Article: Is The Rotation Turning Around?

[Nick Nelson]

During the last four years, it has become customary to look at the rankings for American League teams in starting pitcher ERA and find Minnesota at the bottom. In 2011 they ranked 12th. In 2012, 2013 and 2014, they ranked dead last, each time finishing with a mark above 5.00.

 

When you look at the current ranks, you find Twins starters not last, and not even in the bottom five, but ninth out of 15 AL clubs with a 4.37 ERA. That's still not great, but it represents something we have been waiting a long time to see: progress.The odd thing about the relative success of the Twins' rotation is that it hasn't been backed up by indicators that they're actually pitching all that well. Minnesota starters rank last in the AL in strikeouts, second-to-last in opponents' batting average, and 11th in ground ball rate.

 

In other words, they're not really excelling at anything.

 

This could lead one to reason that the starting corps is due for some major regression, and bound to return to its familiar standing among the league's worst. That is possible.

 

What I see, however, are signs of promise. Here are three reasons why I believe the Twins can hang around the middle of the pack in terms of starting pitcher ERA, which would be an enormous victory considering their recent history.

 

Some wacky trends are bound to normalize.

 

Over at 1500 ESPN, Derek Wetmore wrote a great column this week about why Kyle Gibson's early-season success won't sustain if he keeps pitching the way he has. That's absolutely true; walking more batters than you strike out is a recipe for disaster, and one that will catch up with Gibson soon if things don't change.

 

But things almost have to change, and we might have seen the start of it on Tuesday night when he fanned five of the last six Tigers he faced in a seven-inning gem. Gibson had entered that start with a 2.7 K/9 rate, and there is nothing in his history to suggest that was going to endure. Last year the lowest qualifying rate for any starter was 5.3 (Mark Buehrle). In the minors, Gibson averaged 8.0 K/9.

 

The story is the same for almost every Twins starter. Gibson, Mike Pelfrey, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes all have strikeout rates that are below their career norms, so as long as they're healthy, you'd expect upticks across the board.

 

It's not just strikeouts. Take a look at Hughes. Even though he's throwing strikes at a ridiculous rate similar to last year, his results have been much worse, as he's given up 56 hits and nine homers in 44 innings. Although he's been hittable and homer-prone at times in the past, it's never been to this extent. His BABIP (.326) is 25 points higher than his career norm, and his HR/FB ratio (15 percent) is sixth-highest in the AL.

 

If he keeps doing his thing, those unlucky numbers should become a bit more neutral over time.

 

They keep the ball in the yard.

 

Hughes has served up nine homers, and will likely continue to be somewhat susceptible to the long ball as an extreme fly ball pitcher. Tommy Milone coughed up five homers in 22 innings before being sent down. The remaining four Twins starters, though, have allowed only seven home runs in 120 innings.

 

For most of these guys, that's par for the course. Gibson, who creates a strong downward plane on his sinker delivered from a 6'5" frame, has allowed only 22 homers in 273 MLB innings. Pelfrey has never been homer-prone, yielding 90 in 1107 career frames. Trevor May was taken deep only four times in 18 starts at Triple-A last year. Nolasco is a wild card, given the way he's been throwing, but he has averaged less than one home run allowed per nine innings dating back to 2011.

 

When you're not giving up the big hits, you have much more margin for error.

 

Reinforcements are waiting.

 

When the Twins have needed to reach down to Triple-A for help in recent years, too often they've come up with pitchers like P.J. Walters and Pedro Hernandez who simply weren't big-league material.

 

Presently, their top option at Rochester is Milone, who has a proven MLB track record. Even with Alex Meyer completely out of sorts, there are intriguing hurlers alongside Milone in that rotation, like Taylor Rogers (2.84 ERA) and Pat Dean (1.93 ERA).

 

Meanwhile, Jose Berrios is busy in Double-A making his case for a midseason promotion to the Twins, where he would instantly become the rotation's most talented and electric arm.

 

And, of course, Ervin Santana will return from his suspension in July.

 

What do you think? Can the Twins rotation remain in the Top 10 in ERA through the end of the season, or do you expect things to unravel?

