Article: Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Updates (Part 1: 11-20)

[Seth Stohs]

We are now about five weeks into the Twins season, so I thought it would be interesting to review the Preseason Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects list and provide updates on how each player is doing. As you would expect, some of the players have had strong starts while others would probably like a mulligan for their season’s start. Today, we’ll look at prospects 11-20.

 

Tomorrow, we’ll be back and look at the top ten prospects.If you would like to look back at the prospect list from February, click here for a good summary and links to each article.As you read, think about your own top 20 Twins prospect list and think about how it might look now.

 

#20 – OF – Amaurys Minier – Extended Spring Training

 

The 19-year-old from the Dominican begins this season by remaining back in extended spring training. He played for the Gulf Coast League, and unless something crazy happens, he should spend the short-season with the Elizabethton Twins.

 

Status: Flat

 

#19 – OF – Travis Harrison – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Harrison made the jump to AA and has been solid. Through his first 30 games, he is hitting .280/.389/.430 (.819) with and league-leading ten doubles and two home runs. After playing left field last year, he has played right field so far this year. He already has three errors this season. He hit .269/.361/.365 (.726) with 33 doubles and three home runs in Ft. Myers a year ago. He will be 22-years-old through the 2015 season.

 

Status: Slightly Up

 

#18 – RH RP – Jake Reed – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Reed was the Twins fifth-round draft pick in 2014. Between Elizabethton (4 games) And Cedar Rapids (16 games), he went 3-0 with a 0.29 ERA. In 31 innings, he walked three and struck out 39. He then gave up just one run in 12.2 innings during the Arizona Fall League. He skipped High-A Ft. Myers, and began the 2015 season with the Lookouts. It has been a rocky start for him. He is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in 14 innings over 11 games. He has been better of late. He has not allowed a run in five of his last six games. The 22-year-old does have four walks and 16 strikeouts in 14 innings.

 

Status: Slightly Down

 

#17 – C – Stuart Turner – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Turner was the Twins third-round pick in 2013. He skipped Low-A Cedar Rapids in 2014 and spent the whole season in Ft. Myers. He made the jump to AA Chattanooga. Like last year, he is off to a slow start with the bat. Through his first 23 games, he is hitting .213/.304/.288 (.592) with three doubles and a walk-off home run. His defense is what he is best known for. He has thrown out 39% of would-be base stealers. He will be 23-years-old through the season.

 

Status: Flat

 

#16 – RH SP – Tyler Duffey – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

Duffey had a strong 2014 season in which he pitched in Ft. Myers, New Britain and ended with three starts in Rochester. After getting an invitation to big league spring training, he was sent back to AA, this time to Chattanooga. In his first seven starts of the season the 24-year-old is 2-2 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. In 45.2 innings, he has walked nine and struck out 42. Along with J.O. Berrios and D.J. Baxendale, the Lookouts have a strong pitching staff.

 

Status: Flat

 

#15 – LH SP – Taylor Rogers – Rochester Red Wings

 

Like Duffey, Taylor Rogers was invited to spring training with the Twins this year. The left-hander had a strong season in 2014 with New Britain. He went 11-6 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in 145 innings. He was pushed up to Rochester where he has been successful. In his most recent start, he gave up five runs in five innings, but he gave up all five of them in that fifth inning. Overall, he is 2-2 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, though both of those numbers were significantly better before that fifth inning. In 43 innings, he has walked 18 and struck out 40.

 

Status: Flat

 

#14 – OF – Adam Brett Walker – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

The 23-year-old from Milwaukee continues to be a big power bat in the middle of a dominant Lookouts lineup. In 30 games, he has hit .252/.300/.559 (.859) with seven doubles and a league-leading nine home runs. He continues to strike out a lot without walking much (120 plate appearances, eight walks, 41 strikeouts), but the power is very legit. He flip-flopped positions with Travis Harrison, so he is in left field this year.

 

Status: Slightly Up

 

#13 – LH SP – Stephen Gonsalves – Cedar Rapids Kernels

 

A year ago, the lefty made six starts for Elizabethton before being promoted and making eight starts in Cedar Rapids. That’s where he began his 2015 season. He was just named the Twins minor league pitcher of the month by the Twins after being named the Twins Daily starting pitcher of the month. In his first five starts, he is 3-1 with a 1.41 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. In 32 innings, he has issued seven walks and struck out 43. It is very possible, and probably likely, that he will be promoted to Ft. Myers well before his 21^st birthday in July.

