Article: Draft Prep: Twins Catching Depth

[Seth Stohs]

As we are now less than three weeks away from the MLB Draft, Twins Daily will begin our draft coverage soon. In preparation for the draft, we will be taking a quick look at the organizational depth around the diamond.

 

While it is important for the Twins scouting team to select the Best Player Available, especially in the first ten to fifteen rounds of the draft, those picks should be about adding depth and talent regardless of position. Remember that the high school kids selected in the 2015 draft won’t be in the big leagues for at least five to seven years, if they get there. Even the college kids will take three or four years to make it. There is no way to know with any certainty what the Twins needs will be in 2020.Today, we start this series by reviewing the catchers in the organization:

 

Minnesota Twins: Kurt Suzuki, Chris Herrmann

 

The 31-year-old Suzuki is very well respected in the clubhouse. However, his .644 OPS is right in the range of where he was in 2012 and 2013. He is signed through the 2016 season with an option for 2017.

 

Rochester Red Wings: Josmil Pinto, Eric Fryer, Allan de San Miguel (DL)

 

Pinto turned 26 before the season started. As of this morning, he is hitting .284/.371/.431 (.802) with five doubles and four home runs for the Rochester Red Wings. There are mixed reports on his defense, still.

 

Chattanooga Lookouts: Stuart Turner, Carlos Paulino

 

Many – myself included – think that the 23-year-old Stuart Turner is likely the catcher of the future for the Twins. As he did a year ago in Ft. Myers, Turner is off to a slow start, this time in Double-A. Through 26 games, he is hitting .191/.298/.258 (.557) with three doubles and a home run. Defensively, everyone believes in him.

 

Ft. Myers Miracle: Mitch Garver, Alex Swim, Michael Quesada

 

Garver was the choice last year here at Twins Daily for Minor League Hitter of the Year. He moved up to Ft. Myers in 2015 and got off to a slow start. The 24-year-old has hit better of late and is now hitting .215/.351/.252 with four doubles. It is impressive to note that he has walked 22 times and struck out 21 times.

 

On the other hand, Swim has been one of the brighter surprises in the farm system so far this spring. He has hit .336/.362/.350 with two doubles.

 

Cedar Rapids Kernels: Jorge (JJ) Fernandez, Brett Doe, Rainis Silva, Brett Navarreto (DL)

 

Fernandez and Navaretto are nearly polar opposites of each other. Navarreto is a strong-armed defensive whiz. Before going on the DL, he threw out 74% of would-be base stealers. However, through 16 games, he was hitting just .138/.164/.155. The 20-year-old should probably return to Elizabethton to work on the offensive side of the game. He’s got a ton of power potential.

 

Fernandez is 21, and he has produced more offense to this point in his career. In 19 games with the Kernels, he has hit .216/.284/.365 (.649) with six doubles, a triple and a home run. He is a very good athlete and could play in the outfield if needed. He has not yet thrown out a base stealer in 12 attempts.

 

Rainis Silva is another player who should probably play at Elizabethton this year. He played for the GCL Twins and did start to hit a little bit in the second half. He has not hit much yet, but he is very good behind the plate. He has thrown out 42% of base stealers.

 

Extended Spring Training: Roberto Molina, Gabriel Ojeda, Jarrard Poteete, Alex Real (Suspended)

 

Top 5 Prospects: 1.) Stuart Turner, 2.) Mitch Garver, 3.) Brian Navarreto, 4.) JJ Fernandez, 5.) Rainis Silva

 

The Draft: The Twins will typically take a catcher between rounds three and eight. Not many quality catchers are available each year, and to get a quality one (or two), the team has chosen to pick one in these rounds most years. In 2013, they selected Turner in the third round, Navarreto in the sixth round and Garver in the ninth round. Late in the draft they took Alex Swim. Turner won the Johnny Bench Award as the nation’s top college catcher that year while Garver was runner-up and Swim was a nominee.Fernandez and Turner were also catchers selected in the first ten rounds of their draft.

