Article: Twins Notes: Hughes' Home Runs, Nolasco's Filth & Hunter's Pop

[Parker Hageman]

Will Phil Hughes be able to quit giving up home runs? Did that ball that Miguel Cabrera hit off Brian Duensing ever land? Can Ricky Nolasco continue to spin all that filth flarn filth? Find out answers to these Twins questions and more.http://i.imgur.com/j8leLbg.gif

 

If you are a traditionalist -- someone who focuses on wins, losses and ERA to measure a pitcher’s performance -- you might judge Phil Hughes’ first seven starts harshly. If you are someone who looks at peripheral stats and FIP to better gauge his output, you might say he’s underperforming.

 

What has characterized Hughes’ second season in a Twins uniform is his inability to locate his fastballs as well as he did the previous season. He has not been wild, he’s simply failed to get the pitch to the intended target, like in last Saturday’s start against the Indians. Catcher Kurt Suzuki calls for a fastball down and in on David Murphy but the pitch stays middle-middle and Murphy is able to get everything behind it. This isn’t the first time he’s struggled to hit that particular spot.

 

Here’s the thing: Hughes’ bread-and-butter is fastballs up in the zone. Opponents are hitting ,229/.243/.356 over the last two years when he locates in the upper third of the zone. Meanwhile they are hitting .335/.342/.518 in the lower portions. If he wants to get hitters out, he should be attacking up but that’s counter to what he is actually doing this year.

 

According to Pitch F/X, Hughes has increased the number of two-seam fastballs this season. Last year he threw it approximately 159 times total but has thrown around 171 two-seamers this season. This explains why his fastball locations have been middle of the plate instead of in the upper-third as they are frequently when he throws his four-seamer. Along the same lines, opponents have figured out how to hit his cutter. After batting just .218/.248/.326 off of it in 2014, they are posting a healthy .300/.317/.575 line so far this year.

 

Hughes will get the ball in tonight’s start against the Rays.

 

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Brian Duensing hit the disabled list in mid-April with an intercostal strain and since his return, it has been an uphill battle. In now 3.1 innings of work, he has surrendered nine hits. (Add in another four walks and the lefty reliever has been littering the bases with runners.) The nine hits also includes that towering bomb by Miguel Cabrera on Thursday afternoon.

 

To Duensing’s credit, despite all the hits allowed, the Cabrera home run was just the first he had allowed this season. What’s more is that the slider’s location wasn’t bad. Not too many people are able to launch a pitch that is out of the strike zone for a home run. Unfortunately, Cabrera is one of the few hitters who can do it: Since 2011 Cabrera has socked nine home runs on pitches in that location, the most in baseball.

 

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Speaking of home runs, since the beginning of May, Torii Hunter has hit five home runs. Outside of the freakish Bryce Harper (7), Marlon Byrd (6...wait, what) and Joc Pederson (6), Hunter is tied with Nelson Cruz, Logan Morrison, Stephen Vogt, Anthony Rizzo and Todd Frazier with five on the month.

 

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Now with six on the year -- all pulled -- Hunter has shown he is locked in on pitches down-and-in. Not to mention, since moving to the second spot in the order on April 15, he is hitting .316/.370/.571 - a Top 25 OPS in that span.

 

If you thought Ricky Nolasco threw filth flarn filth in his most recent start against the Tigers, you would be correct. Nolasco relied on his slider/curveball combination to strike out a season-high seven Detroit hitters, including Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler.

 

Nolasco burned through pitches early by running the counts deep, walking three and ultimately exiting without completing his sixth inning of work. Still, the outing showed that the right-handed can make hitters look foolish with his secondary offerings. Opposing teams are hitting .366/.451/.488 off Nolasco’s fastball this year so a higher distribution of non-fastballs -- similar to Wednesday night’s outing at Comerica -- seems to be in order.

 

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There is a good reason this pitch was driven hard the other way: Trevor Plouffe was mentally well ahead of Detroit’s Kyle Lobstein. As discussed here last week, Plouffe has matured to the point where he knows that pitchers are trying to do. He said that he has found that pitchers will try to throw him hard inside then soft away. On cue, Lobstein tried to throw a soft slider down-and-away which Plouffe drove to the right center gap for a triple.

