Article: Draft Board v.2.0

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The draft is less than a month away. And it’s time to gear up. There will be a lot of draft-related things on the website over the next 24 days and it will be exciting.

 

There’s already a lot of stuff, but you have to dig for it. I posted my first board a few weeks ago. Many of those players haven’t played since then. Some of those players just started playing. Some have played well, while some have performed poorly. Not that having “consensus” thoughts on players is the norm, but there is such a lack of it, it’s not only hard to tell what’s going to happen at #6, it’s becoming increasingly foggy what’s going to happen from one to five. And that’s saying something, because the fog has been evident for months. It’s even thicker now.

 

You may be following one of the numerous draft threads in the forums. That alone could keep you busy for weeks, following the ebbs and flows of certain players.Today’s board will attempt to synthesize many of the things I have heard, in addition to the things you’ve read or perhaps seen. Again, without having a consensus on many players, this task is much more difficult than it’s ever been.

 

One quick example: There is a player that will probably go in the Top 10 that the Twins have scouted numerous times. There are some in the organization that likely believe he is a Top 5 talent - and worthy of the #6 pick - while others have seen him and not been impressed at all. While that’s not uncommon, the volume of players that fall into that category - or one similar to it - is.

 

Another example: In comparing the most recent mocks from Baseball America, FanGraphs, Perfect Game and MLB Pipeline, all four have the same three players going in the top 3. None (!) have them in the same order. There are only six possible ways to order the same three players and they have four of them. That’s literally unbelievable.

 

Piling onto that is this: None have the same player going to the Rangers. Of the 12 players in the #4-#6 spots (3 players, four drafts), there are six different players.

 

Five of those six players (minus Carson Fulmer) are the ones we’re going to focus on today.

 

Despite the Diamondbacks and Astros - who draft twice - being wild cards, we’re going to assume that the trio of Brendan Rodgers, Dansby Swanson and Dillon Tate go off the board in the Top 5 picks. How the Twins order them is moot. If one drops, take him. Pay him.

 

So we’ll start at #4.

 

4) Alex Bregman, SS, LSU. I’ve long been a fan of Bregman, but, like many of you, have questioned how he would fit in the Twins plans, both short- and long-term. I’ve recently come to this realization: Who cares? Here’s what Bregman is: Arguably the best shortstop to ever come from arguably the best baseball program in the nation. A future .300 hitter. A guy that can hit 12-15 home runs. Someone that can steal 25 bases and has an approach that is nearly twice as likely to walk than strikeout. (So, essentially, a better-hitting version of Brian Dozier.)

 

The biggest question remains if he can stick at shortstop. And it’s valid. But if he doesn’t, he becomes an above-average second baseman. Yeah, but what about Polanco? And Santana? And Dozier? Well, I’m not even worried about it. Bregman just becomes another asset in a stable full of them.

 

If you’re not into that - and into crazy thoughts - Bregman is a former catcher. It would be quite a risk to make the move with such a high pick, but if the Twins wanted to go all Tyler Grimes-ish on the situation, there is your future backstop.

 

The dreamiest part of this scenario is that Bregman is drafted, signed and assigned immediately to Chattanooga where he and Polanco take turns playing second and shortstop, and continue holding down the middle infield together for the next ten years.

 

5) Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant HS (Tampa, FL). I’ve just recently started coming around on Tucker and I’m to the point where I like him more than any other prep player besides Rodgers. Tucker is a future left-fielder with a lot of pop in his bat and a picturesque swing. His brother recently made his MLB debut with less athleticism and less-sure tools.

 

There’s always skepticism around taking more outfielders when the stable appears full. The stable is never full! On a regular trajectory, Tucker (or any high school outfielder) should be nearing MLB-readiness as Arcia reaches free agency and/or Rosario reaches arbitration time. That’s projecting far into the future, but so is saying, “The Twins don’t need another outfielder.”

 

6) Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State. Harris has a ton of spring helium and that’s a fantastic thing for draft hopefuls. Harris has a similar body type to Kyle Gibson and profiles similarly to the pre-original-injury Gibson, though with a different repertoire. Harris features a low-to-mid 90s fastball, an excellent 12-6 hammer curve (one of the best in the draft) as well as a slider and a changeup. His command is also excellent, making him - in draft terms - a mix of Gibson’s and Wimmers’s ceilings, if that makes any sense.

 

The nice thing about adding a somewhat-advanced college arm to the current mix is that Harris would join the wave that already includes pitches like Chih-Wei Hu, Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe, among others.

 

7) Daz Cameron, OF, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy (McDonough, GA). Cameron has been on the scouting radar for the last four years, which, in this case, has probably hurt Cameron. It’s given scouts hundreds of opportunities to find holes in his game. Where Tucker rated high for his offensive game and has serviceable tools elsewhere, Cameron has superb defensive skills, smarts and speed, but questions about his hit tool haven’t been answered. One way to combat that (in your mind anyway), is to remember that Daz’s dad Mike was one of the most underrated center fielders of recent times.

 

Pairing Tom Gordon’s kid with Mike Cameron’s kid would be all sorts of #bloodlines awesome, considering the two dads combined to play for 14 different teams (both played for the White Sox and Red Sox) and for 38 seasons but never managed to play together.

