Article: Twins Daily Top 10 Twins Prospects Update

[Seth Stohs]

After reviewing the Twins Daily Prospects 11-20 yesterday, here is an update on Twins Daily’s Top Ten Twins Prospects. As you’ll notice, it’s a mixed bag of early-season success for the top prospects. That's not surprising. First, it’s still a relatively small sample size. Second, most of these prospects are playing at a higher level and making their adjustments to new leagues.As you read, think about your own Top 20 Twins prospect list and think about how it might look now.

 

#10 – RH RP – Nick Burdi – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

It was a rough first five weeks for the hard-throwing reliever. Through his first ten games with the Lookouts, he has thrown 12 innings. He has given up 11 runs (10 earned) on 13 hits, 13 walks and struck out 13. He is 2-3 with a 7.50 ERA and a 2.17 WHIP. Many of us, myself included, thought he could move quickly up the ranks, and he still can, but baseball can often provide cruel reminders of just how difficult the game can be. It’s not easy to get to the big leagues. In his first three May appearances, he has given up just one run on three hits and one walk in four innings. There’s still little doubt that Burdi will be a dominant big league reliever. It just might take the 22-year-old a little bit longer.

 

Status: Slightly Down

 

#9 – RH SP – Trevor May – Minnesota Twins

 

Trevor May did not make the Opening Day roster for the Twins, but he has only pitched for the Twins this season. He was promoted when Ricky Nolasco was placed on the disabled list after his first start. May has remained in the rotation since. He came into the season with 45.2 big league innings, meaning he would still be a rookie in 2015. He has made six starts for the Twins so far and is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA. In 30 innings, he has given up 39 hits, walked eight and struck out 24. He has shown flashes of his potential mixed in with some struggles. That is what you would expect from any young pitcher.

 

Status: No Longer “Rookie” or “Prospect” status

 

#8 – OF – Eddie Rosario – Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins

 

Eddie Rosario made an impression on the Twins brass, specifically Paul Molitor in spring training. A week ago, when the Twins had to put Oswaldo Arcia on the disabled list, the team promoted Rosario despite the fact that he was hitting just .242/.280/.379 (.659) in 23 games in Rochester. And despite the fact that he hit just .237/.277/.396 (.672) in 79 games in New Britain (AA) last year. In fact, in 17 spring training games this year, he hit just .233/.227/.442 (.669). That isn’t to say that Rosario is not still a very good prospect. I believe he is. However, despite his grand big league entrance – a first-pitch home run in his first at-bat – he can use more time in the minor leagues. He’ll get that, most likely, when Shane Robinson returns from the family emergency list shortly. Since that dramatic home run Rosario has hit .160/.154/.160.

 

Status: Flat

 

#7 – SS – Jorge Polanco – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Polanco debuted with the Minnesota Twins as a 20-year-old last June. He became the first 20-year-old to debut for the Twins since Joe Mauer in 2004. Circumstances made that possible, but Polanco had a nice showing in his debut. He went back to Ft. Myers and eventually was promoted to Double-A New Britain. He begins this season as the Chattanooga shortstop. In 30 games for the Lookouts, he is hitting .293/.328/.455 (.784) with six doubles, a triple and four home runs. He is also 6-8 in stolen base attempts. He has six errors so far, for a .945 fielding percentage. Polanco is very talented and I believe he can be a starter in the big leagues for many years.

 

Status: Slightly Up

 

#6 – SS – Nick Gordon – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

The Twins top pick in 2014 out of high school handled his professional debut very well a year ago in Elizabethton. As you would expect from a 19-year-old, it has been a mixed bag in his full-season debut in Cedar Rapids this year. He began the season by hitting .417/.481/.583 (1.065) through the first six games. In 24 games since then, he has hit .216/.257/.237 (.494) with just two doubles. He’s held his own in a league in which he is more than two years younger than the average player and one of the youngest in the league. Defensively, he has been terrific. The shortstop has just three errors in 29 games for a .972 fielding percentage. He has been able to show off his glove and range.

 

I talked to Jake Mauer in early April about Gordon, and this is what he had to say:

 

“He’s extremely talented. I would say, you’re not going to see the explosiveness like you did with Buxton, but you’re seeing a kid that’s wiser or older than his years, similar to Buxton. You can tell Nick’s played a lot of ballgames, and sees different things and is able to comprehend different things. I mean, he worked with Barry Larkin and being exposed to Hall of Fame guys, and the wealth of knowledge that his father has is a big advantage too. That being said, he’s got to be his own player too and go out and develop. The way he handles the press and autograph people and different things like that, his makeup is right there with Buxton too. No doubt about that.”