 

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[Oxtung]

Can the Twins remain in the top 10 in ERA through the end of the season...?

 

It's not good etiquette to troll your own website!!!

[theBOMisthebomb]

I feel they will stay in the top 10 in ERA but that isn't exactly reaching for the brass ring. Baby steps...

[Blake]

Nick, I think you're underestimating the contributions Mr. Nolasco will make to team ERA. A higher number is better, right?

[PeanutsFromHeaven]

I would very much appreciate a regression to the mean...if Gibson loses some of his ERA success while upping his strike out numbers, then woo! If the Twins go from abysmal to mediocre (say 11th or 12th) in ERA, then DOUBLE WOO!

[Lefty]

Gibson: K/9 is terrible, but sinkerballers aren't known to depend on the K.  K's are sexy, but W's are more important.  As long as he's getting the ground ball outs, I'm loving it.  

 

Hughes: Should improve.  

 

Pelfrey: Should not improve.  He's 2 years removed from TJ, and maybe healthy for the first time since becoming a Twin.  Maybe he's better than what we all have grown to expect out of him.

 

Trevor May: He's going to take his lumps just like Gibson did in his first full year in the bigs.  It sucks to see that, but that's what it could be for a while.  At least he's not a 10-year vet getting shelled. 

 

Nolasco:  I wish he'd disappear.  I agree with Blake.  He will KILL our team ERA.  Hopefully he can rattle off 5 straight wins so we can dump him on someone soon.

 

I like the direction of the staff a lot, other than Nolasco.  We could be building a consistent rotation that can keep us in ball games.  We still don't have that top of the rotation winner/horse to lean on in a playoff series.  Berrios?

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's going to take a lot more than five starts to convince another team to take on Ricky's contract. In all likelihood, he either pitches better or the Twins are forced to eat the contract as soon as July. At least one of Berrios and Meyer is going to need MLB rotation time this season, maybe both.

[Seth Stohs]

I think if they can get to that 11-12 range this year, that would be huge. I mean, not only were they the worst in ERA the last few seasons, but by a significant margin. If they take nearly a run off of their SP ERA, that's very encouraging. And, with an offense that is capable of scoring runs, averaging a run less given up leads to several more wins (in theory, at least). 

 

I'm not expecting a sub-3 ERA from Gibson, though I do agree that sometimes Ks are a bit overrated. I think Pelfrey can be around 4. I think Nick wrote up a great synopsis of why Hughes should be better. 

 

I'm excited for getting Ervin Santana back. he should jump right into that 2/3 spot and more people back a spot. 

 

And, as Nick mentioned, I think guys like Rogers, Berrios and Duffey can contribute if or when needed.

[halfchest]

Let's not completely write off Meyer yet either when talking about replacements.  Can't write him off after a rough first month.

[Blake]

 

I think if they can get to that 11-12 range this year, that would be huge. I mean, not only were they the worst in ERA the last few seasons, but by a significant margin. If they take nearly a run off of their SP ERA, that's very encouraging. And, with an offense that is capable of scoring runs, averaging a run less given up leads to several more wins (in theory, at least). 

 

I'm not expecting a sub-3 ERA from Gibson, though I do agree that sometimes Ks are a bit overrated. I think Pelfrey can be around 4. I think Nick wrote up a great synopsis of why Hughes should be better. 

 

I'm excited for getting Ervin Santana back. he should jump right into that 2/3 spot and more people back a spot. 

 

And, as Nick mentioned, I think guys like Rogers, Berrios and Duffey can contribute if or when needed.

Seth, who you don't mention says volumes...Nolasco. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth, who you don't mention says volumes...Nolasco. 

 

If fully healthy, he'll be fine as a middle of the rotation type. I'm wavering a little, but he's got too much of a track record of solid, mid-rotation success to think he's just done at 31.

[jimmer]

In the AL, the rotation is 13th in FIP and 14th in xFIP.

In MLB, the rotation is 25th in FIP, 28th in xFIP.

 

Both improvements.