 

8) Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville. The Twins have been connected to Funkhouser plenty and obviously were able to get extra looks at him when they continued to follow Nick Burdi through the College World Series last year. Unlike Harris, however, Funkhouser is going the opposite direction. He had an OK - but not great - start last night. And despite his two-plus years of success, he’s been less than his best this season. Could it be that the pressure of the draft process is getting to him? It’s possible.

 

At his best, Funkhouser is a powerful high-90s fastball/low-80s slider pitcher, and that helps elevate the ceiling. But his command has never been great and that might be enough to make a team nervous. Cutting a deal with Funkhouser also isn’t in the cards, as he is represented by Scott Boras.

 

Two names that are notably omitted from this list are Brady Aiken and Kolby Allard. The Twins should have interest in both, but the medical question marks should *currently* keep them off of their board.

 

Aiken's medicals will be made available before the draft. If the Twins feel comfortable with what they see, he should definitely be in the mix.

 

Allard has just begun working out again. If he can get back on the mound, he'll also be in the mix at #6.

 

Feel free to leave questions/comments below. I’ll have a mock draft (length yet to be determined) to consume next Friday.

 

Click here to view the article

[Dave T]

I thought the Twins signed Wander Javier.  I would be surprised if they signed another SS as their #1 pick in the draft.

[nater79a]

Put me down for Bregman.  Think he has the potential to be another Dustin Pedroia (albeit a taller version).  Pedroia was drafted as a SS out of ASU before switching to 2B as a pro.

[gunnarthor]

Any word/thoughts on Nikorak?  

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I thought the Twins signed Wander Javier.  I would be surprised if they signed another SS as their #1 pick in the draft.

 

The Twins (or anyone else) can't sign Javier until after July 1. 

 

Shortstops are great to draft because they're great athletes and typically grow and can play several positions. I always like drafting great athletes.

[Willihammer]

Watched this video of Bregman. Evidently LSU has a tradition where the hardest working player wears #8. Bregman wears #8.

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I thought the Twins signed Wander Javier.  I would be surprised if they signed another SS as their #1 pick in the draft.

 

Bregman is five years older than Javier. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Any word/thoughts on Nikorak?  

 

Heard his outings so far have been very scripted almost like he's throwing on the showcase circuit. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Baseball America dropped their second mock and it's interesting: Fulmer (who I left off the board) going to Arizona. The Twins picking Cameron and considering Tyler Jay, a college reliever who will be a starter, and Walker Buehler (two others I left off the board).

 

This draft will be something.

[Hrbowski]

Your draft board is identical to the one I am working on, except I had Harris and Cameron exchange places.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Your draft board is identical to the one I am working on, except I had Harris and Cameron exchange places.

 

Looks like we can both be wrong together.

[Seth Stohs]

Jeremy - or others - Which of these players fits into the "Boras Client" category? I believe that Cameron does, but anyone else?

[Hrbowski]

 

Jeremy - or others - Which of these players fits into the "Boras Client" category? I believe that Cameron does, but anyone else?

I'm not sure, but I read something awhile back that said Casey Close represented most of the big names, and that there was a chance that the Astros would avoid them, and that is why they like Cameron.

 

Here is something that Kiley wrote back in 2014 about this years draft:

 

– One of the reasons you’ll keep hearing about the Astros and Aiken is because Aiken’s advisor, Casey Close’s Excel Sports Management, represents 7 of my top 15 prospects. (I won’t connect specific players to advisors as that only serves to help the NCAA take leverage/college eligibility from kids.) Neither side has said they won’t sign or won’t draft a player from the other side, but the tension from the Aiken/Nix saga certainly doesn’t make this an easy situation to figure.

 

Some of the risers, including Nikorak, Tucker, Tate, Harris, and Jay were not in his top 15, so that really doesn't mean much since, but that is the most I found. I will try to find some more.

[blairpaul715]

Bregman and Tucker are my preferences , in that order........if not either of them, then a pitcher.

[blairpaul715]

 

 

I'm not sure, but I read something awhile back that said Casey Close represented most of the big names, and that there was a chance that the Astros would avoid them, and that is why they like Cameron.

 

Here is something that Kiley wrote back in 2014 about this years draft:

 

– One of the reasons you’ll keep hearing about the Astros and Aiken is because Aiken’s advisor, Casey Close’s Excel Sports Management, represents 7 of my top 15 prospects. (I won’t connect specific players to advisors as that only serves to help the NCAA take leverage/college eligibility from kids.) Neither side has said they won’t sign or won’t draft a player from the other side, but the tension from the Aiken/Nix saga certainly doesn’t make this an easy situation to figure.

 

Some of the risers, including Nikorak, Tucker, Tate, Harris, and Jay were not in his top 15, so that really doesn't mean much since, but that is the most I found. I will try to find some more.

