Article: What To Make Of Eddie Rosario?

[Nick Nelson]

"He can do a lot of things with the bat," Paul Molitor said of Eddie Rosario in March, following one of many impressive offensive performances by the young outfielder in spring training.

 

That observation has shown to be true in Rosario's initial exposure to the majors, if only sporadically. But it's his glove that might help him stick around.Rosario's quick wrists and exceptional hand-eye coordination enable him to reach out and get tough pitches, making him a dangerous two-strike hitter. Molitor commented on that trait many times in Ft. Myers, where Rosario clearly made an impression, because he was first in line for a call-up when Oswaldo Arcia landed on the disabled list earlier this month.

 

Rosario's first big-league at-bat summed up his offensive profile in a nutshell. He got an outside fastball and drove it over the wall to the opposite field – truly a nice piece of hitting. We've seen several such instances where he has risen to the occasion with a big knock, often when behind in the count.

 

But the fact that he swung at the first pitch he ever saw in the majors speaks volumes. Rosario doesn't see many pitches he doesn't like, and hacks at almost everything. Per FanGraphs, he has swung at 54 percent of pitches he's seen outside of the strike zone, a rate that would lead all MLB hitters if he qualified.

 

This hyper-aggressive approach has led to Rosario walking once in his first 35 plate appearances, with his 13 strikeouts representing only a portion of the times that he's gotten himself out by swinging at bad pitches. It's an issue that has been at play since he reached the high minors, and would seem to severely inhibit his offensive upside.

 

That's troublesome since – despite past forays at second base and center field – Rosario has been playing the outfield corners exclusively and that's where he figures to settle in. On that note, though, Rosario has been a breath of fresh air defensively in both right and left, where his speed and range have stood out in comparison to Torii Hunter and even more so Arcia.

 

If he didn't provide such a dramatic defensive upgrade, I'd be fully convinced that Rosario is heading back down once Arcia comes off the disabled list, and I still think that's the most likely outcome.

 

But with Kennys Vargas shipped to Triple-A on Sunday, the designated hitter spot is wide open, and that seems to be where Arcia – whose value is completely tied to his bat – fits best. Now that Molitor and the Twins pitchers are beginning to grow accustomed to the luxury of having both Rosario and Aaron Hicks patrolling the outfield, will the team be willing to give it up?

 

Arcia, who's been on the DL since May 4th with a hip flexor strain, is expected to start taking live batting practice this week so his return isn't too far off. We'll find out soon.

 

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[mickeymental]

one possible problem: they've already got walk-averse danny santana in the lineup.

[Thegrin]

Is this soon fixable ?  Can Rosario stay up and play the OF while learning to lay off Out-of-the-strike-zone pitches ? Can he learn ?  I've always read that Rosario is a natural hitter.  Plate discipline is best learned at the MLB level.  I hope he stays. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

An embarrassment of riches.

[Craig Arko]

The kid's obviously got the talent, and equally obvious are the rough edges that need work. Still it's been a lot of fun having him here. If he does go back to AAA, I think that may be for the last time.

[drivlikejehu]

Rosario is over-matched, and his defense won't come close to making up for the bad offensive numbers.

[tobi0040]

I would send him down to AAA to work on his approach at the plate.  I think he could provide a ton of value if he starts taking more pitches.  The defensive value plus a better approach at the plate I think is his ticket to sticking on this team next year (in a corner OF spot).

 

We have a ton of competition there.  Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Sano/Plouffe potentially all going for two spots.

[Gene Larkin]

Rosario may look overmatched in certain at bats but after going 1-3 Sunday his average is back to .242 with 6 RBIs. Not great but not that much worse than some Twins regulars (though in a smaller sample size). I know most Twins bloggers and many fans think it's only a matter of time until he's sent back to AAA but I'm not so sure. I listened to Rob Anthony on 1500 ESPN Sunday and he talked about how the Twins liked the "extra dimenson" he brought to the big league club with his plus fielding in left field and delivering hits in clutch situations

[tobi0040]

 

Rosario may look overmatched in certain at bats but after going 1-3 Sunday his average is back to .242 with 6 RBIs. Not great but not that much worse than some Twins regulars (though in a smaller sample size). I know most Twins bloggers and many fans think it's only a matter of time until he's sent back to AAA but I'm not so sure. I listened to Rob Anthony on 1500 ESPN Sunday and he talked about how the Twins liked the "extra dimenson" he brought to the big league club with his plus fielding in left field and delivering hits in clutch situations

 

But he never walks and his slugging is nothing to write home about.   .233 average, .250 OBP, OPS of .617. In the same zone has Hicks in years 1 and 2.