 

Status: Up

 

#12 – OF/1B – Max Kepler – Chattanooga Lookouts

 

A year ago, Kepler played in 102 games with Ft. Myers and hit .264/.333/.393 (.726) with 20 doubles, six triples and five home runs. He missed time due to health. He then posted a .806 OPS in the Arizona Fall League. He had a good showing this spring, though it was again shortened by injury. That’s why he began the season by playing six games in Ft. Myers before moving up to the Chattanooga Lookouts. After a slow start, he has been red hot of late. In his past ten games, he has hit .432/.462/.595 (1.056) with four doubles and a triple. Overall, he is hitting .328.

 

Status: Slightly Up

 

#11 – LH SP – Lewis Thorpe – Out for the Season

 

Thorpe was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League after his June promotion to the Cedar Rapids Kernels. He pitched through the whole season, but in his last start, he hurt his elbow. He rehabbed throughout the season. He pitched some in spring training, but he had a set back and in late March, he had Tommy John surgery.

 

Status: Slightly Down

 

There is part 1 of our Top 20 Update, a look at how the Twins Daily Prospects 11-20 have started their 2015 seasons. Check back tomorrow for updates on the Twins Daily Top 10 Minnesota Twins Prospects.

 

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[lightfoot789]

My Chattanooga Boys are representing well this season.

 

I have to say - I think Duffy's stat line is worthy of a "Slightly Up" grading.  He has the best Whip on the staff and his K's are second only to Berrios.  Also a 2.76 ERA ain't so bad.  

 

Great to see Kepler off to great start.  Just hoping he stays consistent and healthy for the entire season.  His swing is amazing.

 

Walker is up to 8 doubles and is starting to put up numbers like he had in Cedar Rapids 2 years ago.  Now if he can just curb those K's some.  The most exciting thing for me about Walker this year is that 5 of his 9 HRs are to the opposite field.  Batting 3 thru 6 is middle of the order.  Batting 7th is at the back of the order IMO.  

 

Harrison has a steady approach at the plate and will fight for the Doubles title at seasons end again this year.  Great eye around the zone helps with his excellent OBP.

 

Turner is arguably the best defensive catcher in minors.  39% is ridiculous!

 

Reed is starting to look like the Reed of old.  I wouldn't be scared to put him in during a close game anymore.  Righting that Ship.

 

For the Record - No Way Zach Jones shouldn't be a Top 20 guy.  

[clutterheart]

I would remove the "slightly" from Harrison and just say "up."  I would also say Turner is a "down." If he sports an OPS in the .500's his prospect status should crash to sub Eric Fryer level.

 

[roger]

Aren't you being a bit tough on Reed, Seth?

 

After skipping Hi-A, a rough start at AA could be expected.  The important comment was, "He has been better of late." 

 

[jokin]

 

#13 – LH SP – Stephen Gonsalves – Cedar Rapids Kernels

A year ago, the lefty made six starts for Elizabethton before being promoted and making eight starts in Cedar Rapids. That’s where he began his 2015 season. He was just named the Twins minor league pitcher of the month by the Twins after being named the Twins Daily starting pitcher of the month. In his first five starts, he is 3-1 with a 1.41 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. In 32 innings, he has issued seven walks and struck out 43. It is very possible, and probably likely, that he be promoted to Ft. Myers well before his 21^st birthday in July.

Status: Up


#11 – LH SP – Lewis Thorpe – Out for the Season

 

Status: Slightly Down
 

 

With Thorpe out for at least a year and possibly irreparably harmed and Gonsalves rocking and rolling in the Rapids, shouldn't Thorpe's status be either "Down" or "Uncertain"... and shouldn't Gonsalves' status be either "Way Up" or "Ballooning?"

[drivlikejehu]

I don't agree with Kepler or Walker being up, considering they are ranked fairly high to begin with. Kepler is a corner outfielder who doesn't walk or hit for power. Walker is basically a home run derby player more than a baseball player.

 

I do think Duffey's stock has risen, though Seth had him a little high after last season so I don't know that he should really be much higher even with improvement.

[Mike Sixel]

We don't know how good Turner is compared to all the other minor league catchers, do we? Hard to feel great, imo, about a 23 year old that has not yet hit low A pitching (or mid A or whatever you want to call it).

 

Gonsalves has been very good, I agree, he'll be up to Ft. Meyers soon.

 

I am really interested to see what happens with Kepler and Walker, they both have something that others don't really have (Walker, power, Kepler is just all around very good, potentially, and all around is rare).

