Article: Starting Pitching for 2013 and Beyond

[awstafki]

You can view this article at http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1368-Starting-Pitching-for-2013-and-Beyond

[roger]

Good review, although you didn't mention that Salcedo was dealing with an arm problem early this year and has been on the disabled list much of the year. We don't know what he will be like at Fort Myers when healthy. Also, no mention of the two lefties taken in the third and sixth rounds in 2010, Pat Dean and Logan Darnell. Dean is an all-star at Fort Myers and their top starter (after Hermsen moved up), and Darnell has been on a fast track getting to New Britain late last year. Both certainly have the potential to someday be in the Twins starting rotation. As far as how good they can be, the jury is still out.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

I think they're really going to have to go outside of the org for starting pitching. Gibson should be good but no one else can really be counted on. I'd like to see them make a splash and sign Greinke. Greinke/Gibson could be a decent 1-2. Especially since I've never seen Gibson pitch and have no idea how well he's recovered from a major surgery.

[DPJ]

I really don't think the Twins should count on anyone within the organzation for next years rotation. I know it's crazy to think the Twins can get 5 viable SP in one offseason, but once horseshoe falls outta Diamonds ass what are you left with. Craptastic Blackburn, rehabbing Gibson and a bunch of AAAA kindling arms.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I definitely woudln't count on Gibson at all. He has the potential to be a #2 guy. His peripherals last season were good, but his results were not. He's going to need a year of catching up in AAA in my opinion, as next season will likely just be a "get back to form" year. I'd say teh Twins are going to need to get at least 3 starters in free agency if competing in 2013 is on their mind, and if they want upside, they will be taking risks, and spending a lot of cash.

[Thrylos]

None of these pitchers other than Gibson, if healthy, and Hermsen in the right circumstances (in AAA doing well and the Twins have no rotation) will be with the Twins in 2013. More like 2014-5 and then additional names, like some of the 2012 draftees need to be added to the equation

[DaveW]

None of these pitchers other than Gibson, if healthy, and Hermsen in the right circumstances (in AAA doing well and the Twins have no rotation) will be with the Twins in 2013. More like 2014-5 and then additional names, like some of the 2012 draftees need to be added to the equation

I believe that is why he said for 2013 and beyond.

[Winston Smith]

Does Ryan have any history of signing starting pitching in free agency? He has signed a lot of scrap heap guys but has he ever signed a quality free agent? Is there any reason to think he might start or is it more likely he cuts payroll further next winter?

[Ultima Ratio]

In my mind we've got to extend Liriano and go after two #3-type FA SP to 'compliment' the locks of Diamond and Blackburn. But can't we just move Blacky to Long relief/spot start when we get rid of Gray. Please. Then sign 3 #3 FA SPs.

Potential 2013 FA Starting Pitchers * indicates option

Scott Baker *

Joe Blanton

Matt Cain

Fausto Carmona *

Kevin Correia

Jorge De La Rosa *

R.A. Dickey *

Scott Feldman *

Gavin Floyd *

Zack Greinke

Jeremy Guthrie

Cole Hamels

Dan Haren *

Tim Hudson *

Colby Lewis

Francisco Liriano

Kyle Lohse

Derek Lowe

Shaun Marcum

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Brandon McCarthy

Brett Myers *

Carl Pavano

Jake Peavy *

Anibal Sanchez

Jonathan Sanchez

Ervin Santana *

Joe Saunders

James Shields *

Jake Westbrook *

Randy Wolf *

Carlos Zambrano *

[DaveW]

Does Ryan have any history of signing starting pitching in free agency? He has signed a lot of scrap heap guys but has he ever signed a quality free agent? Is there any reason to think he might start or is it more likely he cuts payroll further next winter?

Well to be fair, prior to last off-season Ryan had never had a really legit budget to sign anything worthwhile in free agency, payroll jumped once Target Field was opened and Billy Smith was the money writing the checks at this point, Ryan got his first real shot this past off-season and faired pretty well I think:

 

Willingham (A) - Great signing, might be the best FA bargain in all of baseball this year. Also he made the wise choices in letting Cuddyer/Kubel walk and got picks.

 

Doumit (B+)- Another very good signing, if he can stay somewhat healthy Doumit provides a nice bat and adds depth at the C that the Twins haven't had in quite some time.

 

Carroll ( - Wasn't so sure about a two year deal, but Carroll has been a nice player who has helped stablize the MI and even 3B for a short time. He is also continuing to get on base at a .340 clip which is all you can really ask for out of a #9 hitter. If his average picks up a tad bit you are looking at a .350 OBP type guy at the bottom of the lineup.

 

Capps ©- Overpaid him a tad bit and we lost a pick because of him, however he has been an effective closer (1 b.s. so far), if he comes back healthy he could net us a decent return via trade

 

Marquis (F)- Marquis was flat out awful, at least they only paid him a small amount and only 1 year.

 

Depending on Payroll Ryan will have between 25 and 35 million to spend in the FA market next year, I trust he will be able to bring in some SP help at the very least with that. Should be interesting and it most certainly will be a very important off-season.

[old nurse]

In my mind we've got to extend Liriano and go after two #3-type FA SP to 'compliment' the locks of Diamond and Blackburn. But can't we just move Blacky to Long relief/spot start when we get rid of Gray. Please. Then sign 3 #3 FA SPs.

If the players with an option are any good their club will retain them. If not retained they would fall to the label of scrap heap. Of the remaining starters, when you look at their current contracts and assuming a raise, can you see the Twins paying that much for a top line starter? I would think the Twins are more likely to go with a scrap heap pitcher by trade or signing and hope it works out for a year or two like Pavano did. Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven had down years before a resurgence with the Twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The problem with 25-35M to spend is that quite frankly it isn't enough. To be competitive, they are going to go hard after front line pitching which will swallow up most of that. Greinke and Cain will cost an arm and a leg. No way they get both, and quite likely they don't get either one of them.... at that point you are looking at guys with some signficant risk: Liriano, Bedard, Baker, etc... good upside with all of them, but none will come cheap and there's no guarantee any will pan out.

[fetch]

Matt Cain signed a huge extension I'm pretty sure, so he's out.

 

I'd love to see them throw some money at Greinke. I think he'd be a perfect fit.

[awstafki]

Yeah Cain signed back in April for six years $127.5 million.