pretty good to you.
 

 

If I thought the Twins were on the verge of contending and were in need of a CF (and had a deep rotation like the Nats did), I would have made that trade in the off-season (assuming Jennings was healthy then; he sure isn't now.) 

 

I thought the Span-Meyer trade was reasonable for both sides, but the circumstances for the Twins coming in to 2015 didn't match the Nats in 2013.  At least a year from contending, top prospect is a CF and hopefully gets a Sept call-up, rotation still needs some top-end help.  We'd be dealing away one need to fill another.

[Hrbowski]

 

I've seen enough video of Meyer that I can tell you this with absolute confidence:  Meyer does not keep a consistent release point.  When he drops his arm angle down, flat out sidearm, he's very hittable.  Not much movement on his pitches.  When he stays up top, his pitches have a lot more movement.  Fixing mechanics isn't always an easy fix.

 

On the other hand, Betances is a high octane, balls-to-the-walls pitcher.  Max effort on every pitch.  Hence the 135k's in 90 innings.  His problem is all of the above.  He burns out after, maybe, a couple innings.  He can no longer control that big body and it gets really ugly.  Simple fix:  watch the pitch count.

Oh yeah, when Betances tries to pump it up to 100mph, his delivery goes, nuts, too

Actually when Betances was Meyer's age he was pretty much the same.

[Mike Sixel]

Hard to argue the Twins are good at drafting and developing pitchers... ...how many in the majors were drafted by them? How many even spent 2 years in their minor league system? How bad has the pitching been for several years now?

 

Who is criticizing the FO for one trade?

[jokin]

 

Wheeler is just 26 years old and has parts of three years in the big leagues. Maybe not terrific numbers, but I like this kind of signing. There's no downside. He's still fairly young. He's had a lot of success. He's been where most of the guys want to get. And, maybe something clicks. It's a minor league signing. He's not on the 40 man, and right now, he's not blocking anyone. If he ends up being "done" (at 26) when Sano is ready, it's easy to release him (or one of the other corners that are older). 

 

I"d mind it a loss less if they actually release one of the other older corners now and if Wheeler had at  least one option remaining. 

 

If Sano and Kepler have another month in June like they're having in May (Sano .304 BA/.907 OPS ... Kepler .397 BA/1.068 OPS), can we assume that the Twins will have no hesitation in moving them up?  That AAA experience is like finishing school, even for a short stint, it should be beneficial in making the final jump.

[Tibs]

BABIP against Alex Meyer this year is .426. It takes 820 balls in play for that number to stabilize so it is not a result of change in skill. It is extremely bad luck. The number of hits on balls in play must be messing with his head and effecting his pitching. He might be trying to make adjustments that he really doesn't have to make. His career BABIP numbers in full seasons run .284-.330.

 

At the other end of the spectrum is Chih-Wei Hu with BABIP of .238.

 

It is amazing how an early season range in BABIP can really impact perception of future performance and skill level.

 

http://minorleaguecentral.com/team?aff=MIN&y=2015&table=5&split=200&age=99&amod=%3C=&time=0&q=&ymod==&dyear=99&rmod==&round=99&hand=-1&type=pitcher&table=0

I'm more inclined to believe a BABIP of .426 has a bit more to do with pitching poorly than straight bad luck. Suggesting it is bad luck is a bit out there in my opinion and if bad luck is why he is performing so poorly, I think the coaching staff could realize that and keep him in the rotation.

[jorgenswest]

I'm more inclined to believe a BABIP of .426 has a bit more to do with pitching poorly than straight bad luck. Suggesting it is bad luck is a bit out there in my opinion and if bad luck is why he is performing so poorly, I think the coaching staff could realize that and keep him in the rotation.

His FIP is 3.75 which is almost the same as last year's 3.66.

 

He needed to move to the bullpen but the high BABIP certainly could have done a number on his confidence.

[kab21]

 

Hard to argue the Twins are good at drafting and developing pitchers... ...how many in the majors were drafted by them? How many even spent 2 years in their minor league system? How bad has the pitching been for several years now?

Who is criticizing the FO for one trade?

Wouldn't you say that Meyer was one of the first signs that the Twins were shifting their focus from the likely cause of that drought?  For too many years the Twins went after control type college pitchers that lacked significant upside (aside from Garza).  Now they are at least bringing in pitchers with stuff in trades, the draft and internationally. 