There should not be any tension in the Aiken/Nix fiasco, the Astros were proven right in my mind.................Man, they took alot of flak , even after still offering $5M.....................Aiken is probably forever damaged goods compared to other TJ patients..............Stay away from Aiken, under no circumstances should he be taken in the 1st round, or at least the first 15 to 20 picks, IMO

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Jeremy - or others - Which of these players fits into the "Boras Client" category? I believe that Cameron does, but anyone else?

 

Just Cameron and Funkhouser that I know for sure right now. That's not something that a lot of people feel comfortable divulging.

[nicksaviking]

Good stuff, but no way would the Twins let Bergman or any other player start in AA. Nearly everyone starts in Rookie ball, even the guys who were facing better talent in the SEC regularly.

 

Maybe they get aggressive and let a guy play Low A. Maybe.

[Tibs]

I'd be ecstatic if the Twins drafted Bregman or Tucker.

[SarasotaBill]

I'm in the minority opinion but Bregman doesn't look like a elite player. He doesn't have elite speed, arm, nor power. He will move to 2B before he gets to MLB.

 

Outside of the top three, Tucker and Harris seem promising and Fulmer is just unhittable.

 

If Brady Aiken's medicals look normal for a TJ patient before the draft and he agrees to sign for slot then I would take him. Remember Lucas Giolito (#6 overall prospect) had TJ while a HS senior.

 

[beckmt]

Twins can probably afford a big swing and a miss, though this will be their last top 10 appearance for years, so should probably not take it.  I am of the BPA thought, but you can never have enough pitching, so tend to lean that way.  Sure thing pitchers in this draft, do not seem to exist, so hopefully twins take a SS or an outfielder.

[DocBauer]

Twins can probably afford a big swing and a miss, though this will be their last top 10 appearance for years, so should probably not take it.  I am of the BPA thought, but you can never have enough pitching, so tend to lean that way.  Sure thing pitchers in this draft, do not seem to exist, so hopefully twins take a SS or an outfielder.

 

Great point, but I'm kind of thinking the opposite. With no more top 10 picks in the near future, presumably, and such a deep and talented milb system, and such a mix of available draft talent WITHOUT consensus, it might be the perfect time to roll the dice.

 

Even more than the NFL draft, I believe in drafting the best player available and not reaching for need. The hardest thing to find in all of baseball, I believe, is a top of the line SP, ace or not. A top of the line, front line, ace or not, LHSP is doubly difficult to find.

 

There are a couple guys out there that may fit that bill. If the Twins believe one of those guys has that kind of potential, I'm not so sure we shouldn't roll the dice.

[troyhobbs]

I think Ryan always takes best available in the first rd regardless of position and fills needs from there. Seems logical since there is generally a long road to the bigs from draft day

[30whales]

If Bregman is available at 6 I think and hope that is the way we go. He seems like the real deal to me and my limited baseball knowledge but he just appears to be a baller which I love. Would not mind Koby Allard either or Aiken if he clears medically. To be honest, I could probably be swayed with any of the prospects because I have not done much research but those are three that pop out to me.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think right now I'm either on Happ or Allard. I'd be fine with either.

[Hrbowski]

 

I think right now I'm either on Happ or Allard. I'd be fine with either.

I can see them going with Allard, but I don't think they like Happ. Happ lacks smooth action, and isn't much of an athlete, and the Twins love athletes.

[cmb0252]

I'm warming up to some of the potential twins targets. If the Twins walk away with one of Rodgers, Swanson, Tate, Allard, or Bregman I would be pretty excited. I would also be OK with Aiken, tucker, or Cameron but I have them behind the first 5.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

As for the Fulmer-to-the-Diamondbacks link in the BA mock, I asked around and the response I got was something like this: Don't make too much out of anything right now, Manuel did that to get people talking and that's what it did. Teams are going to sell their pick to the lowest bidder and what that mock accomplished was Tate's agent (and others) saw that their guy could drop and now might have to re-adjust their asking price. It's a giant game of cat and mouse. 

 

The result WILL be guys dropping further down the draft then they should and others going way higher than they should. That will make it even more unpredictable throughout the whole draft.

[Mike Sixel]

Not Cameron, please. If he can't hit where he is......

[markos]

 

The result WILL be guys dropping further down the draft then they should and others going way higher than they should. That will make it even more unpredictable throughout the whole draft.

I think this is nothing but great news for the Twins. With no 2nd-round pick this year, there is absolutely no reason for them to try to play games with the #6 pick. The just need to rank their board based on talent, select whomever drops, sign him, and that's it. The more the top teams try to plays games by saving money on lessor players, the better off the Twins will be.

[gunnarthor]

 

I think this is nothing but great news for the Twins. With no 2nd-round pick this year, there is absolutely no reason for them to try to play games with the #6 pick. The just need to rank their board based on talent, select whomever drops, sign him, and that's it. The more the top teams try to plays games by saving money on lessor players, the better off the Twins will be.

Agreed.  I still don't see any realistic scenario where any of the consensus top three drop to #6 but maybe whoever is #4 on our list can.  

 

(An unrealistic option would be DBacks taking a low slot guy #1, Astros nabbing Tucker and Cameron (ignoring Rodgers who I guess is a Close client) and somehow leaving Tate, Rodgers and Swanson for # 3, 4 and 6.  Can't see that happening).