Article: The Twins Are Running A Shifty Business

[Parker Hageman]

When Paul Molitor joined the Minnesota Twins’ coaching staff in 2014, one of his biggest initiatives was to add a robust shift program for the defense. With experience at all the infield positions over his career, Molitor recognized the advantage gained by stacking his fielders.

 

“He’s really big on shifts,” Brian Dozier said when asked about Molitor's penchant to play the odds. “He loves shifting. And it’s a part of the game now, you see it more than ever in the history of the game. I don’t know if a lot of people like it, dislike it, whatever it is, but Molly loves shifting and we’ve bought into that and especially this so you’re going to see a lot of different shifts.”In reality, the Twins were well behind the curve when it came to the use of the shift. As far back as 2004, Baseball Info Solutions was offering packages to teams to help them align their infields in shifts. Most organizations found it difficult to eschew tradition. It wasn’t until about 2009 that the Tampa Bay Rays began to see the value. More and more other teams joined the Rays. It took until 2014 for the Twins to throw their hats in the ring.

 

With Molitor now in charge of the entire on-field operation, the question was raised if he would have time to focus on that aspect of the game as he did so well as a coach last year. After all, the Twins’ analytics team lauded Molitor for using both the available data and video necessary to implement a strategy that would include the use of defensive shifts. Overnight, the Twins went from using the three-man infield shift 31 times in 2013 to 327 times in 2014.

 

Now the responsibility for positioning players in the field would be handed to third base coach Gene Glynn. Glynn is the person in the dugout charged with routing and re-routing his fielders. Sometime it is shading a bit here, bringing the outfield in or sending Trevor Plouffe on a short jog to the other side of the infield world. He is the guy at the pre-game and pre-series meetings reviewing the charts, data and scouting reports in order to help concoct a defensive game plan.

 

Now in his 11th season as a third base coach, Glynn spent several years as a pro scout in the Rays organization during the height of their Extra 2% craze. Perhaps it was experience within an analytic-influenced organization that helped convince him of the benefits of playing the percentages but when Glynn took charge as manager of the Rochester Red Wings, he brought with him the tendency to employ the shift.

 

It is a bold move, to be sure. Information on players in the minor leagues is often lacking. Some players have an extended stay but others make a brief appearance and are on to other teams or other leagues. Procuring the proper data is a challenge.

 

“Mostly it was information done on the scouting reports that came through the office of the Twins. Then they did a lot of work to get us that information,” Glynn said of the distribution of knowledge. In addition to the flow coming from the front office, Glynn and his staff would keep diligent spray charts on the league’s players. If an opposing player happened to be still with the team on the next meeting, they would incorporate those findings and move their infielders accordingly.

 

This is a more recent phenomenon in the Twins organization. When Dozier was ascending the system as a shortstop, he did not have any experience in the overshift situation. “When I was coming up we never shifted,” said Dozier. “We would shade guys. Step-pull, two steps pull, that kind of stuff. But as far as shifting we never did that.”

 

Part of the reason was the parent club's long-time lack of interest. The other part is simply the archaic data available. Deciding to shift without the proper data is like choosing to hit on an 18 because you like the song that is playing in the casino.

 

“We didn't have the statistical information or graphs that come out on where guys hit balls off righties or lefties or in two-strike situations,” Glynn said. Some of the decision to move guys around came from some gut modeling, Glynn admits, but even the basic data can help reveal a lot about a hitter. That, and truths he learned over a lifetime in the game.

 

“If you are a pull hitter, you are pretty much a pull hitter. And you live with the one or two that they happen to spray that way because they are late or the velocity is greater with some pitchers but again, we try to make that adjustment because we have that knowledge.”

 

Whereas the next generation of Twins infielders will have been exposed to the shift alignment at the minor league levels, the current crop of infielders had to get used to the new positioning in the majors. Was that a difficult task?

 

Third baseman Trevor Plouffe just smiles when he thinks about his responsibility on the overshift plays.

 

“You got a lot of time,” he said with the inflection of a man who appreciates the reprieve from ground rockets hit his direction less than ninety feet away from a batter. “So that’s a position where when I am over there just smother the ball and throw to first base.”

 

But even as the Twins ramped up their use of the big shifts in 2014 -- using the three-man infield for 327 match-ups -- Plouffe said he never got to smother a single ball in live-game action. That changed earlier this season when the first ball came his direction at Target Field as he stood on the right side of the second base bag. The former middle infielder handled the play flawlessly.

 

Several feet to his right and positioned midway between the infield and the right fielder is the usual spot for second baseman Brian Dozier. Of all the shift configurations, the second baseman may have to play the most out of position. Rather than grass infield-dirt, the batted ball now travels grass infield-dirt-grass outfield before it reaches the player. That’s just one more layer of things to go wrong. Plus, you have to make a throw from shallow right.