 

History is not kind to guys that K 37% of the time and never walk, always chase out of the zone.  I think the numbers will actually get worse as teams learn his tendencies.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2015 by tobi0040

[HitInAPinch]

 

Is this soon fixable ?  Can Rosario stay up and play the OF while learning to lay off Out-of-the-strike-zone pitches ? Can he learn ?  I've always read that Rosario is a natural hitter.  Plate discipline is best learned at the MLB level.  I hope he stays. 

 

A tranquilizer shot in the butt would help :-)

 

Paul Molitor has been quoted many times on how much he likes the way Rosario plays the game.  On May 15: 

 

“He’s obviously trying too hard,” Twins manager Paul Molitor said. “I’ve watched him play and have a lot of at-bats in the minor leagues. I haven’t seen him swing and miss as much as he has here, particularly as of late.”

 

Rosario now has a rep:  throw him ANYTHING and he'll swing at it.  I think Molitor really wants a chance to work with Rosario a bit longer.  He still most likely will be sent back down.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know.....we had an article on Mauer's new approach showing how much better he was (hasn't been), and Hicks new approach fixing his game (hasn't)......I think we can not make a conclusion about Rosario just yet.

 

Me? I'd let him play all year in LF, and see what you got, they used to do that around here (mid and late 80s, leading to WS).

[Linus]

It has been nice watching Hicks and Rosario catch some balls that weren't being caught before. 

 

This decision may not be coming as quickly as we think.  On the radio yesterday, TR said that Arcia hasn't taken live BP yet and would likely need some rehab starts so Rosario will likely have another week or more to get the bat going.

[jokin]

 

Rosario may look overmatched in certain at bats but after going 1-3 Sunday his average is back to .242 with 6 RBIs. Not great but not that much worse than some Twins regulars (though in a smaller sample size). I know most Twins bloggers and many fans think it's only a matter of time until he's sent back to AAA but I'm not so sure. I listened to Rob Anthony on 1500 ESPN Sunday and he talked about how the Twins liked the "extra dimenson" he brought to the big league club with his plus fielding in left field and delivering hits in clutch situations

 

I too heard that interview and commented on it here.   Since we've become accustomed to the level of spin in the "message", it's always interesting trying to read the tea leaves amidst that spin.  Clearly, the club is enamored with Rosario and his developmental arc, especially since the AFL experience. Somewhat uncharacteristically, they showed no hesitation in slotting him at AAA coming out of ST, despite him not demonstrating mastery at the AA level, and have now taken the next step in his fast track, by promoting him to the big club and piled on votes of confidence, before he'd demonstrated mastery of AAA pitching.

 

I give them kudos for pushing and challenging a prospect, but as I mentioned in my post, the praise heaped on Rosario in the radio interview, came at the expense of Buxton and Sano... and for all intents and purposes, Antony slated Sano for an OF job with the Twins.  Obviously, the Twins OF situation is extremely over-crowded at this point in time.  Antony's comments seemed to imply that we won't be seeing Buxton and Sano any time soon- and those are the guys with more talent than Rosario- and who should be pushed at least as fast as Eddie.

Edited May 18, 2015 by jokin

[Gene Larkin]

But he never walks and his slugging is nothing to write home about.   .233 average, .250 OBP, OPS of .617. In the same zone has Hicks in years 1 and 2.

 

History is not kind to guys that K 37% of the time and never walk, always chase out of the zone.  I think the numbers will actually get worse as teams learn his tendencies.

Escobar (a favorite of many on this board) and Santana also rarely walk and strike out too much compared to their power numbers but they seem to have stuck at the big league level

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I am not convinced that Rosario goes down when Arcia comes off the DL.  With Vargas down, Arcia would slot very nicely into the DH spot, allowing Rosario to continue to get innings and at bats.  Having his speed and athleticism on the roster during the NL games will be useful.

 

He may not be a permanent fixture on the roster just yet - but an extended look for a few more weeks to see if he settles in may be in order.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

He'll go back to AAA and be back up here again this season.  He's shown some flashes but he also has a lot to work on.  I think it was a good experience for him to be in the majors and I've enjoyed watching him play, but he's just not ready.

[tobi0040]

 

Escobar (a favorite of many on this board) and Santana also rarely walk and strike out too much compared to their power numbers but they seem to have stuck at the big league level

 

Santana's K rates the last two years were 22 and 26%.  Eduardo 20 and 23%.  Eddie is at 37%.

[tobi0040]

 

He'll go back to AAA and be back up here again this season.  He's shown some flashes but he also has a lot to work on.  I think it was a good experience for him to be in the majors and I've enjoyed watching him play, but he's just not ready.

 

And this is exactly the way it should be.  The guy doesn't just get handed a spot out of spring training.He wasn't put at the top of the order. He comes up, sees how his game compares.  Gets his feet wet and the nerves out.  Then goes back to AAA with a few things he needs to work on.

Edited May 18, 2015 by tobi0040

[Lonestar]

It's important to understand the expected offensive performance of a corner OF vs a SS.