[jmlease1]

I think we'll see an uptick in K's for Gibson; his current rate looks like the epitome of fluky. The key for him is bringing down the BBs. Despite his terrific GB ratio and ability to keep the ball in the yard, he's not going to sustain his success if he's walking 3+ guys per game. But I think it's likely that he'll up the K's a bit (probably around 5K's per 9) and trim the walks down to the 2.0-2.5 range. That'll be enough to make him a solid starter.

 

Hughes will be fine. I'm a little nervous that so many balls are flying out right now and hope this isn't a regression to the bad old Yankee days, but overall his peripherals are fine and adding Hicks to the OF rotation should help him out a bit too. 

 

May has been a bit unlucky so far, but I like his stuff. He needs a bit of rope and more turns in the rotation. He's been doing a solid job in keeping the walks down (his real problem in the minors) and can get the Ks. Being able to call on a guy like him to fill an injury/inability slot instead of turning to guys like Hernandez or some of the other clowns we've trotted out is a really big deal.

 

Nolasco still worries me, but if healthy he should be able to be a solid 4-5 rotation guy, and that's a vast improvement over the disaster of a year ago. He's going to be overpaid in my book, but if he's competent it's a huge improvement.

 

Pelfrey is the one whose success seems least sustainable to me, but he's been good so far. I'm hoping he can hold it together until Santana returns and then can get flipped to a contender for a prospect from someone who thinks he'll hold it together for the rest of the year. He's not part of the future, so I don't want him pushing May out of the rotation when Santana comes back.

 

The real kicker for the Twins (and something the national pundits keep forgetting when they mock our rotation) is how much growth the Twins rotation had to give between the last 2 years and basic competence. and getting to that basic competence really can get the Twins a big leap, a bigger one that most people are thinking of. 

 

The offense is already good. Not elite, but above average and capable. match that with a competent starting staff and things get interesting pretty quickly.

[Parker Hageman]

Pointed this out on the last No Juice Podcast: 

 

Since April 15th, after the 1-6 start, their pitching staff has compiled a 3.48 ERA (8th best in baseball) while allowing 3.6 runs per game (9th best). Will the wheels fall off?

At 5.3 K/9 in that time, they still have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. They have allowed 222 hits but managed to strand a very high 77% of base runners.

 

 

Will they regress? Sure, to some extent. You can't keep putting runners on base without allowing some run eventually. 

 

Now, the caveat as Nick pointed out is whether they can continue to avoid surrendering hard contact -- the home runs, the extra base hits -- with those runners on base. 

[Brandon]

Could the Twins resign Pelfy this offseason if he keeps this up?  Interesting debate.  If they do Nolasco is gone for sure.  Though Nolasco needs to show something soon. 

[kab21]

The best case for this rotation is that there should be fewer games where the Twins are down 3-4 early in the game.  But this still isn't a good rotation.  Pelfrey and Gibson have 5 K/9 career rates.  This is usually a 4-4.50 ERA pitcher in the best case.  Nolasco on the other hand has never pitched as well as his stats and that was when he was healthy.  I'm not optimistic for a <4 ERA.  Mays is kind of a wild card but I wouldn't expect <4 in his first season.  Hughes should be much better than he has pitched but overall I see a lot of mediocre but at least that's an improvement from previous seasons.

[South Dakota Tom]

I like the fact that Nolasco's spot and Berrios's spot in the rotation line up (you know, just in case....)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Personally, I suspect Nolasco will stay in the rotation until Santana returns.  Ricky might the guy booted in July..

[Blake]

 

If fully healthy, he'll be fine as a middle of the rotation type. I'm wavering a little, but he's got too much of a track record of solid, mid-rotation success to think he's just done at 31.

I think the Nolasco signing was an attempt to make the Pelfrey signing look like a bargain....

 

In all seriousness, I'm seeing too many excuses from Mr. Nolasco which I think contrasts with Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey, to me, seemed like he was always out there pitching his guts out even though he stunk. I just do not get the same vibe from Ricky Nolasco.

[Mike Sixel]

I thought it was too early to look at stats and draw conclusions.

 

I don't trust Nolasco or Pelfrey at all. I trust Gibson and Hughes to be good. I am unsure on May.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I thought it was too early to look at stats and draw conclusions.