[jokin]

 

 Walker is basically a home run derby player more than a baseball player.

 

 

Except home run derby players don't generally hit the majority of their homers to the opposite field.

 

 FWIW, after seeing Walker hit a massive opposite field home run on Sunday, plus stinging three line drives, in 5 good plate appearances with no strikeouts or swing-for-the-fences whiffs, I'd say he's working hard on removing the label you've given him.

[jokin]

 

 

I am really interested to see what happens with Kepler and Walker, they both have something that others don't really have (Walker, power, Kepler is just all around very good, potentially, and all around is rare).

 

After seeing both in person for the first time on Sunday, I have to say I was both impressed and pleasantly surprised.  The ball was exploding off of Walker's bat- to all fields, and Kepler was effortlessly hitting ropes all over the field (he ended up with 3 hits, 2 doubles- which should have been 3 doubles if not for a great defensive play).  Kepler looks like he could eventually adjust his swing to produce more power, while Walker appeared to be actively adjusting his swing situationally to hit line drives as well as fly balls.

[drivlikejehu]

I don't question Walker's work ethic. I'm sure he'd rather be an all around great hitter. But there is something missing from his skill set in terms of picking up pitch location and movement.

 

I'm skeptical it's fixable, based on other prospects with similar issues.

[jokin]

 

I don't question Walker's work ethic. I'm sure he'd rather be an all around great hitter. But there is something missing from his skill set in terms of picking up pitch location and movement.

I'm skeptical it's fixable, based on other prospects with similar issues.

 

Generally agreed, and given his work ethic, he's even more athletic than I'd imagined. But yes, he does have a fatal flaw in his make-up.  I'd still give his chances on being a productive major league regular at less than 1 in 4, but at least for one day, I didn't see any signs of an all-or-none guy last Sunday,

Edited May 14, 2015 by jokin

[2wins87]

My own assessment would be:

 

Minier - Flat

Harrison - Slightly up 

Reed - Slightly up (I think his ERA and WHIP are unlucky, good peripherals, might be above Burdi for me)

Turner - Slightly down (his bat showed a bit more promise last year)

Duffey - Up (I was a little less bullish on him preseason, he could be headed into the top 10 right now)

Rogers - Flat

Walker - Flat (yes he's hit a lot of home runs but he's always done that and his K/BB doesn't point to any improvement in other areas)

Gonsalves - Up

Kepler - Slightly up

Thorpe - Slightly down

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Aren't you being a bit tough on Reed, Seth?

 

After skipping Hi-A, a rough start at AA could be expected.  The important comment was, "He has been better of late." 

 

I don't know. I don't think anything I wrote about him is inaccurate and I don't think he would even disagree with that assessment. 

 

I wasn't surprised to see him struggle out of the gate. I don't think that affects his status. He still has tremendous stuff and remains a very good bullpen prospect.

[Seth Stohs]

 

My Chattanooga Boys are representing well this season.

 

I have to say - I think Duffy's stat line is worthy of a "Slightly Up" grading.  He has the best Whip on the staff and his K's are second only to Berrios.  Also a 2.76 ERA ain't so bad.  

 

Great to see Kepler off to great start.  Just hoping he stays consistent and healthy for the entire season.  His swing is amazing.

 

Walker is up to 8 doubles and is starting to put up numbers like he had in Cedar Rapids 2 years ago.  Now if he can just curb those K's some.  The most exciting thing for me about Walker this year is that 5 of his 9 HRs are to the opposite field.  Batting 3 thru 6 is middle of the order.  Batting 7th is at the back of the order IMO.  

 

Harrison has a steady approach at the plate and will fight for the Doubles title at seasons end again this year.  Great eye around the zone helps with his excellent OBP.

 

Turner is arguably the best defensive catcher in minors.  39% is ridiculous!

 

Reed is starting to look like the Reed of old.  I wouldn't be scared to put him in during a close game anymore.  Righting that Ship.

 

For the Record - No Way Zach Jones shouldn't be a Top 20 guy.  

 

I think Zack Jones is a Top 20 guy at this point, and I think that Chih-Wei Hu is a top ten guy at this point. This list was made in February and had input from several Twins Daily writers. 

 

The "Up, Slightly Up, Flat, Slightly Down, Down" categories are worthy of discussion. I guess I consider it like this:

 

Flat - relative to where he ranked preseason, he'd be in about the same place, maybe give or take one spot.

