Article: Trevor Plouffe's Glovely Season At Third

[Parker Hageman]

In last Saturday’s afternoon contest the Twins maintained a 5-3 lead over the surging American League East Tampa Bay Rays heading into the top of the eighth inning.

 

The Twins summoned Blaine Boyer to keep the score as is. The first batter of the inning, Steven Souza, turned on Boyer’s 0-2 slow curve, sending a well-struck grounder bounding down the third base line. With Trevor Plouffe playing three steps off the chalk, there was certainly room for the ball to scoot by for a base hit or extra bases. Instinctively, Plouffe made a cross step, gobbled the smash up with a backhand, and then from the furthest reaches of the infield he fired a bullet to Mauer at first to retire the speedy Souza.Plouffe executed the play like he had came out of the womb making backhanded, cross-diamond throws. The next day Twins general manager Terry Ryan reflected on Plouffe’s defensive performance and simply offered “I don’t know if he would have made that the previous year.”

 

http://i.imgur.com/ZWIQKGO.gif

 

Most Twins Daily readers would probably agree with Ryan’s assessment. Data confirms the eye test as the numbers revealed Plouffe had difficulties converting balls in play to his right into outs. Baseball Info Solution said he was -4 plays on average when going to his right. But even that was a relative improvement over his early days at third when he was a gross liability at -13 plays on average going to his right. At that point in his development, it was almost a given that a ball hit where Souza's did would allow him to reach base.

 

“He’s starting to make plays,” said Ryan. “You know the accuracy is the only thing you worry about with him.”

 

Plouffe’s abilities in the field have taken a significant step forwardsince his introduction to the hot corner. While trying to make that progress he felt like he could hear every groan after each misplay.

 

“I think when I first started over there I was learning a new position right in front of everybody so everyone got to watch me fail which is always awesome,” Plouffe said. “But I worked hard at it. I had some coaches that really helped me out out there. I think the combination of those two things have helped me get a little better each day and I continue to work on it. I’m happy there is improvement.”

 

Now in his fourth season as the regular third baseman, Ryan credits former manager Ron Gardenhire’s persistence with running Plouffe on the field despite some of the results.

 

“Gardy had patience with Trevor. Gardy was always a fan of Trevor Plouffe. And kept putting him out there and putting him out there. We rotated him around the diamond some but he kept putting him out there. And ultimately this third base business might be his fit.”

 

There has been observable (like the Souza play) and quantifiable improvement to his glove game. According to Revised Zone Ratings, Plouffe has converted 79.7% of all balls hit in his third base zone into outs. That is currently a career best and fourth highest among all third basemen this season.

 

“At shortstop, where I played primarily, you gotta to go get the ball,” Plouffe explained. “At third base, if you are cutting your angles off that way, your range is going to be cut down dramatically. It was learning how to go laterally to the balls and learning the timing and a lot of things that go into it. I know it is fielding the ball and throwing over to first but that’s not how it is. There are a lot of different nuances you have to pick up and that took a little bit of time for me to figure out.”

 

Download attachment: Plouffe Defense.png

Another interesting statistic that really does not provide anything other than a sense of how comfortable he has gotten in the field is that he is leading all third basemen in plays from his knees. Of all the third base plays this season, only 12 outs have been made from the knees and Plouffe has recorded 4 of them.

 

Like this...

 

http://i.imgur.com/3zbO51E.gif

 

...and this…

 

http://i.imgur.com/EepUmQZ.gif

 

If that feels like an overkill stat, you are right, it is. But it speaks towards his ability to remain calm and not rush throws. Part of that is knowing the competition and part of that is knowing your own limitations.

 

“He’s got good hands, there’s no reason for him not to do be able to that,” Ryan said of Plouffe’s playmaking abilities. “His hands are plenty good and they always have been. And his arm strength is plenty good to play third and always has been it’s just a matter of accuracy.”