[Dantes929]

It appears that some here think this move is absolutely irrevocable.  Personally I don't see how a move to the pen will benefit him.   Just fewer innings to work on his command.   Calling the trade results a done deal now like this move proves Meyer will never succeed?    Twins can't develop pitchers?  May and Gibson appear to be doing ok as well as Berrios and others in the minors.    I liked this trade at the time so would not back up and say otherwise now.     Span is having a career year.   His prior two would have helped  the Twins win a game or two more but who really cares?    Meyer could just as easily be a great pitcher by now.  Sometimes it is just up to the player.    This is his gut check time.  We will see how he responds.  

[drivlikejehu]

 

Wouldn't you say that Meyer was one of the first signs that the Twins were shifting their focus from the likely cause of that drought?  For too many years the Twins went after control type college pitchers that lacked significant upside (aside from Garza).  Now they are at least bringing in pitchers with stuff in trades, the draft and internationally. 

 

I'm not sure there was ever a real transition. The Twins have more hard throwers now than in the past, but so does every other club. The Twins are still dead last in strikeouts.

 

I certainly don't see a difference with respect to draft philosophy. The Twins have long taken actual or projected power pitchers high in the draft... Ryan Mills, Adam Johnson, Scott Tyler, Jesse Crain, JD Durbin, Jay Rainville, Shooter Hunt, Billy Bullock... Scott Baker and Matt Fox were seen as having a mix of stuff and command... the Twins have very rarely drafted finesse pitchers in the first two rounds, going back 20 years.

 

Of course, their drafted power pitchers rarely have worked out, but that's not a matter of philosophy. The organization has just been horrible at acquiring and developing good pitchers.

[Jham]

 

It appears that some here think this move is absolutely irrevocable.  Personally I don't see how a move to the pen will benefit him.   Just fewer innings to work on his command.   Calling the trade results a done deal now like this move proves Meyer will never succeed?    Twins can't develop pitchers?  May and Gibson appear to be doing ok as well as Berrios and others in the minors.    I liked this trade at the time so would not back up and say otherwise now.     Span is having a career year.   His prior two would have helped  the Twins win a game or two more but who really cares?    Meyer could just as easily be a great pitcher by now.  Sometimes it is just up to the player.    This is his gut check time.  We will see how he responds.  

You're assuming everything else stays the same.  IF we would decided to hold on to Denard, we likely would have traded Hicks, Arcia, or Rosario who were still prospects.  Who would they have returned?  More?  Less?  Maybe we could have even got something for Benson.  Who knows what other roster decisions may have impacted the club.  A few wins on a 90 loss team doesn't necessarily mean much, but, those decisions add up.  Maybe the team has been crippled waiting on Meyer.  Maybe if we're not waiting on Meyer to be an ace, and we're a few wins closer to contending, we go after Lester, Smardja, or Shields instead of Nolasco or Santana.  The truth is we've been scrambling to replace Span since he's left.  We've also probably been too dependent on waiting for Meyer to develop.  Both have likely set our rebuild back several years as evident by the numerous transactions made to address their voids.  That said, I would certainly make that sort of deal again provided we just got unlucky, and not out-scouted.  It certainly looks like Washington knew what they had back then, and worse, knew what we had better than we knew what we had.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm more inclined to believe a BABIP of .426 has a bit more to do with pitching poorly than straight bad luck. Suggesting it is bad luck is a bit out there in my opinion and if bad luck is why he is performing so poorly, I think the coaching staff could realize that and keep him in the rotation.

No. The whole point of the amazing and counterintuitive research by Voros McCracken (sp) was that a baseball that is hit fair by a batter that wasn't a homerun will be converted in to an out about 30% of the time, regardless of who is pitching. If a pitcher has balls fall for hits 42% of the time one year, his overall numbers will look awful, and much worse than his career norms. You can expect regression to his career norms. If a pitcher has 22% of the balls put in play fall for hits, his numbers will be much better than his career numbers, and will likely worsen later.

 

Fielding ability doesn't really effect BABIP in the big picture either. That's how you can have pitchers in the same rotation in the same year with wildly different BABIP.