 

Catcher is a tough position. It is a position of attrition. Catchers get hurt. They wear down. More and more are suffering concussions. There are not a lot of catchers who are able to both hit and field the position well. If you find a catcher who can do both, he’ll be an All-Star. If you find one who can throw well, call a good game, pitch frame and work well with pitchers, he has a chance to be a big leaguer. Josmil Pinto has shown that being able to hit as a catcher is nice, but defense typically wins out at the position.

 

I would expect that the Twins will draft a college catcher in the first ten rounds and a few later on in the draft as well.

 

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[gunnarthor]

Someone else (willhammer?) posted the stats of LSU's catcher who is supposed to go somewhere in the 4th round area.  

[Shane Wahl]

I will go out here and say that there basically is no depth at the position. Suzuki is regressing and isn't even that good defensively. Pinto is getting shafted by the organization. Herrmann is going to be an organizational guy as long as he is with the Twins. Same with Fryer. Turner is hitting a wall right now, which wasn't that unexpected. Garver was always overrated.

 

Navarreto and Fernandez are quite a ways off.

[ashbury]

JJ Fernandez is my Adopt-A-Prospect guy, so even though I know space here was limited I gotta stand up for him.

 

His 2015 batting stats are likely soured by the concussion he suffered (similar circumstances to Pinto's unfortunately). Before his involuntary time off, his stat line was .292 /.346 /.417 /.763, and since coming back it's been (*mumble* *mumble* *pretty bad*).

 

Last year at Elizabethton he threw out 5 of 13 base stealers in 22 games behind the plate. That's an OK percentage of 38%, and also represents what seems like a very low rate of runners willing to risk it against him. But certainly single-A exposes him to a more consistently good class of opposition. I don't know whether the fundamental scouting/evaluation indicates an underlying problem explaining this year's throwing numbers - he passed my "eyeball test" in March, at throwing to second, but I honestly didn't give it a lot of thought at the time. Also I am a terrible scout.

[Dave T]

I am surprised you had no words to say about Fryer.  I thought he was the Twins' best catcher in spring training.  Hermann is more versatile, but Fryer is the better catcher.

[Shane Wahl]

 

JJ Fernandez is my Adopt-A-Prospect guy, so even though I know space here was limited I gotta stand up for him.

 

His 2015 batting stats are likely soured by the concussion he suffered (similar circumstances to Pinto's unfortunately). Before his involuntary time off, his stat line was .292 /.346 /.417 /.763, and since coming back it's been (*mumble* *mumble* *pretty bad*).

 

Last year at Elizabethton he threw out 5 of 13 base stealers in 22 games behind the plate. That's an OK percentage of 38%, and also represents what seems like a very low rate of runners willing to risk it against him. But certainly single-A exposes him to a more consistently good class of opposition. I don't know whether the fundamental scouting/evaluation indicates an underlying problem explaining this year's throwing numbers - he passed my "eyeball test" in March, at throwing to second, but I honestly didn't give it a lot of thought at the time. Also I am a terrible scout.

 

By a ways off I just meant some years. A minimum of three, I would think. But no, I thought he was going to be a fast-riser on the lists this year. I think he is getting there.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, what are the "mixed reports" on Pinto's defense?

 

Where in the *hell* are any actual reports on his defense? Can anyone find a single sustained analysis about it other than Parker's excellent job a few months ago? That report *certainly* did not indicate a need for the disregard of Pinto for this long into the season as a Twins catcher.

[clutterheart]

Turner's bat is a big liability.  I hope he figures it out.  If not, catcher looks to be a one of the few weak spots in the system. 

 

[markos]

 

I will go out here and say that there basically is no depth at the position. Suzuki is regressing and isn't even that good defensively. Pinto is getting shafted by the organization. Herrmann is going to be an organizational guy as long as he is with the Twins. Same with Fryer. Turner is hitting a wall right now, which wasn't that unexpected. Garver was always overrated.

 

Navarreto and Fernandez are quite a ways off.

I agree with this. The Twins have had a certain amount of luck in grinding out value from position prospects, but it certainly seems very unlikely right now that anyone currently in the Twins organization will be an above-average major league catcher in the near future. I'm not sure how to fix that, but I'm not sure that the draft is the right avenue to address the problem. It seems like they may need to try to acquire someone from outside the organization, either via trade or free agency.