 

Plouffe is not an otherworldly defender at third. The excitement over his fielding is based on the fact that he has transitioned from a player actively hurting the team to average to slightly above average. But the Twins do not necessarily need a superman at third like Colorado’s Nolan Arenado who covers more infield than the stadium’s tarp. The Twins need a third baseman who can turn a high percentage of balls in his zone into outs. And so far Trevor Plouffe is proving he can do that in 2015.

 

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[kab21]

Perhaps Plouffe has to be my new favorite player (don't currently have one) to replace Cuddyer. 

[jimmer]

His defense was very good last year as well.  Maybe it went unnoticed for whatever reason by some, but I was praising Plouffe huge strides on defense last season and this offseason as well.

 

I like this part, '“At shortstop, where I played primarily, you gotta to go get the ball,” Plouffe explained. “At third base, if you are cutting your angles off that way, your range is going to be cut down dramatically. It was learning how to go laterally to the balls and learning the timing and a lot of things that go into it. I know it is fielding the ball and throwing over to first but that’s not how it is. There are a lot of different nuances you have to pick up and that took a little bit of time for me to figure out.”

 

I still contend that it took the organization way too long to figure out he couldn't play SS at the MLB level.  If they had figured that out much earlier, they could have transitioned him to 3B earlier in his pro career and he could have been an above average fielding 3B sooner. 

Edited May 20, 2015 by jimmer

[Doubles]

Switching positions, especially between infield and outfield, and especially at the highest level of the game-  can be a very tricky adjustment.    I salute Plouffe for putting in the time and work he has to improve so much.    Hopefully this will play out and this level can be maintained for a long time.

 

The Twins have had some very, very good defensive infielders at the corner positions over the years.    Guys like Hrbek and Mientkiewicz were very naturally gifted fielders.  Let's hope Plouffe joins guys like Gaetti, Koskie, and Morneau as guys who through hard work turned their labels as defensive liabilities into above-average defenders.

 

[Parker Hageman]

His defense was very good last year as well.  Maybe it went unnoticed for whatever reason by some, but I was praising Plouffe huge strides on defense last season and this offseason as well.

 

 

I would say it was improved -- fewer errors, looked more comfortable. Making a higher percentage of plays this season combined with a few standout ones has definitely made him look even better this year.

[Gernzy]

It's going to be interesting if/when we call up Sano. Where will Sano play? There currently is no reason to move Plouffe off 3B. And we already have Mauer and Vargas for 1B.

Not a bad problem to have.

[jimmer]

 

I would say it was improved -- fewer errors, looked more comfortable. Making a higher percentage of plays this season combined with a few standout ones has definitely made him look even better this year.

UZR had him as the 4th best defensive 3B last year for qualified 3Bs (24 qualified), 5th in Range (RZR) and 10th in DRS. Either way, in the top 10 which is pretty impressive for a guy who was/is still learning the position.

Edited May 20, 2015 by jimmer

[jmlease1]

His D has clearly moved into the average to above average range. The mistakes still stick out a little more with him because of his history; when a guy has struggled defensively you tend to notice when they tank one and think "here we go again".

 

He's hitting well and not hurting the team defensively, which is a pretty big asset at 3B. If he continues to improve his D, he's going to make it harder for Sano to push him out of the way at 3B, and that's a good thing.

 

He's a borderline all-star right now, which isn't something I would have thought I would ever say about Plouffe 2-3 years ago. 2012 he was solid at the plate and the Butcher of Cairo in the field. 2013 he was starting to show basic competence in the field, but the hitting fell off. Last year he started to put it all together and he's continued to grow this year. It's really nice to see.

 

Plouffe is reminding me a lot of Corey Koskie, another guy who struggled in the field, but stuck with it, put in the work and made himself a terrific all-around 3B.

[ashbury]

he is leading all third basemen in plays from his knees....If that feels like an overkill stat, you are right, it is.