 

I don't trust Nolasco or Pelfrey at all. I trust Gibson and Hughes to be good. I am unsure on May.

 

I believe you may still be confused about how you misused WAR.  

 

In any case, yeah, I'm not seeing anything thus far to see this as sustainable.  The lack of strikeouts will catch up to them and I still feel like this bullpen is an implosion waiting to happen.  That could seriously mess with the pitching staff if/when it occurs.

[Vanimal46]

We have 3 starters in the rotation that I am confident with - Gibson, May, and never thought I would say this.... Mike Pelfrey. The synopsis on Hughes is convincing that he can turn it around, but overall I think it's going to be a down year for him compared to last year. With Nolasco... The Twins should throw him a party if he makes it through 6 innings.

[kab21]

 

I thought it was too early to look at stats and draw conclusions.

 

I don't trust Nolasco or Pelfrey at all. I trust Gibson and Hughes to be good. I am unsure on May.

I am using career stats.

[kab21]

 

Good plan, it's what I do too.....

Except you used one month of WAR numerous times to show that Suzuki was one of the worst catchers in baseball.  It's not what you do.

[Mike Sixel]

^{One time, and I posted about 10 times that my opinion was  based on his career, and I pointed out about 10 times that my opinion was NOT based on this year, that this year was confirming my opinion.}

 

^{Why are we bringing this to this thread? I simply asked if it was too early to come to conclusions based on this much data.........you assumed it was about the other thread. But, when I read KLAW and every fangraphs writer, and most every thread here, we all agree it is still SSS time. Maybe, it was about that, and not some evil thought on my side.}

[nicksaviking]

I would think there is going to be some regression, but the AL Central offenses aren't very impressive.  Chicago and Cleveland have issues and KC is playing over their head.  A team BB% of 5.7% is second worst in baseball along with their team BABIP of .322 kind of implies they are due for regression as well.

 

I'd guess the Twins pitching will start looking like we expect them to, but the results might be different simply because the competition isn't great.

 

Oh, but the strikeouts are still a huge problem.

[Linus]

Here is the factor that is being underestimated in this conversation.  Ervin Santana will come back and likely be our best pitcher (depending on whether Hughes sharpens up a bit).  It will be a huge boost to add a pitcher that is better than anything we currently have and consequently dropping our 5th best starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Here is the factor that is being underestimated in this conversation.  Ervin Santana will come back and likely be our best pitcher (depending on whether Hughes sharpens up a bit).  It will be a huge boost to add a pitcher that is better than anything we currently have and consequently dropping our 5th best starter.

Santana doesn't necessarily push out our 5th best starter, if that starter is named Nolasco.  (And Santana may not be better than everyone else either, he had a 94 ERA+ last season and might be rusty from his layoff?)

[Dave T]

If you are concerned about Gibson's strikeout rate, I hope you watched yesterday's game.  Gibson struck out 5 guys in his last two innings.  Very fine off-speed stuff.  There is no doubt that Gibson is the Twins ace this year.

[Jham]

Good thing Gardy's not here, he'd be saying how we have 8 number 1 starters.  My thought is that the relative success of Gibson and May isn't all that unexpected.  

 

So far, Gibson hasn't struck out many.  He hasn't had to.  I've seen him mix in enough off speed to keep hitters off balance.  I do think his K rate will go up as he learns to trust his change up more.  But as of now, he's doing fine plugging away with fastballs.

 

Nolasco's struggles are approaching lss at this point.  Maybe he hasn't been healthy, but for some reason, I still think he'll be ok.  Hughes is experiencing a predictable regression.  That said, he doesn't have to duplicate last year to be a solid MLB starter.

 

Pelfrey is the obvious choice to regress.  Results aside, it still feels like he's eking by on smoke and mirrors, oh, and double plays.  Nevertheless, he's still way better than I expected.  

 

If we intend to trade high and receive value in return, it would be wise to field offers on Gibson and May.  Both of these pitchers would be attractive to other teams for the same reason they are attractive to the Twins.  Obviously, either would have to bring back a haul, and I think either (especially Gibson) could.