 

As an aside, the catcher position is evolving (more focused on pitch-framing and offense), and I'm not sure how quickly the Twins will recognize the value of the non-traditional catcher skills. 

[bulldozier14]

 

I will go out here and say that there basically is no depth at the position. Suzuki is regressing and isn't even that good defensively. Pinto is getting shafted by the organization. Herrmann is going to be an organizational guy as long as he is with the Twins. Same with Fryer. Turner is hitting a wall right now, which wasn't that unexpected. Garver was always overrated.

 

Navarreto and Fernandez are quite a ways off.

Suzuki is straight up bad at anything but blocking pitches in the dirt. It's incredible that this has kept him afloat, but I'd much rather see what Pinto has if we are going to be throwing out a dud on defense anyway. Suzuki is probably a lot better at calling/ controlling the game as well, which likely factors into things. 

[tobi0040]

 

I agree with this. The Twins have had a certain amount of luck in grinding out value from position prospects, but it certainly seems very unlikely right now that anyone currently in the Twins organization will be an above-average major league catcher in the near future. I'm not sure how to fix that, but I'm not sure that the draft is the right avenue to address the problem. It seems like they may need to try to acquire someone from outside the organization, either via trade or free agency.

 

As an aside, the catcher position is evolving (more focused on pitch-framing and offense), and I'm not sure how quickly the Twins will recognize the value of the non-traditional catcher skills. 

 

I am going to third this.  We have virtually no depth behind our 31 year old catcher who is not really that good. 

 

The best hitter among all of them, including Suzuki is Pinto.  He is 26 and at AAA with an OPS of .802.  The Twins clearly have absolutely no faith in him as a catcher.  If they did, he would be catching at least 60 games a year.  Instead Fryer is on the team.

 

None of the other guys can hit. 

 

Any why has Suzuki and his .644 OPS hit 2-5 in the order half the time?

 

Guys with > .644 OPS:

 

Dozier
Hunter
Plouffe
Bernier
Nunez
Arcia
Mauer
Robinson
Vargas
Escobar

 

 

Edited May 19, 2015 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

Unfortunately, as thin as the Twins' list is.......this draft might be thinner. I have zero confidence that anyone in the minors will be both an average hitter and defender, right now.

[tobi0040]

 

Unfortunately, as thin as the Twins' list is.......this draft might be thinner. I have zero confidence that anyone in the minors will be both an average hitter and defender, right now.

 

Yeah, I see the Twins stocking up on quantity.  Maybe two catchers in the top 5-6 rounds.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I see the Twins drafting four and signing three, which would be pretty standard. College guys with good gloves and taking a risk on a high school guy. At least, that's usually how the Twins roll.

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I will go out here and say that there basically is no depth at the position. Suzuki is regressing and isn't even that good defensively. Pinto is getting shafted by the organization. Herrmann is going to be an organizational guy as long as he is with the Twins. Same with Fryer. Turner is hitting a wall right now, which wasn't that unexpected. Garver was always overrated.

 

Navarreto and Fernandez are quite a ways off.

 

Uffdah!! 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll say this, we were spoiled from Mauer. I think people forget just how big the drop off is for catching. I was really hoping Garver would be the guy to become the next big catcher, but he's been pretty bad in FTM this year. Not a fan of Stuart Turner, and Pinto, while he can hit, seems to be a liability behind the plate. I guess I'm a Swim fan now... I think this is one area that could really help the Twins if they could hit the lotto.... a good hitting good defensive catcher. Not many that have the ability make it.

[Hrbowski]

 

Someone else (willhammer?) posted the stats of LSU's catcher who is supposed to go somewhere in the 4th round area.  

LSU has two catchers that could go in the top 5 rounds, and I can see the Twins taking either of them.

[markos]

Regarding the Twins (non)investment in catchers...

 

1) With the #78 pick in 2013, the selection of Stuart Turner was the highest draft pick used on a catcher since Mauer was selected #1. Since the Mauer pick, they have drafted 13 catchers in the first 10 rounds, with the average pick being #210. 