We truly are living in the Golden Age of advanced defensive stats.

[brvama]

I remember when there was considerable doubt the Plouffe would amount to anything. Sometimes we forget that SS are generally the best athlete below pro-ball. Anyway I'm thrilled to death with his progress and sometimes think of him as a Gaetti (sp?) or Koskie. I do believe his maturity has helped greatly. As far as I'm concerned the only way he is removed from that position is if Sano forces it. Until then I'd stay with Plouffe.

[owenowain]

I was listening to Tom Barnard the other day. He said he hated Plouffe and he mentioned Plouffe's lousy defense. Tom can be funny, he also often can sound like a complete idiot and this was one of those times.

[jimmer]

 

I was listening to Tom Barnard the other day. He said he hated Plouffe and he mentioned Plouffe's lousy defense. Tom can be funny, he also often can sound like a complete idiot and this was one of those times.

His eye test is telling him one thing, while other people's eye tests are telling them a different thing. Who is to say which one is right and wrong? I could come out and say Arcia is an above average defensive player based on my eye test, use nothing to back it up, and it'd be a completely valid. Who is to say I'm wrong?

 

I, personally, disagree with Tom in regards to Plouffe and think Plouffe's defense has improved a lot over the last couple years to the point where he's a top 10 defensive 3B.

Edited May 21, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

His eye test is telling him one thing, while other people's eye tests are telling them a different thing. Who is to say which one is right and wrong?

The 50 people who say Plouffe has become a pretty good defender to every one Tom Barnard.

 

I see your overall point about the eye test but this isn't a good example of it. One guy has gone off the rails and is showing obvious bias while the rest of the world has pretty much agreed on the exact opposite. Not all opinions carry equal weight, particularly when the results are this lop-sided.

 

Not to get all political but it's kinda like climate change. On one hand, you have virtually every climate scientist and NASA saying one thing while a politician who received a law degree (or less) says the opposite. At that point, you basically ignore the politician because it's obvious he's either insane, bought out by special interests, or both. If anything, he has done you a favor by showing a complete inability to parse information reasonably with as little bias as possible. He has indirectly told you that he is not worth listening to anymore.

[jimmer]

 

The 50 people who say Plouffe has become a pretty good defender to every one Tom Barnard.

Well, I haven't seen that polling data , not that I disagree that's how it would turn out :-)

 

I think he's as wrong as can be, but when eye test is used as a valid tool for judging defense with nothing to back it up, this is what happens.  And he can counter with popular opinion isn't always right, your eyes aren't better than mine, I'm better at evaluation than the 50 of you, etc. 

 

I, personally, believe not everything is a matter of opinion, some things are just plain true or not true. But eye tests are opinions, and when that's all that used without being supported other-wise (for whatever reason one might have for not trying to support their opinion), there is no right or wrong. 

Edited May 21, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think he's as wrong as can be, but when eye test is used as a valid tool for judging defense with nothing to back it up, this is what happens.

To an extent, possibly... But this isn't a good example. We have reports of people who actually watch baseball games and they pretty much unanimously agree that Plouffe is a good defender nowadays. You'll get disagreement on just *how* good he is in 2015 but most people have agreed on the general sentiment that he's at least average with the leather.

 

And then you have Tom Barnard, a guy whose job is to be as hyperbolic and aggravating as possible. The guy with the loudest idiotic opinion gets the most listeners because... Well, because that's our modern society, I guess.

 

Sigh. That's a rant for another day.

[Parker Hageman]

I was listening to Tom Barnard the other day. He said he hated Plouffe and he mentioned Plouffe's lousy defense. Tom can be funny, he also often can sound like a complete idiot and this was one of those times.

 

 

Can you even imagine trying to explain advanced stats to Tom Bernard? 

 

The thing about the eye test is that while some people watch a high percentage of games and formulate an opinion based on those events, there are numerous people who cite an eye test based on things they watched from several years ago combined with whatever reputation the player developed over that time. 

