Article: Kepler Shows Breakout Potential

[Cody Christie]

Max Kepler has been featured up and down Twins prospect lists since the Twins signed him as a teenager out of Europe. The list of successful major league players born in Europe is small but there's always been a little something extra with Kepler.His parents are both professional dancers so he's got a strong athletic background. Minnesota took it slow with Kepler allowing him to play three years in the rookie leagues. Over the last two seasons, he has worked through both Low-A and High-A and spent the fall in the Arizona Fall League. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster following the 2013 season and he's spent the majority of 2015 at Double-A.

 

The 2013 season had to be a low point for Kepler. He suffered an elbow injury early in the season and he didn't make it onto the field until the end of June. When he returned, he struggled at the plate hitting .237/.312/.424 with 23 extra-base hits in 61 games. In the AFL, he managed a .618 OPS with five doubles in 72 plate appearances. It wasn't a full season debut to write home about.

 

Things started trending in the right direction during the 2014 campaign. He was healthier and played in over 100 games with Fort Myers. His slugging percentage dipped a little bit (.393 SLG) but his batting average (.264 BA) and on-base percentage (.333 OBP) both improved. Kepler was also close to two years younger than the other hitters in the league so there were signs of good things to come.

 

This season Kepler is part of a stacked line-up in Chattanooga that includes the likes of top prospects Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Jorge Polanco. Up to this point in the season, he is outperforming many of the names ahead of him on top prospect lists.

 

Across 23 Double-A games this season, Kepler is batting .326/.363/.500 with 11 extra-base hits (entering play on 5/19). He hasn't had a slugging percentage of .500 or higher since his second trip through the Appalachian League back in 2012. He's also never hit over .300 at any level.

 

Besides improving his numbers at the plate, Kepler is also making waves with the other parts of his game. He's already stolen six bases this year after totaling six steals all of last season. His career high in steals is seven so he is well on his way to breaking that mark.

 

On defense, he's split time between all three outfield positions and first base. He's been perfect fielding in the outfield to go along with an assist from right field, the outfield spot he's played the most. At first base, he's committed two errors but his fielding percentage is still higher than it was last season.

 

Kepler's improvements this season definitely make him a player to watch. There's a good chance the Twins will see many of the top prospects debut at some point this season and this could mean Kepler shoots up prospect lists next off-season, with the potential to be a top 100 prospect in all of baseball.

 

 

There's still a lot of season left but Kepler has shown some early season signs that he's ready to break out in a big way.

 

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[Craig Arko]

Hmmm, looked at that picture with the article and the first thought was: young Justin Morneau.

[HitInAPinch]

Wow, a potential keeper who weighs less that 250! 

[Steve Penz]

Cody- is there any concerns about his low BB #s? He is not striking out but his obp could be higher with more walks.

[TheLeviathan]

Always been a believer this kid is going to contribute for us some day, excited to see that steam building.

[Wyatt1996]

May 10th I was slightly dropping Kepler on my Top 20... Now I have him near top 10... Love the kids potential

[h2oface]

Growing up in baseball.  I love it.

[Seth Stohs]

I posted this on Twitter this morning but might as well post it here as well... He's been pretty unreal.

 

 

In 18 games since 5/3, Kepler is hitting .409/.458/.652 (1.110) with 8 doubles, a triple and 2 home runs. 6 BB, 5 K.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Hmmm, looked at that picture with the article and the first thought was: young Justin Morneau.

 

I've written it many times, but Kepler is so similar to Morneau. Their build, the way they stand, the way they walk, and even talking to them, they're very similar. Kepler's fun to talk to. Very intelligent.

[clutterheart]

Staying healthy for most of the season is the key for him.  So far he hasn't done it but hopefully this year is different.

Edited May 21, 2015 by clutterheart

[Shane Wahl]

He is busting out in a big way this year. This is a surprise (maybe not that he is having a good year, but certainly this great of one so far). I would not have thought it going into the season, but September is going to be Max's time this year!

Even though he really has two options left, it will still be nice to see him in action in September. He isn't going back to the AFL.

[Cast of Thousands]

Still just 22 years old.  His development as of late has been pretty impressive.

 

Let's hope he keeps it rolling

[drivlikejehu]

Kepler and Morneau are very different as players... I partially remember BP's commentary on Morneau after his 2001 minor league season in A-ball - 'a championship-caliber first baseman... spreading the forbidden gospel of walks and power.'

