Fangraphs article on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs article on the Twins so far....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-wholly-unfulfilling-explanation-for-the-twins/

 

[twinsnorth49]

Honestly, I don't think this is a big surprise to most around here.

[James]

It's a good article.  I agree, the Twins seem to be outperforming what the numbers show.  I have a feeling it will correct itself, but somehow I could see the Twins staying around and outperforming the numbers.  

 

Like the author says, record is really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.  I'm just enjoying the ride while the team is playing decent baseball. 

[Han Joelo]

Don't ever tell me the odds, threepio.

 

I'd rather experience the ups and downs of the dots on the graph, versus the mind numbing monotony of the line.

[nicksaviking]

Clearly the Twins are out-performing expectations, but I have to think projections will be less accurate when trying to predict the collective outcome of say 45 players as opposed to 35.

 

In other words, the Twins have had and will have lots of turnover, and with more players suiting up, there are going to be more variables available to mess up any predictions.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Came here to see if anyone has posted this article yet. Glad someone did, and I kinda assumed that most of the people here already felt what was written in it. I'm glad we are winning, but I've never been convinced that that this is currently a good team that can keep this up.

 

However, we might not just go to tank from here on out. The staff hasnt pitched great, but Hughes is bound to pitch better, and May has had some pretty bad luck and poor defense that has extended innings in which he later gave up runs. Then again, Pelfrey and Gibson are certainly not as good as there era's suggest. Gibson isn't "bad," but he isn't this damn good. Nolasco isn't good either, but he's better than his era at least.

 

Keeping with the pitching, there is at least reason for optimism. Milone had been great in AAA, and while crafty dudes can often have higher k/9 in AAA, it's possible he's fixed something. I doubt it, but it's possible. Meyer has the potential to be great, the likelyhood of this coming to fruition is looking more bleak, but he COULD be a lightning rod in the second half conceivably. Berrios has the abiotic to be great in the second half too, but I'm not convinced the Twins realize he could actually succeed in the majors soon- arguably NOW. Oh, and a rested Santana in the second half. If All or two of Hughes, May, and Nalsoco improve slightly, and Gibson and Pelfrey just keep up to 80-90% of their current success...and the minor leaguers start to knock louder on the door, and the 80 game suspension passes we now have options to flip some pieces too.

 

The outfield defense should in theory improve with better athletes out there in Hicks and Rossario, and MAYBE Buxton in the second half. Santana can only improve at ss, as I can't imagine he could be worse. So, I think the defense gets better here on out.

 

I think our bats aren't all that great, but not all that bad either. Some guys can certainly improve their number here on out, since many have underperformed. At least in certain areas. I mean we could hit an away a series with the White Sox this summer when it's really hot and windy, and maybe Joe could hit a homerun even. It seems our plate discipline is horrible as a whole, but hopefully they can address that some moving forward. But, we aren't BAD offensively.

 

So, while I absolutely agree with this article and that the Twins actually have been pretty bad so far, or at least NOT GOOD...I do think we have the ability to improve for the above listed reasons. It might be enough to keep us over .500, and wouldn't be completely crazy to think if many of those above scenarios pan out that we could stay in the wild card race.

 

Or, we could just regress to the mean, face injuries to key players and prospects, have a reluctance to bring up ready players that could help, or play better while having bad luck instead of the current good luck. Either way, I'll watch and cheer.

[Thegrin]

With the exception of Perkins, no pitcher has been great and no batter has been great. There is not an All-Star player amongst them.  I guess it has been clutch hitting that can be attributed to this unexpected winning streak.  Lets cheer for clutch hits and clutch pitching when we get a lead.  I'd like to see fangraphs graph that. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

With the exception of Perkins, no pitcher has been great and no batter has been great. There is not an All-Star player amongst them.  I guess it has been clutch hitting that can be attributed to this unexpected winning streak.  Lets cheer for clutch hits and clutch pitching when we get a lead.  I'd like to see fangraphs graph that. 

 

Fangraphs actually does graph that, for every single game... click on "scores."

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, there is reason to hope, even believe, that they can get better. They actually do projections for adding minor leaguers during the year.....I can't recall which projections they used in this article.

 

For me, the biggest reason for hope is that there are bullpen arms available, that have much greater upside than the guys they have now. Also, you can hope that one of Rosario or Hicks sticks up, and helps out the defense. And then, of course, there are other possible reinforcements, though I have my doubts the big two will be up any time soon.