 

Rosario 37.1 K%    2.9 BB%    .107 Isolated Power

Escobar  23.1 K%    1.9 BB%    .101 Iso P

Santana  26.4 K%    1.4 BB%    .089 Iso P

 

Last year Ecobar's BB% was 5.2% and Santana's was 4.4%.

 

I support sending Santana to AAA.

[Linus]

He should not stay if it means Arcia will DH.  While I am not the biggest fan of Arcia, its still way too soon to turn him into a DH.  The only way he will get better with the glove is to keep running him out there, at least for this year.

[Gene Larkin]

 

Santana's K rates the last two years were 22 and 26%.  Eduardo 20 and 23%.  Eddie is at 37%.

I agree Rosario's K rate in majors is way too high, but it does not seem to be indicative of his minor-league career. According to FanGraph, it was 20.2% in 2014 and 21.4% in 2013 in AA and in 23 games in AAA this year it was 17%

[nicksaviking]

By promoting and keeping young players that chase too many pitches, who then strikeout too much and walk not enough, I really hope it isn't encouraging other young minor leaguers to be hackers. 

 

Swinging a bat and hitting a round ball is a skill that is hard to teach.  NOT swinging at a ball should be much easier to coach into a player, yet, here we are.  If these guys can't control their impulses to swing at everything, get them to a doctor who will diagnose them with ADHD and get them on some Ritalin.

 

The only batters I know who get/got an Adderall/Ritalin exception: Adam LaRoache, Shane Victorino, Carlos Ruiz, Chris Davis and Andres Torres.  Every one of them can take a walk. 

 

Edit: I'm kidding of course.  Unless you agree with me, then I'm totally serious.

Edited May 18, 2015 by nicksaviking

[shs_59]

 

I would send him down to AAA to work on his approach at the plate.  I think he could provide a ton of value if he starts taking more pitches.  The defensive value plus a better approach at the plate I think is his ticket to sticking on this team next year (in a corner OF spot).

 

We have a ton of competition there.  Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Sano/Plouffe potentially all going for two spots.

I think Hicks is likely to be the CF'er in 2016.

 

Buxton doesn't seem to be ready for it. Obviously. maybe late in 2016.

[tobi0040]

 

I think Hicks is likely to be the CF'er in 2016.

 

Buxton doesn't seem to be ready for it. Obviously. maybe late in 2016.

 

I don't see a scenario where Buxton is not the starting CF by at least opening day next year, with a September callup this year.  I think he will be up mid-summer. He missed all of last year basically and in his first 36 games has an OPS of .746. He has 4 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, and 10 SB, only been caught stealing once.

[Dave T]

I think Rosario will be sent down when Arcia comes back.  IMO the Twins want Rosario to come to understand that he can play at this level, like they did with Polanco last year.  And I love Rosario on defense, except for that dropped fly ball.

[John Kelsey]

He's not ready and there was no reason to believe he would be with the numbers he was putting up in the minors. 

[Sam Morley]

 

 

Rosario now has a rep:  throw him ANYTHING and he'll swing at it.  I think Molitor really wants a chance to work with Rosario a bit longer.  He still most likely will be sent back down.

Maybe his strategy is to make everyone think he'll swing at "ANYTHING" and just as soon as their fooled, he's going to start drawing all these walks everybody around here loves so much.

 

But seriously, when guys first come up they get challenged in the zone a lot; it's hard to draw walks when pitchers are throwing in the zone.

 

Anyway, I'm sure he'll even out. I hope he sticks.

[Madre Dos]

Eddie is a great guy. Kept me on my toes (of course he had help from Kennys and Miguel) the Summer of 2011. He's a hard worker and I believe his head is on straight. I hope he stays in Minnesota.

[Shane Wahl]

Big fan of Eddie. He made my first ever prospect list at number 15 at the beginning of 2011.

 

I am quite scared and feel a little sick about the possibility of Rosario--12 months from now--putting up sub .700 OPS for the Twins because they mess around with his development in weird ways like they did with Hicks. I still am surprised by Rosario not returning to AA for at least a little while this year.

[DocBauer]

I am not comparing Rosario to Buxton or Sano directly...they are special and on a different level...but like them he shows/flashes the talent/ability to perform and succeed that seems to transcend current numbers. In other words, his abbreviated and rather disappointing 2013, along with sparks he showed in the AFL and in ST didn't speak of dominance or readiness, butter when you watch him, you can just see potential oozing, you can see how close he is to the light begining to brighten if not snap on completely.

 

I admit to being surprised when he was called up. Not to say there were a lot of options other than him, but there were options, including Pinto with Herrmann seeing time in the OF. The fact that he is still up is a testament to his defense and hard work, but also Molitor's obvious belief in him. It's almost as if he just wants him to succeed so badly he's going to stick with him as long as he can.