 

http://i.imgur.com/llCnvXW.gif

 

“The toughest thing for me is obviously you see a lot with big lefties and stuff and I’m back in shallow right field sometimes and your exact positioning is not always perfect but obviously we do it, everyone does it to get a better percentage.”

 

There are plenty of other challenges to get used to when shifting, like responsibilities when there are runners on the bases.

 

“I don't think everything is concrete when it comes to the shift,” Glynn said of the different roles of the infielders. “It's a team effort, really, some assignments might change. Is the catcher going to cover third when the shortstop goes or the third baseman help turn the double play with the ball hit to him but he's up the middle now.”

 

“One of the main things is when you are shifting is ‘know your runner’,” said Dozier. “How much time. You see me, you take double play depth you are supposed to play in and over and closer to the bag. But if Victor Martinez is up I’m almost 90 feet from the bag. That means I don’t have coverage.”

 

It takes some getting used to, said Dozier, but he has bought in to the strategy. However, as a guy who considers himself anti-sabermetrics, he acknowledges that the human element sometimes has to trump what the numbers say.

 

“You gotta have a feel for the game,” Dozier said. “If we’re playing Big Papi in right -- I’m playing him in shallow right -- but I see he has slow hands on the day, you gotta go against odds and you gotta have feel for the game where I’m not going to play him deep.”

 

Download attachment: Twins And Shift.png

The Twins have now shifted 107 times in 31 games and are on pace to obliterate last year’s useage. Has it worked? In the early going, the shifting has led to a slightly lower batting average on balls compared to the rest of the teams. On the notion that the aggressive shifting is able saving a single, Glynn summarized the team’s position on the matter in a refreshing way.

 

“If can give us an edge of saving even one hit, it's important. I'm all in when it comes to information like that.”

 

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[Otto von Ballpark]

Thanks for the research and great quotes as usual, Parker!

 

(I first read "shifty" as a similar-sounding word without the letter "f".  I think that was a frequent thread title around here the past few seasons. )

 

(Also, the fact that the Twins dramatically increased their shifting last year suggests that Gardenhire wasn't quite as resistant to change as he is often portrayed, even if it wasn't his idea.  Nice to see it ramp up further under Molitor, and hopefully we will be ahead of the curve on the next development.)

[Parker Hageman]

Also, the fact that the Twins dramatically increased their shifting last year suggests that Gardenhire wasn't quite as resistant to change as he is often portrayed, even if it wasn't his idea.

 

 

Overall, I don't think he was as resistant to change as most people believe, it still took until the point of having multiple 90-loss seasons before playing the percentages in this case. Not that it would have changed the outcome of those seasons or his ultimate dismissal but I wouldn't consider him a champion of change. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Overall, I don't think he was as resistant to change as most people believe, it still took until the point of having multiple 90-loss seasons before playing the percentages in this case. Not that it would have changed the outcome of those seasons or his ultimate dismissal but I wouldn't consider him a champion of change. 

Definitely not a champion of change.  I think the whole organization needed those multiple 90-loss seasons to change though -- and Molitor is probably in that group too.  Put him in charge of a pre-2011 Twins team and he probably does (or resists) most of the same stuff.  In any case, sorry to veer off-topic... it's definitely a trend for the Twins, and a fun one to watch.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I've seen lists of teams and the number of times they've employed the shift before.  Is that data available (and updated) anywhere publicly for the 2015 season?

[Parker Hageman]

Is that data available (and updated) anywhere publicly for the 2015 season?

 

 

Not that I am aware of. 

 

[jokin]

 

Overall, I don't think he was as resistant to change as most people believe, it still took until the point of having multiple 90-loss seasons before playing the percentages in this case. Not that it would have changed the outcome of those seasons or his ultimate dismissal but I wouldn't consider him a champion of change. 

 

Gardenhire effectively threw Molitor under the bus in his postgame comments, without calling him out by name, on more than one occasion last season when the employment of the shift resulted in a run scored against the Twins.

Edited May 13, 2015 by jokin

[Parker Hageman]

Gardenhire effectively threw Molitor under the bus in his postgame comments, without calling him out by name, on more than one occasion last season when the employment of the shift resulted in a run scored against the Twins.

 

 

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images//visual/whatshot/gardy-hicks2.gif

 

[jimbo92107]

"The era of fixed emplacements is over." General Patton

 

Statistics is doing for baseball what airplanes have done for war. Standing in the same equi-distant positions is ignoring the tendencies of a hitter. If your team wants an edge, this is one way of doing it.

 

Baseball is supposed to be a fascinating game of looking for advantages. The shift is an interesting innovation, and it will be fascinating to see how it works, how teams will try to counter it, and so on. Of course it won't always work. Pull hitters will learn to hit oppo, or bunt, or try to drive it through the shift. It's already happening every game.

 

I love it.