 

2) Other than Wilson Ramos, I am unaware of any other Latin American prospects of note at the catcher position. There may have been a few catcher signings, and maybe even some high-profile signings, but I'm certainly not aware any catchers in the Twins organization who has shown any serious development from Latin America since Ramos - who was signed in 2004.

 

I get it that developing catchers is not easy, but it certainly seems to me that the Twins have neglected the position for years now.

[DocBauer]

I don't know who will end up doing what, ultimately. But then again, neither does anyone else. But I am going to deliberately take the other side of the fence on this one.

 

Turner was voted the top defensive college catcher in the country. All evidence and scouting reports indicate this was well warranted. At the end of the day, defense and game calling are still the primary job responsibilities of a catcher. (Bob Boone anyone?) But Turner has shown some hit ability, some development possibilities, and some power potential. He started very slow in'14 before finishing the last 3/4 of his season actually hitting well. Suddenly his slow start this year has him as a bum?

 

Garver was the runner up to Turner for the Johnny Bench award. His play last season, and various scouting reports, have him as no defensive slouch, and in college and the pros he's been a better hitter. Hell of a year last year. Again, a slow start early this season and suddenly he's lousy?

 

Swim was a JB nominee, but to be honest, I don't know much about his defensive prowess as his short time with the organization has lead to comments about his hitting and OF play last season. I'd like to know more. Seems he has little power at this point, but he appears to have a major hit tool. Combine that with defense and any kind of pop that develops at all and WOW.

 

Kind of hard to comment don teenage catchers at the rookie and low A level...so I wont. Except to say reports are there is some talent there to work with and mold. And unless you have a Mauer, you are probably talking a couple-few years to even know what you might have.

 

So I'm not so sure the cupboard is bare at all. Talk to me at the end of the season, and not knocking on the door at the 1/4 point.

[gbg]

Thank you, Doc. I think we're so spoiled by the "on-demand internet" and the 24-hour news cycle that it's easy to look at the current situation and, if it can't help me this week, then to heck with it.

 

Everyone's infatuated with Pinto's bat now, but look back at his minor league career, and he wasn't exactly a sure-fire prospect. He had some pretty brutal seasons offensively.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Regarding the Twins (non)investment in catchers...

 

1) With the #78 pick in 2013, the selection of Stuart Turner was the highest draft pick used on a catcher since Mauer was selected #1. Since the Mauer pick, they have drafted 13 catchers in the first 10 rounds, with the average pick being #210. 

 

2) Other than Wilson Ramos, I am unaware of any other Latin American prospects of note at the catcher position. There may have been a few catcher signings, and maybe even some high-profile signings, but I'm certainly not aware any catchers in the Twins organization who has shown any serious development from Latin America since Ramos - who was signed in 2004.

 

I get it that developing catchers is not easy, but it certainly seems to me that the Twins have neglected the position for years now.

Actually, Turner is not the highest selected catcher since Mauer.  That honor belongs to Jose Morales, taken #77 in the 2001 draft.  He was a pretty good hitting catching but ripped up his knee in 07 and never really made it. Played a bit with Colorado.  

 

Anyhow, minor league ball did a list of the top 20 or so catchers in this draft.  Weak as a group and a few are all bat but probably won't stick at the position.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/4/7/8357559/2015-mlb-draft-the-catchers

 

A guy like Hickman could be interesting as a third round pick, I suppose.

[Mike Sixel]

Saying we have doubts, is very different than what doc said. And no, this isn't about lack of attention span......I would suggest not ascribing intent/belief/cause to other people.

[drivlikejehu]

I think it's by far the weakest position in the organization. 

[gbg]

I stand by my assertion, as there's plenty of evidence for it on this thread and others.

[Gagne Fan]

Expect the Twins to take catcher Blake Baxendale, younger brother of Twins Farmhand DJ Baxendale.

Was a top 200 prospect for the 2012 draft. Chose to attend Arkansas.

One of the top power bats in the country.

[tobi0040]

 

Expect the Twins to take catcher Blake Baxendale, younger brother of Twins Farmhand DJ Baxendale.
Was a top 200 prospect for the 2012 draft. Chose to attend Arkansas.
One of the top power bats in the country.

 

Younger brothers, cousins, sons of coaches, and "bloodlines"