 

Status: Flat

 

#5 – RH SP – Alex Meyer – Rochester Red Wings

 

The overall numbers aren’t pretty. At Rochester, Alex Meyer has posted a 2-2 record with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP in his first seven starts. He is striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings, but his walk rate is up to 5.5 per nine. He’s given up 44 hits in 34.2 innings. His “stuff” remains terrific. He still runs his fastball in at 97 to 99 mph consistently. His slider remains sharp, but at this point, he’s working on command in and out of the strike zone. It was a tough spring for Meyer on a personal level. His struggles have carried in to the season. But, still just 25, there is plenty of time for him to work things about. Remember, he was only added to the Twins 40-man roster last November, so the Twins can, and should be, very patient with this uber-talent.

 

Status: Down

 

#4 – RH SP – Kohl Stewart – Ft. Myer Miracle

 

Speaking of uber-talents with high upsides, Kohl Stewart began the 2015 season with the Ft. Myers Miracle. In his first start, he struck out five in six innings. In his second start, he struck out just three, but he was able to work eight innings. In his third start he struck out two but went 6.1 innings. That was April 21. He returned to the mound on Monday after missing three weeks with elbow inflammation. On a pitch limit, he went just 2.1 innings. Overall, he is 0-3 with a solid 3.18 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. In 22.2 innings, he has walked 10 and struck out 10. There are some reports of declining velocity. It will be an interesting summer for the still-just-20-year-old.

 

Status: Down

 

#3 – RH SP – JO Berrios – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Coming off of a complete game shutout in his most recent outing, Berrios appears to be right where he was during his impressive 2014 season. The 20-year-old from Puerto Rico currently sports 4-1 record with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in his first seven starts of the season. He had a very strong showing in big league camp and it’s carried into his season. In 45 innings, he has walked 15 and struck out 53. His combination of athleticism, confidence and work ethic, combined with a strong mix of pitches make him very intriguing.

 

Status: Slightly Up (there’s not far to go in that direction!)

 

#2 – 3B – Miguel Sano – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Since signing with the Twins late in 2009, Miguel Sano has been ranked among the Twins top prospects and the top prospects in the game. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery. We all expected him to struggle early, shaking off the rust. He certainly did that. In 18 games in April, he hit .159/.303/.381 (.684) with two doubles and four home runs. He struck out in 29% of his plate appearances. He was taking walks and hitting with some power, but it wasn’t the same. Since the calendar changed to May, he has produced as we would expect Miguel Sano to produce with the bat. In 14 games, he has hit .286/.356/.510 (.866) with five doubles and two home runs. The month is just half over, but he has been much better. His strikeout rate in that time dropped to just 22% Defensively, it’s another story. In 30 games at third base, he has committed nine errors already and has a .875 fielding percentage. Before surgery, he was making about 93-94% of the chances he got. He has been making some great plays both directions, making diving plays and showing off his canon of an arm. His errors, to this point, have primarily been on more basic plays, which could also be about timing, chances and rust.

 

Status: Flat

 

#1 – OF – Byron Buxton – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Although he didn’t miss all of 2014, Byron Buxton was never able to get into a groove. He fought multiple wrist injuries, a possible concussion and then a broken bone in his hand during the Arizona Fall League. He has been healthy this season, but again, as we expected, it was slow going for Buxton too. Overall, he is hitting .244/.306/.450 (.757) with three doubles, six triples and four home runs. He has 23 RBI after recently ending a ten-game stretch where he had at least one RBI per game.

 

It would be fair to call Buxton’s early season ‘Streaky.’

 

In his first 12 games, he hit .180/.241/.300 (.541) with one double, one triple and one home run. He struck out in 22% of his plate appearances.

 

At that point, manager Doug Mientkiewicz gave Buxton two consecutive games off to clear his mind. Buxton responded well. In his next ten games, he hit .415/.479/.805 (1.284) with two doubles, four triples and two home runs. He struck out just 10% of the time.

 

Now in his most recent ten games, he has hit .150/.200/.275 (.475) with a triple and a homer. He struck out in 20% of those plate appearances.

 

Defensively, Buxton is elite and has returned to form very quickly. He has great range, takes good routes most of the time and displays a very strong, accurate arm.

 

Status: Flat

 

 

Feel free to discuss these and other Twins prospects and their status below.

 

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[Loosey]

Regarding Buxton's last 10 games:  It seems like he is striking out less and walking a decent amount during this mini slump he is in.  Any reports on if he is making solid contact but hitting it right at people or is it weak contact and popouts, etc.? 