 

Reputations happen for a reason. Consider that Terry Ryan, a very good evalutator of talent, questioned whether Plouffe would have made that play even a year ago. 

 

I question whether, defensively, the eye test can compete with data but at the same time whether data analysts can recognize changes in the data. 

 

/BallNerdOut

 

[twinsnorth49]

 

His eye test is telling him one thing, while other people's eye tests are telling them a different thing. Who is to say which one is right and wrong? I could come out and say Arcia is an above average defensive player based on my eye test, use nothing to back it up, and it'd be a completely valid. Who is to say I'm wrong?

 

I, personally, disagree with Tom in regards to Plouffe and think Plouffe's defense has improved a lot over the last couple years to the point where he's a top 10 defensive 3B.

Common sense and not being legally blind would tell you that you're wrong.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I still contend that it took the organization way too long to figure out he couldn't play SS at the MLB level.  If they had figured that out much earlier, they could have transitioned him to 3B earlier in his pro career and he could have been an above average fielding 3B sooner. 

I meant to respond to this earlier. I can't lay too much fault on the Twins for keeping Plouffe at short. He's relatively athletic and his bat didn't project to anything but shortstop until he went bonkers as a 25 year old in AAA.

 

Maybe the Twins should have played him more at third in hopes he'd become a utility guy but I can't fault them for not making a wholesale change to third when the guy's yearly OPS hovered around .720-.730 in the minors. That simply isn't a bat that will carry at third in Major League Baseball. It appeared that if the Twins were to get value from Trevor, it would have to be at short because he couldn't hit worth a damn.

 

It's easy to forget now but Plouffe was basically written off as a bust just a few years ago. It's a good reminder that not all baseball players develop at the same pace. Trevor seems to be a hard worker, a smart guy, and a good listener because he has completely turned his career around, one small step at a time. It's kinda amazing when you look at the progression of Plouffe as a baseball player.

[jimmer]

 

 He has indirectly told you that he is not worth listening to anymore.

Yes, hey may have told you that.  And I may agree with you, but that's not to say there aren't a huge number more who may agree with the politician and see his point of view as valid.

We see this all over the world with 1000s of examples. You have people who believe that there is no God and even more who do believe in some form of a deity. And while I believe one side has a huge amount of data to support their view, it doesn't matter to those who disagree

 

Now, I know, that's a faith issue, but it is also an opinion issue.

[jimmer]

 

Common sense and not being legally blind would tell you that you're wrong.

That could apply to a lot of different debates on a plethora of topics, some discussed on these threads.  Yet the debates rage on.

Edited May 21, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

I meant to respond to this earlier. I can't lay too much fault on the Twins for keeping Plouffe at short. He's relatively athletic and his bat didn't project to anything but shortstop until he went bonkers as a 25 year old in AAA.

 

Maybe the Twins should have played him more at third in hopes he'd become a utility guy but I can't fault them for not making a wholesale change to third when the guy's yearly OPS hovered around .720-.730 in the minors. That simply isn't a bat that will carry at third in Major League Baseball.

 

It's easy to forget now but Plouffe was basically written off as a bust just a few years ago. It's a good reminder that not all baseball players develop at the same pace. Trevor seems to be a hard worker, a smart guy, and a good listener because he has completely turned his career around one small step at a time over the past four seasons.

We will agree to disagree.  

[twinsnorth49]

 

That could apply to a lot of different debates on a plethora of topics, some discussed on these threads.

Or it could just be applied to being a joke, not everything is that complicated.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We will agree to disagree.  

To present another option, it's possible the Twins saw the incredible work ethic from Trevor all the way through the system and felt he could become a quality SS in time.

 

Hell, given what Trevor has done at third, I'm not sure he still couldn't become a quality SS if he applied himself to it. I can't remember the last time I saw a player get just a little bit better every year I watched him play the way Trevor has over the past four seasons.