 

Kepler's upside is to play good corner OF defense and hit for enough average to contribute offensively.

[Steve Lein]

Kepler has been my favorite prospect to track since he was signed.

 

I've said this several times here before, but it's been that way since watching him play 3 games with the Beloit Snappers roster in 2012 down at Spring Training.

 

That roster included Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas, and Eddie Rosario.

 

Kepler was the best player on the diamond for those games, and it wasn't even close.

 

He was something like 7-11 with 3 doubles, no K's, and a couple walks (I'd have to find my notebook from that trip for exact numbers) in those games. Everything he hit was a line drive, and he was fast.

 

Here's one of his doubles from that trip: http://www.twitpic.com/8zswq4

 

I was absolutely stunned he never played with Beloit that year.

[jmlease1]

Kepler is a guy who is going to put some pressure on Rosario and Arcia, and again: that's a good thing.

 

While I don't see him ever playing much CF in MLB (especially with Buxton and Hicks around) he could be a plus defender in either corner spot. It wouldn't bother me at all for Kepler to push Arcia to the DH slot and be able to run out an OF of Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario with Hicks as the 4th guy. That crew could run down a lot of balls out there and runners would be a lot more reluctant to take the extra base against those arms.

 

There's a talent flood coming soon as a few spots on this roster, and the Twins are going to have to make the smart/right choices in order to field the best team in the short term and keep the system stocked. It's a good problem to have, but a hard one for the GM. Who gets dealt and when?

 

With Plouffe, Mauer, Sano, Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, Rosario you've got 7 guys for about 5 roster spots.Making the right calls on who to keep and who to move will be critical.

[Lonestar]

This is what I wrote yesterday.  Too bad the comments don't move when a blog becomes an article.

 

I picked Max to click this year based on his AFL showing. His BABIP is not sustainable at .367 and I suspect his K% is, too, at 9.5%. His current BB% is only 6.3%. His offense has been very much driven by his batting average. It is perhaps wishcasting, but I perceive an uptick in plate discipline and power lately. He will need more of that as his batting average regresses. I think he is just tapping his power potential. And his confidence has to be soaring.

 

The good news is that he is hitting .316/.350/.474 against LHP's. But then again, that's only over 19 AB's.

 

I'm not sure Kepler's defense is tenable in CF for two weeks. His fringe average arm might limit him to LF and 1B.

 

I don't see a surplus in the OF yet. I am counting on Buxton. I have always hoped that Hicks abides. But if Arcia can't put up offensive numbers that make his defense tolerable, that leaves Kepler and Rosario. [And Sano.] With his peripherals, I think Kepler will eclipse Rosario.

 

[Lonestar]

 

Kepler and Morneau are very different as players... I partially remember BP's commentary on Morneau after his 2001 minor league season in A-ball - 'a championship-caliber first baseman... spreading the forbidden gospel of walks and power.'

 

Kepler's upside is to play good corner OF defense and hit for enough average to contribute offensively.

In 676 plate appearances for AA New Britain, Morneau put up .293/.351/.475 slash stats.  His BB% was 7.69%, his K% was 16.27%, and his Isolate Power was .182.  He was a year younger, in a different park, in a different league, in a different generation. I still don't see an edge in walks or power.

 

Let's see what happens when Kepler's sample is not so small. And again when he moves up a couple of rungs.

[Seth Stohs]

Note - I'm not saying Kepler is or will be Morneau on the field. I'm talking about physical appearance, talking to him, stuff like that. That said, Kepler's talent level is high. He can be very good.

[brvama]

Obviously the Twins think a lot of Max to put him on the 40 man roster last year. My question for Seth or anyone is: how will the Twins handle him the next 2 yrs? There seems to be a lot of talent in the OF here or close. Is Kepler worth hanging onto or packaging for other parts? BTW, I'd love to keep him.

[drivlikejehu]

 

In 676 plate appearances for AA New Britain, Morneau put up .293/.351/.475 slash stats.  His BB% was 7.69%, his K% was 16.27%, and his Isolate Power was .182.  He was a year younger, in a different park, in a different league, in a different generation. I still don't see an edge in walks or power.

 

Let's see what happens when Kepler's sample is not so small. And again when he moves up a couple of rungs.

 

I'd be quite please if Kepler magically turned into Mickey Mantle sometime during April, but it will take a little more than a batting average driven hot streak to eliminate concerns over his struggles in A-ball.