[HitInAPinch]

Question:  why is Rosario in the Top 20 and not Hicks?

 

I still believe Rosario's callup was a message for Hicks simply because, otherwise, it doesn't make much statistical sense. As opposed to common

 

From Rosario's promotion date, May 4th, Aaron Hicks had 11 hits in 24AB's.  From May 3rd to his promotion, it's 14 hits in 29 AB's and Hicks raised his BA from .301 to .336.

 

I hope Rosario can kick it in gear soon.  And I think this time around Hicks can keep focused and have a successful career.

 

[clutterheart]

Was Berrios originally # 3?  Or was he moved up.  If he was originally #3 that ranking is looking pretty good.

[Vanimal46]

I'm very excited to see when the Twins will bring up Berrios. I don't think I'm any different than other Twins fans when I thought Meyer was the consensus #1 SP in the farm system. Berrios has continued to develop quickly, and from the sounds of it, might be the first true ace of the rotation we've had since Johan.

Edited May 15, 2015 by Vanimal46

[gunnarthor]

 

Question:  why is Rosario in the Top 20 and not Hicks?

 

Hicks isn't a prospect anymore

[PeanutsFromHeaven]

If May is no longer a prospect and everyone moves up, who moves up from #21 to #20?

[Seth Stohs]

 

If May is no longer a prospect and everyone moves up, who moves up from #21 to #20?

 

Chih-Wei Hu would have been 21, if we had done a Top 21 instead of a Top 20. He is a borderline Top 10 guy at this point.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Was Berrios originally # 3?  Or was he moved up.  If he was originally #3 that ranking is looking pretty good.

 

He was originally #3. The rankings shown are where we ranked them in February.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Question:  why is Rosario in the Top 20 and not Hicks?

 

 

 

For "Prospects" we use the definition that he is still eligible for rookie of the year.

 

For hitters, that means less than 130 at bats.

For pitchers, it means less than 50 innings pitched.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I am a little worried about some offensive numbers "as a whole" amongst our prospects and young MLB guys. I am a little worried about the approach/plate discipline/contact of the guys we are supposed to be counting on down the road. If you K a lot, you had better bb a lot, and you better make contact. For instance, Sano K's a lot, but at least he draws bb's. Guys can mature with mechanics and experience, but usually these things are not flukey and are pretty consistent for the most part. I highlighted in RED the numbers that I am most concerned about in with certain players. There is a better way of doing this I know, but I just thought this might be something to talk about.

 

Young core in MLB current BB%/K%/outside of zone swing rate/Contact rate

 

Santana 1.5 %/26.2 %/43.9%/73.8%
Escobar 2.1 %/23.7 %/40.2%/76.9%
Arcia 6.2 %/23.1 %/42.3%/66.2%
Vargas 6.5%/26.2%/33.2%/70.9%
Rosario 0%/37%/51.2%/57.9%

 

AAA guys and numbers BB% and K% only

 

Hicks 12.2%/16.3%
Pinto 10.3%/25.9%
Rosario 5%/17%

 

AA BB% and K% only

 

Sano 14.1 %/25.9 %
Buxton 8.2 %/19.0 %
Walker 6.3 %/32.8 %
Polanco 5.3 %/16.0 %
Kepler 4%/8%

 

A+

 

Granite 9.5 %/15.9 %

 

A

 

Gordon 5.2 %/17.9 %

Edited May 15, 2015 by ShouldaCouldaWoulda

[jokin]

 

Regarding Buxton's last 10 games:  It seems like he is striking out less and walking a decent amount during this mini slump he is in.  Any reports on if he is making solid contact but hitting it right at people or is it weak contact and popouts, etc.? 

 

I saw Buxton play on Sunday and recorded my impression Here.  Buxton worked a walk and was hit by a pitch in the back.  In addition, he also singled sharply twice, grounded out hard to SS and struck out. To put his day into full perspective, he was batting in front of Steven Wickens and not Jorge Polanco, so he may not have been getting many pitches to hit.

 

In his last 15 games, and 70 PAs, he's been swinging more, but also slightly dropped his K% (from 19.5% to 18.6%), but also meanwhile, cutting his BB% dramatically, from 11.7%% to 4.3%.  During this same time frame, his BABIP has jumped, but only from .255 to .294, while his OPS has gone from .665 to .856. His LD% has jumped from 17.5% to 20.4%, while his OFB% has jumped from 28.1% to 34.7%.