 

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After a really rough start to begin the season, reliever Blaine Boyer has strung together a series of nice outings. In fact, Boyer is one of just three relievers to not allow a run in their last ten innings or more.

 

Boyer said in spring that he owed his time in Japan for helping him hone his command as he was forced to throw to a strike zone the size of a tennis ball. He has mid-90s heat which he claims is his two-seam fastball. While this seems to go against the science of pitching, Boyer swears that when he is hitting 94-95, it is the sinker that Cardinals’ pitching coach Dave Duncan taught him years ago.

Without missing bats, Boyer’s success is likely limited but, for now, he has been able to help bridge the starters to Glen Perkins.

 

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[HitInAPinch]

Hughes' problem can be resolved by looking at this clip you have of Nolasco's last game.  Nolasco is throwing his breaking pitches in and out of the strike zone.  All of Hughes' pitches [from what I've seen] end up in the strike zone.  i.e.  No deception.  Any hitting coach worth their salt is tell his team:  Hughes throws strikes. Swing away. 

 

I'm expecting Nolasco will get away with his breaking ball stuff for a while, then he'll get injured again.  The way he jerks his right arm up on his follow through looks painful.

 

Duensing has done what the Twins have ask him to do:  pitch a ton of innings out of the pen because nobody else there had any talent [except Perkins].  But let's face it:  Miguel Cabrera is, well, Miguel Cabrera and a triple crown winner.  He's just not human!

 

Boyer is doing what sinkerballers do, get groundball outs. 

[Parker Hageman]

Hughes' problem can be resolved by looking at this clip you have of Nolasco's last game.Nolasco is throwing his breaking pitches in and out of the strike zone.All of Hughes' pitches [from what I've seen] end up in the strike zone.i.e.No deception.Any hitting coach worth their salt is tell his team:Hughes throws strikes. Swing away.

 

 

That's an interesting suggestion but I'm not sure that is his issue this season. His deception in 2014 was spotting the ball down (with his cutter) and up (with his fastball). Compared to last year, he's throwing fewer in-zone pitches (albeit slightly). The biggest difference is the location -- now his two-seamer is middle/down.

 

One of the reasons he didn't throw his curveball early is because of the split nail. That may have also played a role in his location of some other pitches as well.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

Is this the pitching coach? Because Gibson never seems to throw up in the zone with 2 strikes either......though I'm not sure he ever did.

[Parker Hageman]

Is this the pitching coach?

 

 

I don't believe it is but it could be. All spring Hughes said that he wanted to add another dimension this season -- first it was with the change and now it is a two-seamer. I don't know if that is the influence of his coaches or something he felt he needed to stay ahead of the competition but it certainly wasn't broke to begin with.

 

[Dave T]

I've been bitching about Nolasco since the Twins signed him, but Wednesday's outing was a lot of fun to watch.  If he can build on that performance, instead of the 100 previous ones, the Twins could actually be a threat this year.

[jmlease1]

It's encouraging to see Nolasco missing bats and tying guys into knots with his breaking stuff, but his fastball seems to still be too hittable and he's still struggling with his command, which builds up his pitch counts way too fast. Additionally, he seems to have fatigue problems once he gets up over about 80 pitches or so; while his start against Detroit was good, you could also see he was cooked in the 6th when his release point started to change and he was flailing pitches all around the zone. Hopefully he can build up strength and gain consistency.

 

[Willihammer]

I don't believe it is but it could be. All spring Hughes said that he wanted to add another dimension this season -- first it was with the change and now it is a two-seamer. I don't know if that is the influence of his coaches or something he felt he needed to stay ahead of the competition but it certainly wasn't broke to begin with.

A third possibility - trying to pitch away from his outfielders?

[Parker Hageman]

A third possibility - trying to pitch away from his outfielders?

 

 

If that was his intent he's barely moved the needle.