Article: Draft Prep: Twins Outfield Depth

[Seth Stohs]

We have viewed the Minnesota Twins depth at catcher, corner infield and middle infield in the last few days. Today, we continue this series by reviewing the outfielders in the organization. There are certainly some great names on the big league roster and through the system, especially in Chattanooga. What does it mean for the Twins 2015 draft, if anything?Have a look for yourself and let us know what you think.

 

 

Minnesota Twins: Oswaldo Arcia (LF), Aaron Hicks (CF), Torii Hunter (RF), Eddie Rosario (OF), Shane Robinson (OF), Eduardo Escobar (LF), Jordan Schafer (OF)

The current makeup of the Minnesota Twins outfield is certainly interesting. There is the veteran in Torii Hunter who, at 39, has been really good the last month. Aaron Hicks is finally back after starting the season with five strong weeks at Rochester. Eddie Rosario is another top ten prospect who is with the Twins. He hit the first pitch he saw in the big leagues out of the ballpark, but not surprisingly, he has struggled since. He’s still part of the future, but he needs time and patience. Oswaldo Arcia needs something. He’s still just 24, has 35 MLB home runs, but he has struggled and has not been able to stay healthy. Robinson and Schafer are ideally 4^th or 5^th outfielders. Escobar has been playing a lot of left field, for some reason.

 

 

Rochester Red Wings: Danny Ortiz (LF), Eric Farris (CF), Wilkin Ramirez (RF), Reynaldo Rodriguez (OF)

 

Ortiz is the young man in his group. He turned 25 in May. He spent half of the 2014 season in Rochester and was invited to big league camp. Eric Farris an infielder in the Brewers organization (he spent parts of two seasons in the big leagues), but when he came to the Twins a couple of years ago, he was pushed to the outfield, and he has performed well. Wilkin Ramirez and Reynaldo Rodriguez are also minor league veterans with pop in their bats. Rodriguez has played a lot of first base early this season.

 

 

Chattanooga Lookouts: Adam Brett Walker (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Travis Harrison (RF), Max Kepler (OF)

 

This is a pretty talented group of outfielders, isn’t it? 23-year-old Walker leads the Southern League in home runs. He has led his league in that category each of the last two seasons. Byron Buxton is generally considered the best prospect in baseball. He has nine triples this year in less than 40 games. Though he’s struggled and been streaky this season, after missing so much of last season, his defense remains elite. Harrison leads the Southern League in doubles with 14 and has been a fixture in the middle of the lineup for the Lookouts. Kepler has been playing some first base, but can also play all three outfield spots. He has been on fire since just before the calendar turned to May.

 

 

Ft. Myers Miracle: Zach Granite (LF), Jason Kanzler (CF), Chad Christensen (RF), Marcus Knecht (OF)

 

Zach Granite was the Twins choice for minor league hitter of the month in April. He was promoted to the Miracle with the turn of the calendar and has continued to hit and be an on-base machine. Kanzler and Christensen are two of the most athletically-gifted players in the organization. They both have a terrific combination of power and speed. Knecht came to the Twins at the end of spring training after the Canadian spent the last few years in the Blue Jays organization.

 

 

Cedar Rapids Kernels: Max Murphy (LF), Tanner English (CF), Zack Larson (RF), Trey Vavra (LF)

 

This is another talented group of outfielders. Minnesota native Murphy was the team’s ninth-round pick a year ago out of Bradley. He was the Appy League player of the year last year despite being promoted to the Kernels halfway through the season. He got off to a slow start with the Kernels this year, but he has been hitting very well in May. English is another very good athlete. He’s not tall, but he can pack a punch with his bat. Defensively, he is tremendous and frequently shows great range. Larson is a very intriguing hitting prospect, though he has not yet put up numbers this year. He was with the Kernels last year, but a torn hamstring cost him most of the season. Vavra has played a lot of left field as well for the Kernels this year. Generally, one of these four has been a DH most games.

 

 

Extended Spring Training: Dubal Baez, Edgar Corcino, Tyree Davis, Austin Diemer, Frank Encarnacion, Roberto Gonzalez, Amaurys Minier, Junior Amarante, Rowan Ebersonhn, Luis Martinez

 

Minier is the big name in this group. He was signed as a third baseman, but one year into his pro career, he moved to the outfield. Really, he’s a DH, but he has a ton of power potential. Corcino, Davis and Gonzalez are three tremendous athletes, but yet still raw in their baseball skill. My guess is that Baez, Corcino, Diemer, Encarnacion and Minier will go to Elizabethton, though a couple of them could move up to Cedar Rapids if there is a need.