 

Suffice to say, he's seeing and hitting the ball a lot better, probably getting more, and better, pitches to hit (58.8% strikes in April vs. 65.5% strikes in May), but most importantly, he's successfully shaking the rust and making the adjustments to AA pitching and parks (Zone Contact is 91.2% in May vs only 77.2% in April).  I think he will be just fine going forward.

Edited May 16, 2015 by jokin

[h2oface]

The second ten (11-20) are having much better years, so far, than the top 10. Thanks for the great update.

[launchingthrees]

The season is young enough as it is. Breaking production down into first 6 games vs middle 10 games vs last 7 games isn't informative at all. I understand articles need to be written and writing an article saying "we don't know much right now so let's give it more time" won't get as many page views but this type of analysis doesn't do anyone here any favors.

 

On the forum we constantly see "after starting his first 10 games batting xyz he's now batting zyx in his last 10 games. It's purely statistical noise and over-analyzing. A 10 game sample should have no part in any quality analysis, and yet we say it time and time again. "in the month of may....... happened." No in the month of may absolutely nothing of significance has happened.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2015 by launchingthrees

[jokin]

 

"in the month of may....... happened." No in the month of may absolutely nothing of significance has happened.

 

 

Couldn't disagree with this conclusion more.  

 

Most of these guys have just been promoted to a new, and often significant jump in competitive level and are playing in situations where they may be as many as 3 years younger than the average age in their new leagues. At least two of the top prospects had completely lost seasons in 2014.  Today is May 15, just about halfway through the month, certainly 14 games or so of significantly improved production is a good (but by no means, perfect) indicator that proper adjustments are being made, and that the top prospects are likely resuming their expected/hoped-for minor league development arcs. I think it's especially worthwhile to pay close attention at AA level in particular, as sustained superior production there can offer a quick ticket to the major leagues.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Hicks isn't a prospect anymore

Ah, too many AB's.  Thx 

[Seth Stohs]

So, now that you've seen this list, and consider the 11-20 list, and even guys like Hu, Jones, Granite, Jorge, etc., who are your top 10 or top 20 Twins prospects?

[drivlikejehu]

1 - Buxton, Byron CF
2 - Sano, Miguel 3B
3 - Berrios, Jose RHP
4 - Polanco, Jorge SS/2B
5 - Gordon, Nick SS
6 - Gonsalves, Stephen LHP
7 - Hu, Chih-Wei RHP
8 - Stewart, Kohl RHP
9 - Meyer, Alex RHP
10 - Minier, Amaurys OF
11 - Kepler, Max OF
12 - Thorpe, Lewis LHP
13 - Rosario, Eddie OF
14 - Reed, Jake RHP
15 - Booser, Cameron LHP
16 - Burdi, Nick RHP
17 - Duffey, Tyler RHP
18 - Harrison, Travis OF
19 - Jones, Zach RHP
20 - Diaz, Lewin 1B

 

Next five (not ordered): RHP Chargois, RHP Cederoth, OF Walker, LHP Rogers, RHP Ynoa

Edited May 16, 2015 by drivlikejehu

[blairpaul715]

1. Buxton

2. Sano

3. Berrios

4. Polanco

5. Meyer

6. Gordon

7. Rosario

8. Kepler

9. Burdi

10 Hu

13 Stewart

14 Minier

15 Z Jones

16 Reed

17 Thorpe

18 Walker

19 Duffy

20 Jorge

21 Turner

 

I didnt include JR Graham who is technically still a prospect for a week or 2.......I would probably slot him in the 18 to 20 range.

Edited May 16, 2015 by blairpaul715

[nater79a]

 

1. Buxton

2. Sano

3. Berrios

4. Polanco

5. Meyer

6. Gordon

7. Rosario

8. Kepler

9. Burdi

10 Hu

13 Stewart

14 Minier

15 Z Jones

16 Reed

17 Thorpe

18 Walker

19 Duffy

20 Jorge

21 Turner

 

I didnt include JR Graham who is technically still a prospect for a week or 2.......I would probably slot him in the 18 to 20 range.

 

Not that high on Gonsalves? Or just left him out by accident?

[blairpaul715]

 

Not that high on Gonsalves? Or just left him out by accident?

Somehow 11 & 12 got deleted as I was typing, but Gonsalves 11 and Harrison 12......Thanks for seeing that.

[30whales]

What kind of MLB player can Stuart Turner be? I hear people rave about his defensive capabilities which alone should probably get him to the show but how good can he be? I instantly think of Drew Butera but I have to imagine/hope he is more than that.