At the Quarter Pole

[COtwin]

It is nice to enjoy watching the Twins with the expectation that they could win again.  It has been so long.  Feels like were are in just about every game.  The last few years I have known we were going to lose and watched to see guys development.  Way more fun this way.  I hope we can continue this stretch and be playing meaningful games at the end of the season, but this is not the year to buy at the trade deadline.  Part of my problems with the Twins in the past was a tendency to play for the playoffs, not the World Series.  We were never really a threat since Santana and Lirianos killer year.  I don't want to see us trading away a solid prospect for a 3 month rental of a number oneish type pitcher.  And we definitely better not trade for bullpen arms, we have a ton of options in the minors and in the rotation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In the past 28 days, Nolasco has struck out 20 hitters in 21 innings. He's still giving up way too many hits but he has looked like a different pitcher of late. He deserves to continue down this road and see how it plays out.

 

A few other stats of note.

 

LOB% - 59.6 (yikes!)

HR/FB% - 3.7 (yeah, that won't hold up)

K% - 19.3 (fairly decent)

Zone% - 45.8 (this needs to improve)

First Strike % - 52.8 (also needs to improve)

 

Ricky has been a mixture of wild (throwing too many pitches), lucky (homers), and unlucky (that LOB% is brutal). It will be interesting to see if he adjusts what he can and whether luck will normalize.

[Dantes929]

 

from what I see, our rotation for the year has been towards the bottom in the AL.  Tied for 13th in FIP, with only the Blue Jays worse.  Yes, the FIP is quite a bit better than last year so far, but the game now is leaning in the pitchers favor and ERA and FIPs are dropping.

 

So while we are winning for sure, I wouldn't say our starting pitching is out of the woods or significantly better.  We'll take it though, cause we are winning, but I'd put it on timely hitting.

The sense that I get is that we are getting more quality starts.    ERA and all the advanced metrics (as far as I know) don't take into account the  order or manner in which they arrive.     Its why guys like Liriano and Gibson have value beyond the numbers.    A guy with an ERA of 5 might give up 5 runs each game or give up 3 runs in each of 3 games and then 11 runs in the 4th game.       Timely hitting and timely pitching go a little hand in hand.    Occasional 13-1 losses don't bother me.  Timely hitting only has value if the pitching has kept the game in a position to make it relevant.   .  

[jimmer]

 

It is nice to enjoy watching the Twins with the expectation that they could win again.  It has been so long.  Feels like were are in just about every game.  The last few years I have known we were going to lose and watched to see guys development.  Way more fun this way.  

This, this, a 1000 times this.

[stringer bell]

 

I guess it's pretty simple:  4.58 RS/game  vs.  4.42 RA/game.  Pythagorean has them at 21-19, so slightly outperforming.  I haven't been able to watch a ton of innings, but it seems to me the starters are keeping the squad in games and the offense is finding a way to win ball games.  Over the past three years, my impression was that our starters had us out of a game by the fourth inning.  It seems those games are few and far between this year. 

Taking the run-scoring numbers and converting that to winning makes sense and follows.  What doesn't follow is how a team with a less-than-.700 OPS third in run-scoring?  How is a team with a more than .720 OPS-against allowing fewer runs than the offense is scoring?  Couple that with a really limited running game and an acknowledged bottom-half defense and I am really surprised that the Twins have scored as many as they have and suppressed runs on pitching/defense as well as they have.  A quarter of the season is in the books, so the sample size isn't that small.

[jimmer]

 

The sense that I get is that we are getting more quality starts.    ERA and all the advanced metrics (as far as I know) don't take into account the  order or manner in which they arrive.     Its why guys like Liriano and Gibson have value beyond the numbers.    A guy with an ERA of 5 might give up 5 runs each game or give up 3 runs in each of 3 games and then 11 runs in the 4th game.       Timely hitting and timely pitching go a little hand in hand.    Occasional 13-1 losses don't bother me.  Timely hitting only has value if the pitching has kept the game in a position to make it relevant.   .  

while I get your overall point, and understand you may not be referring to the textbook definition of quality start, I would like to point out that we are in the bottom 5 in MLB for quality starts with only two teams having less than our team.

[Halsey Hall]

Attention Marketing Department:  After every Twins home game win at Target Field in the month of June a Dance Party will follow the game!  They can borrow my Malt Shop Memories CD's. 

[Dantes929]

 

while I get your overall point, and understand you may not be referring to the textbook definition of quality start, I would like to point out that we are in the bottom 5 in MLB for quality starts with only two teams having less than our team.

Thank you for that.   Now I have no idea why we are doing well      Rotation just seems more solid with more upside especially with Pelfrey's new found life and Milone and Santana waiting in the wings.   We are 6th in the majors in runs scored while sitting at 20th in OPS. so maybe it is just timely hitting like you suggest which will eventually adjust and we will all be crying again.  Then again maybe it is the OPS that will improve.   Much like saying Gibson was lucky to have his success given his strikeout total.   Maybe his low strikeout total was a result of bad luck.     Small sample size.  Witll be interesting what the next 40 games will bring.