 

Top 6 Prospects: 1.) Byron Buxton, 2.) Eddie Rosario, 3.) Max Kepler, 4.) Adam Brett Walker, 5.) Amaurys Minier, 6.) Travis Harrison

 

The Draft: The Twins like their athletes. Walker was drafted in the third round after three years of college, but the others in my Top 6 prospect list were high school hitters or international signings. The Twins typically will draft some college relievers in later rounds but really like athletes. It’s a trend that has shown success in the last 25 years. Torii Hunter, Denard Span, Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere are all good examples of toolsy outfielders taken by the Twins and developed into baseball players. Revere was the most advanced offensively of the group, but each developed their athleticism into baseball skills. Byron Buxton continues that line.

 

There are some interesting outfielders near the top of the draft. I can see the Twins taking a couple. Though this group of prospects is talented, and Hicks and Rosario are already in the big leagues and Buxton appears to be a future building block, depth is always good. Remember five years ago when the Twins (and their fans) thought they had a ton of outfield depth in the organization. It didn’t turn out so great for a couple of years. Hopefully the current group of outfield prospects will develop into strong major league players, but adding more talent is always a good thing.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

In the MiLB, there seems to be several/many "wait and see" types. Right now, this moment in time, that includes Buxton.  The hope is that there is now enough OF talent at the MLB level to give the MiLB talent another year to mature.

 

"Escobar has been playing a lot of left field, for some reason."  This just makes me sick.  Stunning waste of talent, especially considering Santana's problems, so far.

 

Arcia, Robinson and Hunter have shown their worth. Schafer has not [probably never will], Rosario probably needs AAA time to calm down a little and Hicks may have finally arrived.  Time will tell.

 

If things go well, the Twins will probably need to focus on both middle INF and OF in this draft.

 

 

[BoomBoom]

I watched the Lookouts this weekend and was very impressed with the overall talent there.  Though they struggled offensively in a couple of games, they still played with a presence of confidence.

 

Kepler played OF once and looked solid.,  Boy can he swing that bat.  Incredible hitting series.  He was the best player on the field during this series at the plate.

 

Buxton squared the ball up several times and I can't imagine anyone in baseball running faster than him.  He can fly.  He didn't attempt to steal bases as much as I thought he might.

 

Harrison was decent in the OF defensively, but seemed to be a better bat.  He hit around shifts and drives the ball all around the field.  A Doubles machine.

 

Walker really struggled offensively, but seemed to be a lot more disciplined with his zone.  He took a few BB & was called out looking several times on some questionable called strikes.  Most of them on 3-2 counts.  He didn't routinely chase pitches like I was told.  

 

CHEMISTRY & COMMUNICATION

This group of outfielders seem to play with a chemistry on defense.  They cover for each other well and communicate clearly (knock on wood).   Buxton tracked down several balls that would have been extras if it were anyone else out there.  Walker made two outstanding plays.  One game ending catch high against the wall in LF and the other was a leaping catch that only a 6'4" athlete could have made.  His vertical looks comfortable and with purpose.  Harrison made some nice diving attempts during the series, but came up short on most of them.  He does have the right mentality for the position.  Kepler played 1B most of the series, but you could see his athleticism as he turned singles into doubles.

 

The future is bright for the Twins OF.  Loved watching these kids enjoy the game with each other.   No one big times anyone.  They just love winning and it shows.

 

Also impressive for a future Twins OF:

*Buxton leads entire minors in triples (9) - 18 of 39 hits are XBH (46%)

*Walker leads all of AA in homers (10) - 19 of 34 hits are XBH (55%)

*Harrison leads Southern League in doubles (14) - 16 of 38 hits are XBH (42%)

*Kepler is top hitter on Lookouts thru May - 13 of 32 hits are XBH (41%)

[Hrbowski]

This and starting pitching are the Twins strengths, and I wouldn't be surprised if we took an outfielder or pitcher in the first round.

[blairpaul715]

If we go outfield, i want Tucker before Cameron, i read that we are hot for Cameron, i either hope not, or hope the Twins are right if they pick him........Otherwise i want Bregman , if available, or a pitcher that is not Aiken.........no chance Aiken is taken this early, right???