 

Slightly - Up or Down, this would mean that he would move 1-3 spots in a new ranking.

 

Up or Down - assumes that he would move up more than 2-3 spots. 

 

That's all up for debate and we didn't do a new ranking yet to determine where they woudl actually wind up. That's always much more difficult to assume AND I would poitn out that altering someone too much based on 5 weeks of a season (or in my individual case seeing them in spring training or in Cedar Rapids, etc.) may not make a lot of sense. 

 

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Seth, are we going to do updated Top 30s for the inaugural Draft Handbook in mid-June?

[halfchest]

Nice update, like Seth pointed out, can't move someone too much based on 5 weeks of baseball. 

[jmlease1]

ABW's inability to draw walks so far is why clearing out Arcia to make space for him is a foolish idea. Seth is right: the power is absolutely legit. But until he learns to draw some walks he'll get killed against MLB pitching. 

 

I'm really rooting for Kepler, who just as he seems to be figuring it out has had injury issues. Here's hoping he continues to build on success. He's got tools and seems to finally be translating them to on-field success. I like his positional flexibility and he looks like a real asset.

 

Thorpe's Tommy John surgery is a real shame, but hopefully he can come back from it. It's a little concerning that it's hit on him so early in his career; does this mean there's a problem in his mechanics that's going to make this a recurring problem? Or force a change that will cause him to lose effectiveness? His youth suggests greater opportunity to come back from the injury, but does it also portend greater injury concerns in the future?

[lightfoot789]

 

I think Zack Jones is a Top 20 guy at this point, and I think that Chih-Wei Hu is a top ten guy at this point. This list was made in February and had input from several Twins Daily writers. 

 

 

That's all up for debate and we didn't do a new ranking yet to determine where they woudl actually wind up. That's always much more difficult to assume AND I would poitn out that altering someone too much based on 5 weeks of a season (or in my individual case seeing them in spring training or in Cedar Rapids, etc.) may not make a lot of sense. 

 

I agree that 5 weeks isn't enough to change rankings.  I appreciate everything you wrote.  My assessment of Zach is that I always thought him a Top prospect.  Inconsistencies and all, because all he did was win at every level.  And with amazing stuff.  Love reading this stuff and hearing counter points.

[lightfoot789]

 

ABW's inability to draw walks so far is why clearing out Arcia to make space for him is a foolish idea. Seth is right: the power is absolutely legit. But until he learns to draw some walks he'll get killed against MLB pitching. 

 

Today he would get killed by Major league pitching.  In the near future, I'm not so sure.  The same thing has been said about him since the Draft and Rookie ball.  All he does is continue to help his teams win games.   Not just an OBP guy who never seems to pass second base.  By your theory - Polanco doesn't have a chance.  He has less walks than Walker .

 

[Bill]

I thought it would be useful to think about what sort of careers these players might have by comparing the prospects to some past MLB players.  

 

For each prospect, I have listed below an MLBer that the prospect would be comparable to in the best case (i.e., if the prospect does the best that could reasonably be hoped). I also listed a player I think the prospect will most likely end up like.  Below BC="Best Case" comparison, MLC="Most-Likely Case" comparison, and DMM="Doesn't make the majors".  Let me know what you think.

 

Thorpe: BC=Mike Flanagan, MLC=DMM

 

Kepler: BC=Fred Lynn, MLC=John Lowenstein

 

Gonsalves: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=DMM

 

Walker: BC=Lee May, MLC=Mike Devereaux

 

Rogers: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=Tippy Martinez

 

Duffey: BC=Storm Davis, MLC=Sammy Stewart

 

Turner: BC=Rick Dempsey, MLC=Dave Skaggs

 

Reed: BC=Tim Stoddard, MLC=DMM

 

Harrison: BC=Doug Decinces, MLC=Craig Worthington

 

Minier: BC=Ken Singleton, MLC=DMM

 

 

 

 

 

[Cast of Thousands]

Apologies if this is slightly off-topic but I was wondering what's the latest with Luke Bard?  I've tried poking around the net and can't find anything!

 

Good update, Seth!  Nice work!

[twinssouth]

Apologies if this is slightly off-topic but I was wondering what's the latest with Luke Bard?  I've tried poking around the net and can't find anything!

 

Good update, Seth!  Nice work!

Interesting you bring this up. I was thinking the same thing. Where's Luke Bard been lately? I know he had major shoulder surgery last year, should be ready to go. Saw him pitch back in 2013 and impressed. Great 95 FB with life and really nice cb. Man, only what, 20 innings or so pitched in 2 years and he was selected in Supplemental 1st round. Great GT guy and hope he comes back rocking and rolling.