 

It's fascinating how Plouffe has so sneakily gone from "bad" to "meh" to "good" to "this guy is possible an All-Star" right under our noses.

[jimmer]

 

Can you even imagine trying to explain advanced stats to Tom Bernard? 

 

The thing about the eye test is that while some people watch a high percentage of games and formulate an opinion based on those events, there are numerous people who cite an eye test based on things they watched from several years ago combined with whatever reputation the player developed over that time. 

 

 

 

/BallNerdOut

There are many issues with the eye test.  

 

-Fan bias.

-Game sample size. Meaning how many games does the average fan watch? How many of them watch games when one of their teams isn't playing? How often do they do that?

-The idea that most fans don't watch each game with the sole purpose of evaluating the defensive abilities of each player on the field to compare to the other players in the game at the same position.

-no standard evaluation system.

-different standards altogether. (example range more important or errors more important?)

-not comparing a player's defensive abilities to other players across the league but rather to players on their own team from the recent past. (like two Detroit reporters did when they voted in MVP ballot a few years back.

 

And the list goes on.

 

To show how this relates to the topic of the thread, this guy, with whatever agenda he has against Plouffe, is using an eye test (or so he says) to make his evaluation.

 

And when that's all one has to do, sometimes wacky opinions come out.

Edited May 21, 2015 by jimmer

[Parker Hageman]

It's fascinating how Plouffe has so sneakily gone from "bad" to "meh" to "good" to "this guy is possible an All-Star" right under our noses.

 

 

Additionally, early on Plouffe had developed a reputation for being a member of the "fun bunch" that people -- inside and outside the organization -- thought did not care to put the work in. Clearly he proved those people wrong.

 

[jimmer]

 

I can't remember the last time I saw a player get just a little bit better every year I watched him play the way Trevor has over the past four seasons.

 

It's fascinating how Plouffe has so sneakily gone from "bad" to "meh" to "good" to "this guy is possible an All-Star" right under our noses.

Would you say Dozier is doing the same thing?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Would you say Dozier is doing the same thing?

Absolutely. The career trajectories of those two players are interesting, doubly so that they doing it at the same time on the same team.

 

Though Dozier is slightly different in that he had a definable "light switch" moment when Bruno changed his swing.

[jimmer]

 

Absolutely. The career trajectories of those two players are interesting, doubly so that they doing it at the same time on the same team.

 

Though Dozier is slightly different in that he had a definable "light switch" moment when Bruno changed his swing.

Maybe it was Bruno, but I was speaking more to the defense.  He was a guy who they wanted to play shortstop who didn't seem to be able to handle it and he went to another position and has gotten better and better.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Maybe it was Bruno, but I was speaking more to the defense.  He was a guy who they wanted to play shortstop who didn't seem to be able to handle it and he went to another position and has gotten better and better.

Yeah, in that regard, they're extremely similar.

 

It's an interesting development because even some of the front office's staunchest defenders had to question their player development system a few years ago when things got really bad. Now that some unlikely players have emerged as very good players, it appears that maybe things weren't as bad as they seemed, we just needed to give the organization more time to get everyone pointed in the same direction.

 

Another good reminder that baseball moves at a glacial pace compared to other sports.

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, in that regard, they're extremely similar.

 

It's an interesting development because even some of the front office's staunchest defenders had to question their player development system a few years ago when things got really bad. Now that some unlikely players have emerged as very good players, it appears that maybe things weren't as bad as they seemed, we just needed to give the organization more time to get everyone pointed in the same direction.

 

Another good reminder that baseball moves at a glacial pace compared to other sports.

I was always high on Dozier and disliked the Plouffe drafting right away.  He has turned out good, and I'm happy about that and am a backer of his, but for a first round pick, he took a long time.  Again, I think this would have come sooner if the evalaution of his abilities was better in the farm system.