[curt1965]

"Oswaldo Arcia needs something."

 

Best comment, best analysis, best observation EVER!!!

 

Love him, BTW!

[Willihammer]

Let's say Sano wasn't part of the picture. Would Harrison be starting more games at 3B? How does his IF glove compare to his OF glove? Is his 3B glove better than Sano's?

[Seth Stohs]

 

Let's say Sano wasn't part of the picture. Would Harrison be starting more games at 3B? How does his IF glove compare to his OF glove? Is his 3B glove better than Sano's?

 

Harrison played OF in high school, including CF, so my thinking is he would have been moved to OF at some point. He worked really hard during that year in Ft. Myers, but the decision was made. Heplayed a few games at 3B in Ft. Myers last year. No, his glove isn't better than Sano's at 3B.

[Willihammer]

So his 3B glove is sub-par and his OF glove is... sub par?

[Seth Stohs]

 

So his 3B glove is sub-par and his OF glove is... sub par?

 

His OF glove is average or so. 

[jimbo92107]

Seth, great article.

 

BoomBoom, you too!

[GMinTraining]

The minor league outfield situation is really looking up. Something will have to give.  Look at how many outfielders will have to go on the 40 man roster this year?

Arcia

Hunter

Hicks

Rosario

Robinson

Shafer

Hermann
Nunez
Escobar

Kepler

 

Harrison

Walker

Buxton (just because he's better than everyone else)

 

All these guys (13) have or will be expected to play OF at some point in the MLB.

[blairpaul715]

 

The minor league outfield situation is really looking up. Something will have to give.  Look at how many outfielders will have to go on the 40 man roster this year?

Arcia

Hunter

Hicks

Rosario

Robinson

Shafer

Hermann
Nunez
Escobar

Kepler

 

Harrison

Walker

Buxton (just because he's better than everyone else)

 

All these guys (13) have or will be expected to play OF at some point in the MLB.

Robinson, Schafer, Nunez, Herrman, Hunter shouldnt be on team next yr, and Escobar, if on team, should be utility infielder only......So that leaves 7, about right.........not to say they wont have more, but that is how I would do it..........they will be a good topic coming up , who to leave on and off 40 man for Rule 5 purposes.

[DocBauer]

Forget the depth of the Twins OF situation in regard to the draft...in general terms. And forget any of the several talented OF's in A ball or lower specifically. Just at the ML, AAA and AA levels we have Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Ortiz, Walker, Buxton, Harrison and Kepler. That's 8 guys not including any trades or FA signings to build the OF with. (Or positions switches) Even if you dismiss Ortiz as any sort of top prospect, a solid 4th OF type, that leaves 7 legitimately talented prospects to work with.

 

I believe in taking the most talented player available. Guys wash out. Guys get traded. A HS OF could take 5 years to be ML ready, even if he's very talented, and things could change for a variety of reasons by the time that 5 year mark comes up.

 

But in a draft that is this convoluted and ambiguous, and then/now considering the organizational OF depth, I just wouldn't take an OF unless I was just totally certain he was not only the best player available, but the BPA by a large margin.

 

There is no Mauer-type prospect at C this year, or close, unfortunately. For while I feel the Twins have some interesting catching prospects in the system, it's probably the one spot, organizationally, where we don't have that top prospect we can really feel good about or seemingly count on.

 

With the organization flush with upwardly mobile talent, the parent club not untalented and seemingly turning a corner, perhaps a year early in some's opinion, the Twins should NOT be in the top 5 again in regard to the draft, or even the top 10, for some time again.

So while best overall talent selection theory exists, I feel the team should be taking a shot this year on best overall "projectable" talent.

 

In other words there may be someone, maybe a pitcher, maybe a position player, that reports say is an after 10 pick...but...has projectability that carries some risk of failure...but has legit top of the line potential. This is a year where the Twins shouldn't make the safe talent pick, but the talent pick with the highest potential reward.

[lightfoot789]

Walker is leading all of AA in homers and rbi as of May 24th.  He is 3rd in the minors in homers overall.  

 

Buxton is leading all minor leagues in triples and leading AA in runs scored.

 

And both of them are not hitting as well as Kepler and Harrison at this point.  

 

Lookout for those Lookout Outfielders