While at it, where's DJ Hicks been lately? Is he in Dougie's dog house or hurt?

 

Great job Seth

[Larsbars08]

I think Travis Harrison is a bit underrated here. I know that you have him trending up, but his stat line has been quietly very impressive. I know we've been waiting for a power burst from him that may not ever happen, but his OBP has been very impressive and his power numbers have been trending up recently. I don't know if he'll be a big league regular or replacement level guy, but a guy with a career .370 OBP and still pretty young for his level will always have a place on a big league team.

[beckmt]

Gonsalves - cannot see him not making the major, most lefties get several chances and worst would be a LOOGY.

Thorpe - Should be lower until next year or two years to prove he is back

Think Rogers should be lower and Duffey higher just because of upside.

Could see Kepler cracking the top 10 by the end of the year.

[blairpaul715]

 

I thought it would be useful to think about what sort of careers these players might have by comparing the prospects to some past MLB players.  

 

For each prospect, I have listed below an MLBer that the prospect would be comparable to in the best case (i.e., if the prospect does the best that could reasonably be hoped). I also listed a player I think the prospect will most likely end up like.  Below BC="Best Case" comparison, MLC="Most-Likely Case" comparison, and DMM="Doesn't make the majors".  Let me know what you think.

 

Thorpe: BC=Mike Flanagan, MLC=DMM

 

Kepler: BC=Fred Lynn, MLC=John Lowenstein

 

Gonsalves: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=DMM

 

Walker: BC=Lee May, MLC=Mike Devereaux

 

Rogers: BC=Scott McGregor, MLC=Tippy Martinez

 

Duffey: BC=Storm Davis, MLC=Sammy Stewart

 

Turner: BC=Rick Dempsey, MLC=Dave Skaggs

 

Reed: BC=Tim Stoddard, MLC=DMM

 

Harrison: BC=Doug Decinces, MLC=Craig Worthington

 

Minier: BC=Ken Singleton, MLC=DMM

Must be a former Oriole fan.

[Wookiee of the Year]

Thanks, Seth! These sorts of articles are great for those of us (like me) who don't regularly read the daily minor league reports, but are still looking for periodic updates on how the kids on the farm are doing.

 

Here's hoping there's also a Part 3, on guys not in the Top 20 who are making some noise and seeing their stars rise.

[tobi0040]

Gonslaves is in my top ten.

[lightfoot789]

For what it is worth - Arcia had a .375 Career Minor League OBP (7 seasons).  

 

Sometimes the obvious outcome isn't always the obvious outcome.  Now he sports a .304 OBP in the MLB.  Who here would have figured that and if so why?

 

Mauer's OBP stayed similar from the minors to majors.

 

Torri spent 3 years in AA and his second season in AA resulted in a .305 OBP.

 

Sometimes the obvious outcome isn't always the obvious outcome.  Torri's first 4 years in the MLB resulted in a .316; .309; .318; & .306 OBP respectively thru those years.  He now sports a career .334 OBP.   Players evolve every year and when it clicks - BAM - you have yourself a 10+ year vet.  

 

We need patience with all these young prospects.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cgreuling]

While I think the jury is still out on Walker I just want to point out that he has shown improvement when looking at April vs May splits.

 

K%

39.7% in April (29K / 73PA), 23.6% May (13K / 55PA)

 

BABIP

.333 in April, .278 in May (when he's made contact he's been a bit unlucky so far in May)

 

OPS

.832 in April, .895 in May

 

His walk rate is abysmal but he ls making more contact and could indicate that he's making better decisions at the plate. Maybe he's Sammy Sosa without the juice but could put up Sosa's juiced numbers??

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

While I think the jury is still out on Walker I just want to point out that he has shown improvement when looking at April vs May splits.

 

K%

39.7% in April (29K / 73PA), 23.6% May (13K / 55PA)

 

BABIP

.333 in April, .278 in May (when he's made contact he's been a bit unlucky so far in May)

 

OPS

.832 in April, .895 in May

 

His walk rate is abysmal but he ls making more contact and could indicate that he's making better decisions at the plate. Maybe he's Sammy Sosa without the juice but could put up Sosa's juiced numbers??

 

If he could sustain a 23% K rate I think he gets to the big leagues, even if he only takes 40 BB a year.  But that is pretty far off his career norms.